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  1. #1

    Default I hate to be that guy... but...

    I feel the need to help out Pitino a little bit. Here goes nothin'.

    If one were to examine the number of points scored in the B1G by winning teams so far this year, a histogram like this would result:



    The interquartile range for points score by winning teams is 69-82. The median is 76. The Gophers average in B1G play is 67.5. Only 4 games out of 24 have had a winning team scoring 67.5 points or fewer. (The Wisconsin game - where the Gophers scored 59 and won - represents the lowest point total for a winning team so far this year in B1G play). The Gophers simply do not score enough points.

    Now, if we look at the correlation coefficient of minutes played by Isaiah Washington versus points scored since the start of B1G play, that figure turns out to be 0.73. For those of you who do not regularly wonk out to statistics:



    As you can see, this represents a strong positive relationship. It's almost as if having a point guard on the floor results in improved offensive play!

    We NEED IW on the floor. His play has improved and we score more points when he's out there. This is especially true when he is playing with starters. Get is a$$ out there immediately.

    Rant over.


  2. #2

    Default

    Playing better defense is the key.

  3. #3

    Default

    Scoring more points than the other team is the key
    Season tickets since 1970 - Born in 1969

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  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by brucekaupa View Post
    Scoring more points than the other team is the key
    And best achieved by stopping the other teams from scoring. Gophers score plenty of points to win but over 6 years are close to 5-40 when giving up over 75.

  5. #5

    Default

    I'd like to see more data before drawing a conclusion. 4 games isn't much.

    What's IW's plus/minus? I don't doubt that he helps us score more points, but I wonder about how he impacts the other 50% of the game.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by builtbadgers View Post
    And best achieved by stopping the other teams from scoring. Gophers score plenty of points to win but over 6 years are close to 5-40 when giving up over 75.
    Obviously we need more data than four B1G games... but... it is hard to win scoring in the 50's and 60's. You can see that, given the Gophers' average, they would be hoping to win while scoring a point total that accounts for only one out of every six victories logged in the B1G. That's making things unnecessarily hard on yourself. Their point totals are objectively low for sustained victory.

    Moreover, during the Tubby years we saw the team regularly be at toward the top in blocked shots, rebounding and steals and still lose a lot. His problem? His teams could not shoot and they scored in the 50's and 60's a ton. It's just hard to win with that point total and the data displays this. You need to score in at a level that approaches the median. Say, 73 points on average. Then you could hope to make up for a small deficiency in scoring with defense.

  7. #7

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bizzle22 View Post
    I'd like to see more data before drawing a conclusion. 4 games isn't much.

    What's IW's plus/minus? I don't doubt that he helps us score more points, but I wonder about how he impacts the other 50% of the game.
    No doubt more data would be helpful. I'm going with what we have so far... I could repeat this analysis in a week or so?

  8. #8

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by touchdownvikings View Post
    I feel the need to help out Pitino a little bit. Here goes nothin'.

    If one were to examine the number of points scored in the B1G by winning teams so far this year, a histogram like this would result:



    The interquartile range for points score by winning teams is 69-82. The median is 76. The Gophers average in B1G play is 67.5. Only 4 games out of 24 have had a winning team scoring 67.5 points or fewer. (The Wisconsin game - where the Gophers scored 59 and won - represents the lowest point total for a winning team so far this year in B1G play). The Gophers simply do not score enough points.

    Now, if we look at the correlation coefficient of minutes played by Isaiah Washington versus points scored since the start of B1G play, that figure turns out to be 0.73. For those of you who do not regularly wonk out to statistics:



    As you can see, this represents a strong positive relationship. It's almost as if having a point guard on the floor results in improved offensive play!

    We NEED IW on the floor. His play has improved and we score more points when he's out there. This is especially true when he is playing with starters. Get is a$$ out there immediately.

    Rant over.
    Intetesting. I suppose the other side would be does he give up points to a degree that negates the offense. Do you happen to have a correlation coefficient for our other players?

  9. #9

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ltf View Post
    Intetesting. I suppose the other side would be does he give up points to a degree that negates the offense. Do you happen to have a correlation coefficient for our other players?
    I do not... and it took me about 30 minutes to dig up the data for IW. I could do it for some others too - maybe tomorrow morning. Who are you interested in?

  10. #10

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by touchdownvikings View Post
    I do not... and it took me about 30 minutes to dig up the data for IW. I could do it for some others too - maybe tomorrow morning. Who are you interested in?
    If I understand correctly, this coefficient measures points the team scores per minute the player plays? I would assume Coffey's would be the highest. Would be kind of interesting to see how his compares to IW's if you have time.

  11. #11

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ltf View Post
    If I understand correctly, this coefficient measures points the team scores per minute the player plays? I would assume Coffey's would be the highest. Would be kind of interesting to see how his compares to IW's if you have time.
    A correlation coefficient expresses how linear a relationship is between two variables. See below:



    A 0.73 is telling you that there is a strong linear relationship between IW minutes played and total points scored by the Gophers since the start of B1G play.

    I can run Coffey's. I suspect the correlation coefficient would not be high because (1) we always play him in games, and (2) we don't always score a lot of points. Therefore, there is unlikely to be a direct linear relationship between his minutes played and points scored. However, there is a fairly strong relationship with IW because when he is in and runs the offense (moves the ball around), it tends to generate scoring no matter who is having an up or down night shooting. He passes to players who are "on" and passes to players that are in good positions to score.

  12. #12

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bizzle22 View Post
    I'd like to see more data before drawing a conclusion. 4 games isn't much.

    What's IW's plus/minus? I don't doubt that he helps us score more points, but I wonder about how he impacts the other 50% of the game.
    Exactly. In last night’s game he was not efficient offensively or defensively.

    That being said I know he needs more playing time to figure it out, but i don’t know if you can afford to play him much more when the stakes are so high for the team and coaching staff.

  13. #13

    Default I hate to be that guy... but...

    Normalize by defensive efficiency and then we’ll talk.

    That said, good fodder for discussion. I need to learn to be less negative. Awesome to see something substantive here even if I don’t agree with the methods

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Last edited by bc2211; 01-09-2019 at 12:00 PM.

  14. #14

    Default

    As my middle school, 18 year old basketball coach said in 1979, "If we score 100 points in every game, we will win a lot of games. If we keep the other team from scoring, we will NEVER lose."

    I saw that every day entering the locker room. And this is the same thing that keeps IW off the floor.

    of course, we weren't perfect, just 53-2 for three years.
    Last edited by Otis; 01-09-2019 at 12:24 PM.

  15. #15
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    Default

    Back in the 60's, the prevailing philosophy was - "If we score 80 pts, the other team has to score 81 to beat us."

    Then we started getting more defensive-oriented coaches, and the philosophy changed to "If we hold the other team to 60 pts, we only need to score 61 to win."

    Either approach can work if you have the right players to make it work. I like a more high-scoring game by nature, but I've seen coaches be very successful with a defensive emphasis.

    Bottom line - have a philosophy, recruit players who fit that philosophy, and stick to it.

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