The Data Behind Kill and Fleck Two Years In

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I went through analysis to compare both programs talent from previous coaches recruits at the two year mark.

This is using only players from recruiting classes that showed on the 247 website so JUCO's that didn't sign as part of a class on 247 and walkons not listed on those classes are not included.
Players recruited but with no 247 ranking were given a ranking of 0.7500.


This takes both coaches at the start of their second year.


Kill 2nd Year (2012)

Recruiter Recruit Class Yr Class During Season Qty Avg Rating
Brewster 2008 RS Sr. 8 0.8691
Brewster 2009 RS Jr. - Sr. 13 0.8453
Brewster 2010 RS So. - Jr. 14 0.8325

Total players from previous coach: 35
Avg Ranking 0.8460
RS Junior, Seniors, or RS Seniors: 21



Fleck 2nd Year (2018)
Recruiter Recruit Class Yr Class During Season Qty Avg Rating
Kill 2014 RS Sr. 3 0.8053
Kill 2015 RS Jr. - Sr. 10 0.8268
Claeys 2016 RS So. - Jr. 14 0.8494

Total players from previous coach: 27
Avg Ranking 0.8303
RS Junior, Seniors, or RS Seniors: 10


At the first year in, both coaches were left with the following number of recruited players:
Kill in 2011: 55
Fleck in 2017: 47


These are the inherited players for each coach 2 years in.

Year Coach Name Size Rating
2008 Brewster MarQueis GrayBen Davis (Indianapolis, IN) 6-4 / 205 0.9143
2008 Brewster Keanon CooperSkyline (Dallas, TX) 6-0 / 190 0.8969
2008 Brewster Brandon GreenRobeson (Chicago, IL) 6-0 / 170 0.8938
2008 Brewster Spencer ReevesSkyline (Dallas, TX) 6-1 / 193 0.8733
2008 Brewster Troy StoudermireSkyline (Dallas, TX) 5-10 / 163 0.8542
2008 Brewster Deleon EskridgeJunipero Serra (San Mateo, CA) 5-11 / 181 0.851
2008 Brewster D.L. WilhiteBryan Station (Lexington, KY) 6-4 / 235 0.8417
2008 Brewster Ryan GrantEden Prairie (Eden Prairie, MN) 6-1 / 215 0.8274

2009 Brewster Ben PerrySouthlake Carroll (Southlake, TX) 6-5 / 253 0.7778
2009 Brewster Cameron WilsonRockwall-Heath (Rockwall, TX) 6-3 / 215 0.8111
2009 Brewster Dan OrseskeBrother Rice (Oak Lawn, IL) 6-3 / 195 0.8226
2009 Brewster Eric JacquesBlanche Ely (Pompano Beach, FL) 6-2 / 280 0.8333
2009 Brewster Brooks MichelCarmel (Carmel, IN) 6-7 / 280 0.8354
2009 Brewster Ed OlsonMahtomedi Senior (Saint Paul, MN) 6-7 / 285 0.8497
2009 Brewster Victor KeiseNorth Broward Prep (Pompano Beach, FL) 6-1 / 160 0.8528
2009 Brewster Kenneth WatkinsBrother Rice (Bloomfield Hills, MI) 6-0 / 185 0.8622
2009 Brewster Matt GarinEastview Senior (Saint Paul, MN) 6-4 / 220 0.8843
2009 Brewster Ra'shede HagemanWashburn (Minneapolis, MN) 6-6 / 250 0.8863
2009 Brewster Michael CarterBlanche Ely (Pompano Beach, FL) 5-11 / 160 0.9127
2009 Brewster Moses AlipateJefferson Senior (Alexandria, MN) 6-5 / 230 0.9177
2009 Brewster Zach MottlaCretin Derham Hall (Saint Paul, MN) - / - 0.75
2010 Brewster Logan HuttonLa Marque (La Marque, TX) 6-1 / 190 0.7667
2010 Brewster Sean FergusonHun School (Princeton, NJ) 6-6 / 303 0.8
2010 Brewster Dwayne MitchellEdna Karr (New Orleans, LA) 6-2 / 220 0.8368
2010 Brewster Zac EppingTremper (Kenosha, WI) 6-2 / 274 0.8385
2010 Brewster Harold LeganiaEdna Karr (New Orleans, LA) 6-3 / 250 0.8448
2010 Brewster Marek LenkiewiczVictor J Andrew (Bolingbrook, IL) 6-5 / 250 0.8484
2010 Brewster Devon WrightJ. P. Taravella (Pompano Beach, FL) 6-0 / 190 0.8573
2010 Brewster Brock VereenValencia (Valencia, CA) 6-0 / 175 0.859
2010 Brewster Donnell KirkwoodAtlantic (Delray Beach, FL) 5-10 / 197 0.8622
2010 Brewster James ManuelWarren Central (Indianapolis, IN) 6-2 / 200 0.8653
2010 Brewster Lamonte EdwardsWoodbury Senior (Saint Paul, MN) 6-2 / 215 0.8813
2010 Brewster Jimmy GjereIrondale Senior (Saint Paul, MN) 6-7 / 300 0.9072
2010 Brewster James GillumPearl River (Pearl River, LA) 5-11 / 190 0.75
2010 Brewster Dexter ForemanManvel (Manvel, TX) 6-1 / 220 0.75




