Field of 68 Projection

An * denotes conference leader or best NET ranking.

FIELD OF 68 (through Jan. 20)
America East (1): Vermont (70)

American (2): *Houston (7), Cincinnati (32)

ACC (8): *Virginia (1), Duke (2), Virginia Tech (9), North Carolina (12), Louisville (16), NC State (26), Florida State (40), Syracuse (47)

Atlantic Sun (1): Liberty (52)

Atlantic 10 (2): VCU (51), *Saint Louis (67)

Big East (4): Marquette (21), *Villanova (28), Butler (43), Seton Hall (56)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (159)

Big South (1): Radford (93)

Big Ten (10): *Michigan State (5), Michigan (6), Nebraska (13), Purdue (15), Wisconsin (17), Maryland (20), Iowa (24), Indiana (33), Ohio State (39), Minnesota (65)

Big XII (8): *Texas Tech (11), Iowa State (18), Kansas (19), Oklahoma (30), TCU (31), Kansas State (34), Texas (44), Baylor (53)

Big West (1): UCSB (137)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (48)

Conference USA (1):Marshall (112)

Horizon (1): Northern Kentucky (110)

Ivy (1): Princeton (167)

MAAC (1): Rider (153)

MAC (1): Buffalo (10)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (259)

Missouri Valley (1): Loyola-Chicago (97)

Mountain West (1): Nevada (22)

NEC (1): Robert Morris (262)

OVC (1): Murrray State (45)

Pac 12 (2): *Washington (36), Arizona State (72)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (163)

SEC (7): *Tennessee (4), Kentucky (8), LSU (14), Auburn (23), Ole Miss (25), Mississippi State (27), Alabama (50)

Southern (1): Wofford (29)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (193)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (257)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (122)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (120)

WCC (2): *Gonzaga (3), San Francisco (38)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (98)
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Last 4 In: Baylor (53), Seton Hall (56), Minnesota (65), Arizona State (72)

First 4 Out: UCF (37), Utah State (41), Saint John’s (42), Arizona (54)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (3): Cincinnati (32), San Francisco (38), VCU, (51)

This from ESPN:Minnesota Golden Gophers
Bracketology current seed: 11
NET ranking: 48
Chance to reach NCAA tournament: 17 percent

In this case, BPI thinks Minnesota's current seed is exactly right ... if it can stay in the tournament. But that's a long shot, per BPI, which gave the Golden Gophers only a 17 percent chance to reach the tournament. As the 74th-best team in Division I, per BPI, Minnesota doesn't have the team quality one would expect for an at-large team. That's fine as long as its record (and really, its strength of record) can make up for that. Currently, it does. But there's a good chance it will not.

That, even at 13-4, Lunardi has Minnesota pegged as one of the last four byes is a troubling sign for a team that is about to encounter the same problem Michigan will face: the Big Ten schedule. Worse, actually, because Minnesota has to play against (and likely lose to) the Wolverines twice. In fact, Minnesota is favored by BPI in only two of its remaining games in the regular season.

On the court, the concern for Minnesota is about scoring from the floor. The Golden Gophers have the 97th-best offense in basketball, per BPI, but even the success they do have is fueled by a high offensive rebound rate. Their 2-point and 3-point shooting rates rank in the 200s.

60's Guy said:

This from ESPN:Minnesota Golden Gophers
Bracketology current seed: 11
NET ranking: 48
Chance to reach NCAA tournament: 17 percent

In this case, BPI thinks Minnesota's current seed is exactly right ... if it can stay in the tournament. But that's a long shot, per BPI, which gave the Golden Gophers only a 17 percent chance to reach the tournament. As the 74th-best team in Division I, per BPI, Minnesota doesn't have the team quality one would expect for an at-large team. That's fine as long as its record (and really, its strength of record) can make up for that. Currently, it does. But there's a good chance it will not.

That, even at 13-4, Lunardi has Minnesota pegged as one of the last four byes is a troubling sign for a team that is about to encounter the same problem Michigan will face: the Big Ten schedule. Worse, actually, because Minnesota has to play against (and likely lose to) the Wolverines twice. In fact, Minnesota is favored by BPI in only two of its remaining games in the regular season.

On the court, the concern for Minnesota is about scoring from the floor. The Golden Gophers have the 97th-best offense in basketball, per BPI, but even the success they do have is fueled by a high offensive rebound rate. Their 2-point and 3-point shooting rates rank in the 200s.

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As much as I don’t like aspects of these newer evaluation/rating tools, I have to reluctantly admit that this sounds pretty darn accurate. If we can’t get IW functioning at a fairly high level and begin to shoot the ball (2s, 3s and free-throws) at at least an average rate), this prediction will likely hold true. Here’s to hoping we figure it out and prove the BPI wrong!


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I assume this would be if they picked them now...if you projecting the gophers to win enough future games than good luck

Gabe/Coffey/Dupree, and maybe even Curry, need to boost their 3 point percentage, bigly.

You can not count on IW. His jumper isn't bad looking, but some guys just cant

Cant believe how good Murphy is without making jumpers. I always thought he would develop one. I was wrong.

