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  1. #1

    Default Rating China’s retaliation in the trade war: ‘On a scale of 1-10, it’s an 11’

    So much winning ...


    Rating China’s retaliation in the trade war: ‘On a scale of 1-10, it’s an 11’

    “Overnight, Chinese government retaliated against new U.S. tariffs, and it’s designed to get the President’s attention,” Cowen analyst Chris Krueger said in a note to investors on Monday.

    A Morgan Stanley team of analysts said “investors should behave as if further escalation will happen in 2019.” If that escalation does come, the firm estimated that a global economy recession will come in the next 9 months.

    China responded on Monday in two ways to President Donald Trump announcing the U.S. will add 10% tariffs to $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

    First, China’s central bank allowed its currency the yuan to fall “below 7 to the dollar, which is a psychologically significant threshold,” Krueger said.

    Second, Krueger noted that the Chinese told state-controlled buyers “to halt all purchases of U.S.agricultural imports. ”

    “It looks like those rotting soybeans will continue to rot, and is a tough hit to Midwestern (Trump states) farm interests after the President promised relief,” Krueger said.

    “There is increased anecdotal evidence that the Chinese government is tightening its overview of foreign firms, including through creation of a “undesirable entities’ list and practices,” Krueger added.

    Read complete article at: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/cowe...its-an-11.html


    China says US farmers may never regain market share lost in trade war

    The country has ‘basically stopped’ importing soybeans from United States, according to vice agriculture minister

    China can easily find other countries to buy agricultural goods from instead of the US, its vice agriculture minister said, warning that American farmers could permanently lose their share of the Chinese market as a result of the trade war.

    “Many countries have the willingness and they totally have the capacity to take over the market share the US is enjoying in China. If other countries become reliable suppliers for China, it will be very difficult for the US to regain the market,” Han Jun told official Xinhua news agency in an interview on Friday.

    Read complete article at: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...n-market-share


    ‘Tariff policies have been doing financial harm to farmers’

    Although farmers have collectively been receiving billions in market facilitation payments from the USDA, Stafslien sees these payments as “band-aids.”

    The Trump administration announced in July that it would be providing an additional $16 billion in aid to farmers affected by the trade war. “It’s certainly proof that the administration recognizes their tariff policies have been doing financial harm to farmers and rural America,” Stafslien said.

    Michelle Ziesch, a North Dakota farmer who grows beef cattle, corn, soybeans, and other crops, said she was “very disappointed” by the latest development. “We were hoping that by now, the trade talks would be continuing and hopefully making some progress,” she told Yahoo Finance. “So that’s a pretty big setback.”

    Read complete article at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trade...171843698.html
    Last edited by Cruze; 08-05-2019 at 02:33 PM.


  2. #2

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    How did China react? They devalued their own currency. Basically- they are going to absorb the cost of the tariffs. For a while, but they cannot afford to do it long term...

    Last edited by bga1; 08-05-2019 at 02:58 PM.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by bga1 View Post
    How did China react? They devalued their own currency. Basically- they are going to absorb the cost of the tariffs. For a while, but they cannot afford to do it long term...

    Lol at believing China is paying for the tariffs and not us. Even bigger lol that you use a tweet from Trump to prove it. God you’re beyond stupid.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Page View Post
    Lol at believing China is paying for the tariffs and not us. Even bigger lol that you use a tweet from Trump to prove it. God you’re beyond stupid.
    Obviously you don't follow the economy. Prices for Chinese imports did not skyrocket, or even rise in the year since tariffs were implemented. On the contrary, they fell year over year slightly, so the US consumer is NOT paying the tariffs. That's actual data that you can look up. The US consumer will also not pay for the new tariffs. China is devaluing their currency in order to avoid higher prices for the US consumer. That's currency manipulation, which is actually against WTO rules. The net result is the Chinese consumer, not the US consumer, is paying the tariffs.

    China is in an economic free-fall due to the tariffs. Their stock market crashed & is only staying afloat due to government subsidies. Foreign investment in China has come to a halt. Many existing foreign companies are leaving China. The rest are drawing up plans to leave & relocate to the US, or other countries that will be tariff free.

