Gophers had the best win in the country last night

SelectionSunday

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And one of their non-conference opponents (Utah) had the second best.

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16th in KPI. That's awesome.

Truth is, KPI is the ranking metric I like the best, better than the old RPI, better than NET, and better than KenPom. And I don't say that simply because that's where Gophers have their best ranking right now (other than the old RPI).
 

Truth is, KPI is the ranking metric I like the best, better than the old RPI, better than NET, and better than KenPom. And I don't say that simply because that's where Gophers have their best ranking right now (other than the old RPI).

Just curious, what makes it more favorable in your opinion?
 

Just curious, what makes it more favorable in your opinion?

Here's the KPI definition. The key part for me is:

"The formula incorporates Opponent’s Winning Percentage, Opponent’s Strength of Schedule, the Game Result, Scoring Margin, Pace of Game, Location of Game (Home/Away/Neutral) and the Opponent’s KPI Ranking. The value for each game is divided by games played for the overall KPI Ranking.

"The rankings can be made to include only a certain subset of games as well. Home KPI, KPI vs Top 100, November KPI, and any combination one can dream up are possible."

http://www.kpisports.net/about/definitions/

I like it because each season starts with a blank slate, and because it's kind of a hybrid between the old RPI (results) and some of the other notable rankings (KenPom, Sagarain, ESPN's BPI), but is based more on actual game results, not on how a team looks or how efficient they are. I prefer judging teams on wins and losses, not how good they look, or how many stars their recruits had (BPI).
 
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Thanks for the explanation.
 



Here's the KPI definition. The key part for me is:

"The formula incorporates Opponent’s Winning Percentage, Opponent’s Strength of Schedule, the Game Result, Scoring Margin, Pace of Game, Location of Game (Home/Away/Neutral) and the Opponent’s KPI Ranking. The value for each game is divided by games played for the overall KPI Ranking.

"The rankings can be made to include only a certain subset of games as well. Home KPI, KPI vs Top 100, November KPI, and any combination one can dream up are possible."

http://www.kpisports.net/about/definitions/

I like it because each season starts with a blank slate, and because it's kind of a hybrid between the old RPI (results) and some of the other notable rankings (KenPom, Sagarain, ESPN's BPI), but is based more on actual game results, not on how a team looks or how efficient they are. I prefer judging teams on wins and losses, not how good they look, or how many stars their recruits had (BPI).

Thanks. Is there some other things you think should be added to make it better?


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Thanks. Is there some other things you think should be added to make it better?


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I actually wouldn't mind if the NCAA (NET rankings) added more to its margin of victory (MOV) component (currently capped at 10), but with a twist. Go ahead and keep the cap at 10 for games that end up being Quad 3 or 4. But for Quad 1 and Quad 2, make the cap higher because those are toughest games. I'd suggest the cap be 25 for Quad 1, 20 for Quad 2.
 

SS, How many quad1/2 wins are we looking for to be in the tourney? If we reach the goal of 21 wins I believe it would take care of itself. Just curious if we were to finish with a 9-11 big ten record, but racked up quad 1/2 wins. Would that be enough to get in?
 

SS, How many quad1/2 wins are we looking for to be in the tourney? If we reach the goal of 21 wins I believe it would take care of itself. Just curious if we were to finish with a 9-11 big ten record, but racked up quad 1/2 wins. Would that be enough to get in?

Good question.

I agree that 21 wins will take care of things with no problems.

If the Gophers finish 9-11 in the Big Ten, let's use last year's Oklahoma (18-14, 8-10) and Texas (19-15, 8-10) resumes for a comparison. Both finished two games under .500 in their conference and neither advanced beyond the Big XII Tournament quarterfinals, but both received at-large bids. Oklahoma was 6-10 vs. Quad 1 and 3-4 vs. Quad 2 for combined 9-14 record. Texas was 7-11 vs. Quad 1 and 3-4 vs. Quad 2 for combined 10-15 record.

So let's say the Gophers go 9-11 and then win one and lose one (quarterfinals) at the Big Ten Tournament. That would put them at 20-13 on Selection Sunday. Using OU/Texas last season as a reference -- but knowing every year is different with regards to bubble teams' strength of resumes -- we could assume the Gophers would need roughly 8-10 Quad 1/2 wins (mostly Quad 1's) to be in the conversation. They're likely to hit that number with the strength of this year's Big Ten.

One caveat is neither Oklahoma or Texas had any Quad 3 or Quad 4 slip-ups, i.e. the dreaded "bad losses". The Gophers currently have a Quad 3 loss (Boston College). That's something else to consider.
 
