Is it a good thing the rest of our schedule is brutal?

Lakers612

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We have 11 games left. According to Massey, the Gophers will be favored in three of them. The rest of our games:

Illinois, @Purdue, Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, @Rutgers, @Northwestern, Purdue, @Maryland

SelectionSunday says our magic number is 12 wins to be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament.

As of right now (5-4), we are on mostly on track to hit that number, but given the difficult of our schedule the rest of the way, winning 12 games in the conference this season seems unlikely. As I said, the Gophers are favored in only 3 of the remaining 11 games the rest of the way.

The narrative surrounding this team is that (a) we are very inefficient (b) our conference schedule thus far has not been difficult.

Our remaining schedule will surely fix (b).

As of today, the Gophers have 8 Quad1 games out of the remaining 11. Eight!

The Gophers are 4-3 in Quad1 games this season. Most tournament teams are not expected to have a winning record in Quad1 games. There are many teams ahead of the Gophers in NET rankings that are well below .500 in Quad1 games.

Butler, for example, is 1-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #50.
Florida is 1-7 in Quad1 games yet ranked #36
TCU is 0-4 in Quad1 games yet ranked #29
Auburn is 0-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #25

There are 25 teams ahead of the Gophers who have 2 or less Quad1 wins. There are 21 teams ahead of the Gophers who have losing records in Quad1 games.

All of this is to say that I don't think the Gophers need close to a winning record in Quad1 games in order to safely make the tournament. Now, a lot more factors than wins or losses in Quad1 games affect a team's NET rankings. I get that. But if the selection committee does use Quadrants to help determine which teams make it and which teams don't, the Gophers may be in a good position for this important component.

Without assuming the Gophers win the other 3 non-Quad1 games (they probably should if they don't want to be nervous on Selection Sunday), the Gophers probably only need to win 2 of those 8 Quad1 games in order to have a resume worthy to make the tournament. 7-10 in Quad1 games should be enough to show that the Gophers are a Top 40 team in the country.

It's probably important to note that games that project to be Quad1 may not be Quad1 when the season is over. Iowa, for example, is ranked #28 in NET. If they fall below #30, then that game will no longer be a Quad1 game.

Anyways, could this insanely tough schedule the rest of the way be a silver lining? Our SOS will obviously get better and we have a chance to steal a few number of Quad1 games.
 

We have 11 games left. According to Massey, the Gophers will be favored in three of them. The rest of our games:

Illinois, @Purdue, Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, @Rutgers, @Northwestern, Purdue, @Maryland

SelectionSunday says our magic number is 12 wins to be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament.

As of right now (5-4), we are on mostly on track to hit that number, but given the difficult of our schedule the rest of the way, winning 12 games in the conference this season seems unlikely. As I said, the Gophers are favored in only 3 of the remaining 11 games the rest of the way.

The narrative surrounding this team is that (a) we are very inefficient (b) our conference schedule thus far has not been difficult.

Our remaining schedule will surely fix (b).

As of today, the Gophers have 8 Quad1 games out of the remaining 11. Eight!

The Gophers are 4-3 in Quad1 games this season. Most tournament teams are not expected to have a winning record in Quad1 games. There are many teams ahead of the Gophers in NET rankings that are well below .500 in Quad1 games.

Butler, for example, is 1-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #50.
Florida is 1-7 in Quad1 games yet ranked #36
TCU is 0-4 in Quad1 games yet ranked #29
Auburn is 0-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #25

There are 25 teams ahead of the Gophers who have 2 or less Quad1 wins. There are 21 teams ahead of the Gophers who have losing records in Quad1 games.

All of this is to say that I don't think the Gophers need close to a winning record in Quad1 games in order to safely make the tournament. Now, a lot more factors than wins or losses in Quad1 games affect a team's NET rankings. I get that. But if the selection committee does use Quadrants to help determine which teams make it and which teams don't, the Gophers may be in a good position for this important component.

Without assuming the Gophers win the other 3 non-Quad1 games (they probably should if they don't want to be nervous on Selection Sunday), the Gophers probably only need to win 2 of those 8 Quad1 games in order to have a resume worthy to make the tournament. 7-10 in Quad1 games should be enough to show that the Gophers are a Top 40 team in the country.

