Minnesota Ranked Ahead of Northwestern by Advanced Stats

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These numbers have been wrong about the Gophers on both sides (predicting lopsided wins in lopsided loses and vice versa) this year, but still an interesting point of reference given that they are supposed to be "true to vegas" type numbers.

Also has Fresno State ranked 1 spot behind Ohio State so... who knows I guess.
 
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NU had two secondary starters, Jared McGee and Trae Williams, out with injuries suffered lagainst Notre Dame and lost Montre Hartage vs Iowa. Linebacker Nate Hall also hurt vs Iowa. D line is also banged up some, Thorson is not mobile on that knee, and they are on their third RB.

Northwestern does not match up well vs run pass option. Fitzgerald leading the charge to make it illegal.

BTN guys speculating Fitz may sit guys vs MN and IL to get as healthy as possible for Big Ten Championship game.
 

NU had two secondary starters, Jared McGee and Trae Williams, out with injuries suffered lagainst Notre Dame and lost Montre Hartage vs Iowa. Linebacker Nate Hall also hurt vs Iowa. D line is also banged up some, Thorson is not mobile on that knee, and they are on their third RB.

Northwestern does not match up well vs run pass option. Fitzgerald leading the charge to make it illegal.

BTN guys speculating Fitz may sit guys vs MN and IL to get as healthy as possible for Big Ten Championship game.

Thanks for providing the NW injury report.
 

Thanks for providing the NW injury report.
Not sure if you are being sarcastic but I do appreciate it.

Swingman - any more info on Fitz's stance on RPO?

Sent from my RS988 using Tapatalk
 

Fotz crusade against the RPO is funny. It is, as far as I can tell, a very much legal football play. Not really sure why it would be made illegal. He doesn’t have to like it but you can’t just want things taken out of the game due to dislike.
 


Fotz crusade against the RPO is funny. It is, as far as I can tell, a very much legal football play. Not really sure why it would be made illegal. He doesn’t have to like it but you can’t just want things taken out of the game due to dislike.

The problem is linemen downfield illegally if qb pulls ball and passes. His felling,and mine, is they need to more strictly enforce the lineman downfield rule. I believe, but not positive, you have 3 yards permissible in college and 1 in the pros. You even saw it in the Eagles game last night when their center was almost 10 yards downfield on a RPO and was engaged with the middle lb when Wentz passed it.
 

The problem is linemen downfield illegally if qb pulls ball and passes. His felling,and mine, is they need to more strictly enforce the lineman downfield rule. I believe, but not positive, you have 3 yards permissible in college and 1 in the pros. You even saw it in the Eagles game last night when their center was almost 10 yards downfield on a RPO and was engaged with the middle lb when Wentz passed it.

Yep, the rule is three yards in college. I've been closely watching (and re-watching) our OL the last five games. I can only think of 3-4 instances where one of our guys was noticeably out of the zone on an RPO pass, and none of 'em resulted in penalties.

It happens, but we don't seem to be trampling all over the spirit of the rule. Can't vouch for other teams, however.

JTG
 

S/P+ has a HUGE disparity between us and NWestern.

Gophers checking in at #53, Mildcats are way down at #77
 

NU had two secondary starters, Jared McGee and Trae Williams, out with injuries suffered lagainst Notre Dame and lost Montre Hartage vs Iowa. Linebacker Nate Hall also hurt vs Iowa. D line is also banged up some, Thorson is not mobile on that knee, and they are on their third RB.

Northwestern does not match up well vs run pass option. Fitzgerald leading the charge to make it illegal.

BTN guys speculating Fitz may sit guys vs MN and IL to get as healthy as possible for Big Ten Championship game.

Northwestern is in a really odd spot right now. On one hand it might make a lot of sense to rest guys in order to get as healthy as possible for the championship game. The downside to that of course is that it might lead to losses which could negatively impact what bowl you end up in if you lose the championship game.

Given the choice I would probably rest some guys for the game against Minnesota on the road in cold temps if I was going to do it. Will be interesting to see how Fitzgerald choses to handle things given that they have the division locked up regardless of what happens over the next few weeks.
 



Fitz can very well limit their liability by sitting out certain players and limiting the chances of losing key players for the B1G championship.
 

Fotz crusade against the RPO is funny. It is, as far as I can tell, a very much legal football play. Not really sure why it would be made illegal. He doesn’t have to like it but you can’t just want things taken out of the game due to dislike.

What would removing the RPO even look like? Announcing I'm Going to Pass or I'm Going to Run at the start of every down?
 

Who goes to the Rose Bowl. If NW loses the Big Ten championship I think they pick the second best team from the East.
 

S/P+ has a HUGE disparity between us and NWestern.

Gophers checking in at #53, Mildcats are way down at #77

Does S/P+ account for injuries and etc?

I remember us still looking good when we knew ... we had critical losses and were going to pay for them.
 



Fitzgerald in presser today says three of his starting defensive backs will be out..Trae Williams, Jared McGee, Montre Hartage...NFl has scouted Hartage as a cover corner.
 


The problem is linemen downfield illegally if qb pulls ball and passes. His felling,and mine, is they need to more strictly enforce the lineman downfield rule. I believe, but not positive, you have 3 yards permissible in college and 1 in the pros. You even saw it in the Eagles game last night when their center was almost 10 yards downfield on a RPO and was engaged with the middle lb when Wentz passed it.