Year Name Size Rating
2014 Jerry Gibson 6-3 / 220 0.815
2014 Jared Weyler 6-4 / 280 0.8015
2014 Gary Moore 6-4 / 285 0.7993
2015 Winston DeLattiboudere 6-3 / 216 0.8347
2015 Shannon Brooks 6-0 / 205 0.8431
2015 Quinn Oseland 6-6 / 301 0.8553
2015 Julian Huff 6-0 / 225 0.8033
2015 Jonathan Femi-Cole 6-0 / 218 0.827
2015 Jacob Huff 5-10 / 205 0.8155
2015 Colton Beebe 6-3 / 252 0.7996
2015 Bryce Witham 6-4 / 240 0.8219
2015 Bronson Dovich 6-5 / 295 0.8391
2015 Antonio Shenault 5-11 / 185 0.8284
2016 Tyler Johnson 6-3 / 187 0.8643
2016 Thomas Barber 6-1 / 225 0.8425
2016 Tai'yon Devers 6-4 / 220 0.8301
2016 Seth Green 6-4 / 216 0.8813
2016 Sam Schlueter 6-6 / 290 0.8603
2016 Phillip Howard 5-11 / 185 0.8509
2016 Ko Kieft 6-4 / 230 0.8037
2016 Kiondre Thomas 6-0 / 181 0.8466
2016 Kamal Martin 6-4 / 230 0.8518
2016 Donnell Greene 6-7 / 345 0.7933
2016 Conner Olson 6-5 / 295 0.8441
2016 Coney Durr 5-10.5 / 193 0.8375
2016 Carter Coughlin 6-4 / 223 0.9566
2016 Antoine Winfield 5-10 / 196 0.8285
 


I don't know how hard or easy this would be, but it'd be interesting to see numbers by position as well. I see that as a bigger issue than just the fact there are few - there are some positions that are basically void of those players.
 

Using this analysis, Antoine Winfields lack of "talent" would be dragging down the average if he were in any of Brewsters classes. Recruiting ratings are not the same thing as talent. For a recruiting class that has not gotten to college yet, it's the best we have. Once they hit college, it is better to look at how those recruits played at the college level.
 

By postion:

2012
QB 3
RB 5
WR 5
TE 2
OL 10
DL 8
LB 4
DB 9
K 1


2018
QB 1
RB 2
WR 2
TE 3
OL 6
DL 4
LB 4
DB 5


Difference in # at position. 2012 over 2018
QB 2
RB 3
WR 3
TE -1
OL 4
DL 4

LB 0
DB 4

I think this really shows what a difference there was, and it was evident last year especially.
QB position and instead of having 9 DB's to only have 5 shows why this defense has had such issues with a single injury or two. Per reports, QB and DB are the most difficult positions to replace with new talent.
Take it one step further and Defensive line and O-line, two positions where a year of putting on weight and strength would be most necessary were at huge disparities compared to when Kill took over Brewster's talent.
 


A lot of people point to how Kill had to work to get kids to go to class, but it's even tougher to get kids to go to class to be eligible if they simply don't exist.
 

Using this analysis, Antoine Winfields lack of "talent" would be dragging down the average if he were in any of Brewsters classes. Recruiting ratings are not the same thing as talent. For a recruiting class that has not gotten to college yet, it's the best we have. Once they hit college, it is better to look at how those recruits played at the college level.

The accuracy or inaccuracy of the rankings has often been discussed here. But even an ill-rated recruit is better than no option whatsoever. Just like having 3 QB to choose from is better than 1 QB. Or having 10 offensive lineman gives you better backups than 6.

