Iowa, Ferentz and 7.5 wins per season

RememberMurray

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I saw this on Black Hearts Gold Pants and thought it interesting in what it says about expectations. The comments are worth a look as well. Note: the article is from November, 2017.

"In 19 years as head coach at Iowa, Kirk Ferentz has won an average of 7.5 games per season. In fact, Ferentz has had a whopping five 7-win seasons, by far more than any other season victory total. One out of every four seasons, on average, Kirk Ferentz will give you a 7-win season. It’s up to you to decide if this is a virtue or a sin. For a lot of programs they’ve decided what an average of 7.5 wins means.

"On Sunday, Arizona State, a team that since 1978, the year it joined the Pac-12 conference, and the 32nd-winningest football program in America, fired their head coach, Todd Graham. Since 1978 Iowa is the 30th-winningest football program. making the success difference between these two teams, in terms of wins and losses, about .02 percentage points apart. .

"Graham was the head coach at ASU for 6 years and in those years the Sun Devils won 46 games, which so happens to be the exact number of wins Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa Hawkeyes has amassed during that same time span. Graham was 7-5 this season, same as Ferentz, yet for ASU alums it was just too much, or rather too little. And so, Todd Graham is gone. Meanwhile, Kirk Ferentz’s 7 win season? Well, it triggered lucrative clauses in his contract that have led to financial rewards for him and his staff, and made possible further bonuses and, most importantly, brought about an incredible level of security regarding his future employment. Proving that one’s man’s 7 win season is trash, but another man’s treasure chest."

https://www.blackheartgoldpants.com...-ferentz-iowa-football-contract-bhgp#comments
 

I saw this on Black Hearts Gold Pants and thought it interesting in what it says about expectations. The comments are worth a look as well. Note: the article is from November, 2017.

"In 19 years as head coach at Iowa, Kirk Ferentz has won an average of 7.5 games per season. In fact, Ferentz has had a whopping five 7-win seasons, by far more than any other season victory total. One out of every four seasons, on average, Kirk Ferentz will give you a 7-win season. It’s up to you to decide if this is a virtue or a sin. For a lot of programs they’ve decided what an average of 7.5 wins means.

"On Sunday, Arizona State, a team that since 1978, the year it joined the Pac-12 conference, and the 32nd-winningest football program in America, fired their head coach, Todd Graham. Since 1978 Iowa is the 30th-winningest football program. making the success difference between these two teams, in terms of wins and losses, about .02 percentage points apart. .

"Graham was the head coach at ASU for 6 years and in those years the Sun Devils won 46 games, which so happens to be the exact number of wins Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa Hawkeyes has amassed during that same time span. Graham was 7-5 this season, same as Ferentz, yet for ASU alums it was just too much, or rather too little. And so, Todd Graham is gone. Meanwhile, Kirk Ferentz’s 7 win season? Well, it triggered lucrative clauses in his contract that have led to financial rewards for him and his staff, and made possible further bonuses and, most importantly, brought about an incredible level of security regarding his future employment. Proving that one’s man’s 7 win season is trash, but another man’s treasure chest."

https://www.blackheartgoldpants.com...-ferentz-iowa-football-contract-bhgp#comments

It's about win distribution. We were debating whether 7-8 wins/yr as a long term average is acceptable.

If you look at Ferentz's history, about every 4-6 years he's carded an 11+ win season. If he kept handing in 6-8 win seasons every year he would have been fired long ago. But he keeps having the big year beyond Iowa expectations just often enough that he's Teflon. He gets the occasional monster win the Gophers haven't had since 2000 in Columbus. 19 years!

I would rather have the Ferentz pattern than the 21st century Gopher pattern which gives a lot of grinding averageness also netting about 6-7 wins a year.
 
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It's about win distribution. We were debating whether 7-8 wins/yr as a long term average is acceptable.

If you look at Ferentz's history, about every 4-6 years he's carded an 11+ win season. If he kept handing in 6-8 win seasons every year he would have been fired long ago. But he keeps having the big year beyond Iowa expectations just often enough that he's Teflon. He gets the occasional monster win the Gophers haven't had since 2000 in Columbus. 19 years!

I would rather have the Ferentz pattern than the 21st century Gopher pattern which gives a lot of grinding averageness also netting about 6-7 wins a year.

Yeah and Kirk manages to reach up and nail someone like an Ohio State at home once in awhile, that's some historic type memories for those folks, it really changes the perception of a coach. Somewhat like how our Wisc win this year really changed the perception of this past year dramatically.

We go because we want those memories.
 

