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  1. #61

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    This article does a good job explaining it, but the opponent ranking needed for a win or loss to count as Quad 1 vs Quad 2 changes depending on where the game was played. So you shouldn't have to apply any sort of correction and in theory, all Quad 1 wins are better than all Quad 2 wins, regardless of location.

    Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.
    Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.
    Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.
    Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.

    Explanation article: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...balls-new-tool


  2. #62

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    Quote Originally Posted by builtbadgers View Post
    By any metric we have two horrible losses to BC and Illinois as it stands now. Those teams play poorly, lose alot and manhandled us.
    Illinois has talent. They beat Maryland as well. Boston College does as well, and they have beaten a couple of good teams. They are still teams with talent that can put a good game together. Wisconsin has lost to us, goes entire halves of games scoring less than 15 points, and somehow they are efficient - they just play slow.


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  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some guy View Post
    About 15 years ago a bunch of internet fanboys started liking computer rankings better than common sense. And here we are.
    BINGO!!!!


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  4. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by tjgopher View Post
    NC State (16-4) is probably the other biggest high major outlier. At least they have a better record than Gators and a win over Auburn (although that is growing less impressive).

    NC STATE:

    currently: #107 in RPI with a #277 SOS. Wouldn't even sniff an NIT berth in old system.

    currently: #29 in NET whipping up on inferior teams and playing with game-long "efficiency"
    currently: #32 in KenPom
    More examples of the deeply flawed NET rankings.


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  5. #65

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    So lets take a look at Iowa st vs Minnesota resume

    Both are 15-5 (4-3 vs q1, 1-2 vs q2, 4-0 vs q3, and 6-0 vs q4)
    Average net win for iowa st is 151 for the gophers 133
    Average net loss for iowa st 38 for the gophers 59
    strength of schedule iowa st 37 for the gophers 59
    Iowa st is 3-1 in nuetral games (0-1 vs quad 1/2) gophers are 4-0 (2-0 vs quad 1/2)
    Iowa st is 3-3 on road(all vs quad 1) gophers are 1-4 away (1-2 vs quad 1)

    oh btw iowa st has a net rating of 15 while minnesota is 51

    so quality road wins, strength of schedule (which really their isnt that big of a difference there)

    Goes to show how much importance they really are putting in efficency numbers

  6. #66

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    Quote Originally Posted by schlegs View Post
    So lets take a look at Iowa st vs Minnesota resume

    Both are 15-5 (4-3 vs q1, 1-2 vs q2, 4-0 vs q3, and 6-0 vs q4)
    Average net win for iowa st is 151 for the gophers 133
    Average net loss for iowa st 38 for the gophers 59
    strength of schedule iowa st 37 for the gophers 59
    Iowa st is 3-1 in nuetral games (0-1 vs quad 1/2) gophers are 4-0 (2-0 vs quad 1/2)
    Iowa st is 3-3 on road(all vs quad 1) gophers are 1-4 away (1-2 vs quad 1)

    oh btw iowa st has a net rating of 15 while minnesota is 51

    so quality road wins, strength of schedule (which really their isnt that big of a difference there)

    Goes to show how much importance they really are putting in efficency numbers
    Lets look closer at the wins and the losses. Gophers do not have a win that even comes close to Kansas or Texas Tech and they have 2 losses far worse than anything Iowa State has. They have those wins over highly efficient teams and avoided losses to teams that are not efficient like BC and Illinois. Most people that are not fans of either would say that right now that Iowa State is the better team.

  7. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by builtbadgers View Post
    Lets look closer at the wins and the losses. Gophers do not have a win that even comes close to Kansas or Texas Tech and they have 2 losses far worse than anything Iowa State has. They have those wins over highly efficient teams and avoided losses to teams that are not efficient like BC and Illinois. Most people that are not fans of either would say that right now that Iowa State is the better team.
    Except according to NET ranking,
    Winning @wisconsin is more difficult than beating Kansas.


    Which even further demonstrates the stupidity of net

  8. #68

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    You guys are reading WAY WAY WAY too much into who we beat and who we got beat by.

    In the NET score, I think it makes very little difference.

    What does make a difference is your offensive and defensive efficiency. (or net efficiency).

    Iowa scores 118.5 points per 100 possessions.
    We score 109.7

    Iowa's defense allows 100.7 points per possession.
    We allow 97.5.

    They have a 17.8 spread between those numbers.
    We have a 12.21 point spread in those numbers.

    Then you need to adjust for how many games you have beaten an opponent by 10 or more.
    Iowa has 10 opponents they beat by more than 10. Move them up above the efficiency rankings a couple spots.
    Minnesota only has 6 wins by 10 or more. Probably a little below average for our efficiency ranking. Keep us the same or move down a couple spots.