It's probably important to note that games that project to be Quad1 may not be Quad1 when the season is over. Iowa, for example, is ranked #28 in NET. If they fall below #30, then that game will no longer be a Quad1 game.

Anyways, could this insanely tough schedule the rest of the way be a silver lining? Our SOS will obviously get better and we have a chance to steal a few number of Quad1 games.


Seems like we should have a good shot at home:
Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin
and on the road:
Nebraska, Rutgers, Northwestern
Even getting 5 of 6 here would get us to 10 wins, which might well be enuf.
Not easy but very doable.
 

The other nice part is that after Illinois tomorrow, there are no opportunities for bad losses. @ Rutgers is currently a Q2 game but if they slide 12+ spots it could become Q3.
 

We have 11 games left. According to Massey, the Gophers will be favored in three of them. The rest of our games:

Illinois, @Purdue, Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, @Rutgers, @Northwestern, Purdue, @Maryland

SelectionSunday says our magic number is 12 wins to be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament.

As of right now (5-4), we are on mostly on track to hit that number, but given the difficult of our schedule the rest of the way, winning 12 games in the conference this season seems unlikely. As I said, the Gophers are favored in only 3 of the remaining 11 games the rest of the way.

The narrative surrounding this team is that (a) we are very inefficient (b) our conference schedule thus far has not been difficult.

Our remaining schedule will surely fix (b).

As of today, the Gophers have 8 Quad1 games out of the remaining 11. Eight!

The Gophers are 4-3 in Quad1 games this season. Most tournament teams are not expected to have a winning record in Quad1 games. There are many teams ahead of the Gophers in NET rankings that are well below .500 in Quad1 games.

Butler, for example, is 1-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #50.
Florida is 1-7 in Quad1 games yet ranked #36
TCU is 0-4 in Quad1 games yet ranked #29
Auburn is 0-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #25

There are 25 teams ahead of the Gophers who have 2 or less Quad1 wins. There are 21 teams ahead of the Gophers who have losing records in Quad1 games.

All of this is to say that I don't think the Gophers need close to a winning record in Quad1 games in order to safely make the tournament. Now, a lot more factors than wins or losses in Quad1 games affect a team's NET rankings. I get that. But if the selection committee does use Quadrants to help determine which teams make it and which teams don't, the Gophers may be in a good position for this important component.

Without assuming the Gophers win the other 3 non-Quad1 games (they probably should if they don't want to be nervous on Selection Sunday), the Gophers probably only need to win 2 of those 8 Quad1 games in order to have a resume worthy to make the tournament. 7-10 in Quad1 games should be enough to show that the Gophers are a Top 40 team in the country.

It's probably important to note that games that project to be Quad1 may not be Quad1 when the season is over. Iowa, for example, is ranked #28 in NET. If they fall below #30, then that game will no longer be a Quad1 game.

Anyways, could this insanely tough schedule the rest of the way be a silver lining? Our SOS will obviously get better and we have a chance to steal a few number of Quad1 games.

I see at least 6 wins. 4 bad teams and 2 big wins against really good teams. Nebraska is in a free fall. Indiana is in a free fall, Rutgers and Northwestern are terrible.
 

Anyways, could this insanely tough schedule the rest of the way be a silver lining? Our SOS will obviously get better and we have a chance to steal a few number of Quad1 games.

None of us really know yet how closely they will stick to the measures ranking us a bit too low. If they do stick close to those, then I guess our greatest hope is to have at least a 6-5 schedule over a pretty tough back half. I don't know that I'd call the remaining schedule "insanely tough." We're not good on the road but there are three road games remaining that, at least on paper, don't seem to be nearly as daunting as the first Big Ten game in January. If we could win two of those and four of the five at home, we're there. Winning 12 appears to be a bridge too far. I know the 2017 team made a great back-half run but this team has more weaknesses.
 


The rest of the schedule offers multiple chances for "Moral Victory" losses where we can improve our NET standing like the Michigan game.

Stupid ranking system!
 

If we can't beat Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, NW, regardless of home or away, then we don't deserve to go dancing this season. Get it done.

