John Galt
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Two of our opponents make the list: Fresno St and Northwestern - https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ball-teams-that-will-regress-the-most-in-2019
One of the only ways to remain a factor in college football year after year is to get old and stay old. You want senior leadership on the roster, but too much of it means a bit of a rebuilding year the following season.
And rebuilding is just a fancy word for regression—unless you get lucky and have a bunch of freshmen or sophomores break out a year ahead of schedule. We're not saying these eight teams are going to stink next year. Each one will likely be expected to win at least six games and make a return to a bowl game. But due to roster turnover, each of these teams should be expected to win at least two fewer games in 2019 than they won in 2018.
Fresno:
In 2016, Fresno State suffered 11 losses. Over the past two seasons, the Bulldogs have averaged 11 wins, including winning both of their bowl games. Were it not for Bill Clark's work reviving a UAB program that was defunct for two years, Jeff Tedford would have gotten much more deserved love for national coach of the year.
But now comes the hard part: replacing most of the offense.
Four of Fresno State's starting offensive linemen are seniors. So are five of the seven wide receivers who caught a pass this season, as well as two of the four tight ends. And worst of all, QB Marcus McMaryion will graduate after throwing for 3,629 yards with a 25-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio this season.
They do get to hang onto running backs Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims, and the top tight end (Jared Rice) ought to return as a fifth-year senior. At least there are a few building blocks there. That's still a lot of roster turnover, though.
And that's just the offense.
The Bulldogs are also losing three of their seven leading tacklers, one of which (Anthoula Kelly) was a cornerback who had four interceptions and 16 passes defended this season. The other two—outside linebackers George Helmuth and James Bailey—both ranked top three on the team in tackles for loss and sacks.
Northwestern:
Northwestern went 0-3 in nonconference play and got five of its eight Big Ten wins by a single-possession margin. Even without accounting for roster changes, some regression to the mean seems inevitable for one of the luckiest division winners in power-conference history.
There is quite a bit of attrition, though.
QB Clayton Thorson and top WR Flynn Nagel are both graduating, meaning the Wildcats need to replace both parts of their best offensive strike. While they're at it, three starting offensive linemen were redshirt seniors, so they'll be gone, too. (Maybe that will be addition by subtraction, though, because this unit gave up a ton of sacks and didn't do much run blocking, either.)
One of the only ways to remain a factor in college football year after year is to get old and stay old. You want senior leadership on the roster, but too much of it means a bit of a rebuilding year the following season.
And rebuilding is just a fancy word for regression—unless you get lucky and have a bunch of freshmen or sophomores break out a year ahead of schedule. We're not saying these eight teams are going to stink next year. Each one will likely be expected to win at least six games and make a return to a bowl game. But due to roster turnover, each of these teams should be expected to win at least two fewer games in 2019 than they won in 2018.
Fresno:
In 2016, Fresno State suffered 11 losses. Over the past two seasons, the Bulldogs have averaged 11 wins, including winning both of their bowl games. Were it not for Bill Clark's work reviving a UAB program that was defunct for two years, Jeff Tedford would have gotten much more deserved love for national coach of the year.
But now comes the hard part: replacing most of the offense.
Four of Fresno State's starting offensive linemen are seniors. So are five of the seven wide receivers who caught a pass this season, as well as two of the four tight ends. And worst of all, QB Marcus McMaryion will graduate after throwing for 3,629 yards with a 25-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio this season.
They do get to hang onto running backs Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims, and the top tight end (Jared Rice) ought to return as a fifth-year senior. At least there are a few building blocks there. That's still a lot of roster turnover, though.
And that's just the offense.
The Bulldogs are also losing three of their seven leading tacklers, one of which (Anthoula Kelly) was a cornerback who had four interceptions and 16 passes defended this season. The other two—outside linebackers George Helmuth and James Bailey—both ranked top three on the team in tackles for loss and sacks.
Northwestern:
Northwestern went 0-3 in nonconference play and got five of its eight Big Ten wins by a single-possession margin. Even without accounting for roster changes, some regression to the mean seems inevitable for one of the luckiest division winners in power-conference history.
There is quite a bit of attrition, though.
QB Clayton Thorson and top WR Flynn Nagel are both graduating, meaning the Wildcats need to replace both parts of their best offensive strike. While they're at it, three starting offensive linemen were redshirt seniors, so they'll be gone, too. (Maybe that will be addition by subtraction, though, because this unit gave up a ton of sacks and didn't do much run blocking, either.)