But as a whole, rankings is the best option we have to evaluate from the point they were recruited and as a whole the average resources available to Kill were better than the resources Fleck inherited. Of course, some kids perform above their ranking and some below, but on the best non-biased source of info we have (ranking scores) this is what the data is telling us.
 

Here are avg rankings by position for those two years.

Position, qty, avg ranking, qty, avg ranking

Pos- 2012 -2012 - 2018-2018
QB 3 0.861 1 0.881
RB 5 0.837 2 0.835
TE 2 0.804 3 0.808
WR 5 0.827 2 0.858
OL 10 0.842 6 0.832
DL 8 0.835 4 0.820
LB 4 0.859 4 0.864
DB 9 0.827 5 0.831
K 1 0.823 0 0.000


At QB, the 1 QB for 2018 is Seth Green at 0.881 but his average is higher because I gave Dexter Foreman of the 2012 class a 0.750. The other two 2012 QB were both scored higher than Seth.

2012
Name Rating
Moses Alipate 0.9177
MarQueis Gray 0.9143

2018 ws also higher at WR but only with two returning.

Tyler Johnson 0.8643
Phillip Howard 0.8509

2012
Brandon Green - 0.8938
Victor Keise - 0.8528
Devin Crawford-Tufts - 0.8149
Cameron Wilson - 0.8111
Logan Hutton - 0.7667

But in this case, the top two outscore the top (and only) two of 2018.

Most of the other positions are similar in rankings, so it's a quantity issue more than a perceived quality issue.
 
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Somebody want to summarize or make heads or tails of the information?
 



A lot of people point to how Kill had to work to get kids to go to class, but it's even tougher to get kids to go to class to be eligible if they simply don't exist.

It's even tougher to get those non-existent guys to bulk up in the off-season. :D

JTG
 

A lot of people point to how Kill had to work to get kids to go to class, but it's even tougher to get kids to go to class to be eligible if they simply don't exist.

In addition, these players stop working out etc. It was a complete mess. Kill was one of the only people willing to come here to turn this around. We really have to hand it to Kill for tackling this head on.
 

Somebody want to summarize or make heads or tails of the information?

Despite what is often argued on here regarding the state of the program when taking over:

Kill inherited:
Total players from previous coach: 35
Avg Ranking 0.8460
RS Junior, Seniors, or RS Seniors: 21

Fleck Inherited:
Total players from previous coach: 27
Avg Ranking 0.8303
RS Junior, Seniors, or RS Seniors: 10


Summary: Kill had more talent, and higher rated talent on the program going into his second season than Fleck did going into his second season.
 

In addition, these players stop working out etc. It was a complete mess. Kill was one of the only people willing to come here to turn this around. We really have to hand it to Kill for tackling this head on.


Kill was hired Dec 10, 2010.

He then went 1-6 through Oct 22, 2011.

Kill was able to extend his contract to a 7 year contract on or by Oct 25, 2011.
 



I wish I could remember which thread it was on, but dpod did a great position by position comparison of the personnel Kill inherited vs what Fleck inherited. Anyone who actually watched the games would know which of those was a better set of players. But if you would prefer to try to justify a bad year for a coach by relying on online ratings based on high school performance, have at it.
 

I wish I could remember which thread it was on, but dpod did a great position by position comparison of the personnel Kill inherited vs what Fleck inherited. Anyone who actually watched the games would know which of those was a better set of players. But if you would prefer to try to justify a bad year for a coach by relying on online ratings based on high school performance, have at it.

If you have the link, I'll be happy to compare the data.

Mine is more to show the quantity of players available. Not so much on the rankings, but I included them to show that they are arguable similar with a slight advantage to Kill.
From a quantity standpoint, there is a clear difference.
 

I wish I could remember which thread it was on, but dpod did a great position by position comparison of the personnel Kill inherited vs what Fleck inherited. Anyone who actually watched the games would know which of those was a better set of players. But if you would prefer to try to justify a bad year for a coach by relying on online ratings based on high school performance, have at it.