It's about win distribution. We were debating whether 7-8 wins/yr as a long term average is acceptable.

If you look at Ferentz's history, about every 4-6 years he's carded an 11+ win season. If he kept handing in 6-8 win seasons every year he would have been fired long ago. But he keeps having the big year beyond Iowa expectations just often enough that he's Teflon. He gets the occasional monster win the Gophers haven't had since 2000 in Columbus. 19 years!

I would rather have the Ferentz pattern than the 21st century Gopher pattern which gives a lot of grinding averageness also netting about 6-7 wins a year.

Exactly I'd much rather have a 2 year stretch of winning like 11 games and then 4 over winning 7 and 8 to get to the 7.5 average. No one is going to remember those 7 and 8 win years, but those 11 win years are unheard of here.
 

It's about win distribution. We were debating whether 7-8 wins/yr as a long term average is acceptable.

If you look at Ferentz's history, about every 4-6 years he's carded an 11+ win season. If he kept handing in 6-8 win seasons every year he would have been fired long ago. But he keeps having the big year beyond Iowa expectations just often enough that he's Teflon. He gets the occasional monster win the Gophers almost never get.

I would rather have the Ferentz pattern than the 21st century Gopher pattern which gives a lot of grinding averageness also netting about 6-7 wins a year.

I agree, as far as that goes. Clearly the Ferentz level of success would be a step up from where we have been. If we achieved Ferentz-level status, we would be justified in claiming we had "changed our best".

But is it enough, long term, to allow us to consider our football program truly elite? Is it enough to move the needle in terms of, say, attendance and general interest in the community?
 


Yeah and Kirk manages to reach up and nail someone like an Ohio State at home once in awhile, that's some historic type memories for those folks, it really changes the perception of a coach. Somewhat like how our Wisc win this year really changed the perception of this past year dramatically.

We go because we want those memories.

Exactly. There hasn't been a true field-rush moment at home in my entire 38 year life as a Gopher fan. The scant few big wins have been on the road. I know we stormed it anyway because 51-14 a few years back, but I keep beating the drum about the lack of huge moments for Gopher fans. We've been shortchanged compared to every last school in the Big Ten in that regard. Even ones with worse football programs.
 

Exactly. There hasn't been a true field-rush moment at home in my entire 38 year life as a Gopher fan. The scant few big wins have been on the road. I know we stormed it anyway because 51-14 a few years back, but I keep beating the drum about the lack of huge moments for Gopher fans. We've been shortchanged compared to every last school in the Big Ten in that regard. Even ones with worse football programs.


I truly believe we will see huge wins in 2019 over Penn State and Wisconsin at TCF. And, yes... the faithful will storm the field each time.

We're on the threshold of something special here.
 

Exactly I'd much rather have a 2 year stretch of winning like 11 games and then 4 over winning 7 and 8 to get to the 7.5 average. No one is going to remember those 7 and 8 win years, but those 11 win years are unheard of here.

I'm only on board, if that is our absolute ceiling. If there was just nothing we could do about it, then yes, give me a couple 11/12 win seasons in ten years, at the cost of mediocrity the other eight.

But if it were NOT our ceiling, and maintaining a consistent level of 7/8 *regular season* wins over five years or so .... was a building block to doing something really awesome, then THAT'S what I want!!
 

I'm only on board, if that is our absolute ceiling. If there was just nothing we could do about it, then yes, give me a couple 11/12 win seasons in ten years, at the cost of mediocrity the other eight.

But if it were NOT our ceiling, and maintaining a consistent level of 7/8 *regular season* wins over five years or so .... was a building block to doing something really awesome, then THAT'S what I want!!



Exactly.

If we were to get to a level as good as Iowa currently is, but not quite as good as Wisconsin has been recently, well, that result would certainly be a step up from where we've been recently.

It's just that I don't want to stop there. I think we can aim higher, long term.

If you read the comments from the Iowa fans at the end of the Black Hearts Gold Pants article, I think a fair percentage of Hawkeye fans have "Ferentz Fatigue". Not a majority, but a fair number of them.
 



152–101 overall coaching record at (who hates) Iowa. Ferentz would average 8 wins/year during at Iowa if you take out the 1st year record of 1–10
 

152–101 overall coaching record at (who hates) Iowa. Ferentz would average 8 wins/year during at Iowa if you take out the 1st year record of 1–10

True. Also if you take out one of the 11 win seasons it would average 7. Works both ways
 

True. Also if you take out one of the 11 win seasons it would average 7. Works both ways

When trying to use stats to tell a story, it's way easier to drop the first year rather than a year in the middle as the outlier.
 




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