Other B1G Games

Not seeing the point of comparing to Bueckers. She’s the #1 2020 prospect in the country, and high school competition is relatively easy. If there’s a need to compare, doing it with Staples (or maybe somebody with a comparable recruit ranking) probably makes the most sense.

Should we compare how Stollings is doing to Whalen, because that also makes about as much sense.


I’m curious if Utah ever offered Staples. I watched Utah beat Stanford today. They have a decent looking club. Oops.

Comparison mostly for fun. Per your point, only semi-valid comparison would be Finau to Staples. So may be that Staples is a better get than Finau. Not intending to pick on Finau though. She obviously is being challenged by being thrown into a starting role on a team with more injuries than the Gophers. Through that she will improve. Staples too will improve as she gradually takes on a bigger role.
 

Comparison mostly for fun. Per your point, only semi-valid comparison would be Finau to Staples. So may be that Staples is a better get than Finau. Not intending to pick on Finau though. She obviously is being challenged by being thrown into a starting role on a team with more injuries than the Gophers. Through that she will improve. Staples too will improve as she gradually takes on a bigger role.

Actually, in Staples first four games (that she had any assists or turnovers) she had 3 assists and 8 turnovers for a .375 assist to turnover ratio. That's an even fairer comparison to Finau's .4 assist to turnover ratio in her first four games. So actually, they both had inauspicious starts as far as ball control and playmaking goes. By the time Finau has played as many games, she might be a similar caliber player to Staples.

In subsequent games since those raw rooky days, Staples has gone 11 assists and 8 turnovers for a 1.375 assist to turnover ratio. That figure is ever-so-slightly better than Brunson and Bell's assist to turnover ratio statistics for the full season (1.359 and 1.367, respectively). Although all three of these stats are not particularly great (and thus at least partly to blame for some B1G losses), we posters are no longer justified to be griping about Staples ball control/playmaking, as she has (after forgiving her first few rookie games) reached the norm established by the starting point/shooting guards.

By the way, Perez season (again, through Purdue game) assist to turnover ratio is 1.25, only slightly lower than the other three guards. What she brings to the table (besides her three-point shooting) is probably weighted toward her defensive skills.
 
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Tonight's Iowa at Michigan game has been postponed to tomorrow at 11:00 AM central time.

Tonight's Penn State at Michigan State game has been postponed to 27 February.
 

Tonight's Iowa at Michigan game has been postponed to tomorrow at 11:00 AM central time.

Tonight's Penn State at Michigan State game has been postponed to 27 February.

Were these games to be televised by BTN? The men played last night in frigid weather, but they were on BTN.
 

Were these games to be televised by BTN? The men played last night in frigid weather, but they were on BTN.

The Iowa/Michigan game was supposed to be the first game on BTN. Iowa made it to Ann Arbor before the postponement.
 


Michigan (4-6) handily defeated Iowa (7-3), 90-81, this afternoon. The Michigan press helped keep the Hawkeyes at bay most of the way. Deja Church and Akienreh Johnson each scored 19 points leading the Wolverines while Megan Gustafson 27 and Kathleen Doyle, 22 points, led the Hawkeyes. Iowa's Stewart and Doyle (much to the delight of Michigan fans) fouled out.
 

Michigan State moves atop the chaos for now by beating Patberg-less Indiana 77-61. It's possible that 7 teams could be 7-7 after Thursday's games. That would take a few upsets though including Nebraska over Maryland.

7-5 Michigan State
7-6 Purdue
7-6 Michigan
7-6 Northwestern
6-7 Ohio State
6-7 Nebraska
6-7 Indiana
6-7 Minnesota
 

If only the Gophers had won the two games they clearly should have won -- Nebraska, Illinois -- they'd be sitting prettyish. Even with those losses, it's odd to see that the B1G is so nuts that they're only a game and a half out of a double-bye in the conference tournament. They have a bunch of tough games first, but that MSU game could loom large!
 

Michigan State moves atop the chaos for now by beating Patberg-less Indiana 77-61. It's possible that 7 teams could be 7-7 after Thursday's games. That would take a few upsets though including Nebraska over Maryland.

