Tyler Johnson's Odds to Head to the NFL Draft?

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LM21

LM21

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I'm in a dynasty fantasy football league with a bunch of my buddies from college. I'm trying to employ the glass-half-full approach by saying my team is in "rebuilding mode" as I got last place in the league. The good news is that I have the #1, #3, and #7 pick in next year's rookie draft.

With that in mind, I was starting to do a little research about the top skill position players in the 2019 NFL Draft. I was surprised to find that in the first article I clicked on, Tyler Johnson was rated as the 8th most valuable skill player (for fantasy football purposes) in the draft, assuming he decides to forego his senior season at the U.

https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/2019-dynasty-rookie-mock-draft/

"Tyler Johnson will be one of the lesser known players on this list but is every bit as talented as any WR in the country. Johnson has good size at 6’2” 200lbs and is one of the best route runners in the country. He does an excellent job of winning early in his routes and has a great feel for the soft spots in the defense. Johnson is versatile with the ability to line up anywhere on the field. His production shot up this season as he posted over 1,000 yards and double-digit TDs. It is too early to tell where Johnson will land in the draft, but he will certainly be a very productive player at the next level."

Everything that I have read says that this year is a relatively weak draft at the skill positions, and that 2020 will be much stronger. I am firmly in the camp that TJ would benefit greatly from another year with the Gophers, but is are we at all concerned that he decides to throw his name into the draft given the lower level of competition this year?
 
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Hopefully TJ gets some good advice in regards to his true draft stock for this season and makes the decision that will be in his best interest. If he would get drafted pretty high then it might make a lot of sense to go pro now, however if he is likely to end up being drafted in the late rounds it would seem he would be better served coming back and getting another year of development under his belt at the college level.

Obviously we all want him back in maroon and gold next year if possible but if he does go pro I hope it works out well for him.
 

I think Tyler leaves and he gets drafted in the first three rounds.

He rounds great routes, he is a great athlete and it's a weak draft for WRs.

He isn't 6'4" and he won't run a 4.4 40, but I think he'll grade out somewhere between Stefon Diggs and DJ Moore (under 6'3" route-runner types).

His drops aren't a huge issue, because they aren't like Patterson/Williamson where they are the result of being body catchers, unnatural receiver types. They are bad, but he is a polished receiver and will be a good pro. IMO.
 

I'm not sure if his draft stock that good. Probably fifth round or lower right now. It would be a mistake to declare this year unless something dramatically changes between now and the draft.
 

LM21 said:
I'm in a dynasty fantasy football league with a bunch of my buddies from college. I'm trying to employ the glass-half-full approach by saying my team is in "rebuilding mode" as I got last place in the league. The good news is that I have the #1, #3, and #7 pick in next year's rookie draft.

With that in mind, I was starting to do a little research about the top skill position players in the 2019 NFL Draft. I was surprised to find that in the first article I clicked on, Tyler Johnson was rated as the 8th most valuable skill player (for fantasy football purposes) in the draft, assuming he decides to forego his senior season at the U.

https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/2019-dynasty-rookie-mock-draft/

"Tyler Johnson will be one of the lesser known players on this list but is every bit as talented as any WR in the country. Johnson has good size at 6’2” 200lbs and is one of the best route runners in the country. He does an excellent job of winning early in his routes and has a great feel for the soft spots in the defense. Johnson is versatile with the ability to line up anywhere on the field. His production shot up this season as he posted over 1,000 yards and double-digit TDs. It is too early to tell where Johnson will land in the draft, but he will certainly be a very productive player at the next level."

Everything that I have read says that this year is a relatively weak draft at the skill positions, and that 2020 will be much stronger. I am firmly in the camp that TJ would benefit greatly from another year with the Gophers, but is are we at all concerned that he decides to throw his name into the draft given the lower level of competition this year?
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I think he'd have to have a spectacular year next year to go out, and even then I'm not sure. I have a tough time believing he'll still be the 8th best skill position player at the end of the year (others will come out of the woodwork). I will say he seemed to get over the drops about halfway through the season, which helps his case a lot.

I think a lot of it will depend on where the draft experts have him. If he's not first three rounds, it would make no sense to leave. I could see him being lower than that for a variety of factors.

To answer your question, I'm not worried about it, personally. If he leaves it means he was spectacular and that means the Gophers likely had a really good year. Assuming some of the new WR's are as good as advertised (unlike the busts of the Kill era), they should be able to replace him.

Having players starting to leave early consistently would be awesome because it would show how much better the talent on the team has been getting.
 


Lakeville Goldy said:
I think he'd have to have a spectacular year next year to go out, and even then I'm not sure. I have a tough time believing he'll still be the 8th best skill position player at the end of the year (others will come out of the woodwork). I will say he seemed to get over the drops about halfway through the season, which helps his case a lot.

I think a lot of it will depend on where the draft experts have him. If he's not first three rounds, it would make no sense to leave. I could see him being lower than that for a variety of factors.

To answer your question, I'm not worried about it, personally. If he leaves it means he was spectacular and that means the Gophers likely had a really good year. Assuming some of the new WR's are as good as advertised (unlike the busts of the Kill era), they should be able to replace him.

Having players starting to leave early consistently would be awesome because it would show how much better the talent on the team has been getting.
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So just to be clear, the question I posed would be for him to enter the draft this season after the bowl game. TJ will be a senior next year so he'll be gone after our 2019 season either way.
 

I am thinking it’s a 60% chance he enters this year. He could certainly get better next year and get stronger but he could also get injured. I think he could be a late second to early fourth rounder this year.
Selfishly I hope we get to see him one more year with the Gophers. The team has a lot of young talent at WR, but he was a machine this year.
 

