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  1. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ignatius L Hoops View Post
    https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi...2012-16-18.pdf

    NCAA RPI through games of 12-16-18 with strength of schedule and record.


    16 Indiana 172 (9-0)
    17 Iowa 39 (8-2)
    27 Michigan State 162 (9-1)
    32 Minnesota 276 (19-0)
    41 Maryland 276 (10-0)
    60 Northwestern 85 (5-3)
    61 Rutgers 87 (7-3)
    65 Michigan 179 (8-3)
    76 Ohio State 54 (4-3)
    91 Purdue 79 (7-4)
    96 Penn State 74 (7-4)
    109 Nebraska 77 (5-5)
    130 Illinois 246 (8-2)
    141 Wisconsin 258 (8-3)
    19-0? I like the sound of THAT!


  2. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by thatjanelpick View Post
    19-0? I like the sound of THAT!
    Thanks for the catch. It was more distracted typing than daydream predicting.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ignatius L Hoops View Post
    Thanks for the catch. It was more distracted typing than daydream predicting.
    I'll simply split the difference and state that if they go 19-0 to start the season, their RPI will be a heckuva lot better than 32...

  4. #19

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    The biggest roadblocks to 19-0 are the games at Michigan, at Michigan St, and the home game with Iowa.

    The Gophers will definitely have the target on their backs. Don’t think it’ll be easy to get keep winning just because it’s looked easy so far.

  5. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shades View Post
    The biggest roadblocks to 19-0 are the games at Michigan, at Michigan St, and the home game with Iowa.

    The Gophers will definitely have the target on their backs. Donít think itíll be easy to get keep winning just because itís looked easy so far.
    I think Maryland would be a potential roadblock as well....


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  6. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by blkroll View Post
    I think Maryland would be a potential roadblock as well....
    Don’t play them til the end of February. If it gets to that point, Maryland could be a roadblock to 27-0, not 19-0.

    According to the Gamer algorithm, the Gophers will lose all their Big Ten road games except for the ones in Wisconsin and Northwestern. Even though it has been a small sample size, I think the Gophers have responded well in their road games so far.

  7. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by blkroll View Post
    I think Maryland would be a potential roadblock as well....

    Last year we upset Maryland, but doing so this year would be a lot more challenging since the game is at Maryland.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shades View Post
    Don’t play them til the end of February. If it gets to that point, Maryland could be a roadblock to 27-0, not 19-0.

    According to the Gamer algorithm, the Gophers will lose all their Big Ten road games except for the ones in Wisconsin and Northwestern. Even though it has been a small sample size, I think the Gophers have responded well in their road games so far.
    The RealTimeRPI Gamer algorithm might be fairly well architected generally, but I believe it's a bit wack in terms of putting about twice as much emphasis as is deserved on the impact of being a home game on the win/loss result. I suspect they might just follow the home/away emphasis that the RPI metric itself places on home vs away, which I also deem to be an over-emphasis. Actually, let me revise that statement. I believe the RPI/Gamer emphasis on home advantage might be spot on for teams like Minnesota where there is a lot of fan loyalty and support and game attendance, such that playing at home is a non-trivial factor. But for the average NCAA WBB team, the impact of playing at home is less significant than the RPI/Gamer math makes it out to be. So that asymmetry is actually advantageous to the Gophers (and Gopher WBB thanks you for that, fellow Gopher fans).

    Employing that asymetry as a core assumption, Let's make a (very ball-park-ish but a starting point) guestimate of what the pre-tournament record "could be" (barring losing games that we should win, or further injury). We'll do what I'll call an optimistic/pessimisstic estimate - namely optimistic about games we think we ought to win, and pessimistic about games that we're somewhat worried about. The specific assumptions for this guestimate will be:

    (1) Assume we do due diligence this weekend and complete our win-out of the non-B1G pre-season by defeating Rhode Island.

    (2) Optimistically assume (as Gamer does as well) that we'll win all games against bottom-dwelling and middle-dwelling B1G teams (the ones we think we should be able to beat handily, unless we choke or don't close out).