7-5 Michigan State
7-6 Purdue
7-6 Michigan
7-6 Northwestern
6-7 Ohio State
6-7 Nebraska
6-7 Indiana
6-7 Minnesota

That #4 seed in the tournament would be very helpful in winning it. With the double bye, they would only need to win three games to take the crown and move into the NCAA’s. Something to push for.
 



If only the Gophers had won the two games they clearly should have won -- Nebraska, Illinois -- they'd be sitting prettyish. Even with those losses, it's odd to see that the B1G is so nuts that they're only a game and a half out of a double-bye in the conference tournament. They have a bunch of tough games first, but that MSU game could loom large!

That’s an extremely good point.

If the Gophers had simply done due diligence on those two (very winnable and no-brainer winnable, respectively) games, we’d be at 8-5 instead of 6-7, and instead of being in the lower half of the pack, we’d be leading the pack. Not to mention that Nebraska would be a notch lower too.

So we’d be behind Iowa and Maryland and ahead of the pack with those two hypothetical wins. All the difference in the world.

Basically, injuries plus lack of meaningful bench, plus Bell turning it over in 4Q, plus generally too conservative play in 4Q, plus not hitting outside shots so that defenses could pack the paint with a zone, let Illinois discover a way to beat us. Then Nebraska and a whole host of a others were able to leverage the same things to beat us too.

We might have lost to Iowa and the Michigans in any event, and Maryland is going to be tough to beat, but given the way the pack turned out to be structured (so middle-centric), it’s really only the Illinois and Nebraska losses that are looming large in their role of keeping us out of the NCAAs.

Not that I’ve watched that closely, but I’ve never before seen the middle of the pack be this numerous and this tightly grouped, this close to the end of the season. When they say, “parity in the Big Ten,” they’re not kidding.
 

Yes, the double-bye is definitely something to shoot for now. With the Gophers' lack of depth, it is going to be very difficult for them to make a deep run in the BIG tourney with only 5 or 6 contributing players.
 

Looks like Wisconsin is going to be a good neighbor and knock off MSU tonight. :clap:
 

Big ten is getting alot more interesting. Rutgers is sliding now too and has 2 tough road games coming up in Michigan and Indiana.
 



Rutgers, in the middle of a slide, is a beatable team for the Gophers, even on the road. They put up only 39 points in a home loss to OSU tonight. MSU is certainly a beatable team for the Gophers in Williams Arena as the Spartans have not been good on the road in BIG play. I don't think the Gophers can beat Maryland on the road, but stranger things have happened. Either way, 3 of 4 wins to finish the BIG regular season would be great and could put them on the bubble heading into the BIG tourney. Again, the non-conference schedule would still be the achilles heel, but 3 of 4 wins would get the Gophers in the conversation.
 

After Thursday's games:

Wednesday, March 6
#12 Penn State (3-10) vs #13 Wisconsin (3-10) - 12:30 BTN
#11 Nebraska (6-8) vs (14) Illinois (2-12) - 3:00 BTN

Thursday, March 7
#8 Ohio State (7-7) vs #9 Minnesota (7-7) - 11:00 BTN
#5 Northwestern (8-6) vs PSU/WISC - 1:30 BTN
#7 Purdue (7-7) vs #10 Indiana (6-8) - 5:30 BTN
#6 Michigan State (7-6) vs NEB/ILL - 8:00 BTN

Friday, March 8
#1 Maryland (12-2) vs OSU/MINN - 11:00 BTN
#4 Michigan (8-6) vs NW/PSU/WISC - 1:30 BTN
#2 Iowa (11-3) vs PUR/IND - 5:30 BTN
#3 Rutgers (9-4) vs MSU/NEB/ILL - 8:00 BTN


Tiebreakers:
8-6: Michigan 1-0 vs. Northwestern
7-7: Purdue 2-1, Ohio State 1-1, Minnesota 1-2
6-8: Indiana 1-0 vs. Nebraska
3-10: Penn State 2-0 vs. Wisconsin
 

The following two Big Ten rankings are taken right after games of Thur, Feb 14 ...

Records include (prior Big Ten record for pack teams only); current Big Ten record; [Overall record].

