Gophers Non-Conference Opponents So Far

Washington is hanging around with the Zags. Were ahead in the 2nd half.

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Washington going punch for punch with Gonzaga.

Lost on a shot with 1 second left. Would have helped the Gophers
 
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Washington going punch for punch with Gonzaga.

Lost on a shot with 1 second left. Would have helped the Gophers

Gave Gonzaga all they could handle! Hopefully Washington goes on a roll in the Pac-12...
 

If UW struggles in the Pac 12, our OOC schedule is going to net us a whopping ZERO Q1/Q2 wins. Oklahoma State has no shot to end up in the top 100 of NET, not sure UW does either. But they obviously have a better shot.
 

If UW struggles in the Pac 12, our OOC schedule is going to net us a whopping ZERO Q1/Q2 wins. Oklahoma State has no shot to end up in the top 100 of NET, not sure UW does either. But they obviously have a better shot.

People worry too much about the quality of wins. If we win enough games, we'll get in. If we have to worry about getting in based on our OOC schedule, then we probably don't deserve to be in. The conference is loaded. Plenty of opportunity for good wins.
 


People worry too much about the quality of wins. If we win enough games, we'll get in. If we have to worry about getting in based on our OOC schedule, then we probably don't deserve to be in. The conference is loaded. Plenty of opportunity for good wins.

Historically the committee has cared about your OOC SOS and quality wins. It's why a team like Nebraska got left out last year. They were bad in both regards.
 

Historically the committee has cared about your OOC SOS and quality wins. It's why a team like Nebraska got left out last year. They were bad in both regards.

Exactly. Go 500 in BIG play in you’re in. Even if 5 of those wins are PSU, ILL, RUT, we still will have 5 wins over tournament caliber teams. Quite frankly, a road win at Rutgers might be a resume builder when it’s all said and done.

Edit: Meant to quote upandunder
 

Exactly. Go 500 in BIG play in you’re in. Even if 5 of those wins are PSU, ILL, RUT, we still will have 5 wins over tournament caliber teams. Quite frankly, a road win at Rutgers might be a resume builder when it’s all said and done.

Edit: Meant to quote upandunder

There's been multiple occasions where going .500 in B1G play hasn't been enough. I don't think going 10-10 is a lock to get in this year.
 

There's been multiple occasions where going .500 in B1G play hasn't been enough. I don't think going 10-10 is a lock to get in this year.

I don’t remember a year that the conference has been stronger from top to bottom.
 



There's been multiple occasions where going .500 in B1G play hasn't been enough. I don't think going 10-10 is a lock to get in this year.

This.

Everybody is assuming with the strength of the league and the 2 extra games that .500 pretty much will make a team a lock. That's simplifying it too much, not the way it works. All schedules (non-conference & conference) aren't created equal. It's still who you beat & where you beat 'em, among some other things. Let's at least wait for one year of data before making the assertion that .500 in the B1G is a "lock" for the tournament.
 
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This.

Everybody is assuming with the strength of the league and the 2 extra games that .500 pretty much will make a team a lock. That's simplifying it too much, not the way it works. All schedules (non-conference & conference) aren't created equal. Let's at least wait for one year of data before making those assertions.

To be fair, I never said 10-10 conference would get the Gophers in. I think 12-8 will though. Our OOC isn't great but its a lot of away/neutral site games vs P5 teams. And if the Gophers want to make the tournament, win more games. Simple as that.
 

I don’t remember a year that the conference has been stronger from top to bottom.

That is the one positive from a SOS perspective. The B1G is really strong this year.
 

This.

Everybody is assuming with the strength of the league and the 2 extra games that .500 pretty much will make a team a lock. That's simplifying it too much, not the way it works. All schedules (non-conference & conference) aren't created equal. It's still who you beat & where you beat 'em, among some other things. Let's at least wait for one year of data before making the assertion that .500 in the B1G is a "lock" for the tournament.

Yeah if we go 10-10 in league, assuming we don't win the B1G tournament we enter selection Sunday with 12 losses. At that point it's going to be about who we beat, and where we beat them. It's why losing a winnable game at BC was frustrating because that's going to be at worst a Q2 game. We need to steal a couple road games, I'd imagine too to achieve .500 in league play.
 



To be fair, I never said 10-10 conference would get the Gophers in. I think 12-8 will though. Our OOC isn't great but its a lot of away/neutral site games vs P5 teams. And if the Gophers want to make the tournament, win more games. Simple as that.