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...ally-better-in-one-year&p=1444733#post1444733

QB - Gray vs. Rhoda - slight advantage 2011
RB - Bennett/Kirkwood vs. Smith/Brooks - huge advantage 2017
WR - McKnight/Green/Barker vs. Johnson/Carter/Still - slight advantage 2017
TE - McGarry/Lair vs. Lingen/Wozniak - gigantic advantage 2017
OL - Olson/Bunders/Wynn/Orton/Gjere vs. Greene/Wright/Weyler/Olson/Connelly - slight advantage 2017
DL - DeLattiboudere/Jackson/Richardson/Coughlin vs. Perry/Jacobs/Kirksey/Wilhite - slight advantage 2017
LB - Martin/Barber/Celestin vs. Rallis/Tinsley/Cooper - slight advantage 2017, particularly considering Coughlin and Cashman should be playing most of their time here
DB - Vereen/Stoudermire/Royston/Salamon vs. Shenault/Thomas/Winfield/McGhee - slight advantage 2017

We are slightly better to much, much better at every position group in 2017 except QB. Keep in mind that many of the 2011 players were freshmen/sophomores and weren't as good as they would be later. I can't believe that we have to litigate this point when we're discussing a 3-9 team (that lost by 58 to Michigan, 28 to Purdue, 27 to Nebraska, and 29 to Wisconsin) vs. what should be a 4-0 team. This is seriously one of the stupidest arguments I've ever had in my 10 years here - kudos.
 
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This data is a great example of how people who are obsessed with recruiting rankings will never stop allowing it be a judge of talent.
 

so based on all this data and analysis I think I have been able to formulate the following conclusion

Brewster after two years - we really sucked
Kill after two years - we sucked
Fleck after two years - we sucked

it's a generational thing - as the late Jack Brickhouse used to say about the Cubs..."everyone has a bad century every now and then"
 

so based on all this data and analysis I think I have been able to formulate the following conclusion

Brewster after two years - we really sucked
Kill after two years - we sucked
Fleck after two years - we sucked

it's a generational thing - as the late Jack Brickhouse used to say about the Cubs..."everyone has a bad century every now and then"

I'm not sure if we should say we suck at this point with all the underclassman. Say what you want. Disagree with you.
 

Wake up, the reality is that the Gophers averaged a 5th place finish in Big Ten West 2011-2017.

We are arguing about rising out of mediocrity. I sincerely hope PJ Fleck can turn things around. You know how tough it is as the track records of NW and Iowa show being in the shadows of Wisconsin. Now, we've got Purdue, Nebraska added to Iowa and NW. Minnesota is forever entrenched in 5th or 6th place unless PJ Fleck's team starts to make noise next season.

That is the reality of how tough it is for Minnesota. I am always optimistic that next year, the next year, etc... will be better.
 

so based on all this data and analysis I think I have been able to formulate the following conclusion

Brewster after two years - we really sucked
Kill after two years - we sucked
Fleck after two years - we sucked

it's a generational thing - as the late Jack Brickhouse used to say about the Cubs..."everyone has a bad century every now and then"

Placing within a division (5th vs 3rd) is not a consistent measurement.

A better option for indexing would be to use a consistent rating like Sagarin's.

Our end of year Sagarin scores for previous years for reference (we are currently 61 but season isn't over):

Fleck
2017: 72

Claeys
2016: 25

Kill
2015: 64
2014: 38
2013: 58
2012: 68
2011: 88

Brewster
2010: 93
2009: 64
2008: 75
2007: 123
 

Kill was hired Dec 10, 2010.

He then went 1-6 through Oct 22, 2011.

Kill was able to extend his contract to a 7 year contract on or by Oct 25, 2011.

'well, to be perfectly honest with ya, we're a young team' -JK
 

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...ally-better-in-one-year&p=1444733#post1444733

QB - Gray vs. Rhoda - slight advantage 2011
RB - Bennett/Kirkwood vs. Smith/Brooks - huge advantage 2017
WR - McKnight/Green/Barker vs. Johnson/Carter/Still - slight advantage 2017
TE - McGarry/Lair vs. Lingen/Wozniak - gigantic advantage 2017
OL - Olson/Bunders/Wynn/Orton/Gjere vs. Greene/Wright/Weyler/Olson/Connelly - slight advantage 2017
DL - DeLattiboudere/Jackson/Richardson/Coughlin vs. Perry/Jacobs/Kirksey/Wilhite - slight advantage 2017
LB - Martin/Barber/Celestin vs. Rallis/Tinsley/Cooper - slight advantage 2017, particularly considering Coughlin and Cashman should be playing most of their time here
DB - Vereen/Stoudermire/Royston/Salamon vs. Shenault/Thomas/Winfield/McGhee - slight advantage 2017

We are slightly better to much, much better at every position group in 2017 except QB. Keep in mind that many of the 2011 players were freshmen/sophomores and weren't as good as they would be later. I can't believe that we have to litigate this point when we're discussing a 3-9 team (that lost by 58 to Michigan, 28 to Purdue, 27 to Nebraska, and 29 to Wisconsin) vs. what should be a 4-0 team. This is seriously one of the stupidest arguments I've ever had in my 10 years here - kudos.