Official Big Ten ranking - ordered first by Big Ten record:

Maryland 12-2 [23-2]
Iowa 11-3 [20-5]
Rutgers 9-4 [17-7]
Michigan (7-6) 8-6 [17-9]
Northwestern (7-6) 8-6 [15-10]
Michigan State (7-5) 7-6 [17-7]
Minnesota (6-7) 7-7 [18-7]
Purdue (7-6) 7-7 [16-11]
Ohio State (6-7) 7-7 [11-12]
Indiana (6-7) 6-8 [17-9]
Nebraska (6-7) 6-8 [11-14]
Penn State 3-10 [10-14]
Wisconsin 3-10 [12-13]
Illinois 2-12 [10-15]

NCAA ranking - ordered first by overall NCAA record:

Maryland 12-2 [23-2]
Iowa 11-3 [20-5]
Minnesota (6-7) 7-7 [18-7]
Rutgers 9-4 [17-7]
Michigan State (7-5) 7-6 [17-7]
Michigan (7-6) 8-6 [17-9]
Indiana (6-7) 6-8 [17-9]
Northwestern (7-6) 8-6 [15-10]
Purdue (7-6) 7-7 [16-11]
Ohio State (6-7) 7-7 [11-12]
Wisconsin 3-10 [12-13]
Nebraska (6-7) 6-8 [11-14]
Penn State 3-10 [10-14]
Illinois 2-12 [10-15]

The first table shows that with the Valentines Day win over Purdue, Minnesota rises to the exact middle of the crowded Big Ten pack. It is one of three teams with a 7-7 Big Ten record.

The second table shows that if you use overall NCAA record as primary sort (and Big Ten record as secondary sort), then Minnesota is actually in third place among Big Ten teams. Right behind Maryland and Iowa. Of course you must discount this by the fact that we played so many cupcake teams. A half of a (NCAA) game behind us, also with 7 overall losses, are Rutgers and Michigan State. So with a next win, those two could knock us down a NCAA slot or two.

For now, let’s just enjoy being in NCAA cupcake third place among Big Ten teams.

All this may be meaningless after SoS gets done ripping our RPI to shreds. But it does show that if we win 3 out of 4 of our next games (and if we had just said no to playing a couple horribly rated non-league teams) then we’d be right in the playoff hunt.
 
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The following two Big Ten rankings are taken right after games of Thur, Feb 14 ...

Records include (prior Big Ten record for pack teams only); current Big Ten record; [Overall record].

Official Big Ten ranking - ordered first by Big Ten record:

Maryland 12-2 [23-2]
Iowa 11-3 [20-5]
Rutgers 9-4 [17-7]
Michigan (7-6) 8-6 [17-9]
Northwestern (7-6) 8-6 [15-10]
Michigan State (7-5) 7-6 [17-7]
Minnesota (6-7) 7-7 [18-7]
Purdue (7-6) 7-7 [16-11]
Ohio State (6-7) 7-7 [11-12]
Indiana (6-7) 6-8 [17-9]
Nebraska (6-7) 6-8 [11-14]
Penn State 3-10 [10-14]
Wisconsin 3-10 [12-13]
Illinois 2-12 [10-15]

NCAA ranking - ordered first by overall NCAA record:

Maryland 12-2 [23-2]
Iowa 11-3 [20-5]
Minnesota (6-7) 7-7 [18-7]
Rutgers 9-4 [17-7]
Michigan State (7-5) 7-6 [17-7]
Michigan (7-6) 8-6 [17-9]
Indiana (6-7) 6-8 [17-9]
Northwestern (7-6) 8-6 [15-10]
Purdue (7-6) 7-7 [16-11]
Ohio State (6-7) 7-7 [11-12]
Wisconsin 3-10 [12-13]
Nebraska (6-7) 6-8 [11-14]
Penn State 3-10 [10-14]
Illinois 2-12 [10-15]

The first table shows that with the Valentines Day win over Purdue, Minnesota rises to the exact middle of the crowded Big Ten pack. It is one of three teams with a 7-7 Big Ten record.