P5 in status only. A&M, Utah and Oklahoma State won't register as anything more than 3 Q3 wins, unless they play much better than they have at this point. Heck Utah might end being a Q4 win.
 

I know it's very early, but Lunardi currently has 10 Big Ten teams in his Bracketology. Do I think 10 teams will make it? No. But it absolutely speaks volumes on how well the Big Ten has played in the non-conference this year. If Iowa beats Iowa State tonight and Nebraska beats Creighton on Saturday (both home games), it will even more solidify how strong the Big Ten is. ESPN showed an interesting stat the other day. I can't find it anywhere on the internet, but it showed the average NET ranking of all the conferences. The Big Ten was 20 points higher than the 2nd place conference. I won't get into how I think people are making too much of a fuss about the NET rankings, as the committee will use other criteria as well when deciding on Selection Sunday, but it's another indication of how deep the Big Ten is. Even Rutgers is competitive. There's going to be a ton of resume building opportunities, which is a 180 from last year...
 

I know it's very early, but Lunardi currently has 10 Big Ten teams in his Bracketology. Do I think 10 teams will make it? No. But it absolutely speaks volumes on how well the Big Ten has played in the non-conference this year. If Iowa beats Iowa State tonight and Nebraska beats Creighton on Saturday (both home games), it will even more solidify how strong the Big Ten is. ESPN showed an interesting stat the other day. I can't find it anywhere on the internet, but it showed the average NET ranking of all the conferences. The Big Ten was 20 points higher than the 2nd place conference. I won't get into how I think people are making too much of a fuss about the NET rankings, as the committee will use other criteria as well when deciding on Selection Sunday, but it's another indication of how deep the Big Ten is. Even Rutgers is competitive. There's going to be a ton of resume building opportunities, which is a 180 from last year...

Agree on that. No doubt the conference is significantly better than last year.

I just think some of the talk of 9-11/10-10 conference records and 8 or 9 B1G teams being in the dance needs to cool down a little bit.

The B1G will definitely get more teams in the NCAA tourney than last year. That much is basically a guarantee at this point. But to get 9 teams in the NCAA tournament (as I've seen mentioned a few times -- not by you specifically gopherguy15) would be pretty historic. While the B1G has been very strong in non-conference, it's not on historic levels by any stretch. I mean, the B1G/ACC challenge was a tie, so there is at least one other conference that appears to be similar in terms of strength. SEC and Big 12 have plenty of quality teams as well. Big East is not as strong with Villanova and Xavier down compared to recent years. Pac 12 is kind of a mess, but that's no different than the past few years.
 

P5 in status only. A&M, Utah and Oklahoma State won't register as anything more than 3 Q3 wins, unless they play much better than they have at this point. Heck Utah might end being a Q4 win.

But none of this matters if they win enough games. They could play all OOC games against Q4 teams but if they went 18-2 in the conference, they'd be in. My point is, and has been, and will remain, if they win enough games in the conference the OOC doesn't matter. It doesn't have to be 18, but if they go 12-8 or better in the B1G, they'll be in. Simple. As. That.
 

But none of this matters if they win enough games. They could play all OOC games against Q4 teams but if they went 18-2 in the conference, they'd be in. My point is, and has been, and will remain, if they win enough games in the conference the OOC doesn't matter. It doesn't have to be 18, but if they go 12-8 or better in the B1G, they'll be in. Simple. As. That.

Well obviously, but it isn't realistic to expect them to go 18-2. Looking at the schedule I'd say 12-8 seems like best case for this team. With something like 6-14 as worst case. If they manage to fall somewhere in the middle with 9/10 wins it would be about as expected.

And even then, you don't want to play a soft schedule because it affects seeding(if we ever got to the point of us being safely in)
 

but if they go 12-8 or better in the B1G, they'll be in. Simple. As. That.

They go 10-10 in conference and they are a LOCK as long as they don't lose to any of these cupcakes the next few games here.
 

They go 10-10 in conference and they are a LOCK as long as they don't lose to any of these cupcakes the next few games here.

Not a lock. Our non-conference isn't strong enough for that to make us a lock. Probably a bubble team. Still would need to avoid a bad loss/early exit in the conference tourney
 

Not a lock. Our non-conference isn't strong enough for that to make us a lock. Probably a bubble team. Still would need to avoid a bad loss/early exit in the conference tourney

21-12, 10-10 in conference? LOCK all the way IMO if a few of those wins are against the top 6 teams in the conference.
 

