Sagarin Predictions: Week 12

Gopher07

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Another week, another insane result for our Gophers. From losing by three scores as a double-digit favorite to winning by four scores as a double-digit underdog, the numbers just cannot figure out Minnesota this year. It's probably a symptom of youth and coaching change, as well as conference opponents that seem mostly mediocre (particularly the teams in the West .. a whole lot of "blah"). Very hard to figure out, but for now it would seem we have a dogfight on our hands this Saturday.

Northwestern are minor favorites at TCF, and so far this year we've split the toss up games - wins over Fresno and Indiana, losses at Maryland and Nebraska. The good news is, we've won the two home toss ups. The bad news is, when we lose toss ups, we've been hammered. Which one will it be on Saturday? One thing is for sure, a bowl game is a real possibility, and that's exciting. Senior day, bowl eligibility on the line ... if the team doesn't come out fired up I'm not sure what they're waiting for.

One other side note, it looks like the preseason predictions are trending toward correct again (for the third straight year). Before any games were played, the predicted record was 5-7 or 6-6.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa L (Predicted +9; Actual +17)
at Ohio State L (Predicted +26.5; Actual +16)
at Nebraska L (Predicted -4.5; Actual +25)
vs Indiana W (Predicted -3; Actual -7)
at Illinois L (Predicted -10.5; Actual +24)
vs Purdue W (Predicted +10; Actual -31)
vs Northwestern +3
at Wisconsin +11.5

Final record: 5-7 (2-7)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): None
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin

Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted.

B1G West Predicted Standings
COMING

B1G East Predicted Standings
COMING

Crossover Games
COMING

Interesting Notes
COMING

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
 
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Still a double digit dog to wi?:confused:

Yep. They're still a top 30 team according to the overall rankings. That said, they do much worse in the "recent" rankings which weigh recent results more heavily. According to those, they would be 6.5 point favorites at home over the Gophers this week.
 

I'd really, really like to get a win at home against Northwestern.

And one on the road at Wisconsin.

Is that asking too much? :)

Seriously, though, one more win would leave me feeling good about this (regular) season. It will likely be easier to accomplish that this Saturday. But on the other hand, the Badgers sure aren't who we thought they were.

JTG
 

I'd really, really like to get a win at home against Northwestern.

And one on the road at Wisconsin.

Is that asking too much? :)

Seriously, though, one more win would leave me feeling good about this (regular) season. It will likely be easier to accomplish that this Saturday. But on the other hand, the Badgers sure aren't who we thought they were.

JTG

A win against Northwestern would really help this program. It would give us a bowl berth and give the program a little momentum too. We have played pretty well at home this year and not too well on the road so this is the one you really have to get. They will need to play as well as they did vs. Purdue to have a shot at this one but it can be done!
 


I went back to the Preseason and its amazing how accurate this prediction can be. But, let's hope the preseason prediction of 5-7 ends up wrong and we wind up at 7-5 WITH THE AXE!!!!
 

At this rate, who knows what will happen. If the defense plays like they did v Purdue, then it's possible we win the last 2 even vs WI especially considering their QB has been. It could be a tale of 3 season: non con, w Robb Smith, and w Joe Rossi.

If our dline can at least maintain the LOS vs WI, our LB crew can play with them.
 

at Illinois -10.5 L (Predicted -10.5; Actual +24)
vs Purdue W (Predicted +10; Actual -31)

34.5 point difference in the wrong direction in the Illinois game and then a 41 point difference in the right direction against Purdue. Crazy how quickly it can change from week to week.
 

Yep. They're still a top 30 team according to the overall rankings. That said, they do much worse in the "recent" rankings which weigh recent results more heavily. According to those, they would be 6.5 point favorites at home over the Gophers this week.

+6.5 makes more sense. I'd like to see us take care of NW and wi struggle against Purdue. Get that closer to a pickem scenario. That would be a nice boost of confidence.
 






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