Really needed Stull to contribute. But he's just not athletic enough to play every night.

At this point, every team that doesn't play zone vs gophers is stupid.

Why not play better defense. You did not even mention it and it is easier to control than missing shots.

theczar said:

I assume this would be if they picked them now...if you projecting the gophers to win enough future games than good luck

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Correct. I’m not projecting future results.

builtbadgers said:

Why not play better defense. You did not even mention it and it is easier to control than missing shots.

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I would agree with this. As much as we want to talk about shooting being a problem, the gophers lack of defense over the last 3 games has been really concerning.

Gophers almost allowed a point per possession vs. a putrid Rutgers offense w/o it's best player, then the Illinois game and the 1st half vs. another poor offensive team in Penn St. Now, they played better defense in the 2nd half against Penn St, but it shouldn't have come to that. I am a Pitino-obo has much as anyone, but if this trend continues we'll be in the market for a coach at the end of the season. You can't have defensive efforts like they have had the last 3 games an expect to be a NCAA tournament team.

Thanks for doing this. The * for denoting also should go to UVA for leading NET. Perhaps losing at Duke led you believe they dropped.

builtbadgers said:

Thanks for doing this. The * for denoting also should go to UVA for leading NET. Perhaps losing at Duke led you believe they dropped.

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Thanks. Fixed.

The Gophers have labored to their 14 wins; but they have them nonetheless. None of the metrics would suggest we be in the conversation for the NCAA; but we are. We play two freshman; a RS sophomore coming back from a long layoff; and a sophomore who holds the keys to our offensive success, but who often does not know which key to use.

There is room for growth this season from this team and I am still not counting them out. An intangible key is better energy (and crowd support) at home. The expectation has to be to win all remaining home games regardless of the opponent.

We differ on 4 teams.

I have St. John's, Arizona, UCF, and Temple in.
I have Butler, Baylor, NC State, and San Francisco out.

My last 4 in are Seton Hall, Alabama, Minnesota, and Temple.
My first 4 out are Butler, Lipscomb, Baylor, and NC State.
(Took Liberty over Lipscomb for the A-Sun auto bid due to the 5-0 vs 4-0 conference record.)

bizzle22 said:

We differ on 4 teams.

I have St. John's, Arizona, UCF, and Temple in.
I have Butler, Baylor, NC State, and San Francisco out.

My last 4 in are Seton Hall, Alabama, Minnesota, and Temple.
My first 4 out are Butler, Lipscomb, Baylor, and NC State.
(Took Liberty over Lipscomb for the A-Sun auto bid due to the 5-0 vs 4-0 conference record.)

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Thanks. Always enjoy comparisons. Good catch on Liberty. I got my L schools mixed up.

Block M said:

The Gophers have labored to their 14 wins; but they have them nonetheless. None of the metrics would suggest we be in the conversation for the NCAA; but we are. We play two freshman; a RS sophomore coming back from a long layoff; and a sophomore who holds the keys to our offensive success, but who often does not know which key to use.

There is room for growth this season from this team and I am still not counting them out. An intangible key is better energy (and crowd support) at home. The expectation has to be to win all remaining home games regardless of the opponent.

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Improving defensive efficiency is a must. It can be done and I believe it’s our best shot at defying the metrics of the projections I have seen, (KenPom etc.) it’s also more likely to improve than our offensive efficiency. I believe we are who we are regarding shooting and we already are maximizing getting to the line at a very high rate. Adding a healthy Eric Curry might move the needle a little and Oturu continues to improve. They give me glimmer of hope on that side of the ball. IW is also an X factor that could impact our O. So can this Gopher leopard change its spots? Can this ugly-ish duckling improve to a better looking duckling? Maybe a homely swan? Are there any examples of teams that have gotten their $hit together and defied the metrics? Started playing measurably better than they “should” have been able too? Getting on a roll sounds good but who has actually done it?
Thanks in advance.


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sal said:

Improving defensive efficiency is a must. It can be done and I believe it’s our best shot at defying the metrics of the projections I have seen, (KenPom etc.) it’s also more likely to improve than our offensive efficiency. I believe we are who we are regarding shooting and we already are maximizing getting to the line at a very high rate. Adding a healthy Eric Curry might move the needle a little and Oturu continues to improve. They give me glimmer of hope on that side of the ball. IW is also an X factor that could impact our O. So can this Gopher leopard change its spots? Can this ugly-ish duckling improve to a better looking duckling? Maybe a homely swan? Are there any examples of teams that have gotten their $hit together and defied the metrics? Started playing measurably better than they “should” have been able too? Getting on a roll sounds good but who has actually done it?
Thanks in advance.


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There is no doubt better defense is the one thing we could improve upon without question. Some scheme, some smarts but largely greater effort would bump us up. But imo we do already play hard in stretches most games on defense...not all but most Big Ten games we have. To play hard 40 minutes...that ain't gonna happen imo and it's Virginia hard to do...it is a culture we don't have.
More offensive talent is what most teams have.

Winona Gopher said:

I am a Pitino-obo

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Pitino or best offer? /s