A review of the 2015 Recruiting Class...

John Galt

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Everyone likes to discuss where the 2019 class will end up ranked, but I find it interesting to go back and evaluate past classes and how they performed. The 2015 class was Jerry's final class, and these are players that are this year's seniors and redshirt juniors. The class was ranked 63rd in the nation, and 13th in the B1G. Here is how it stacks up: https://247sports.com/college/minnesota/Season/2015-Football/Commits/

Of the 24 commits, 14 weren't on the roster this season: Dior Johnson (#1), Tyler Moore (#3), Charlie Rogers (#4), Demry Croft #5, Ray Buford, Hunter Register, Ted Stieber, Jaylen Waters, James Johannesson, Nick Connelly, Mose Hall, Zo Craighton, Kiante Hardin, Rashad Still.

Rogers was a JUCO so he never would have been in the program this long, and Connelly retired and passed away. 3 guys were forced to leave due to the scandal. We also have a new coach, so higher than normal attrition would be expected, but this still seems really high. Of the 10 remaining players:


Quinn Oseland: back-up, very little playing time
Shannon Brooks: Stud, home run recruit but has been plagued by injuries
Bronson Dovich: back-up, very little playing time
Winston D: occasional starter, solid contributor
Antonio Shenault: occasional starter, solid contributor
Jonathan Femi-Cole: very little playing time
Bryce Witham: minimal playing time
Jacob Huff: multi-year starter, strong contributor
Julian Huff: solid contributor and special teams player
Colton Beebe: solid contributor and special teams player

So for the entire class, we have two players that could be considered regular starters: Brooks and Jacob Huff. And Brooks has been injured more than he's been healthy. 3 guys that were occasional starters in Winston D, Shenault, and Beebe. 2 that didn't start but were valuable contributors in Huff and Witham.


Bottom line, who knows what this class could have looked like without the attrition, but the recruiting rankings seem to have gotten it right. There just weren't enough impact players in the class.
 


interesting......nice recap JG, thanks!
 

Thanks John. Definitely higher than normal attrition and also explains some of the struggles over the past two years.
 

Thanks John. Definitely higher than normal attrition and also explains some of the struggles over the past two years.

Agreed.

For the first half of the year I was blaming the attrition of this class to the reason our defense was horrible.
Turns out I was wrong and it was Robb Smith.

Having less attrition and more depth is always helpful of course.


That's the other thing to consider with recruiting classes, the rankings don't mean much if half the class isn't on the team in 2 years.
 


I wish you could edit thread titles.


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Losing players from recruiting classes for whatever reason is part of college football.

From research found from a few years ago, these were attrition rates across Big Ten teams.


Time Period Attrition Total Attrition
During Year 1 6.9% 6.9%
During Year 2 11.9% 18.8%
During Year 3 4.1% 22.9%
During Year 4 9.2% 32.1%
During Year 5 11.6% 43.7%

More info.
 

That's the other thing to consider with recruiting classes, the rankings don't mean much if half the class isn't on the team in 2 years.

Wait! What?


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Agreed.

For the first half of the year I was blaming the attrition of this class to the reason our defense was horrible.
Turns out I was wrong and it was Robb Smith.

Having less attrition and more depth is always helpful of course.


That's the other thing to consider with recruiting classes, the rankings don't mean much if half the class isn't on the team in 2 years.

Yes Robb Smith very bad. This Gopher team had some upper classmen with talent but the depth was thin. We found out with OJ and Silver in the middle, Williamson, Hardin, and Durr healthy on the back end, that the linebackers were actually pretty good.
 



Yes Robb Smith very bad. This Gopher team had some upper classmen with talent but the depth was thin. We found out with OJ and Silver in the middle, Williamson, Hardin, and Durr healthy on the back end, that the linebackers were actually pretty good.

It still blows my mind...
 


Wow, that is a pretty brutal class. Always interesting to see how the recruits actually pan out a few years after they are signed.
 






Everyone likes to discuss where the 2019 class will end up ranked, but I find it interesting to go back and evaluate past classes and how they performed. The 2015 class was Jerry's final class, and these are players that are this year's seniors and redshirt juniors. The class was ranked 63rd in the nation, and 13th in the B1G. Here is how it stacks up: https://247sports.com/college/minnesota/Season/2015-Football/Commits/

Of the 24 commits, 14 weren't on the roster this season: Dior Johnson (#1), Tyler Moore (#3), Charlie Rogers (#4), Demry Croft #5, Ray Buford, Hunter Register, Ted Stieber, Jaylen Waters, James Johannesson, Nick Connelly, Mose Hall, Zo Craighton, Kiante Hardin, Rashad Still.