The second table shows that if you use overall NCAA record as primary sort (and Big Ten record as secondary sort), then Minnesota is actually in third place among Big Ten teams. Right behind Maryland and Iowa. Of course you must discount this by the fact that we played so many cupcake teams. A half of a (NCAA) game behind us, also with 7 overall losses, are Rutgers and Michigan State. So with a next win, those two could knock us down a NCAA slot or two.

For now, let’s just enjoy being in NCAA cupcake third place among Big Ten teams.

All this may be meaningless after SoS gets done ripping our RPI to shreds. But it does show that if we win 3 out of 4 of our next games (and if we had just said no to playing a couple horribly rated non-league teams) then we’d be right in the playoff hunt.
I just really think we will beat maryland. Their size isn't physical like other teams. If they don't shoot well from the outside, our top 6 will outplay their top 6...
 

I just really think we will beat maryland. Their size isn't physical like other teams. If they don't shoot well from the outside, our top 6 will outplay their top 6...

That would be great if we could beat @Maryland.

That would leave Michigan State as our major challenge (hopefully we could “hold serve” against the other two teams). Gamer has us beating MSU by one point, on last check.

If we could win out the remaining Big Ten season, we have at least a chance to tilt the bubble our way.
 

That would be great if we could beat @Maryland.

That would leave Michigan State as our major challenge (hopefully we could “hold serve” against the other two teams). Gamer has us beating MSU by one point, on last check.

If we could win out the remaining Big Ten season, we have at least a chance to tilt the bubble our way.

Just as a side note, Gamer/RealTime RPI remains confused. Currently, MN is listed with 18 wins and a projected two more but, somehow, that adds up to 19 projected wins.
 

Just as a side note, Gamer/RealTime RPI remains confused. Currently, MN is listed with 18 wins and a projected two more but, somehow, that adds up to 19 projected wins.

Yeah, thanks, I noticed too that its projections were confused. That’s why I didn’t quote projections, which I otherwise wanted to.

I assume its current numbers are OK, but it’s been wrong on those before too.
 

Speaking of RPI, after the @Purdue win, our current RPI is apparently 103 and our SoS is 144, per RealtimeRPI. [Albeit, note again that its future projections are confused.]

The huge anchors around our necks, inflicting mortal wounds to both our SoS and therefore also to our RPI, are the four teams whose own RPIs lie in the 300s, plus a couple in the high 200s:

AR Pine Bluff, RPI = 347
Coppin State, RPI = 325
New Hampshire, RPI = 321
Incarnate Word, RPI = 315
Cornell, RPI = 275
Air Force, RPI = 265

Since there are 350ish D1 teams, all of the above are in the bottom 100 women’s basketball teams. It is these six teams that are sabotaging our SoS. Those few teams damage our SoS so badly that we would have to play 50 really good teams in order for the good-teams’ better record to offset the damage - but there are only 23 teams (other than the above) in our schedule so it’s impossible to play another 50 teams.

This brings up the question raised in another thread, namely what in the world was Stollings thinking when she glibly offered up the Gophers to play over half of their non-league games against bottom-100 teams? Which also comprises over 20% of all regular-season games! [And then promptly left for Texas.]

Of course we’re going to win these six games handily (unless we mess up even more than the Illinois game). But just playing these six teams does irreparable damage to our SoS. And thus tanks our RPI. In fact, the negative aspect of just playing these bottom-dwellers does far more RPI damage than can possibly be recouped by beating all of them (which we did). Beating them only partially recoups the loss of playing them.

In other words, playing any of these bottom-100 teams is always a lose/lose proposition. Rule of thumb to future WBB schedule planners: Absolutely DO NOT schedule any D1 teams whose last-year’s rank (and unfortunately, last year’s RPI is the only thing we have to go on for that) is worse than #250! Unless for some crazy reason you have to. [I don’t think NCAA forces you to play bad teams - correct me if I’m wrong.] You can schedule St. Thomas if you want since D3 teams are discarded for ranking purposes.

The Lady Gophers are at least a top-50 club this year. [Some thought we were top-12, but they didn’t notice all the cupcakes we ate.]