First of all, this is comparing first year, and Fleck's first year was better than Kill's first year by record and Sagarin ranking (probably most computer rankings) despite having less bodies and lower ranked bodies.

The point of comparing what I am, is I'm showing going into their second season which shows a bigger disparity in Jr/Sr talent Kill vs Fleck.

QB -
2012
Gray, MarQueis Sr QB
Leidner, Mitch Fr QB
Nelson, Philip Fr QB
Shortell, Max So QB

2018
ZA - Freshman
TM - Freshman

If you look at the roster position by position the depth is almost double in number of upperclassman players, especially at O-Line, D-line, and DB which are probably most important outside of QB.
 

'well, to be perfectly honest with ya, we're a young team' -JK

Jerry's just a good ol' standup guy. How can you not trust him. He's a salt of the earth kind a guy who talks black soil and wonders how many bushels of corn an acre you can get here in Minnesota.
 

This data is a great example of how people who are obsessed with recruiting rankings will never stop allowing it be a judge of talent.

The most important piece of recruiting classes are whether they will actually play for the team in 3-4 years.
 

Using this analysis, Antoine Winfields lack of "talent" would be dragging down the average if he were in any of Brewsters classes. Recruiting ratings are not the same thing as talent. For a recruiting class that has not gotten to college yet, it's the best we have. Once they hit college, it is better to look at how those recruits played at the college level.
Paris Hamilton thinks your statement is BS.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

First of all, this is comparing first year, and Fleck's first year was better than Kill's first year by record and Sagarin ranking (probably most computer rankings) despite having less bodies and lower ranked bodies.

The point of comparing what I am, is I'm showing going into their second season which shows a bigger disparity in Jr/Sr talent Kill vs Fleck.

QB -
2012
Gray, MarQueisSrQB
Leidner, MitchFrQB
Nelson, PhilipFrQB
Shortell, MaxSoQB

2018
ZA - Freshman
TM - Freshman

If you look at the roster position by position the depth is almost double in number of upperclassman players, especially at O-Line, D-line, and DB which are probably most important outside of QB.

Less and lower ranked bodies is misleading. The differences between the two are very, very narrow.

But you’ve been abusing data to further your agenda for awhile now.

There are two kinds of lies. Lies. Damn Lies and statistics. You’ve resorted to all 3 on this board.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Less and lower ranked bodies is misleading. The differences between the two are very, very narrow.

But you’ve been abusing data to further your agenda for awhile now.

There are two kinds of lies. Lies. Damn Lies and statistics. You’ve resorted to all 3 on this board.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm sorry you feel like two freshman QB's is a safer bet than:

2012
Gray, MarQueis SrQB
Leidner, Mitch FrQB
Nelson, Philip FrQB
Shortell, Max SoQB

Please explain where I lied.
 

I'm sorry you feel like two freshman QB's is a safer bet than:

2012
Gray, MarQueis SrQB
Leidner, Mitch FrQB
Nelson, Philip FrQB
Shortell, Max SoQB

Please explain where I lied.

Two freshman quarterbacks? Don't forget Croft and Green. They were both on the roster when Fleck inherited it.
 

First of all, this is comparing first year, and Fleck's first year was better than Kill's first year by record and Sagarin ranking (probably most computer rankings) despite having less bodies and lower ranked bodies.

The point of comparing what I am, is I'm showing going into their second season which shows a bigger disparity in Jr/Sr talent Kill vs Fleck.

QB -
2012
Gray, MarQueis Sr QB
Leidner, Mitch Fr QB
Nelson, Philip Fr QB
Shortell, Max So QB

2018
ZA - Freshman
TM - Freshman

If you look at the roster position by position the depth is almost double in number of upperclassman players, especially at O-Line, D-line, and DB which are probably most important outside of QB.

If you're going to include Marquis Gray in the 2012 QB list then you should have Seth Green in your 2018 list because he's played the position as much if not more now than Marquis did in 2012. I know that doesn't fit what you want for a narrative in this thread.
Along with that, in year 1 PJ ran off the other QB who could be part of the 2018 group. That was his choice, but to say he was left with just ZA and TM in year two isn't quite the same, because he was the reason Croft decided to go elsewhere.
 




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