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  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by Otis View Post
    Wins Obtained: 16

    Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

    The Big Boys -- no worse than 3-4 (1-1)
    Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
    Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
    Feb. 3: @ Purdue
    Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
    Feb. 21: Michigan
    March 5: Purdue
    March 8: @ Maryland

    50-50s -- no worse than 3-4 (2-3)
    Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
    Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
    Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
    Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
    Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)

    Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-2 (4-1)
    Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
    Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
    Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
    Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
    Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
    Feb. 6: Wisconsin
    Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
    Feb. 16: Indiana
    Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
    Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

    Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
    Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
    Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
    Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
    Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
    Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
    Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
    Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
    Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
    Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

    Key to Season
    No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-1 so far

    Estimated Requirements
    Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

    Big Ten: 12-8 (6-4 so far)

    I think the remaining games and the teams performances make for the above changes as put in BOLD.

    Wisconsin could be moved into the 50-50 category but I'm thinking we are favored at home for that game, they are no better than Iowa. Tempting to move Indiana and @Nebraska into the Expected to win category, but why mess with perfection!
    I now like Gophers' chances much better of winning in Lincoln, but even without Copeland there's no way I'd put that into the expected win category. At this point I'm not even convinced we'll be favored at Northwestern or Rutgers, but I'm leaving them in their original spots (likely favored).


  2. #77

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    Quote Originally Posted by SelectionSunday View Post
    I now like Gophers' chances much better of winning in Lincoln, but even without Copeland there's no way I'd put that into the expected win category. At this point I'm not even convinced we'll be favored at Northwestern or Rutgers, but I'm leaving them in their original spots (likely favored).
    "Expected wins @Nebraska should never be taken for granted." - P.J. Fleck

  3. #78

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    4-6 the rest of the way would make us a lock. I want 12-8 or 11-9 but 10-10 will do. It is interesting the way the Big Ten standings are shaping up. With the way the conference performed in the non-conference games I have to believe 9 teams go to the tourney. We are going to have a ton of games against highly rated teams coming and if we play everyone tough, it is possible that even 9-11 gets in with a win or two in the Big Ten tournament. Right now the team in 8th place (Rutgers) is 4-6 and while they are tougher this year, that is probably not going to last. Next is OSU at 3-6. Right now it looks like MSU, Mich, Purdue, Wisky, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, and OSU with someone else from below sneaking up with a good second half of the conference and getting to 9-11 or 10-10 and getting in.

    If we keep playing like we are right now- we will be fine.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Otis View Post
    "Expected wins @Nebraska should never be taken for granted." - P.J. Fleck
    As a Gopher fan living in Nebraska, can't agree more. I have been to every Gopher football and basketball game played here in Lincoln and haven't been able to celebrate very many times. Basketball victories here in Lincoln have been surprisingly few and far between.

  5. #80
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    What's getting lost in the shuffle is winning at Northwestern and/or Rutgers are likely to be quality wins (Quad 1 or Quad 2). Or, for the glass half-empty folks, they wouldn't be bad losses. That's where having a strong conference from top to bottom really kicks in.

  6. #81

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    Something is off from the 50-50 category and the likely favored category. In the 50-50 you say no worse than 3-4, but there are only five games listed and we've gone 2-3. Did we fail? In the likely favored you say no worse than 6-2, but there are 10 games.

    For those main five games that we need, Wisc, @Neb, Indiana, @Rut, @NW .... some of them I think are definitely 50-50, and some of them are not quite that bad but I don't think of them as likely favored. That seems like no worse than 65-35. Those games seem more like 60-40 or maybe 55-45.

  7. #82

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gophers_4life View Post
    Something is off from the 50-50 category and the likely favored category. In the 50-50 you say no worse than 3-4, but there are only five games listed and we've gone 2-3. Did we fail? In the likely favored you say no worse than 6-2, but there are 10 games.

    For those main five games that we need, Wisc, @Neb, Indiana, @Rut, @NW .... some of them I think are definitely 50-50, and some of them are not quite that bad but I don't think of them as likely favored. That seems like no worse than 65-35. Those games seem more like 60-40 or maybe 55-45.
    I proposed re-shuffling the categories to match results and we didn't mess with the required wins.

  8. #83

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    Quote Originally Posted by SelectionSunday View Post
    I already did some slight tweaking (see latest update), primarily the Indiana and Purdue games (as you pointed out). Tried not to change the number of games in each group, but found it impossible.
    Thanks. I see that with the most recent ones posted. Don't know why the previous posters didn't include the updated ones.

  9. #84

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    Quote Originally Posted by Otis View Post
    I proposed re-shuffling the categories to match results and we didn't mess with the required wins.
    Regardless how you label them, it shows we need five more wins to feel safe. So if you bump Wisc up into the "hard games", then we still need all four of @Neb, Indiana, @Rut, @NW, plus then one of the hard games ... Purdue's, Michigan, @MSU, @Mayland, Wisc.

  10. #85

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    Wisconsin does not belong with the Michigan, @MSU, @MD or the Purdue games! They just aren't that good.

  11. #86

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    Quote Originally Posted by Otis View Post
    Wisconsin does not belong with the Michigan, @MSU, @MD or the Purdue games! They just aren't that good.
    They beat Michigan, I seem to recall. Just went to Neb and pulled away in the 2nd half.

    Even if they aren't that good, it will still be that tough of a game for us because of the rivalry.

  12. #87

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gophers_4life View Post
    They beat Michigan, I seem to recall. Just went to Neb and pulled away in the 2nd half.

    Even if they aren't that good, it will still be that tough of a game for us because of the rivalry.
    That would put them in the 50-50 category. Not Big Boy material.

    Oh yeah, we nearly beat Michigan at Chrisler.

  13. #88

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    Quote Originally Posted by Otis View Post
    That would put them in the 50-50 category. Not Big Boy material.

    Oh yeah, we nearly beat Michigan at Chrisler.
    Maybe Michigan should be in the 50-50 category then??

  14. #89

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gophers_4life View Post
    Maybe Michigan should be in the 50-50 category then??
    Lol

  15. #90

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    Quote Originally Posted by Otis View Post
    Wisconsin does not belong with the Michigan, @MSU, @MD or the Purdue games! They just aren't that good.
    It feels like they aren’t that good, but they keep winning, and against good teams. None of us (myself included) like to call them good, so maybe that makes them a “really adequate” or “highly average” team?


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