    Our RPI which measures wins against opponents and strength of schedule is better than Iowa's so the strength of schedule or the number of wins against certain opponents is not the reason why Iowa is way above us.
    Wins and SOS have almost nothing to do with NET score.
    It's efficiency, and then a bonus for beating teams by 10 or more.
    "Do Not Be Afraid to Be A Legend"

  9. #69

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    Quote Originally Posted by builtbadgers View Post
    Lets look closer at the wins and the losses. Gophers do not have a win that even comes close to Kansas or Texas Tech.
    WTF are you talking about??

    Your beloved NET rankings indicates the Gophers have:

    ROAD WIN over #13 NET team (Wis)
    HOME WIN over #24 NET team (Neb)
    HOME WIN over #30 NET team (IA)

    Your beloved NET rankings indicates Cyclones have:

    HOME win over #17 NET team (Kan)
    ROAD win over #18 NET team (Texas Tech)
    HOME win over #35 NET team (Mississippi)


    I mean its the ranking system you seem to love and defend, my man.


    Quote Originally Posted by builtbadgers View Post
    Most people that are not fans of either would say that right now that Iowa State is the better team.
    I think you're right, most fans agree that right now Iowa State is likely the better team.

    The point isn't that. The point is that two teams appearing so closely matched on resumes and records and accomplishments so far this year are separated by 36 spots in some predictive/efficiency formula. That formula basically has one team (ISU) sitting around a 4 seed and the other team (MN) barely in the 68-team field, if at all.

    Iowa State and Minnesota are both 15-5 with quite similar resumes (Gophers actually have the best win via NET rankings). But, the Cyclones have won "more pretty" so they are 36 spots higher. That's poppycock.

    The RPI seems a better indicator as ISU is #25 and Minnesota is #30.
    Last edited by tjgopher; 01-28-2019 at 09:48 PM.

  10. #70

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    Quote Originally Posted by Face The Facts View Post
    You guys are reading WAY WAY WAY too much into who we beat and who we got beat by.

    In the NET score, I think it makes very little difference.

    What does make a difference is your offensive and defensive efficiency. (or net efficiency).

    Iowa scores 118.5 points per 100 possessions.
    We score 109.7

    Iowa's defense allows 100.7 points per possession.
    We allow 97.5.

    They have a 17.8 spread between those numbers.
    We have a 12.21 point spread in those numbers.

    Then you need to adjust for how many games you have beaten an opponent by 10 or more.
    Iowa has 10 opponents they beat by more than 10. Move them up above the efficiency rankings a couple spots.
    Minnesota only has 6 wins by 10 or more. Probably a little below average for our efficiency ranking. Keep us the same or move down a couple spots.


    Our RPI which measures wins against opponents and strength of schedule is better than Iowa's so the strength of schedule or the number of wins against certain opponents is not the reason why Iowa is way above us.
    Wins and SOS have almost nothing to do with NET score.
    It's efficiency, and then a bonus for beating teams by 10 or more.
    Your last two sentences identify the problem. I can see using NET in a seeding situation as a tiebreaker, but not much else.

  11. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by Face The Facts View Post
    Iowa's defense allows 100.7 points per possession.
    It certainly seemed that way.

  12. #72

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    I'm doing a comparison of NET vs Ken Pom vs RPI.

    KenPom and NET are very close, but to try to find out what makes them different, here are some outliers.

    Here are teams in top 100 NET who have a NET higher than KP and RPI.

    NET KP rank RPI Team Conf
    75 90 120 USC P12
    80 100 127 South Florida Amer
    86 97 119 Georgia SEC
    89 121 106 Utah P12
    94 115 159 Vanderbilt SEC


    Four teams in the top 100 that have NET scores better than their RPI or KP scores, that actually reflect closer to their RPI than KP (a rarity) are:

    NET KP rank RPI TEAM
    45 62 54 Hofstra (11 wins by double digits)
    54 69 57 Memphis (8 wins by double digits)
    84 127 92 Penn (7 wins by double digits)
    99 132 107 North Texas (9 wins by double digits)

    What would have these teams ranked higher than KP or their RPI?
    Here are their SOS's.

    Team - SOS SOS-NC
    Hostra - 138 174
    Memphis - 311 339
    Penn - 235 239
    North Texas - 41 50
    "Do Not Be Afraid to Be A Legend"

  13. #73

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    Teams hurt by NET. (Worse NET score than RPI or Ken Pom). SOS and Non-Conf SOS posted as well.


