Expectations Going Forward

John Galt

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I've heard posters say that they expect the Gophers to win 8-10 games every year from here on. I hope like crazy this can actually happen. If it does, I propose that we build a statue of PJ and crown him as the greatest Gopher coach of the modern era. To put this into context, we've been in the Big Ten since 1953, so we have had 65 seasons of football in what I'll call the "modern era" against our rivals. We played fewer games decades ago, but if we view an 8-4 regular season as successful, our winning percentage would be 67%. So if 8 wins is the baseline for what PJ needs to achieve, how many seasons have we pulled off a 67% winning percentage or higher since 1953? 8 seasons. Or 12% of the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Minnesota_Golden_Gophers_football_seasons

I love that we are setting expectations higher than we ever have for previous coaches, but here's my question. Is it reasonable to expect PJ to win at least 8 games every season, given that in the past 65 years of Gopher football, that level of winning has historically happened 12% of the time?
 

I don't expect another loss in my lifetime.

Realistically though I suspect we're still in the awkward phase of each week having the potential to kick ass or get our ass kicked regardless of what we think "should" happen.
 

To be clear, PJ has some advantages with regards to facilities that other coaches haven't. I expect more of him. But even winning 8+ games every 4 years would be double the amount of success that we have had over the past 65 years.
 

Reviews such as this always make it seem like there is something in the water here that limits a college football team in this state to (in this case) a 12% chance of achieving 8 wins. What Fleck can achieve here isn't limited to how the team played in 1954, in my opinion. If this same review had been done in 1953, it could be said "The Gophers are a traditional power. Why would anyone think they wouldn't continue to be a contender in the Big 10 every year forever?"
 

I've heard posters say that they expect the Gophers to win 8-10 games every year from here on. I hope like crazy this can actually happen. If it does, I propose that we build a statue of PJ and crown him as the greatest Gopher coach of the modern era. To put this into context, we've been in the Big Ten since 1953, so we have had 65 seasons of football in what I'll call the "modern era" against our rivals. We played fewer games decades ago, but if we view an 8-4 regular season as successful, our winning percentage would be 67%. So if 8 wins is the baseline for what PJ needs to achieve, how many seasons have we pulled off a 67% winning percentage or higher since 1953? 8 seasons. Or 12% of the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Minnesota_Golden_Gophers_football_seasons

I love that we are setting expectations higher than we ever have for previous coaches, but here's my question. Is it reasonable to expect PJ to win at least 8 games every season, given that in the past 65 years of Gopher football, that level of winning has historically happened 12% of the time?

I don't know if "expect" is the right word. But I do feel confident that if he hovers around the 7-9 win mark for several years that PJ will eventually get fired, just like Mason did.

The U has made an unprecedented (for us) financial commitment to football with a high coach salary and the new facilities. The U should expect some return on that investment.

I really do hope PJ is good enough where we want to build a statue of him.
 


I don't know if "expect" is the right word. But I do feel confident that if he hovers around the 7-9 win mark for several years that PJ will eventually get fired, just like Mason did.

The U has made an unprecedented (for us) financial commitment to football with a high coach salary and the new facilities. The U should expect some return on that investment.

I really do hope PJ is good enough where we want to build a statue of him.

Dude you have to be kidding me..7-9? That many wins per year would essentially make him the best gophers football coach since we won titles in the 50's and would probably mean to be that he would be the most successful modern Gophers football coach in the history of the program. If PJ can average even 7.5 wins over the next 5 years he will still be on contract without a doubt. If he averages something like 8+ over the next 5...we will probably be building a statue in 2025
 

I don't know if "expect" is the right word. But I do feel confident that if he hovers around the 7-9 win mark for several years that PJ will eventually get fired, just like Mason did.

The U has made an unprecedented (for us) financial commitment to football with a high coach salary and the new facilities. The U should expect some return on that investment.

I really do hope PJ is good enough where we want to build a statue of him.

If he hovers around 7-9 wins for 10 years and we never win the conference, he will eventually be fired. I agree with you.

If he hovers around 7-9 wins for 10 years and we go to a Rose Bowl (even once), PJ will essentially have a lifetime contract and a statue.
 

If he hovers around 7-9 wins for 10 years and we never win the conference, he will eventually be fired. I agree with you.

If he hovers around 7-9 wins for 10 years and we go to a Rose Bowl (even once), PJ will essentially have a lifetime contract and a statue.

You essentially elaborated further than I did but yeah I'm with you. He basically has to average above 7 a year and get to a good bowl game a couple of times in 10 years.
 

