Sagarin Predictions: Week 11

Not much to say after Saturday's lackluster performance. The Gophers now sit well below the bowl eligibility line and will need to score a major upset to even come close. Double-digit underdogs in two of our last three, it's not the way I (or anyone associated with the program, I'm sure) wanted things to go this year. Purdue's win over Iowa pushed their line way up, and while Northwestern didn't move too far, it's possible they'll be "likely in the L column" by game time. I shudder to think what the numbers would say if we hadn't pulled off that major upset against Fresno in week 2 (Fresno currently sits at #14 in the ratings, and would currently be +15 favorites over Minnesota on a neutral field).

Three more weeks to watch the Gophers in the regular season. Hopeful that things look better than what we all saw in Champaign.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa L (Predicted +9; Actual +17)
at Ohio State L (Predicted +26.5; Actual +16)
at Nebraska L (Predicted -4.5; Actual +25)
vs Indiana W (Predicted -3; Actual -7)
at Illinois -10.5 L (Predicted -10.5; Actual +24)
vs Purdue +10
vs Northwestern +5
at Wisconsin +14.5

Final record: 4-8 (1-8)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota):
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Purdue, @ Wisconsin

Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted.

B1G West Predicted Standings
Northwestern: 7-2
Purdue: 7-2
Iowa: 6-3
Wisconsin: 5-4
Nebraska: 2-7
Illinois: 2-7
Minnesota: 1-8

B1G East Predicted Standings
Michigan: 9-0
Ohio St: 7-2
Michigan St: 6-3
Penn St: 6-3
Maryland: 4-5
Indiana: 1-8
Rutgers: 0-9

Crossover Games
West: 9-12
East: 12-9

Interesting Notes
- NW last 3 games: +12.5 @ Iowa, -5 @ Minn, -18 vs Ill.
- Purdue last 3 games: -10 @ Minn, -3 vs Wisc, -9 @ Ind.
- Iowa last 3 games: -12.5 vs NW, -23 @ Ill, -17.5 vs Neb.
- Wisc last 3 games: +8 @ PSU, +3 @ Purd, -14.5 vs Minn.
- Michigan last 3 games: -38.5 @ Rutg, -26.5 vs Ind, -2 @ OSU.
- Ohio St last 3 games: -5 @ MSU, -13.5 @ MD, +2 vs Mich.

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10

Things have really taken an ugly turn.

Always appreciate the update, tho.

JTG

Gopher07 ... I appreciate these threads. I hope you do them the rest of the season, and I'll keeping reading them and commenting.

That said .... it's more or less an "academic" exercise at this point. I mean, the last prediction was off 34.5. That is not a prediction. Our data is swinging wayyyyy too wildly. No algorithm, theory, or equation in history would be able to take our data and make a reasonable prediction for the remainder of the season.

Frankly, I don't buy NW as "only" a +5. Every game we play the rest of the year, we *should* be double-digit dogs. Unless something freaky and unexpected goes down this coming weekend. Guess we'll see. But that would just throw off the predictor even worse ...


It still does seem amazing that we beat Fresno. That team's only loss so far is to us. They could easily win the Mountain West, maybe get to the NY6 game if Central Florida screws up. Crazy to think that could end up as our best win this year.

The NW spread seems off to me, as well.

Sagarin is just one measure, and no single measure can account for the wonderful variances of college football.

(Well, those variances are "wonderful" for some teams. It seems our variances primarily go in the other direction, although as Gophers_4life noted, we did beat Fresno.)

JTG

So the good news is we won't be on the wrong side of any upsets the rest of the way.

bleedsmaroonandgold said:

So the good news is we won't be on the wrong side of any upsets the rest of the way.

Click to expand...

I like the cut of your jib, bleedsmaroonandgold.

JTG