Gophers Path To NCAA Tournament Bid (21 Wins) As We Reach Big Ten Re-Start

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Maybe they’re good and we’re good. On the night we beat them we looked like the team with more talent. So maybe we can be really good!!


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Bordergopher said:
It feels like they aren’t that good, but they keep winning, and against good teams. None of us (myself included) like to call them good, so maybe that makes them a “really adequate” or “highly average” team?


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Highly efficient! Gotta keep pace with the times.
 





To say that Wisky isn’t that good is an understatement. They’ve played well overall. They’ve won 5 straight, and I’d agree they probably were favored in 4 of those victories. Beating Iowa and at Wisky are going to be good wins in the end but we’ve got to steal some road wins. We cannot just hold serve at home. It starts with beating Purdue tomorrow. If we lose by double digits we can expect to be on the bubble. They have to find a way to win two big road wins. We cannot have 2 or 3 road wins against inferior teams, with the exception of Wisky and feel good about that.
 

Blitzkrieg said:
To say that Wisky isn’t that good is an understatement. They’ve played well overall. They’ve won 5 straight, and I’d agree they probably were favored in 4 of those victories. Beating Iowa and at Wisky are going to be good wins in the end but we’ve got to steal some road wins. We cannot just hold serve at home. It starts with beating Purdue tomorrow. If we lose by double digits we can expect to be on the bubble. They have to find a way to win two big road wins. We cannot have 2 or 3 road wins against inferior teams, with the exception of Wisky and feel good about that.
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Agree. Wiscy confounds us year after year. It is hard to see how they continue to perform at such a high level with their level of talent. They are doing it again this year. Now, I think people somewhat undervalue their talent at times, but they are a bit down in that department this year, yet they continue to win. One can’t argue against their excellent coaching and execution. Their boring system works. Low turnovers, good shot selection, high percentage shooting, tough defense, limiting possessions. Beats playground-style basketball almost every time.


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Bordergopher said:
Agree. Wiscy confounds us year after year. It is hard to see how they continue to perform at such a high level with their level of talent. They are doing it again this year. Now, I think people somewhat undervalue their talent at times, but they are a bit down in that department this year, yet they continue to win. One can’t argue against their excellent coaching and execution. Their boring system works. Low turnovers, good shot selection, high percentage shooting, tough defense, limiting possessions. Beats playground-style basketball almost every time.


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Great post. Curious about what you find boring about low turnovers, good shot selection and tough defense. Low turnovers and great defense are what limits possessions. Great examples are if they just turned it over quickly 5 times more per game and if they were just average defensively they would give up good shots quickly and the possessions would increase. Michigan plays 2 dribbles per possession faster ! If we played that way with that success we would be sold out. I am not mocking you in any way. Curious as to what about it is boring to you. UVA plays that way and are sold out with huge TV ratings. Totally understand if people enjoy 90-88 games with poor defense and 30 turnovers. It is just entertainment after all.
 

Iowa crushed Michigan in Iowa City last night.
Wisconsin beat Maryland in Madison last night.


SO .... which is it? a) Michigan and Wisconsin home games are 50-50, because these teams really aren't "that" good, or b) both these games qualify for the "big boy" "hard" games ???
 



All those teams and the Gophers are fighting to see who the big boys are. The teams you named all have a very small margin to win when playing each other. This is the critical time in year 6 to show we can do something special. Win 9 of 10 and have 15 victories and be 1st or 2nd.
 

builtbadgers said:
Great post. Curious about what you find boring about low turnovers, good shot selection and tough defense. Low turnovers and great defense are what limits possessions. Great examples are if they just turned it over quickly 5 times more per game and if they were just average defensively they would give up good shots quickly and the possessions would increase. Michigan plays 2 dribbles per possession faster ! If we played that way with that success we would be sold out. I am not mocking you in any way. Curious as to what about it is boring to you. UVA plays that way and are sold out with huge TV ratings. Totally understand if people enjoy 90-88 games with poor defense and 30 turnovers. It is just entertainment after all.
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Fair question. I really enjoy watching fast breaks with athletic finishes. I could be wrong, but I don’t see that as much in Sconnie’s style of play. That doesn’t fit into their milk-the-clock and limit possessions style of play. My hope is that MN can replicate what Wisconsin does well but get out on the break way more often. I even like to see us run after a made basket. It seems to me that if you can get the ball quickly into the front court before the defense is fully set, your chances of exploiting the defense and getting a high-percentage shot increase greatly. Of course, that also requires discipline and smarts by the players running to resist wild out-of-control drives with low-probability of success. They need to be able to recognize the difference between a good and bad opportunity once the ball is across the center line.