Go look at the top-50 ranked WBB teams, and see how many of them play half-a-dozen bottom-100 teams.

So here’s what would be a rotten shame. If (say) we win out our remaining games and are technically then third ranked (as we are now) among Big-Ten teams when ranked by NCAA win-loss record, yet due solely to our horrible SoS, we don’t get an invitation to the NCAA playoffs. That could potentially happen. If so, the fault would be solely on the ridiculously bad schedule - in particular the bad decision to play the above six bottom-100 teams. We could have (in some alternate reality) played six teams ranked between 150 and 250 instead, and still beaten those replacement teams, and thus had the identical season win-loss record, but without the extreme impact on SoS, and thus a good RPI, and been in the tournament.

Moral: We need to take care in scheduling next year.
 
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With the Gophers high RPI number not much talk of Gophers in Braketology discussion. High Post hoops or Summit Hoops have the Gophers as the 8th team out with 7 BIG teams in: Maryland, Iowa, Rutgers, MSU, INDY, Purdue and Michigan as one of the last 4 teams in. I believe this was before Thursday night’s results.
 

Speaking of RPI, after the @Purdue win, our current RPI is apparently 103 and our SoS is 144, per RealtimeRPI. [Albeit, note again that its future projections are confused.]

The huge anchors around our necks, inflicting mortal wounds to both our SoS and therefore also to our RPI, are the four teams whose own RPIs lie in the 300s, plus a couple in the high 200s:

AR Pine Bluff, RPI = 347
Coppin State, RPI = 325
New Hampshire, RPI = 321
Incarnate Word, RPI = 315
Cornell, RPI = 275
Air Force, RPI = 265

Since there are 350ish D1 teams, all of the above are in the bottom 100 women’s basketball teams. It is these six teams that are sabotaging our SoS. Those few teams damage our SoS so badly that we would have to play 50 really good teams in order for the good-teams’ better record to offset the damage - but there are only 23 teams (other than the above) in our schedule so it’s impossible to play another 50 teams.

This brings up the question raised in another thread, namely what in the world was Stollings thinking when she glibly offered up the Gophers to play over half of their non-league games against bottom-100 teams? Which also comprises over 20% of all regular-season games! [And then promptly left for Texas.]

Of course we’re going to win these six games handily (unless we mess up even more than the Illinois game). But just playing these six teams does irreparable damage to our SoS. And thus tanks our RPI. In fact, the negative aspect of just playing these bottom-dwellers does far more RPI damage than can possibly be recouped by beating all of them (which we did). Beating them only partially recoups the loss of playing them.

In other words, playing any of these bottom-100 teams is always a lose/lose proposition. Rule of thumb to future WBB schedule planners: Absolutely DO NOT schedule any D1 teams whose last-year’s rank (and unfortunately, last year’s RPI is the only thing we have to go on for that) is worse than #250! Unless for some crazy reason you have to. [I don’t think NCAA forces you to play bad teams - correct me if I’m wrong.] You can schedule St. Thomas if you want since D3 teams are discarded for ranking purposes.

The Lady Gophers are at least a top-50 club this year. [Some thought we were top-12, but they didn’t notice all the cupcakes we ate.]

Go look at the top-50 ranked WBB teams, and see how many of them play half-a-dozen bottom-100 teams.

So here’s what would be a rotten shame. If (say) we win out our remaining games and are technically then third ranked (as we are now) among Big-Ten teams when ranked by NCAA win-loss record, yet due solely to our horrible SoS, we don’t get an invitation to the NCAA playoffs. That could potentially happen. If so, the fault would be solely on the ridiculously bad schedule - in particular the bad decision to play the above six bottom-100 teams. We could have (in some alternate reality) played six teams ranked between 150 and 250 instead, and still beaten those replacement teams, and thus had the identical season win-loss record, but without the extreme impact on SoS, and thus a good RPI, and been in the tournament.

Moral: We need to take care in scheduling next year.

Does the selection committee still give extra weight to performance at the end of the season? If so, that might provide some help, but maybe still not enough. I believe the Gophers are undefeated since implementing their lineup change.
 

