What’s your 2019 outlook at this moment?

Gopher Gildy

Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2015
Messages
117
Reaction score
10
Points
18
I’m very curious as to what GH thinks. At this moment in time, how are YOU feeling about the outlook of the 2019 season?

Here’s my $0.02, if anyone cares:

Context: Former GH writer, U of M alum, season-ticket holder who attends nearly all home games and at least one road game per year.

Overall: I am VERY optimistic about year 3 of the Fleck era. I foresee a mediocre B1G record and 7-9 regular season wins + legit bowl appearance.

QB: Passing offense went from 126.1 YPG in 2017 (remember Rhoda/Croft?!) to 215.2 YPG in 2018. Morgan + Annexstad are viable and largely pretty damn accurate for freshmen. Excited for year 2 + this Jacob Clark recruit.

RB: Imagine a stable of Shannon Brooks, Rodney Smith, and Ibrahim as RB1 - RB3. That means we could have our leading rushers from 2015, 2016, 2017, AND 2018 back for next season. The stars have aligned. The sky is the limit for this crew.

WR: Assuming Tyler Johnson doesn’t go pro, we will return the second-best receiver in the B1G, statistically speaking. In addition, we will have Bateman + CAB + Douglas back as sophomores, I believe.

SETH GREEN: He deserves his own category; he’s that important to this team. A short-yardage stud! He always falls forward, thus ensuring an extra yard or two. He would only be a junior, correct? Props to coaching staff for making him a touchdown machine.

DEFENSE: The loss of Cashman cannot be understated - we unfortunately will lose the soul and leading tackler of our 2018 defense. I have faith that Barber and Martin will fill in nicely at LB. Assuming he doesn’t go pro, we will return Coughlin on the line. He had 9.5 sacks this year, T-1st in the B1G. Most importantly, we will likely return Antoine Winfield Jr. I think his play speaks for itself - remember his punt return earlier this year? How about his game-winning pick versus Fresno? Absolute game-changer. Add him + Coney Durr + Terrell Smith + Chris Williamson, and you should see that the cupboard is not bare in the secondary.

SCHEDULE: We avoid Michigan and Ohio State. We get Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Penn State at home. We also play Rutgers. In addition, I see two likely wins in Georgia Southern and South Dakota State. Tough road games at Iowa and Fresno State.

If Gopher football were a stock, and I were a financial guru, I’d be screaming on Wall Street: Buy! Buy!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

I agree with you. However, I think if it's 7 wins and a mediocre Big Ten record that we are calling optimism, that's not really a BUY rating on this stock.

The offense should be very good next season assuming it doesn't get bombed by injuries or unforeseen losses off the field. Probably the best we've had at the U since the heyday of Barber and Maroney. Probably more versatile than those offenses. Almost everyone is back from a group that can move the ball, plus a couple "new" adds like Smith and Brooks and any freshmen who can play.

Defense is a little iffier. I'm more excited about it with Rossi calling the shots, but it's still going to likely have some of the same issues as all Gopher defenses getting pushed around up front and struggling to contain mobile QBs. A full healthy season from AWJr would mean a lot for the D prospects. We'll miss Cashman less if the DL occupies blockers like it did the last 3 games, allowing linebackers to make plays.

The sked is easy enough that the Gophers could theoretically win them all. They also could lose a lot of swing games. I'm hopeful that a better turnover margin and a defensive scheme allowing less disaster plays will put more of the swing games in the Win column.

BTW, nobody sane is going pro early on this team. I bet Faalele would go awful high if he could, though. He's got a shot at being a top 10 overall pick I think when eligible.

I'm really hoping for at least 9 wins next year, inclusive of the bowl game. With a 10+ upside. That would be some real progress before the schedule likely stiffens the next couple years.
 

I haven't formed one pending the bowl game. I'm really curious about how the defense looks after 14 bowl practices.
 


I'd like to say 8 wins and would be disappointed with less than 7.