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builtbadgers said:
All those teams and the Gophers are fighting to see who the big boys are. The teams you named all have a very small margin to win when playing each other. This is the critical time in year 6 to show we can do something special. Win 9 of 10 and have 15 victories and be 1st or 2nd.
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Yeah- I'm sure we would all like that, other than perhaps EWERT PC. :rolleyes:

This is a good solid team that has the ability to be in the upper half of the Big Ten when playing its best. For Minnesota, considering the last 20 years- that would be a very good start towards building to the types of finishes you discuss above. To set up those expectations for this year, makes no sense. Your "in year six" statement tips off what you are trying to do with that post. This is the current year. That's all it is. At years end the AD will assess what direction the program is heading.
 

Blitzkrieg said:
We cannot just hold serve at home. It starts with beating Purdue tomorrow. If we lose by double digits we can expect to be on the bubble. They have to find a way to win two big road wins. We cannot have 2 or 3 road wins against inferior teams, with the exception of Wisky and feel good about that.
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If by "holding serve" at home you mean winning the rest of the home games (which I don't think we will do), then we will be in the NCAA Tournament. That would put us at 20-11, 10-10 with wins over Wisconsin twice, Iowa, Purdue, Michigan, Nebraska, Indiana, and Washington, among others. It would include five wins away from Williams Arena. That is NCAA lock.

That said, I doubt we win the remaining four home games, so we will need a road win or two. But, to suggest it all starts with beating Purdue on the road tomorrow? Tomorrow is almost certainly a loss, so it really starts with beating Wisconsin at home on Wednesday. Road games at Nebraska, Rutgers, Northwestern are key. Get two of those and we're in really good shape.
 



bga1 said:
Yeah- I'm sure we would all like that, other than perhaps EWERT PC. :rolleyes:

This is a good solid team that has the ability to be in the upper half of the Big Ten when playing its best. For Minnesota, considering the last 20 years- that would be a very good start towards building to the types of finishes you discuss above. To set up those expectations for this year, makes no sense. Your "in year six" statement tips off what you are trying to do with that post. This is the current year. That's all it is. At years end the AD will assess what direction the program is heading.
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Not tipping off anything. It is only about this year and it is high time to make it special.
 

Bordergopher said:
Fair question. I really enjoy watching fast breaks with athletic finishes. I could be wrong, but I don’t see that as much in Sconnie’s style of play. That doesn’t fit into their milk-the-clock and limit possessions style of play. My hope is that MN can replicate what Wisconsin does well but get out on the break way more often. I even like to see us run after a made basket. It seems to me that if you can get the ball quickly into the front court before the defense is fully set, your chances of exploiting the defense and getting a high-percentage shot increase greatly. Of course, that also requires discipline and smarts by the players running to resist wild out-of-control drives with low-probability of success. They need to be able to recognize the difference between a good and bad opportunity once the ball is across the center line.


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Great post. Enjoy the back and forth without the insults that often come when people see things posted they do not like. Appreciate the thoughts. I enjoy getting out on the break too but you have to have the personel to pull it off, which you had your way of explaining.
 

tjgopher said:
If by "holding serve" at home you mean winning the rest of the home games (which I don't think we will do), then we will be in the NCAA Tournament. That would put us at 20-11, 10-10 with wins over Wisconsin twice, Iowa, Purdue, Michigan, Nebraska, Indiana, and Washington, among others. It would include five wins away from Williams Arena. That is NCAA lock.

That said, I doubt we win the remaining four home games, so we will need a road win or two. But, to suggest it all starts with beating Purdue on the road tomorrow? Tomorrow is almost certainly a loss, so it really starts with beating Wisconsin at home on Wednesday. Road games at Nebraska, Rutgers, Northwestern are key. Get two of those and we're in really good shape.
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I actually like the match up with Purdue.
 

builtbadgers said:
I actually like the match up with Purdue.
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If the Gophers win there, then we are in REALLY good shape for sure. After years of not winning there, we won there two years ago, so maybe. That would be great.

Your guy KenPom gives Minnesota a 13% chance of winning the game. So, roughly if we played it ten times, we would win one. As the great Herb Brooks says, maybe tomorrow's our one time.
 
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tjgopher said:
If the Gophers win there, then we are in REALLY good shape for sure. After years of not winning there, we've won 2 of 4 there, so maybe. That would be great.