    (3) Pessimistically assume that we will lose most of the games against teams that we're worried about. In that set I'll include {Maryland (away), Iowa (home), Michigan (away), Michigan State (home and away)}. By "most" and "pessimistically" I mean to assume that we'll split the home-and-away series with Michigan State, but lose the other 3 challenging games.

    These optimistic/pessimistic assumptions imply a 25-4 record in the full regular season. Of course, there's always the possibility that we might upset one of the teams that we're worried about. And on the flip side we might mess up and lose some game(s) that we're optimistically hoping to win. Or perhaps both.

    Bottom line, a 25-4 season is a good target that the Lady Gophers should aim to beat, via great playing and great coaching. It would certainly get us into the NCAA playoffs, unless the NCAA committee is insane (something that I wouldn't count out, given our insanely poor strength of schedule at end of season, as estimated by RealTimeRPI).

    By the way, if we get even close to the above target record, the only way that the NCAA committee would cross us off the Big Dance list would be if there were too many other B1G teams with higher RPIs, and they had a target number of B1G teams in mind for inclusion, and they gave way too much emphasis on RPI versus win/loss record within the B1G league. If that should happen, it would be a rotten shame, since RPI is a corrupt measure of teams' basketball capability and achievements during a given season.

    Look at the RPIs as of Monday (yesterday, 12/17) as just noted in this thread, focusing initially just on B1G teams. Within the B1G, Indiana comes in at the top spot with a #16 ranked RPI and an SoS of 172. It's undefeated at that point just like Minnesota, and it does have an SoS that's 104 ranks better than Minnesota - yet it didn't get a single vote in the AP top-25 poll. It's highly improbable that Indiana will finish better than Minnesota, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State and Michigan in the B1G. This is exemplary of how meaningless the RPI metric is, especially during the pre-season.

    On the other hand, Iowa is one rank lower than Indiana at #17 with SoS = 39 and record of 8-2. And Iowa is decently ranked in the API poll, and we think legitimately so. Iowa ends up with a decent RPI via having a poorer record, but against a much stronger set of opponents. In other words there's two basic ways a team can get a good-looking RPI: (a) either have a perfect or nearly perfect won/loss record (even against fairly weak teams); or (b) have a decent (but not perfect) won/loss record against a tough set of opponent teams; or (c) some combination of the two.

    Method (c) is currently exemplified by Northwestern, who has an OK but not-so-good record of 5-3, but against a set of opponents who collectively give it a current SoS of 85, which is good but not as impressive as Iowa's opponents. Both Minnesota and Maryland are good examples of (a) with both teams undefeated at 10-0 but with horrible SoS of 276, giving them RPI ranks of #32 and #41 respectively at the moment. And of course, being early in the season, the relatively meaningless RPIs are even more meaningless since they don't reflect either the game results or impact on SoS of playing their league opponents.

    Interestingly, if you look at the entire RPI list as of Monday, Minnesota and Wisconsin Green Bay are neck-and-neck in RPI rating and ranking. But Minnesota gets there entirely by method (a) whereas Green Bay gets there entirely by method (b). The Gophers are undefeated against mostly weak opponents; whereas Green Bay has a nearly 50/50 win/loss record against very strong opponents. So who's to say which team is better, Minnesota or Green Bay. Last year that was determined in round one of the playoffs.

    Bottom line is that a highly ranked RPI means: either you're a good team, or else maybe you just played a bunch of good teams, or maybe a bit of each. But contains no information about which of the three holds true.

    So as we see the Gopher RPI rise in spite of continued winning, we should not worry too much about that; but just hope that the NCAA committee doesn't put too much stock in RPI either (as they shouldn't since it's a largely meaningless joke of a metric). Fortunately they have a resume sheet for each team being evaluated for the playoff, so in principle that resume should count more than RPI.
    Last edited by CutDownTheNet; 12-18-2018 at 06:18 PM.

  8. #23

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    With no change in win/loss projections, Gopher projected RPI is now 38, helped presumably by a combo of the league and MN opponents, overperforming. Thatíll get the team in the tourney.

  9. #24

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    Ok, just got done reading over on the men's side of how the RPI will have nothing to do with getting into the tourney for the men's team, and I remember reading last year that the NCAA was making that move, so did that not apply to the women's side?