21-12, 10-10 in conference? LOCK all the way IMO if a few of those wins are against the top 6 teams in the conference.

I don't think anyone has really gotten used to the new bubble after the expansion to 68 teams. it is always much weaker than we think it will be at the start of the season.
 

21-12, 10-10 in conference? LOCK all the way IMO if a few of those wins are against the top 6 teams in the conference.

21-12 assumes a win in the conference tournament.

If the scenario is 10-10 plus a win in the conference tournament and a few wins over top 6 teams in the conference then yes, we would definitely be in. But that's different than saying just 10-10 in conference is a lock which is what we were initially talking about.
 

21-12 assumes a win in the conference tournament.

If the scenario is 10-10 plus a win in the conference tournament and a few wins over top 6 teams in the conference then yes, we would definitely be in. But that's different than saying just 10-10 in conference is a lock which is what we were initially talking about.

The B1G is virtually a lock for 8 or 9 teams in the field. It would be pretty hard to get to 10-10 without winning 4-5 games against those teams. So I think 10-10 is a lock, assuming we don't slip on one of the cupcakes.
 

But none of this matters if they win enough games. They could play all OOC games against Q4 teams but if they went 18-2 in the conference, they'd be in. My point is, and has been, and will remain, if they win enough games in the conference the OOC doesn't matter. It doesn't have to be 18, but if they go 12-8 or better in the B1G, they'll be in. Simple. As. That.

Last year, Nebraska went 13-5 in the B1G, finished fourth in the conference, and were left out of the big dance.
 


Last year, Nebraska went 13-5 in the B1G, finished fourth in the conference, and were left out of the big dance.

That argument doesn't apply this year. The Big Ten was historically down last season. Not the case this year.
 

That argument doesn't apply this year. The Big Ten was historically down last season. Not the case this year.

Very true but you need quality wins and with all the equality the attrition there will be 8 invites not eleven some are selling. Finishing 8th is not acceptable in year 6 and i see and expect top 3. Win at UW, win somewhere big like Michigan. Programs on the rise do that. Now is the time. Go out and get 14 wins, be somebody. .500 is terrible.
 

Very true but you need quality wins and with all the equality the attrition there will be 8 invites not eleven some are selling. Finishing 8th is not acceptable in year 6 and i see and expect top 3. Win at UW, win somewhere big like Michigan. Programs on the rise do that. Now is the time. Go out and get 14 wins, be somebody. .500 is terrible.

I have to ask... do you really expect Top 3 with this roster, or simply because it is year 6? I agree year 6 should have more consistency and success than we have had, and if we had Carr as a starter/backup at point I would maybe be there with you. While Curry will help the offense a lot, they still have so many stretches where they struggle to score top 3 is tough to see. I do think top 5-6 should be expected, but don’t know they have the consistency yet on offense to get Top 3.


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Updated Big Ten Ranks

Non-conference Opponents overall D1 win %
1. Penn St 63.8%
2. Illinois 62.9%
3. Purdue 61.1%
4. wisconsin 54.6%
5. Maryland 51.5%
5. Ohio St 51.5%
7. Michigan St 51.1%
8. Indiana 50.5%
9. Rutgers 49.4%
10. Nebraska 48.2%
11. Michigan 46.9%
12. Iowa 44.1%
13. Northwestern 43.7%
14. GOPHERS 38.7%


Average Non-conference Opponent NET ranking
1. Illinois 115.27
2. Purdue 117.64
3. Penn St 124.18
4. wisconsin 132.82
5. Michigan St 149.36
6. Indiana 167.09
7. Ohio St 167.27
8. Nebraska 173.30
9. Maryland 174.09
10. Northwestern 181.55
11. GOPHERS 191.36
12. Iowa 194.00
13. Rutgers 200.20
14. Michigan 200.82


Average Non-conference Quad Game
1. wisconsin 2.36
2. Illinois 2.45
2. Purdue 2.45
4. Indiana 2.64
4. Penn St 2.64
6. Michigan St 2.73
7. Nebraska 2.90
8. Ohio St 2.91
9. Northwestern 3.09
10. GOPHERS 3.18
11. Rutgers 3.20
12. Iowa 3.27
12. Maryland 3.27
12. Michigan 3.27
 




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