    The only plays China have are firing off rocket from North Korea & funding US politicians/media to promote their agenda over the United States, in hopes Trump can be defeated in 2020 & they can get back to the business of bribing mainstream D & R politicians to betray the United States.
    If at first you don’t succeed, then maybe you just suck. – Kenny Powers

  5. #5
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    CRG is correct. I hope Trump holds the line and doesn’t cave. If we don’t confront China now, while our economy is strong, we never will.

    I urge folks to read Michael Pillsbury’s book on China.
    https://www.amazon.com/Hundred-Year-...gateway&sr=8-1
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by Donovan; 08-07-2019 at 07:11 PM.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Costa Rican Gopher View Post
    The only plays China have are firing off rocket from North Korea & funding US politicians/media to promote their agenda over the United States, in hopes Trump can be defeated in 2020 & they can get back to the business of bribing mainstream D & R politicians to betray the United States.
    This is what I was thinking as well; the Chinese meddling in the election are probably the best hope the Dems have in 2020. Howie and cinnedumb should be cheering on the Chinese like crazy
    - Respect is the ultimate currency

  7. #7

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    I’m not aware of any Chinese market crash. But there will be. They are going to have one hell of a collapse.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  8. #8
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    In real-world terms, the tariffs are having an impact on US Farmers - including a lot of MN Farmers who used to sell hogs and corn to China. Yes, the Trump administration is providing the Market Facilitation program to help compensate, but a lost market is a lost market. Farmers would rather have the market and not have to receive the MFP payments.

    From an article in the Mpls Star-Tribune:

    Chinese tariffs of 25% on soybeans — levied in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and other metals last July — had been the heaviest blow dealt to U.S. farmers in the trade war. Minnesota is the third-largest producer of soybeans, behind Iowa and Illinois, and about one-fourth of all U.S. soybeans were typically exported to China before the trade war. By dint of access to shippers on the Pacific coast, many of Minnesota’s soybeans are grown for the Chinese market.

    Tariffs on pork have also hurt U.S. farmers, but some pork exports were getting through. The latest turn in the trade war casts doubt that even that will happen.

    Chinese imports of U.S. farm products last year dropped from $19.5 billion in 2017 to $9.1 billion in 2018, according to the American Farm Bureau. Soybean prices fell last summer and never recovered. They’ve dipped again in the past week with the latest escalation of the trade war, down 36 cents to $8.50 per bushel on Tuesday.

  9. #9
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    Was going to paste this tweet, but have no idea how to do it. So, here’s the link. Pretty interesting thread. If I had assets in the Chinese markets, I’d be selling them.

    https://twitter.com/jkylebass/status...279557125?s=21
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by Donovan; 08-08-2019 at 12:07 AM.

  10. #10

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    The rumors of China's impending economic demise have been greatly exaggerated?


    Forbes: The Myths About China's Economic Slowdown

    China’s real GDP growth peaked in 2007 at 14.2%, and has been trending downward since. By 2017, it dropped to 6.8%. That much is clear and unmistakable. The problem is how to interpret the slowdown, especially in light of some recent economic indicators that have been widely used to project where the Chinese economy is heading. Here we quickly enter into the realm of myth making.

    The first common myth is that the recent decline of the Chinese stock market, which has shed around 20% of its value since the beginning of the year, signals that the slowing economy is being affected by the trade war and therefore heading toward deeper troubles. The fact of the matter is that, unlike the U.S., China’s stock market has few significant links with the real economy.

    While the issuance of stocks is the primary source of raising capital for businesses in the U.S. and Western Europe, Chinese businesses continue to rely heavily on bank lending. Up to three quarters of China’s business investment has been financed by bank loans, versus less than 20% in the U.S., according to estimates by the McKinsey Global Institute. In this regard, the stock market is peripheral in China. Furthermore, it is estimated that 80% of the trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is accounted for by small retail and individual traders, in contrast with institutional traders’ whopping 90% volume share in the U.S.