Your guy KenPom gives Minnesota a 13% chance of winning the game. So, roughly if we played it ten times, we would win one. As the great Herb Brooks says, maybe tomorrow's our one time.
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I do not use Kenpom as a predictor, i use it to show who plays well. The Gophers best years by far have been their best years, the worst Kenpom years by far the worst. It is true for every team and it can be researched in 5 minutes for free.
 

builtbadgers said:
I do not use Kenpom as a predictor, i use it to show who plays well. The Gophers best years by far have been their best years, the worst Kenpom years by far the worst. It is true for every team and it can be researched in 5 minutes for free.
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Huh, I can do the same by just looking at the won-loss record. You know, the actual reason they play the games. LOL

Look, I look at KenPom as much as anyone, trust me. And it definitely is a good tool. But, I don't think the nature of the metric is a good tool for NCAA tourney resume. Especially when looking at it in January and February.
 

builtbadgers said:
The Gophers best years by far have been their best years, the worst Kenpom years by far the worst. It is true for every team and it can be researched in 5 minutes for free.
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I'm not exactly sure what you are saying here because it is mostly gibberish...

But in 2017 when the Gophers were a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Gophers were ranked #37 in Kenpom..

Kenpom has rarely been favorable for the Gophers, even when we are clearly one of the best teams in the country
 

SelectionSunday said:
Wins Obtained: 16

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

The Big Boys -- no worse than 3-4 (1-1)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue

50-50s -- no worse than 3-4 (2-3)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-2 (4-1)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

Big Ten: 12-8 (6-4 so far)
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Bump
 

Wins Obtained: 16

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

The Big Boys -- no worse than 3-4 (1-2)
 Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue (lost 63-73)
 Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue

50-50s -- no worse than 3-4 (2-3)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-2 (4-1)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

Big Ten: 12-8 (6-5 so far)

Updated for SS
 

game on wednesday is huge.
 

I see us finishing

vs Wisconsin-Win
@ Michigan State-Loss
@ Nebraska-Win
vs Indiana-Win
vs Michigan-Loss
@ Rutgers-Win
@ Northwestern-Win
vs Purdue-Loss
@ Maryland-Loss

This is likely how the games will be predicted but I could see us losing at home against Indiana and on the road at Northwestern but then winning at home against Purdue or on the road against Maryland. Not saying this will happen but some upsets that I could see happening.
 

Otis said:
Wins Obtained: 16

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

The Big Boys -- no worse than 3-4 (1-2)
 Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue (lost 63-73)
 Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue

50-50s -- no worse than 3-4 (2-3)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-2 (4-1)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

Big Ten: 12-8 (6-5 so far)

Updated for SS
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Go ahead and take this over.
 

Lakers612 said:
But in 2017 when the Gophers were a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Gophers were ranked #37 in Kenpom..
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That's actually a point in favor of KenPom, given that the Gophers should've been seeded somewhere between 8 and 10. Most of this board was saying how overseeded the Gophers were.

Lakers612 said:
Kenpom has rarely been favorable for the Gophers, even when we are clearly one of the best teams in the country
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LOL. When was this again?
 

Question for SA, how is the bubble shaping up? Any shot the gophers get in with 9 conference wins? Obviously maybe would take an additional one in the BTT obviously but I’m just curious as to what you see those chances as. Particularly as some of our non con wins look better
 

upnorthkid said:
Question for SA, how is the bubble shaping up? Any shot the gophers get in with 9 conference wins? Obviously maybe would take an additional one in the BTT obviously but I’m just curious as to what you see those chances as. Particularly as some of our non con wins look better
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The bubble sucks
13-10 creighton and 13-10 butler are on most bracketologists first 4 out

BUtlers best won is Florida and their second best win is creighton
Creightons best won is Georgetown and second best win is either Clemson or Butler.
 

Don't expect us to win at Mich St, just like didn't expect a win at Purdue (but they came out great).

Got to have @Neb and then home vs Indiana. Got to have them. Otherwise, I think the NCAAT hopes are done.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Don't expect us to win at Mich St, just like didn't expect a win at Purdue (but they came out great).

Got to have @Neb and then home vs Indiana. Got to have them. Otherwise, I think the NCAAT hopes are done.
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Those two wins alone won't get us there. Those two wins alone probably don't get us to the NIT. Need four wins anyway for the NCAA tournament. I don't think three will do it unless we win a one (or maybe even two) in the Big Ten tournament.
 

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