A Review of the 2014 Recruiting Class

John Galt

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I was ripped for choosing 2015, so here goes with 2014. A few of these guys were redshirt seniors on the roster this year, and several others graduated and finished their eligibility in 2017. Rodney will be back for a 6th season next year, so he will be the only remaining player from this class on the roster following the bowl game.
This class was ranked 57th nationally, and 11th in the B1G. https://247sports.com/college/minnesota/Season/2014-Football/Commits/

The class had 21 enrollees plus Rashaun Croney, who never made it into school. The headliner of the class was Jeff Jones, the highest-rated recruit in the history of Gopher football. Unfortunately for Jeff and fans, he gave it all up for a life of crime and drugs. Jones failed to ever play in a single game. Five of the 22 recruits never played a single game or made it past year 1 (Jones, McKinzy, Krizancic, Gant and Croney). 12 of the 22 never finished their career as Gophers - Jones, Mayes, Holland, Elmore, McKinzy (the top 5 rated recruits didn't finish their careers as Gophers), Gentry, James, Krizancic, Rasmussen, Kafo, Gant, Croney). Of the 12 that left, only Elmore was a consistent starter and impact player. Here is how the remaining 10 shake out:

Andrew Stelter - solid contributor on the d-line, but played sparingly as a senior
Rodney Smith - a home run recruit. Will go down as one of the top 5 Gopher RBs of all-time.
Jerry Gibson - played sparingly this year as a redshirt senior.
Brandon Lingen - appeared to be very good when healthy as an underclassman, but his career was derailed by injuries. Starter when healthy.
Steve Richardson - a multi-year starter
Everett Williams - played sparingly
Cody Poock - started as a junior, but played sparingly as a senior after being beaten out by Barber
Jared Weyler - multi-year starter and very good offensive linemen
Gary Moore - contributor
Jon Celestin - multi-year starter

This was a class that makes it look like the recruiting rankings don't matter. The top players in the class had little to no success as D-1 football players, while many of the mid-level recruits were solid multi-year contributors, including one who is an all-time great. We ended up with 5 consistent starters from this class - Rodney, Lingen, Richardson, Weyler and Celestin. The class didn't have a functional QB, and I would imagine the 3 WR recruits caught less than 5 career passes. This class was definitely better than the 2015 class, but still lacked the number of starters and top-end talent that is needed to win the West division.
 

Thanks for doing this again. BTW, I think it was unfair you were ripped on the other thread. Even if you do have an opinion, that particular post was unbiased IMO.
 

The receivers in that class grossly underperformed after appearing so good on paper.
 

Thanks


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I always enjoy a look at past recruiting classes. Just bad luck with this class. Can't fault them for some of the misses.
 




Always appreciate the homework. Thank you!

JTG[/B

Thanks, really appreciate your postings. I also tried to find a source for the 2015 class but gave up. Readings yours worked out great.
 

Appreciate these analysis. Always interesting to see how it ends up. Good stuff.
 



Appreciate these analysis. Always interesting to see how it ends up. Good stuff.

Agreed both this’s guy and Rockford do great jobs. Kill’s highest recruits are walking at NE,IA and WI. Not Kills fault - a program needs a rose bowl or 2 to get a strong walk on program. Leaving for health reasons...fine. Trying to make the u hire you in a made up position is dumb. Bad mouthing the u for not kissing yer a22...unforgivable.
 

Thanks for all the hard work. It's very interesting, and revealing as well. Now we wait to hear about your deceptive and dishonest scheming that should make us all suspicious.
 

I was ripped for choosing 2015, so here goes with 2014. A few of these guys were redshirt seniors on the roster this year, and several others graduated and finished their eligibility in 2017. Rodney will be back for a 6th season next year, so he will be the only remaining player from this class on the roster following the bowl game.
This class was ranked 57th nationally, and 11th in the B1G. https://247sports.com/college/minnesota/Season/2014-Football/Commits/

The class had 21 enrollees plus Rashaun Croney, who never made it into school. The headliner of the class was Jeff Jones, the highest-rated recruit in the history of Gopher football. Unfortunately for Jeff and fans, he gave it all up for a life of crime and drugs. Jones failed to ever play in a single game. Five of the 22 recruits never played a single game or made it past year 1 (Jones, McKinzy, Krizancic, Gant and Croney). 12 of the 22 never finished their career as Gophers - Jones, Mayes, Holland, Elmore, McKinzy (the top 5 rated recruits didn't finish their careers as Gophers), Gentry, James, Krizancic, Rasmussen, Kafo, Gant, Croney). Of the 12 that left, only Elmore was a consistent starter and impact player. Here is how the remaining 10 shake out:

Andrew Stelter - solid contributor on the d-line, but played sparingly as a senior
Rodney Smith - a home run recruit. Will go down as one of the top 5 Gopher RBs of all-time.
Jerry Gibson - played sparingly this year as a redshirt senior.
Brandon Lingen - appeared to be very good when healthy as an underclassman, but his career was derailed by injuries. Starter when healthy.
Steve Richardson - a multi-year starter
Everett Williams - played sparingly
Cody Poock - started as a junior, but played sparingly as a senior after being beaten out by Barber
Jared Weyler - multi-year starter and very good offensive linemen
Gary Moore - contributor
Jon Celestin - multi-year starter

This was a class that makes it look like the recruiting rankings don't matter. The top players in the class had little to no success as D-1 football players, while many of the mid-level recruits were solid multi-year contributors, including one who is an all-time great. We ended up with 5 consistent starters from this class - Rodney, Lingen, Richardson, Weyler and Celestin. The class didn't have a functional QB, and I would imagine the 3 WR recruits caught less than 5 career passes. This class was definitely better than the 2015 class, but still lacked the number of starters and top-end talent that is needed to win the West division.