It depends on who we play in non-conf and from the East, of course.

As far as the West goes, for now: Iowa, Madison, and Nebraska are NOT Michigan, Ohio St, and Penn St. And Purdue is NOT Michigan St. .... for now. It might get that way in a few years, we will see.

So that being said, I absolutely do not think it is unreasonable to expect 4-2 versus the West. That means sweeping 3-0 at home and snagging one 1-2 on the road, or it means 2-1 at home and 2-1 on the road, depending the road slate.


The East of course depends on who we play. If we get Mich, Mich St, OSU, or PSU ... that decreases the odds. Like to think we beat Rutgers most of the time and are evenly matched vs Maryland most of the time.

Non-conf, at least in the next couple of years have no P5 teams. Although BYU comes here in 2020. That will be like playing a difficult Mountain West team.


So that said, is it as equally reasonable to go 4-2 against non-conf + East? Would like to think 3-0 against non-conf. Then just need 1-2 against the east, at least one of which is guaranteed to be a home game, but it's a roll of the dice against who (Penn St in 2019, for example).
 
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If he hovers around 7-9 wins for 10 years and we never win the conference, he will eventually be fired. I agree with you.

If he hovers around 7-9 wins for 10 years and we go to a Rose Bowl (even once), PJ will essentially have a lifetime contract and a statue.

Not saying this will be wrong at all ...... but man that feels kinda droopy.

Why can't we do what Wisconsin has done?? Why is that impossible?
 

No one involved in the PJ Fleck hiring will be satisfied with an average of 7 wins per year, especially PJ. I fully expect the Gophers to start winning 8-11 games per year. I have huge expectations for this team going forward, the best is yet to come!
 

I expect Fleck to lead us to the Big Ten Championship game during his tenure at the U.

Go Gophers!!
 

Everyone gets hung up on the number of wins as the measuring stick for coaches and I get it to a degree because it is a tangible number that can be looked at. To me I look at it like this.

If PJ makes us into consistent contenders in the West and wins the division at least once every 5 years or so he will be a massive success and will be able to stay as long as he wants to.

If we continue to be an also ran in the conference he will get fired and they will bring in someone else.

As for current expectations and future expectations....this team should be legitimately in the mix for the West next season even if we don't ultimately end up winning it. Starting in 2020, assuming we stay on our current trajectory, we should hopefully be viewed as one of the better programs in the West and a true threat to win the division year in and year out.
 



OK. Over the last ten seasons, Wisconsin has averaged 9.6 regular season wins.

Not sure if people are counting a bowl win here, or not. If they are .... I mean we already went 7-6 last season. That's good enough?? No.

If not, then 7-5 would be a nice step forward, but still feel pretty middling. But then even going up to averaging 9 regular season wins a year would be pretty huge. So it's a sharp gradient.
 

I also don’t like the word “expect”, but I am confident we’ll win 8-10 next year. And I truly believe if Fleck can point to that level of success... we’ll get another jump in recruiting so we are on the edge of top 25 classes... If we can hit 9-10 wins two years in a row, I am confident PJ can be a top 15 or top 20 recruiter.
 

Is it reasonable to expect PJ to win at least 8 games every season, given that in the past 65 years of Gopher football, that level of winning has historically happened 12% of the time?

We won 8 games in three of the four seasons before he got here...that level of winning happened 75% of the time.
 

We won 8 games in three of the four seasons before he got here...that level of winning happened 75% of the time.

It also happened 100% of the time in 2016 and 2003. You seem to be cherry picking results for some reason. Would love to hear the rationale for just picking those 4 seasons?

I also said in my initial post the threshold I used was winning 67% of games in a season, or winning at least 2 out of 3 games. We've only accomplished that twice since 2000, as 8-5 doesn't meet the criteria.
 

We won 8 games in three of the four seasons before he got here...that level of winning happened 75% of the time.

Ya, for me the baseline is the Kill/Tracy era. We were on a streak of 5 straight bowl seasons. We won 8 games, 8 games, 6 games and 9 games the last 4 seasons they were here.
They did not have the facilities and made one third the money. If you are paying somebody $3.5 million, if they utter E-L-I-T-E routinely, then you gotta win 8 games a year just not to go backwards.

So, I think PJ needs to average 8 wins per year at a minimum....without question. PJ and Coyle set expectations higher than that.

I'd like to think PJ agrees with me and expects to do better.