The other games will be tough, do the best you can, see what happens. Bound to win at least one of them.

Try to take one or two in the BIG tournament.
 

The rest of the schedule offers multiple chances for "Moral Victory" losses where we can improve our NET standing like the Michigan game.

Stupid ranking system!

We're going to have so many efficient losses, even Nebraska will be impressed.
 

There are at least six wins left on the board for the taking. Not anticipating all of those to fall our way. But would love to surge into March for once.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 



If we can't beat Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, NW, regardless of home or away, then we don't deserve to go dancing this season. Get it done.

The other games will be tough, do the best you can, see what happens. Bound to win at least one of them.

Try to take one or two in the BIG tournament.
Fact is, we wont beat all 5 (although I hope we do). History says so.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Fact is, we wont beat all 5 (although I hope we do). History says so.

I hope so too.

I caught the recap of Wisconsin at Nebraska last night. Looked like Nebraska stayed right with them until about half-way through the 2nd half. So even though those team's records might look well below the Gophers in the standings, I bet none of those games will be blowouts, if we do manage to win them all.

Still, win's a win.
 

Fact is, we wont beat all 5 (although I hope we do). History says so.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Good chance you are correct. Im hoping we get on a run like 2016-17 but that is asking a lot. We'll see.
 

Remaining Schedule:

Illinois w
@Purdue L
Wisconsin w
@Michigan State L
@Nebraska w
Indiana w
Michigan L
@Rutgers w
@Northwestern w
Purdue L
@Maryland L

That's a 6-5 run according to my feel for how the season is going, I consider this the mean projection for the Gophers to play out these 11 games. For the margin of error I could see them winning any of these games with the exception of at MSU and @Purdue. Unfortunately, I could also see us going 2-9 through this stretch.

Best possible: 9-2
Most Likely: 6-5
Worst possible: 2-9

Let's hope for no injuries.
 



Remaining Schedule:

Illinois w
@Purdue L
Wisconsin w
@Michigan State L
@Nebraska w
Indiana w
Michigan L
@Rutgers w
@Northwestern w
Purdue L
@Maryland L

That's a 6-5 run according to my feel for how the season is going, I consider this the mean projection for the Gophers to play out these 11 games. For the margin of error I could see them winning any of these games with the exception of at MSU and @Purdue. Unfortunately, I could also see us going 2-9 through this stretch.

Best possible: 9-2
Most Likely: 6-5
Worst possible: 2-9

Let's hope for no injuries.

My question would be, then: with that 6-5, how likely are we to get into the NCAA tournament a) with 1 win in the conf tourny, b) with no wins in the conf tourny ??
 

The only game that matters...we have to beat Illinois tonight.
It’s at home but other than that the matchup is not good for us and is even worse if Big O is still injured.

I feel better about our chances versus some of the so called good teams.
 


The only game that matters...we have to beat Illinois tonight.
It’s at home but other than that the matchup is not good for us and is even worse if Big O is still injured.

I feel better about our chances versus some of the so called good teams.

Exactly. If the fans look ahead and discuss future games at all, we will lose tonight. Thanks for keeping us in check.
 

The only game that matters...we have to beat Illinois tonight.
It’s at home but other than that the matchup is not good for us and is even worse if Big O is still injured.

I feel better about our chances versus some of the so called good teams.

Call me crazy, but I liked the way Stockman played vs Iowa, and would like to see if he can repeat that tonight.
 


The only game that matters...we have to beat Illinois tonight.
It’s at home but other than that the matchup is not good for us and is even worse if Big O is still injured.

I feel better about our chances versus some of the so called good teams.

This is a fan message board, it's totally fine for us to look ahead to the remaining games on the schedule.
 

My question would be, then: with that 6-5, how likely are we to get into the NCAA tournament a) with 1 win in the conf tourny, b) with no wins in the conf tourny ??

6-5 to close out the reg season and they would be locks.
 

Call me crazy, but I liked the way Stockman played vs Iowa, and would like to see if he can repeat that tonight.

Nothing crazy about that. He did play well. Although the Georgian freshman center was very effective against us last time, he's not quite the load that Iowa's Garza is and I think Stockman would be able to match up a little better defensively against him.
 




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