  10. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by KillmeNow View Post
    Ok, just got done reading over on the men's side of how the RPI will have nothing to do with getting into the tourney for the men's team, and I remember reading last year that the NCAA was making that move, so did that not apply to the women's side?
    The NCAA switched the men's game to NET as a sorting tool. The women's game stayed with RPI.

  11. #26

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    Meanwhile, the Realtime algorithm has changed its mind: MN beats MI, with attendant boost In RPI

  12. #27

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    https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi...2012-22-18.pdf

    With no games until after the Christmas break, it's Monday's RPI on Sunday. Through games of 12-22-18 and the end of the non-conference season with RPI, Strength of Schedule and Record:

    11 Iowa 32 (9-2)
    15 Indiana 119 (11-1)
    28 Minnesota 248 (11-0)
    33 Michigan State 188 (10-1)
    43 Maryland 273 (11-0)
    63 Rutgers 86 (7-3)
    72 Purdue 65 (9-4)
    95 Michigan 256 (9-3)
    101 Northwestern 137 (7-4)
    105 Penn State 71 (7-4)
    106 Ohio State 23 (4-5)
    111 Nebraska 51 (5-6)
    163 Illinois 235 (8-3)
    179 Wisconsin 311 (9-3)

  13. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by thatjanelpick View Post
    Meanwhile, the Realtime algorithm has changed its mind: MN beats MI, with attendant boost In RPI
    In fact, RealTimeRPI Gamer has bopped the Gopher projected end of season RPI ranking all the way up to 21. For reference, it has Maryland at an RPI ranking of 18 at end of season.

    Also, RealTime has just barely changed it's mind - it has us beating @Michigan by one point. It hasn't changed it's mind on our other B1G away losses. But it has us losing @Rutgers and @Northwestern by one point. And losing @Purdue by two points. I suspect the latter three games are quite winnable. Of course, the Michigan game is also quite lose able. In any event, as thatjanelpick points out, if we can match or better Gamer's predictions, we're in the tourney.

    The new NET system is experimental for NCAA Men only, as a replacement for RPI at tournament time. It's widely assumed that the Women hoops program would get it next year if it works out well.

    Early thoughts on NET were on the order of "well, RPI is so horrible, and so not a measure of a team's basketball achievements in a season, that NET is bound to be an improvement over RPI." Indeed, I've harped on the stupidity of RPI in several posts.

    But surprise, early reports suggest (and convince me) that NET is a step backwards, and RPI is better than NET. In fact, it's such a mess that they will probably have to either revise it or abandon it.

    It's complicated why, but if I get some spare time I'll try to write up why NET is a bust on the MBB forum. If I do, I'll mention the post here for cross reference.
    Last edited by CutDownTheNet; 12-23-2018 at 02:07 PM.

  14. #29

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    Update:

    RealTimeRPI updates dynamically, and in a matter of hours (as of 6:40 PM Sunday Dec 23) I noticed a couple things. First, besides @Michigan, it had also flipped @Nebraska to a win. It now predicts the Gophers as a 5-loss season. It still predicts Maryland as a 4-loss season.

    Second, sometime this afternoon it flipped the end of season RPI ranking order of Maryland and Minnesota. It now predicts the Gophers end of season RPI ranking at #16 and Maryland at #20, thus flipping their order.

    Don't attach any significance to this, however. It only means that the Gophers 11th opponent Rhode Island, is a stronger team than whomever Maryland played in their 11th game. Thus making Maryland's predicted final SoS ever so slightly worse than Minnesota's. Since RPI is mostly a measure of how strong your opponents are (and only slightly a measure of how strong your team is), that minor change causes Gamer to predict the Gophers will have a better RPI than Maryland at end of season, assuming all it's game predictions come true. At the same time it still predicts that Maryland will win one more game than Minnesota.

    That's not inconsistent on Gamer's part. It's just a symptom of the fact that RPI is not a good metric for how good a given basketball team is.

  15. #30

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    Realtime has Indiana at 12-0 when they’re actually 11-1. I wonder how many other errors they have.

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