    NET KP RPI NCAA SOS SOS-NC
    74 60 44 New Mexico St. 115 170
    58 50 39 Creighton 8 14
    33 25 21 Florida St. 20 32 (9 wins by double digits)
    59 51 56 Clemson 24 88
    71 63 70 ETSU 208 287



    Something about these teams are getting hurt by NET ranking outside of efficiency and RPI factors.
    Last edited by Face The Facts; 01-28-2019 at 11:01 PM.
    "Do Not Be Afraid to Be A Legend"

  14. #74

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    Quote Originally Posted by Face The Facts View Post
    You guys are reading WAY WAY WAY too much into who we beat and who we got beat by.

    In the NET score, I think it makes very little difference.

    What does make a difference is your offensive and defensive efficiency. (or net efficiency).

    Iowa scores 118.5 points per 100 possessions.
    We score 109.7

    Iowa's defense allows 100.7 points per possession.
    We allow 97.5.

    They have a 17.8 spread between those numbers.
    We have a 12.21 point spread in those numbers.

    Then you need to adjust for how many games you have beaten an opponent by 10 or more.
    Iowa has 10 opponents they beat by more than 10. Move them up above the efficiency rankings a couple spots.
    Minnesota only has 6 wins by 10 or more. Probably a little below average for our efficiency ranking. Keep us the same or move down a couple spots.


    Our RPI which measures wins against opponents and strength of schedule is better than Iowa's so the strength of schedule or the number of wins against certain opponents is not the reason why Iowa is way above us.
    Wins and SOS have almost nothing to do with NET score.
    It's efficiency, and then a bonus for beating teams by 10 or more.
    I think a really big issue is they are double counting margin of victory.

    If efficiency ratings play a big role, then margin of victory already is measured because points per possession measures margin of victory give or take one possession in a game.



    The other big issue is that efficiency treats every possession the same. In fact, not all possessions matter equally. Possession in the Iowa and Michigan game matter a lot more than a possession against Santa Clara but those possessions weight equally when measuring efficiency.

    Likewise, in a game like Illinois or North Carolina A&T the game wasn’t in doubt the last 10 minutes of a game, but all those possessions matter in efficiency rankings. Basically the moral of the story is beat everyone by 50 when you can because you can fool efficiency rankings.


    Even if they have an adjusted points per possession or defensive points per possession, it is just an arbitrary calculation created by someone. And you can say it’s mathematically calculated, but then again the score of the Minnesota Wisconsin game actually happened.
    Last edited by Some guy; 01-29-2019 at 04:45 AM.

  15. #75

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    Quote Originally Posted by tjgopher View Post
    WTF are you talking about??

    Your beloved NET rankings indicates the Gophers have:

    ROAD WIN over #13 NET team (Wis)
    HOME WIN over #24 NET team (Neb)
    HOME WIN over #30 NET team (IA)

    Your beloved NET rankings indicates Cyclones have:

    HOME win over #17 NET team (Kan)
    ROAD win over #18 NET team (Texas Tech)
    HOME win over #35 NET team (Mississippi)


    I mean its the ranking system you seem to love and defend, my man.




    I think you're right, most fans agree that right now Iowa State is likely the better team.

    The point isn't that. The point is that two teams appearing so closely matched on resumes and records and accomplishments so far this year are separated by 36 spots in some predictive/efficiency formula. That formula basically has one team (ISU) sitting around a 4 seed and the other team (MN) barely in the 68-team field, if at all.

    Iowa State and Minnesota are both 15-5 with quite similar resumes (Gophers actually have the best win via NET rankings). But, the Cyclones have won "more pretty" so they are 36 spots higher. That's poppycock.

    The RPI seems a better indicator as ISU is #25 and Minnesota is #30.
    I do not love NET but there is not a perfect system and it is better than RPI. It is not the sole tool used to select teams. I look at Kenpom, the polls and my eyes. The Gophers are hurt in NET by two bad Kenpom losses, poor performances by the non con except for Washington. People really do not understand efficiency and how it spells winning by playing well. People do not understand pace of play either and that has nothing to do with efficiency ppp. Instead of complaining, what is it that you want to use . Can not pick RPI because coaches wanted it out with all its flaws. It was overly generous to wins like Santa Clara and then worse, not recognizing a power conference team that actually was above .500 in conference with several top 25 wins. RPI was deeply flawed but i suppose since likes us, you like it. Sure BC and Illinois have a nice win or two, everyone knows anyone can beat anyone but their body of work is truly awful. For someone who think winning is all that matters then those two teams do not win very often because they play poorly most of the time. I have us as a 7-8 seed right now. Play great, win the rest and we would have a 2 seed. Get to 13-7 and we will be a 5. It was not me that voted for the changes, it was the coaches themselves who wanted good play against good teams rewarded. The way they laid out the quads stink in my opinion.

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