^ This. I'd REALLY like to see 9.... Happy with 8.... Meh with 7. Disappointed with 6.
We will know more after the road trip to Fresno.
 


Although there are so many reasons to be optimistic about the 2019 season, we have all been Gopher fans for too many years to put the cart before the horse. I have been optimistic too many times only to be let down time and time again. There is no reason to think that beating a five loss Wisconsin team is reason to declare that Minnesota will be able to parley that win into 8+ wins next year. I must wait to see it before I believe it.
 

I'll be very pleased with 8-4 (and I think that's doable). I'll be slightly disappointed with 7-5. I would be absolutely ecstatic with 9-3.
 

There is no reason to think that beating a five loss Wisconsin team is reason to declare that Minnesota will be able to parley that win into 8+ wins next year. I must wait to see it before I believe it.

8 wins is a reasonable expectation based on recent past history and because we have a somewhat easier schedule next year (although we do have to play at Fresno). From 2013-2016 the Gophers won 8 regular season games in 3 out of those 4 years and the first of those (2013) came after a 6-6 season. I don't think that 6-6 team was as good as this one (at least on offense).
 

8 is my expectation. Oline should be better despite loss of Weyler/Greene. QB / receiver upgrade due to experience. RB upgrade due to Smith/ Brooks return. TEis a wash; lose Beebe blocking,gain SpannFord receiving. D is more iffy; line will be key. Backers slight downgrade with loss of Cashman. Secondary upgrade with return of Winfield and gains in experience. Losing kicker experience will hurt.
Like swapping Penn State for Ohio State.
 



My outlook is rosy (although not Rose Bowly).

I don't think anyone mentioned that offense will have three returning all-conference linemen. ;)

I'll worry about predicting the number of wins at a later date, but it will definitely be a winning season.

JTG
 

My outlook is I want to see more consistency from the offense and defense. If we are more consistent and limit mistakes we are going to win a lot of games. It’s time to turn the corner and be consistent in all phases of the game.
 

With the weak schedule and even moderate improvement, I'm looking at at least 8 wins, probably 9.
 

RB upgrade due to Smith/ Brooks return.

I'm not convinced Smith will beat out Ibrahim and I'm not convinced that Brooks will be healthy enough to play a whole season. We'll have more depth, though.
 



Thoughts - more consistency. Avoid the "bad" losses. don't expect the team to go undefeated, but keep the losses competitive. At least have a shot to win in the 2nd half. fewer defensive breakdowns and long TD's. make teams earn their points.

On offense, show a little more variety. mix in sweeps and off-tackle runs with the RUTM plays. get everyone involved in passing game - RB's, TE's, all the WR's. Likewise, get all the backs involved in running the ball.

And a wild-card thought: I would love to see Coughlin at LB. That, of course, requires two DE's who can play at a B1G level. But, if two (other) quality DE's emerge, I could see Coughlin as a real difference maker at LB - a guy with the speed to rush the passer, pick up a receiver out of the backfield, and the toughness to come up and hit a RB in the hole. Make him the centerpiece of the defense.
 

Thoughts - more consistency. Avoid the "bad" losses. don't expect the team to go undefeated, but keep the losses competitive. At least have a shot to win in the 2nd half. fewer defensive breakdowns and long TD's. make teams earn their points.

On offense, show a little more variety. mix in sweeps and off-tackle runs with the RUTM plays. get everyone involved in passing game - RB's, TE's, all the WR's. Likewise, get all the backs involved in running the ball.

And a wild-card thought: I would love to see Coughlin at LB. That, of course, requires two DE's who can play at a B1G level. But, if two (other) quality DE's emerge, I could see Coughlin as a real difference maker at LB - a guy with the speed to rush the passer, pick up a receiver out of the backfield, and the toughness to come up and hit a RB in the hole. Make him the centerpiece of the defense.