I saw that last night. Makes it very hard for linebackers to read the play if a lineman is able to block you 5 yards downfield on a pass play. RPO is fine as long as illegal man downfield is called correctly.
 

Fitzgerald in presser today says three of his starting defensive backs will be out..Trae Williams, Jared McGee, Montre Hartage...NFl has scouted Hartage as a cover corner.

Hopefully will help open things up for TJ, Bateman, CAB, and Douglass to have a big day.
 

I saw that last night. Makes it very hard for linebackers to read the play if a lineman is able to block you 5 yards downfield on a pass play. RPO is fine as long as illegal man downfield is called correctly.

+1

I hate changing rules to address advantages that teams get from running creative plays. At the same time, however, you shouldn't be able to exploit an official's unwillingness to call legitimate penalties under the current rules.
 

Should be a good game. The thing that has always impressed me about Northwestern teams under Fitzgerald is that they usually play to their ability. They've never been a team that is chock full of top-drawer athletes, but they usually play to their strengths, work to find good match-ups, and don't ordinarily beat themselves. I think we match up with them well player-to-player, but (as the old saying goes) they play the games for a reason.
 

+1

I hate changing rules to address advantages that teams get from running creative plays. At the same time, however, you shouldn't be able to exploit an official's unwillingness to call legitimate penalties under the current rules.

I mean lineman downfield was a rule long ago... they just haven't bothered to call it.
 

S/P+ has a HUGE disparity between us and NWestern.

Gophers checking in at #53, Mildcats are way down at #77

Not quickly, but yes, it judges every single play so after we lost Winfield our defensive ranking plummeted 10 spots per week.
Takes some time to get all the way to where it should be.

We jumped 23 spots last week after falling 17 spots the week before.

SP+ has us as 6.7 point favorites with a win probability of 65% this weekend.

Kinda nuts to think about given that we're playing against the B1G west champion.

Other fun SP+ stats:
Seth Green has a higher marginal efficiency than Tanner Morgan. (Small sample sizes...)
Tanner Morgan has a higher marginal efficiency than ZA.

Bateman is still one of our least efficient receivers despite recent success.

Bryce Williams has caught every target this year and averages 16 yards per catch (we should use him for that more).

Bryce Witham averages 25 yards per target.
 

Bowl Eligible!

Hopefully will help open things up for TJ, Bateman, CAB, and Douglass to have a big day.

This game couldn't set up any better for the Gophers. Young team playing at home, not on road. Confidence growing in players that we can play with anyone. Defense showing huge improvement. We have established ourselves as a cold weather team. Cold weather again this Saturday. We should have 2 very heathy QBs available. Offensive line and TEs are raod grading opponents. Northwestern has 3/4 starters out in secondary, possibly a LB also. Northwestern clinched, so resting some players (letting up a bit also) is the natural reaction. It all adds up to win #6 and bowl eligibility! My only fear is their battering ram of a running back and solid o-line. Last season Wiscy and NW ran it straight down our throats to end the season. We need our D tackles to play like men against the run!
 

Not sure if you are being sarcastic but I do appreciate it.

Swingman - any more info on Fitz's stance on RPO?

Sent from my RS988 using Tapatalk

Providing an injury report for an upcoming opponent is certainly more useful than random BT teams for no reason. I couldn't care less about the Rutgers injury report for example.
 

This game couldn't set up any better for the Gophers. Young team playing at home, not on road. Confidence growing in players that we can play with anyone. Defense showing huge improvement. We have established ourselves as a cold weather team. Cold weather again this Saturday. We should have 2 very heathy QBs available. Offensive line and TEs are raod grading opponents. Northwestern has 3/4 starters out in secondary, possibly a LB also. Northwestern clinched, so resting some players (letting up a bit also) is the natural reaction. It all adds up to win #6 and bowl eligibility! My only fear is their battering ram of a running back and solid o-line. Last season Wiscy and NW ran it straight down our throats to end the season. We need our D tackles to play like men against the run!

Tough to feel too confident because Northwestern is one of those teams that just seems to find a way to win, but I agree that on paper things setup very well for us heading into this game. I think it will be a close game and won't be surprised if it is really low scoring as well.
 

Northwestern is in a really odd spot right now. On one hand it might make a lot of sense to rest guys in order to get as healthy as possible for the championship game. The downside to that of course is that it might lead to losses which could negatively impact what bowl you end up in if you lose the championship game.

Given the choice I would probably rest some guys for the game against Minnesota on the road in cold temps if I was going to do it. Will be interesting to see how Fitzgerald choses to handle things given that they have the division locked up regardless of what happens over the next few weeks.

I've thought of this too, and made a decision that if I were Fitz I would rest guys and shoot for the Big Ten Championship. A B1G Championship banner would be a bigger accomplishment. I would bet that's what the players would want, and people will remember that more than being the winner of the Taxslayer Bowl. In my opinion that's the route to take.
Although my memory is suspect these days, I can pretty much recall who played in all of the B1G title games (both winners and losers) but don't even know who played in what bowl the previous year, and where most of those bowl games even rank in relevance.
My 2¢.
 




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