Does anyone know who on the basketball staff actually does the scheduling? Am I correct in thinking it would be the Director of Operations? Either way, the coach is ultimately responsible, as she approves the schedule. So Stollings should be primarily responsible for this terrible non-conference schedule. (But I'll also point out that the AD could be held partially responsible...to a lesser extent.) The Gophers can't even take credit for setting up the game against a ranked Syracuse team as that was set up for them by the BIG as part of the interconference challenge. Not only is a patsy schedule like this year's non-conference schedule, a negative factor when it comes to NCAA tourney selection, it's also not fair to season ticket holders or prospective single game ticket buyers who would surely enjoy occasional competitive games instead of blowouts. Someone previously asked why we don't at least schedule more regional games against teams like Green Bay, Iowa State, South Dakota, South Dakota State, North Dakota, North Dakota State, Marquette, DePaul, Drake, etc. Is the only reason we don't schedule any of these teams because it makes too much sense? They don't have to do home-and-home scheduling with all of them, but they could do that with a few of them. Those teams would have to be interested in playing in Minneapolis, as most of them recruit Minnesota.

On another matter, besides the terrible non-conference schedule, it has been correctly noted that the loss to Illinois looms large when it comes to NCAA tourney selection. Maybe an unlikely win over Maryland in College Park would offset this bad loss. Last year the Gophers played a ranked Maryland team in Williams Arena and the Gophers trounced the Terps with a barrage of 3-point shots. If the Gophers can win 3 or 4 of the final four BIG games and if they can make it to the BIG championship game, they should be back in NCAA tourney consideration. Unlikely, yes...but possible.
 

Does the selection committee still give extra weight to performance at the end of the season? If so, that might provide some help, but maybe still not enough. I believe the Gophers are undefeated since implementing their lineup change.

No. At least they aren't supposed to.
 

I don't feel Illinois is the only loss that killing the gophers right now. The loss to Ohio State and Nebraska (both teams under .500) is up there as well. Last season and this season's NC schedule was both cupcake central. Last year the bad loss was at San Diego, similar to the Illinois loss this year. However they didn't have any more bad losses. In fact they had wins again Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, and Twice against Maryland. Also, despite it being a loss, they played up to seconds away from a win vs Ohio St in the Big Ten tournament. They had 20 wins and still were only one of the last four in last year. I simply think those 3 losses paired with yet another Crappy NC schedule makes to where their only option to getting in NCAA is winning the Conference tournament. And when Stollings was here, she stated her and the assistants made the schedule, this falls on her IMO. However I don't feel if the gophers don't make the NCAA next year or going forward it will be due to SOS or cupcake NC.
 

What about record against Top 25 teams? I've heard that mentioned when it comes to teams on the bubble. Right now we are 2-2. If we took 2 of the final 3, and went 1-1 against ranked teams in the BIG10 tourney, we'd be 5-4 against top 25 teams. That would indicate we are qualified to play in the top 64, wouldn't it?
 

What about record against Top 25 teams? I've heard that mentioned when it comes to teams on the bubble. Right now we are 2-2. If we took 2 of the final 3, and went 1-1 against ranked teams in the BIG10 tourney, we'd be 5-4 against top 25 teams. That would indicate we are qualified to play in the top 64, wouldn't it?

That sounds perfectly logical and perfectly fair to me. Whether or not it works that way is another question.

I don’t know whether instructions to the committee say “Be fair” or “Consider wins against top-25 teams as offsets against bad losses” or “Be logical.” For that matter, we don’t know whether any of the committee members ever took “Symbolic Logic 101.”
 

What about record against Top 25 teams? I've heard that mentioned when it comes to teams on the bubble. Right now we are 2-2. If we took 2 of the final 3, and went 1-1 against ranked teams in the BIG10 tourney, we'd be 5-4 against top 25 teams. That would indicate we are qualified to play in the top 64, wouldn't it?

Against the RPI top 25 we are 1-2

10 Syracuse Win
12 Iowa Loss
24 Michigan State Loss

Against the RPI 26-50 we are 2-1

26 Rutgers Win
44 Indiana Win
45 Michigan Loss
 

Is MSU at #24 even after losing to Wisconsin?
 




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