I think Mafe will be a star
 

Rows Bowl!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Coughlin seems like the best candidate to replace Cashman...instincts, speed, smarts, desire, leadership etc. It seems we have recruited a bunch of D Line guys....somebody should emerge. Maybe Devers flashes again, maybe Winston goes beast, maybe Mafe is the guy or unsung Renner. At LB Rush flashed early in the season...maybe he's the guy? We'll have like 20 DB's on the roster next fall. Rossi seems like he can figure it out.

The schedule is definitely easier.

The offense should be able to put fear in opponents for the first time since...Mason? We have QB candidates and Kirk and PJ seem to coach em up pretty effectively. It appears we'll have most RB's since Barber, Maroney and Tapeh....slow down...ha....but they could be if they all show up healthy and hungry. WR's...check... OLine, I think we have the right coach in Callahan.

It sure would seem we are in position to win 8 or more games. PJ, the coordinators, Callahan, and Mr Farmington must all be pretty good coaches...that's 5 of them I'm seeing results from. DLine was impressive versus Wisconsin too.
Wow! Beating Wisconsin is like crack...
 
Last edited:

I'm not convinced Smith will beat out Ibrahim and I'm not convinced that Brooks will be healthy enough to play a whole season. We'll have more depth, though.

It will be interesting how carries get split next season. The offense seemed to give 1 back the majority of the carries. In their healthy games Smith and Brooks had 24 and 22 carries respectively. Ibrahim and Williams had games of 25-30+ carries as the feature back. With the talent and injury histories you would think they might be a bit more running back by committee in the future.

Looking at some of the better wins (Fresno, Indiana, Purdue, wisconsin), Gophers ran the ball 40-45 times. Assuming the establish the run philosophy stays, there should be plenty of touches for all, especially if they use multiple backs or get a guy like Rodney some catches.
 
Last edited:

A lot of positives I think looking into next season. One aspect of Fleck's tenure here which hasn't received a ton of attention but probably should (because it's pretty dang awesome) is the discipline which he and his coaches have this team playing with. Last season, we committed the fewest penalties (3.2) per game of all 130 FBS teams, while this season, we committed the 4th fewest penalties per game. Obviously, that doesn't translate automatically to wins, but it sure doesn't hurt when you have a team which isn't continually beating itself via means of the yellow flag. These players and their coaches deserve full credit for that.

I see quite a bit of bellyaching on here about Fleck sometimes and that's fine, as people are welcome to their own opinions. But I can tell you without one singular shadow of a doubt that a team cannot, will not, and does not play with that level of discipline absent being fully and completely bought in. Say what you will about PJ, but it is obvious his players have fully bought in to what he and his coaches are presenting them with, and that again = great optimism regarding the future.
 


The lines, kicking, and how we replace Cashman will be the biggest question marks. Other than that everything should get better. QB and all of the receivers will be more experienced and should be better, so long as the line can give the QB enough time. The run game should take a huge step up with Smith and Brooks getting healthy. Have to wonder if we'll see some creativity with how they are used because we'll have 2 great running backs and a very good running back. Defensive backs should get better with more experience and with Winfield back.

I'd be slightly disappointed with 6 wins, content with 7 wins, very happy with 8 wins, and anything more than 8 would be amazing. If the offensive line gets things figured out and the defense stays healthy, the team could be good enough to be in contention for the Big 10 West title.
 


One aspect of Fleck's tenure here which hasn't received a ton of attention but probably should (because it's pretty dang awesome) is the discipline which he and his coaches have this team playing with. Last season, we committed the fewest penalties (3.2) per game of all 130 FBS teams, while this season, we committed the 4th fewest penalties per game. Obviously, that doesn't translate automatically to wins, but it sure doesn't hurt when you have a team which isn't continually beating itself via means of the yellow flag. These players and their coaches deserve full credit for that.