Obviously this isn't dispositive, but the fact that he is playing in the bowl game could be a sign that he plans on returning next year.
 

If he were a step faster, he'd be gone.

Not sure he gets faster next year.
 



Obviously I hope he stays but if he does go, it’s a good thing in the long run because pj will absolutely capitalize on that and we will start to see kids drooling at the idea of playing for him and the talent level will increase exponentially at the wideout position here
 






Studwell55 said:
I think he's slower.
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Interesting. You might be right. I know he doesn’t have top end speed but he is a damn fine receiver. I still like the Gophers offense without him next year, but it could be really dynamic with him back.
Decker has Webber throwing him the call for how many years?
Johnson has had Leidner for 1, Croft/Rhoda, and Annexstad/Morgan. Pretty good numbers considering.
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
Interesting. You might be right. I know he doesn’t have top end speed but he is a damn fine receiver. I still like the Gophers offense without him next year, but it could be really dynamic with him back.
Decker has Webber throwing him the call for how many years?
Johnson has had Leidner for 1, Croft/Rhoda, and Annexstad/Morgan. Pretty good numbers considering.
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If Clark can chunk it like I think he will at the college level, TJ is in for a GREAT senior season if he stays.
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
Do you think he is as fast as Decker was? Or Thielen?
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He is for sure slower than Thielen (4.45 40), probably slower than Decker (Decker was a 4.54 40). I thought I heard the stat once that Eric Decker only had ONE dropped pass in college too. I just know from the eye test that Decker was a considerably better college receiver than Johnson. He had that Cris Carter-like ability to time his jumps and get a little push-off in at just the right time to make the catch.
 

Don't have to be really fast to play slot. Smaller, quicker guys usually are the ones successful there.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Don't have to be really fast to play slot. Smaller, quicker guys usually are the ones successful there.
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Do you see him as small and quick? He is 6-2 200.

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Yeah I think the folks calling TJ small are out of tune with the NFL. The trend towards bigger receivers has tapered off and 6’2” has always been excellent size for a wideout in the league.

As for speed....if he can run in the 4.5’s, he should be fine considering his size and route running. Plus, an extra year in college won’t automatically translate into a higher draft position. I hope he comes back and leads what could be the best Gopher offense since Maroney and Barber but he might be hard pressed to put up the same numbers even if he improves.


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Word said:
He is for sure slower than Thielen (4.45 40), probably slower than Decker (Decker was a 4.54 40). I thought I heard the stat once that Eric Decker only had ONE dropped pass in college too. I just know from the eye test that Decker was a considerably better college receiver than Johnson. He had that Cris Carter-like ability to time his jumps and get a little push-off in at just the right time to make the catch.
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I would expect Tyler to run a high 4.4-low 4.5
 

It's possible but I'm thinking he stays. He is still very new to the position and one more year of seasoning could move him up the draft board. I believe Cory Davis can be a role model for him to follow.
 

I don't give a darn about super low 40 times. The man can get open consitently, make athletic catches, make athletic moves after the catch, and make clutch catches under pressure (huge). Whether Tyler tests the draft this year or next, I'll be rooting for him....great for the program too.

Larry Fitzgerald - 4.63 seconds
Jerry Rice - 4.71 seconds
Cris Carter - 4.63
Anquan Boldin - 4.71
Chad Johnson - 4.57
randon Lloyd - 4.62
Hines Ward - 4.55
Brandon Marshall - 4.52
Dez Bryant - 4.52
Antonio Brown - 4.47

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/993810
 

Word said:
He is for sure slower than Thielen (4.45 40), probably slower than Decker (Decker was a 4.54 40). I thought I heard the stat once that Eric Decker only had ONE dropped pass in college too. I just know from the eye test that Decker was a considerably better college receiver than Johnson. He had that Cris Carter-like ability to time his jumps and get a little push-off in at just the right time to make the catch.
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I agree with you on Decker, TJ is not on his level. TJ would likely run somewhere between a 4.6 - 4.7 40 today. He has gotten tracked down from behind several times in college and doesn't have top end speed for a WR. He'll be back next year.
 


I love TJ6. I just don’t see him going out as I don’t think he is fast enough to get drafted high. Sure, you can find exceptions - and he may be one - but most (not all) of those have bigger size than TJ6 to offset it. He is great and I hope to see him next year in maroon and gold and that he proves me wrong in 2020.


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Spoofin said:
I love TJ6. I just don’t see him going out as I don’t think he is fast enough to get drafted high. Sure, you can find exceptions - and he may be one - but most (not all) of those have bigger size than TJ6 to offset it. He is great and I hope to see him next year in maroon and gold and that he proves me wrong in 2020.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah... I see him staying and having a monster year. His speed is fine.
 

It's hard to know what is in anyone's mind.

My heart wants to see him here as long as possible, but if he goes I wish him the best.
 


Panthadad2 said:
I don't give a darn about super low 40 times. The man can get open consitently, make athletic catches, make athletic moves after the catch, and make clutch catches under pressure (huge). Whether Tyler tests the draft this year or next, I'll be rooting for him....great for the program too.

Larry Fitzgerald - 4.63 seconds
Jerry Rice - 4.71 seconds
Cris Carter - 4.63
Anquan Boldin - 4.71
Chad Johnson - 4.57
randon Lloyd - 4.62
Hines Ward - 4.55
Brandon Marshall - 4.52
Dez Bryant - 4.52
Antonio Brown - 4.47

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/993810
Click to expand...
I think we are all rooting for TJ. Great college player and one of our better receivers of the last 20 years. I hope he has a great NFL career too, but I just think he is a borderline NFL prospect. I would be happy to be wrong though.

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