Agree with most of this JG - fair appraisal although I'd say Richardson and Celestin were more significant players. Richardson had some post-season recognition and I think Celestin did as well


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Connor Mayes contributed for three years, two of them as a starter.

Craig James was a good special teams and secondary depth guy in 2014 and 2015.

Emmitt Carpenter was a great walk on recruit. As was Jordahl. Walk on Miles Thomas was a two year starter at fullback.
 



I was ripped for choosing 2015, so here goes with 2014. A few of these guys were redshirt seniors on the roster this year, and several others graduated and finished their eligibility in 2017. Rodney will be back for a 6th season next year, so he will be the only remaining player from this class on the roster following the bowl game.
This class was ranked 57th nationally, and 11th in the B1G. https://247sports.com/college/minnesota/Season/2014-Football/Commits/

The class had 21 enrollees plus Rashaun Croney, who never made it into school. The headliner of the class was Jeff Jones, the highest-rated recruit in the history of Gopher football. Unfortunately for Jeff and fans, he gave it all up for a life of crime and drugs. Jones failed to ever play in a single game. Five of the 22 recruits never played a single game or made it past year 1 (Jones, McKinzy, Krizancic, Gant and Croney). 12 of the 22 never finished their career as Gophers - Jones, Mayes, Holland, Elmore, McKinzy (the top 5 rated recruits didn't finish their careers as Gophers), Gentry, James, Krizancic, Rasmussen, Kafo, Gant, Croney). Of the 12 that left, only Elmore was a consistent starter and impact player. Here is how the remaining 10 shake out:

Andrew Stelter - solid contributor on the d-line, but played sparingly as a senior
Rodney Smith - a home run recruit. Will go down as one of the top 5 Gopher RBs of all-time.
Jerry Gibson - played sparingly this year as a redshirt senior.
Brandon Lingen - appeared to be very good when healthy as an underclassman, but his career was derailed by injuries. Starter when healthy.
Steve Richardson - a multi-year starter
Everett Williams - played sparingly
Cody Poock - started as a junior, but played sparingly as a senior after being beaten out by Barber
Jared Weyler - multi-year starter and very good offensive linemen
Gary Moore - contributor
Jon Celestin - multi-year starter

This was a class that makes it look like the recruiting rankings don't matter. The top players in the class had little to no success as D-1 football players, while many of the mid-level recruits were solid multi-year contributors, including one who is an all-time great. We ended up with 5 consistent starters from this class - Rodney, Lingen, Richardson, Weyler and Celestin. The class didn't have a functional QB, and I would imagine the 3 WR recruits caught less than 5 career passes. This class was definitely better than the 2015 class, but still lacked the number of starters and top-end talent that is needed to win the West division.
What is the worst class ever in your opinion? I know that several of Brew's classes were really thin by the time those guys were upper-classmen.

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Thanks, excellent analysis.

The one comment I will make is regarding recruiting rankings. You are correct, and your data points to it, the rankings don’t guarantee sucess of high ranked kids or failure by low ranked kids. They are just a broad brush. If, however, you look at statistics, the % (not count) of five star recruits that make it to the NFL is greater than that of the four stars. The four stars is greater than the three stars (again % not count), and so on. I will try to find the statistics to post, but if you think about recruiting rankings as a numbers game, it makes more sense.
 
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Thanks John.
Well laid out and your 2015 class analysis was fair.


Just so everyone is aware, attrition across the Big Ten is about 45% for a class by the end of year 5, so these results aren't much different than that it appears, where in comparison, the 2015 class got hit harder.

Time Period Attrition Total Attrition
During Year 1 6.9% 6.9%
During Year 2 11.9% 18.8%
During Year 3 4.1% 22.9%
During Year 4 9.2% 32.1%
During Year 5 11.6% 43.7%
 
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Thanks, excellent analysis.

The one comment I will make is regarding recruiting rankings. You are correct, and your data points to it, the rankings don’t guarantee sucess of high ranked kids or failure by low ranked kids. They are just a broad brush. If, however, you look at statistics, the % (not count) of five star recruits that make it to the NFL is greater than that of the four stars. The four stars is greater than the three stars (again % not count), and so on. I will try to find the statistics to post, but if you think about recruiting rankings as a numbers game, it makes more sense.

The "broad brush" comment is spot on. There are no guarantees with recruits, just like there are no guarantees when teams play against each other. Things happen, and sometimes those things are unexpected -- for both better and worse.

The closer I watch, the more I realize how finely balanced things are.