For me: the rationale of using the last four seasons of the Kill/Tracy era is because we were horrible before they got here and they built the program to that level. Seth Green and the JC transfer QB would have sustained that level. We hired PJ to go beyond that level. We gave him more resources to do so.
 
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I'm confident we win 8+ next year, and more than 10 at least once in the next 3 years. I'd be willing to put down a large bet on that (assuming PJ stays).
 

I don't expect another loss in my lifetime.

Realistically though I suspect we're still in the awkward phase of each week having the potential to kick ass or get our ass kicked regardless of what we think "should" happen.

I don’t know what that says about your lifetime
 

Dude you have to be kidding me..7-9? That many wins per year would essentially make him the best gophers football coach since we won titles in the 50's and would probably mean to be that he would be the most successful modern Gophers football coach in the history of the program. If PJ can average even 7.5 wins over the next 5 years he will still be on contract without a doubt. If he averages something like 8+ over the next 5...we will probably be building a statue in 2025

Hovering around 7-9 wins for a long time is basically what Mason did, and pretty much what Kill/Claeys did. It got Mason fired.
With the higher salary and new facilities, 9 wins better not be the ceiling. Like others have said, I don't think that's Coyle's or PJ's expectations either.
 

I'm pretty sure that's not what Fleck would consider elevating this program, and it's clearly not Coyle's expectation. The U did not make this level of investment and commitment to bump along at 5-8 regular season wins. Full stop.
 


It also happened 100% of the time in 2016 and 2003. You seem to be cherry picking results for some reason. Would love to hear the rationale for just picking those 4 seasons?

I also said in my initial post the threshold I used was winning 67% of games in a season, or winning at least 2 out of 3 games. We've only accomplished that twice since 2000, as 8-5 doesn't meet the criteria.

Honestly can't believe (I really don't) you need this explained. He picked it because it immediately proceeded Fleck's hire. That was the baseline when Coyle made the change, and he made it very clear that he is expecting a higher level of success on the field with Fleck's hire. If Fleck continues along at 5-8 win range, recent recruiting success will quickly dry up, ST sales will continue to decline, as will TCF attendance.
 

Not saying this will be wrong at all ...... but man that feels kinda droopy.

Why can't we do what Wisconsin has done?? Why is that impossible?

Huh? I never said it was impossible.

I was merely fleshing out the point that winning 7-9 games per year, for a decade, would be treated much differently if he mixed in just 1 Rose Bowl.

I was not predicting what I thought would happen.

That said, I'd take 8 wins per year and 1 Rose Bowl by 2030. I'd take it in a heart beat.
 

I don't think it's realistic to expect to have a run like Wisconsin has had over the past 15 years or even the past 30 years. They've been consistently very good, particularly in this century.

But I do think it's realistic to be Iowa. Eight wins, seven wins, eight wins, ROSE BOWL. Eight wins, six wins, eight wins ORANGE BOWL. Lesser New Year's Day bowls mixed in. Iowa is more cyclical, but solid most years and an occasional down year.

Wisconsin and Iowa didn't have traditions that were any better than ours when they started winning. But that's what building a program is about.
 

It also happened 100% of the time in 2016 and 2003. You seem to be cherry picking results for some reason. Would love to hear the rationale for just picking those 4 seasons?

I also said in my initial post the threshold I used was winning 67% of games in a season, or winning at least 2 out of 3 games. We've only accomplished that twice since 2000, as 8-5 doesn't meet the criteria.

I never know quite how to rank bowl/championship game wins and losses.

Like, let's say we went 9-3 and played in the Big 10 championship game. Let's say we lost to Ohio State and then went on to lose a NY bowl.

We finished that season 9-5. That would not fit your criteria (winning 67% of the games). Same team goes 9-3 and doesn't make the Big 10 championship game and loses in the bowl, that team fits your criteria.

I completely understand picking something like winning percentages and I don't necessarily disagree with it, but it does seem to arbitrarily punish a team that loses in a championship game.
 

I don't think it's realistic to expect to have a run like Wisconsin has had over the past 15 years or even the past 30 years. They've been consistently very good, particularly in this century.

But I do think it's realistic to be Iowa. Eight wins, seven wins, eight wins, ROSE BOWL. Eight wins, six wins, eight wins ORANGE BOWL. Lesser New Year's Day bowls mixed in. Iowa is more cyclical, but solid most years and an occasional down year.

Wisconsin and Iowa didn't have traditions that were any better than ours when they started winning. But that's what building a program is about.

Starting with his 3rd season, Ferentz has averaged more than 8 wins a season.
 

I don’t expect 8 every year - I would settle for 8* as well.


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