    A second myth is that slowing economic growth in China has led to the weakening of its currency, which in turn portends more difficulties ahead. Pundits who are bearish on China pen headlines using terms like “plunging Chinese yuan” and “troubled economy” in the same breath. The fact of the matter is that it is not just the Chinese yuan that has declined against the U.S. dollar.

    Taking a broader and more meaningful time frame of the last one year from August 1, 2017 to August 1, 2018, the Chinese yuan declined by 1.4% against the U.S. dollar, alongside with the decline of the euro by 1.0%, the Japanese yen by 1.3% and the Indian rupee by 6.5%, according to data from Haver Analytics. Framed as such, the decline of the yuan’s exchange value against the U.S. dollar is entirely unexceptional. Putting the spotlight exclusively on the Chinese yuan creates a completely misleading diagnosis. As I argued in an earlier article, much of the decline of the major currencies against the U.S. dollar is due to the rise of U.S. dollar driven by nothing more than global economic uncertainty because of the U.S.-initiated trade war.

    Finally, there is the myth of an impending crash of the Chinese economy due to its debt overhang. China’s debt level had indeed surged in the aftermath of the global financial crisis when the government opened the spigot to flood the economy with bank lending. It helped holding up China’s economic growth, and in so doing provided much needed support to the global economy as well.

    What is overlooked is the fact that virtually all China’s debt is domestic, and most of it is owed by state-owned enterprises to state-owned banks. In other words, most debts are owed by one part of the government to another. Coupled with China’s massive foreign reserves, this makes a debt crisis like that of Greece impossible.

    These are some (by no means all) of the common myths about China’s economic slowdown. What, then, is the reality of China’s economic slowdown?

    Stay tuned.



    Yuwa Hedrick-Wong: I am the Chief Economics Commentator at Forbes Asia, and a Visiting Scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.

    Read complete article at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/yuwahed.../#497805985d55
    Last edited by Cruze; 08-08-2019 at 06:44 AM.

  11. #11

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    It's good to see that China has a good friend in Cruze. Similar ideologies so it makes sense.

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  13. #13

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    The good news is that the global economy is not at all interconnected and the collapse of the Chinese economy wouldn't at all trigger a global recession.

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by justthefacts View Post
    The good news is that the global economy is not at all interconnected and the collapse of the Chinese economy wouldn't at all trigger a global recession.
    The advantage China has in their negotiations is fear. If people fear them and think they will let everything melt down if things don't go their way, then China wins. In that case they can continue to abuse IP rights, they can continue to be human rights abusers (hey, I thought you were a compassionate human rights guy...maybe you are a racist and you don't care about the rights of Asians?) and they can continue to cheat in every other way. The good news is the Chinese politicians are now rich and they like it that way. They will do what is needed to stay rich. They have no interest in letting the world economy melt down because so then do their lavish life styles. We have way more leverage than China. We are their customer. The only problem is that our own people are weak minded, like you are.

  15. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by bga1 View Post
    The advantage China has in their negotiations is fear. If people fear them and think they will let everything melt down if things don't go their way, then China wins. In that case they can continue to abuse IP rights, they can continue to be human rights abusers (hey, I thought you were a compassionate human rights guy...maybe you are a racist and you don't care about the rights of Asians?) and they can continue to cheat in every other way. The good news is the Chinese politicians are now rich and they like it that way. They will do what is needed to stay rich. They have no interest in letting the world economy melt down because so then do their lavish life styles. We have way more leverage than China. We are their customer. The only problem is that our own people are weak minded, like you are.
    Serious question: when does it make sense to play hardball and when does it make sense to playcate? NK abuses human rights, and abuses IP rights, and conducts missile tests, and has next to no leverage over us, and yet all we do is buddy up to them. Europe doesn't abuse human rights, doesn't abuse IP rights, doesn't conduct missle tests, has some leverage over us and all we seem to do is play hardball with them.

    The big advantage China has is that they're not going to face re-election in 15 months in a potentially difficult economy. Don't think they're not considering that.

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