Rogers was a JUCO so he never would have been in the program this long, and Connelly retired and passed away. 3 guys were forced to leave due to the scandal. We also have a new coach, so higher than normal attrition would be expected, but this still seems really high. Of the 10 remaining players:


Quinn Oseland: back-up, very little playing time
Shannon Brooks: Stud, home run recruit but has been plagued by injuries
Bronson Dovich: back-up, very little playing time
Winston D: occasional starter, solid contributor
Antonio Shenault: occasional starter, solid contributor
Jonathan Femi-Cole: very little playing time
Bryce Witham: minimal playing time
Jacob Huff: multi-year starter, strong contributor
Julian Huff: solid contributor and special teams player
Colton Beebe: solid contributor and special teams player

So for the entire class, we have two players that could be considered regular starters: Brooks and Jacob Huff. And Brooks has been injured more than he's been healthy. 3 guys that were occasional starters in Winston D, Shenault, and Beebe. 2 that didn't start but were valuable contributors in Huff and Witham.


Bottom line, who knows what this class could have looked like without the attrition, but the recruiting rankings seem to have gotten it right. There just weren't enough impact players in the class.

Ray Buford and Dior Johnson likely would likely have been solid contributors, if it were not for.... oh, you know....
 


Well if these guys were freshman in 2015 .... won't 2019 be their fifth year?? Is being a fifth year player not a thing any more?? Seems like a lot of guys just graduate in four years now. Maybe it has been that way. I thought the normal thing was to redshirt and play as a fifth year senior.
 

You could say Tyler Moore not being here was a result of the scandal too. He transferred to Oklahoma State after Claeys was fired, using that firing as the excuse for transferring.

He "should" have been our starting center this year, as a senior. He was a stud when he was here. That would've put Weyler at one of the Guards probably. Who knows.

Moore did hurt his back after transferring and I don't think he actually contributed much for them? He retired this season. Maybe that wouldn't have happened if he had stayed, or maybe it would still have. Impossible to say.
 

Well if these guys were freshman in 2015 .... won't 2019 be their fifth year?? Is being a fifth year player not a thing any more?? Seems like a lot of guys just graduate in four years now. Maybe it has been that way. I thought the normal thing was to redshirt and play as a fifth year senior.

The high school recruits from this class are/should have been this season's seniors and redshirt juniors.
 

The high school recruits from this class are/should have been this season's seniors and redshirt juniors.

That's what I thought. I was confused in reading reply #17 ... because all the players from class 2016 were already on the team this season, so why would we have more to look forward to next season when we're not losing a ton of 2015 players? I must be missing something!
 

That's what I thought. I was confused in reading reply #17 ... because all the players from class 2016 were already on the team this season, so why would we have more to look forward to next season when we're not losing a ton of 2015 players? I must be missing something!

I think what you are missing is the motive behind the OP.


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Nice unbiased review JG- hoped for more from the class certainly. Will be interesting doing the same next year for TCs only class and see how it compares.


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Nice unbiased review JG- hoped for more from the class certainly. Will be interesting doing the same next year for TCs only class and see how it compares.


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I'll be happy to do it next year for the 2016 class - it should be much better.
 

That's why it wasn't picked for the thread.

Sorry that you're offended over the poor 2015 class. As I mentioned in the OP, I picked it because those players are seniors and redshirt juniors this year, and we can pretty much write the book on how the class performed. The 2016 class is still fluid and the book isn't closed yet.
 

Thanks, Galty. This really exemplifies why anyone thinking this team or the current coaching staff underachieved is being excessively critical.
 

Thanks, Galty. This really exemplifies why <b>anyone thinking this team or the current coaching staff underachieved is being excessively critical.</b>

You may want to review the 2018 “predict our record” thread before drawing this line.


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Sorry that you're offended over the poor 2015 class. As I mentioned in the OP, I picked it because those players are seniors and redshirt juniors this year, and we can pretty much write the book on how the class performed. The 2016 class is still fluid and the book isn't closed yet.

I'm not offended at all. The class stunk. But we all know why you picked the 2015 class.
 




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