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  1. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by touchdownvikings View Post
    A correlation coefficient expresses how linear a relationship is between two variables. See below:



    A 0.73 is telling you that there is a strong linear relationship between IW minutes played and total points scored by the Gophers since the start of B1G play.

    I can run Coffey's. I suspect the correlation coefficient would not be high because (1) we always play him in games, and (2) we don't always score a lot of points. Therefore, there is unlikely to be a direct linear relationship between his minutes played and points scored. However, there is a fairly strong relationship with IW because when he is in and runs the offense (moves the ball around), it tends to generate scoring no matter who is having an up or down night shooting. He passes to players who are "on" and passes to players that are in good positions to score.
    Got it. Would be interesting to see Isaiah's number in a few weeks to see if his numbet holds. Thanks.


  2. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by bc2211 View Post
    Normalize by defensive efficiency and then weíll talk.

    That said, good fodder for discussion. I need to learn to be less negative. Awesome to see something substantive here even if I donít agree with the methods

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I don't know what's hard to understand.

    Point 1

    There isn't a lot of data used here, but the poster's point is that about 70+% of winning teams in the games examined scored more than 70 points with the modal share being a bit higher than 70 points. Yes, one can win with fewer points by being an especially good defensive team but that isn't playing the odds.

    Point 2

    Washington's minutes correlate positively with team scoring levels.

  3. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by cjbfbp View Post
    I don't know what's hard to understand.

    Point 1

    There isn't a lot of data used here, but the poster's point is that about 70+% of winning teams in the games examined scored more than 70 points with the modal share being a bit higher than 70 points. Yes, one can win with fewer points by being an especially good defensive team but that isn't playing the odds.

    Point 2

    Washington's minutes correlate positively with team scoring levels.
    You've nailed it with far fewer words. Thank you. My wife is right - she says I'm too longwinded!

  4. #19

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    To describe in basketball terms (leaving the statistics aside for the moment) why I prefer IW at the point, consider the following:



    Here, GK and AC are are out beyond the 3-point line, spreading out the defense. They are both capable shooters and no sane defense will leave them untended to out there. So Amir has value in spreading out the defense when he is without the ball. This creates room for IW who can penetrate and pass. When Amir is playing point, he has no value in spreading out the defense - the defense will move toward the man with the ball no matter who it is. The question is: can you make the defense adjust even when you don't have the ball? Amir and Gabe can do that. So we should have lineups with Amir, Gabe and IW.

  5. #20

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    Touchdown what correlation factor did you use? I canít replicate. I get a 0.003 for big ten only play using Pearsonís r, a 0.41 if I include all games since dec 2 (the start of big ten play).





    If I normalize each game total by defensive efficiency (actually the inverse since smaller values correspond to better defense) of each opponent, the correlation drops to -0.03 for big 10 only and 0.21 for all since dec 2. Basically, IWís numbers donít look as good if you start to factor out how good each opponent is defensively.



    Lastly, here is my data table

    And here is my defensive data source:
    https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...ive-efficiency

    I took minutes out of espn boxscores.


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  6. #21
    Join Date
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    Can we get a points per possession with IW in vs not? We run a typically faster paced offense with Isaiah in so doesn’t shock me at all

  7. #22

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    It was my understanding there would be no math.

  8. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by touchdownvikings View Post
    To describe in basketball terms (leaving the statistics aside for the moment) why I prefer IW at the point, consider the following:



    Here, GK and AC are are out beyond the 3-point line, spreading out the defense. They are both capable shooters and no sane defense will leave them untended to out there. So Amir has value in spreading out the defense when he is without the ball. This creates room for IW who can penetrate and pass. When Amir is playing point, he has no value in spreading out the defense - the defense will move toward the man with the ball no matter who it is. The question is: can you make the defense adjust even when you don't have the ball? Amir and Gabe can do that. So we should have lineups with Amir, Gabe and IW.
    That's a fantastic play and that's what IW should do. But at least 7 or 8 out of 10 times he takes a terrible shot or commits a turnover. He has the potential to be so so good! He's gotta play smarter and he could be a stud, right now he's just not there. So you have to weigh that with his minutes. He's had a few games where he's been on but I find myself half covering my eyes at times.

  9. #24

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    IW clearly needs to play been saying this from day one and it’s so frustrating watching this offense when he is out of the game.

  10. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by touchdownvikings View Post
    You've nailed it with far fewer words. Thank you. My wife is right - she says I'm too longwinded!
    You're welcome but I thought your explanation was fine!

  11. #26

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    @bc2211 - I'm just back from a work/drinking event this evening. There was a bit more drinking than working! :-) So I'm not in the proper mental "space" to return to my math, however simple. I should have time tomorrow and I'll go over the data set and explain.

  12. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by NotAFanOfBecky View Post
    That's a fantastic play and that's what IW should do. But at least 7 or 8 out of 10 times he takes a terrible shot or commits a turnover. He has the potential to be so so good! He's gotta play smarter and he could be a stud, right now he's just not there. So you have to weigh that with his minutes. He's had a few games where he's been on but I find myself half covering my eyes at times.
    I'd like to point out some things:

    (1) Washington is in a zone there. Theoretically, a zone is kryptonite to the Gophers to listen to commentators and some on Gopherhole.

    (2) The Gophers are able to attack it because of Amir and Gabe. They spread the defense without the ball. Zone doesn't become shade to the lane side of your zone because you don't believe your man is unable to shoot. So there's room.

    (3) Now that there's room, IW takes care of the rest.

    (4) This is repeatable provided we play IW with a lineup that spreads the defense - whether it's man or zone. Doesn't matter. Amir + Gabe beyond the arc will result in room.

  13. #28

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    Cool thread. Coach Pitino seems to like statistics. Can someone suggest to him he read this thread?


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  14. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bordergopher View Post
    Cool thread. Coach Pitino seems to like statistics. Can someone suggest to him he read this thread?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    All sarcasm noted but he uses every metric for every player in every combination not only for games but practices. The question is does he have the magic when it comes to teaching and how to recruit to what you do well.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by touchdownvikings View Post
    I'd like to point out some things:

    (1) Washington is in a zone there. Theoretically, a zone is kryptonite to the Gophers to listen to commentators and some on Gopherhole.

    (2) The Gophers are able to attack it because of Amir and Gabe. They spread the defense without the ball. Zone doesn't become shade to the lane side of your zone because you don't believe your man is unable to shoot. So there's room.

    (3) Now that there's room, IW takes care of the rest.

    (4) This is repeatable provided we play IW with a lineup that spreads the defense - whether it's man or zone. Doesn't matter. Amir + Gabe beyond the arc will result in room.
    Well stated.

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