(And thanks, guys, for the compliments.)

JTG
 

Thanks John.
Well laid out and your 2015 class analysis was fair.


Just so everyone is aware, attrition across the Big Ten is about 45% for a class by the end of year 5, so these results aren't much different than that it appears, where in comparison, the 2015 class got hit harder.

Time Period Attrition Total Attrition
During Year 1 6.9% 6.9%
During Year 2 11.9% 18.8%
During Year 3 4.1% 22.9%
During Year 4 9.2% 32.1%
During Year 5 11.6% 43.7%

Really appreciate data like this. One question, though: Do the percentages in years 4 and 5 represent just attrition (guys who transfer, give up, etc.), or do they also include those who graduate and move on? You'd think if someone stuck for the first three years, they'd hang on til the end. Just wondering.

JTG
 

Thank you for this and the 2015 analysis. I have a hard time remembering the hype around players when they sign and it's interesting to see how the classes did.
 

Thanks "Who is...?" for these articles. Also, Rockford for your context.
So if a class of 25 has a 32% attrition (per usual Big Ten) we should end up with 17 seniors per class on average. Of those 17 a not unreasonable expectation is that three quarters of that group contribute either as solid position players or rotators, or standout starters. (Here I'm assuming that if a player is available through his 4th year, he is a contributor.) Rounding to whole bodies, that would mean that an average Big Ten team would have up to 13 contributing seniors on their roster. JG's analysis indicates we have been falling far short of the average Big Ten team - and the Big Ten wins reflect this.
For a number of reasons, the Gophs have been unable to field solid, experienced teams.
 

Thanks, excellent analysis.

The one comment I will make is regarding recruiting rankings. You are correct, and your data points to it, the rankings don’t guarantee sucess of high ranked kids or failure by low ranked kids. They are just a broad brush. If, however, you look at statistics, the % (not count) of five star recruits that make it to the NFL is greater than that of the four stars. The four stars is greater than the three stars (again % not count), and so on. I will try to find the statistics to post, but if you think about recruiting rankings as a numbers game, it makes more sense.

That’s the thing with statistics, both here and life in general, that a lot of people really have a hard time grasping. They don’t work when you look case-by-case for any particular case. They work on aggregate. The expectation, given some statistics, only works when you average everything together.
 

Thanks "Who is...?" for these articles. Also, Rockford for your context.
So if a class of 25 has a 32% attrition (per usual Big Ten) we should end up with 17 seniors per class on average. Of those 17 a not unreasonable expectation is that three quarters of that group contribute either as solid position players or rotators, or standout starters. (Here I'm assuming that if a player is available through his 4th year, he is a contributor.) Rounding to whole bodies, that would mean that an average Big Ten team would have up to 13 contributing seniors on their roster. JG's analysis indicates we have been falling far short of the average Big Ten team - and the Big Ten wins reflect this.
For a number of reasons, the Gophs have been unable to field solid, experienced teams.

45% attrition would mean that 13-14 of the 25 players signed would be redshirt seniors by season 5. I’m guessing that likely doesn’t factor in a large number of true seniors.

But regardless, I’d be happy with 13 of each 25 signed making it to be a true senior or redshirt senior, every class. They might not all be significant contributors (Jerry Gibson for example), but even older bench guys can be great leaders/mentors for younger players, showing them the correct way in class, weight room, film study, treatment etc.
 

One would think in a program on the rise younger players may overtake older players, particularly another coach’s recruits so I’m not really sure of the usefulness of the data. If PJ starts recruiting at a high level one would hope those recruits would supplant his first three classes. Returning production and returning starters are generally looked at more often. I’m not sure senior numbers are all that important if some of them are sitting on the bench.

Here is some historical attrition data

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E4R1fd-RLiI6phk7DqkkmjcdfLFB5lO-OcvKUpdzAnI/mobilebasic
 

One would think in a program on the rise younger players may overtake older players, particularly another coach’s recruits so I’m not really sure of the usefulness of the data. If PJ starts recruiting at a high level one would hope those recruits would supplant his first three classes. Returning production and returning starters are generally looked at more often. I’m not sure senior numbers are all that important if some of them are sitting on the bench.

Here is some historical attrition data

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E4R1fd-RLiI6phk7DqkkmjcdfLFB5lO-OcvKUpdzAnI/mobilebasic

Nice! Thanks for the link. Your work?

JTG
 



Thanks John.
Well laid out and your 2015 class analysis was fair.


Just so everyone is aware, attrition across the Big Ten is about 45% for a class by the end of year 5, so these results aren't much different than that it appears, where in comparison, the 2015 class got hit harder.

Time Period Attrition Total Attrition
During Year 1 6.9% 6.9%
During Year 2 11.9% 18.8%
During Year 3 4.1% 22.9%
During Year 4 9.2% 32.1%
During Year 5 11.6% 43.7%

No one said it was unfair, it was just for an obvious purpose.

As to your actual point, attrition is an enormous issue and it actually works to inflate recruiting rankings (larger classes, more promises of PT, etc.).

It's also important to note that all attrition is not equal. Having RS JRs leave is good for a program. Having FR/SO leave is not good for a program.
 




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