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I actually wouldn't mind if the NCAA (NET rankings) added more to its margin of victory (MOV) component (currently capped at 10), but with a twist. Go ahead and keep the cap at 10 for games that end up being Quad 3 or 4. But for Quad 1 and Quad 2, make the cap higher because those are toughest games. I'd suggest the cap be 25 for Quad 1, 20 for Quad 2.

Margin of victory should only matter if it was maintained for most of the game. As you know, a tight game can balloon at the very end when the team behind is fouling. And a comfortable lead the whole game could dwindle near the end with a bunch of garbage time points.

I’m very reluctant to say margin of victory should count fit much of anything.
 



Margin of victory should only matter if it was maintained for most of the game. As you know, a tight game can balloon at the very end when the team behind is fouling. And a comfortable lead the whole game could dwindle near the end with a bunch of garbage time points.

I’m very reluctant to say margin of victory should count fit much of anything.

Very fair argument.

But at least the coaches would know this metric absolutely matters to the rankings, and (if they choose) thus coach accordingly down the stretch.
 

Thanks SS! Appreciate all your posts. Obviously I hope for better than a 9-11 finish. It's college basketball and on any given night you just don't know. Your 6-0 gimmie games are all winnable but it's realistic to say we may have a poor shooting night, foul trouble, catch a hot shooting team, and lose one of those games. Hopefully we can pick up a game or two against the big dogs. In beating Wisconsin, unfortunately I am hoping they turn it around and win games. With that and other non conf teams we beat winning will help our resume..
 

So is NET going to be the biggest or only thing the NCAA looks at when it comes to selection/seeding? Or should we be paying attention to BPI and RPI still?
 

Thanks SS! Appreciate all your posts. Obviously I hope for better than a 9-11 finish. It's college basketball and on any given night you just don't know. Your 6-0 gimmie games are all winnable but it's realistic to say we may have a poor shooting night, foul trouble, catch a hot shooting team, and lose one of those games. Hopefully we can pick up a game or two against the big dogs. In beating Wisconsin, unfortunately I am hoping they turn it around and win games. With that and other non conf teams we beat winning will help our resume..

Thanks. Most important thing about last night is margin of error. ... Gophers, early in the conference season, have given themselves some. Not a lot, but some. That's important. How would we like to be Iowa right now? 11-0 in non-conference but 0-3 in the Big Ten. That early home loss to Wisconsin immediately put some pressure on them for the conference season.
 

So is NET going to be the biggest or only thing the NCAA looks at when it comes to selection/seeding? Or should we be paying attention to BPI and RPI still?

Sadly, (someone correct me if I'm wrong) ESPN's BPI is one of the things they look at. Others are KenPom, Sagarain, and KPI (Kevin Pauga). Think there are a couple others. NET will not be the only thing they look at, but just like RPI, I think they'll use it primarily as a way to group teams.

RPI is dead. No longer used by the committee, even though some sites (i.e. Warren Nolan) have daily RPI updates. I'm glad they do, interesting to see how it compares to the new NET rankings.
 

Iowa's non conf schedule is keeping them in the mix. Before losing to Purdue on the road their net rk was 35. Currently sitting at 49. Like most have mentioned to beat Wisconsin on the road after finals, breaks, and lower competition is huge! Went to college in Iowa and dislike them almost as much as Becky, but I think they will turn it around. Just not against us. Cook is good and Bohannon is scary if he gets going.
 

Iowa's non conf schedule is keeping them in the mix. Before losing to Purdue on the road their net rk was 35. Currently sitting at 49. Like most have mentioned to beat Wisconsin on the road after finals, breaks, and lower competition is huge! Went to college in Iowa and dislike them almost as much as Becky, but I think they will turn it around. Just not against us. Cook is good and Bohannon is scary if he gets going.

Hawkeyes still don't play defense, though, especially on the road. Their defensive performances @ Michigan State and @ Purdue were beyond dreadful.
 


Next game against Maryland is going to be big as well. Maryland is currently #32 in the NET rankings. We’re 34
 

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/minnesota-golden-gophers/bracketology

Hopefully the NCAA isn't using this! I know it's early and a lot will change but after looking at ken Pom, kpi, bpi, and bracket predictions it's not even close.

Not sure what formula they use or if they put future predictions into the formula.

Maybe a janitor at a prestigious college came up with something!

I don't pay any attention to simulations or projection of future results, so I don't put much (any) stock in sites like that. I guarantee you if the Gophers win 21 games, their odds to make the NCAA Tournament will be 100%, not 30.6%. That's just silly!
 




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