I see quite a bit of bellyaching on here about Fleck sometimes and that's fine, as people are welcome to their own opinions. But I can tell you without one singular shadow of a doubt that a team cannot, will not, and does not play with that level of discipline absent being fully and completely bought in. Say what you will about PJ, but it is obvious his players have fully bought in to what he and his coaches are presenting them with, and that again = great optimism regarding the future.

Great point.

JTG
 

Very hard to predict at this point in time. The mantra going in to next season should be "stay healthy". If we can keep Smith, Brooks, and Winfield healthy for the entire season that will give us an opportunity for something special, IMHO. 2 non-conf. wins with a really tough road test at Fresno State. If we pull of that road win then, you never know. Wins at home against Illinois and Maryland are a MUST, Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin are winnable but tougher, and a road win at Rutgers is imperative. Here is my worst-case scenario:
SD State - W
@ Fresno State - L
Georgia Southern - W
@ Purdue - L
Illinois - W
Nebraska - L
@ Rutgers - W
Maryland - W
Penn State - L
@ Iowa - L
@ NW - L
Wisconsin - W

6 wins bare minimum - worst case
IF we beat Fresno State, things could definitely turn: We beat Purdue, Nebraska and Penn State and who knows @ Iowa and NW. Should be interesting to say the least.
 

Looks like seven wins, minimum.

Thing is, it's easy to forget how closely matched many games are. Even when the score ends up one-sided, it may have been one or two plays which really made the difference. So an activity like this can quickly become an exercise in futility.

With that said, seems like SD, Georgia Southern, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland are five must-have wins. I'd be happy with closely contested battles against Fresno St., Purdue, Nebraska, Penn St., Iowa, NW and Wisconsin -- with the thought we win at least two of them. Three of those seven games are at home.

JTG
 

Remember that 7 wins (pending this year's bowl) would be standing still with an indisputably deeper and more experienced roster and what seems to be an easier schedule.

More should be expected.
 

Hate pinning a number on it but if things break right we could be in line for a very nice season and if the trend from the last 3 games holds true. we could be in the mix for the Big Ten West title.

There will be holes to fill like always but it feels like there are fewer of them to deal with then in many previous seasons.

Offense has a chance to be one of the better units in the conference if things continue progressing the way they did during the season. When we held onto the ball and avoided turnovers the offense played really well. And if Smith and/or Brooks can come back healthy we will have a lot of weapons at the skill positions at both RB and WR. Have to fill a couple spots on the O-Line but think we have the pieces on the roster to get that done.

Defense has to replace Cashman which won't be easy but isn't impossible. Hopefully Winfield can avoid the season ending injury he suffers annually and play all year. Lot of new faces on the DL, hopefully a JC guy pans out and the young guys develop. As others have mentioned would love to see Coughlin be in a position to shift back to LB where he could be a beast.

Lots of reason to be optimistic heading into next season. Some have said not to make too much out of the one game against Wisconsin which is fair, however for me it is more about how we played over those last 3 games. If that is the real version of the team then we are very close to being a contender in the West and might already be there.
 
Last edited:

This year we ended the Madison losing streak at 24 years, next year we win in Iowa city for the first time since 1999. Exorcise the demons. That's my outlook.
 

Lots of reason to be optimistic heading into next season. Some have said not to make too much out of the one game against Wisconsin which is fair, however for me it is more about how we played over those last 3 games. If that is the real version of the team then we are very close to being a contender in the West and might already be there.

I think the trend is the key, and we are definitely trending upward.

Even more than wins, I want the Gophers to be entertaining. That's why the Maryland and Illinois games were tremendously disappointing this year. Because of our defensive deficiencies, we were never in those games.

I have no difficulty envisioning a highly entertaining 7-5 season next year. I think it's more conceivable that we improve on that than we have any games where we just don't compete.

JTG
 

Fresno loses a lot on offense, but on the other side they return a lot to a good defense including Jeff Allison, the mountain west defensive player of the year who was all over the place when we played them.
 




Top Bottom