Zulgad: Don’t get defensive: Fleck might have little choice but to fire coordinator

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BleedGopher

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per Judd:

Like it or not, P.J. Fleck is going to get a pass on this season from the decision-makers on the University of Minnesota campus.

The Gophers can play a competitive game at Ohio State, get blown out at Nebraska or go winless in the conference and the second-year coach is going to be in no jeopardy of losing his job. It doesn’t matter. Fleck knows it, athletic director Mark Coyle knows it and so does everyone else.

That doesn’t mean Fleck can dismiss everything going on around him in the name of having a young team. Fleck needs to be mindful of the fact that the luxury of having time to get the Gophers on the right track isn’t going to be there much longer and expectations are sure to increase in 2019 and even more in 2020.

From all accounts, Fleck has been accumulating a pretty good list of recruits so the talent level is going to improve. But there has to be major concern that has nothing to do with talent and everything to do with coaching.

Fleck’s defensive coordinator, Robb Smith, is overseeing a unit that has gotten into the habit of embarrassing itself on a weekly basis. The Gophers’ apologists will point to the fact the defense is missing standout safety Antoine Winfield Jr., but the realists will point out that doesn’t provide absolution to be atrocious.

Atrocious is what this defense has been in Big Ten play for the past six games. Dating to a loss last Nov. 18 at Northwestern, the Gophers have given up 39 points to the Wildcats; 31 points to Wisconsin; 42 points at Maryland (in this season’s conference opener); 48 points to Iowa; 30 points at Ohio State; and 53 points at Nebraska. That is 243 points — or an average of 40.5 points per game — and only seven of them have come on a turnover by the offense.

Fleck’s expertise is on the offensive side of the ball and there have been definite positives in that area, but as the head coach of this team Fleck also is charged with making sure this entire team is on the right track.

Right now, the defense isn’t even coming close to doing its part and Smith is a part of the problem. Fleck is a positive guy who never likes to focus on the negative. Unfortunately for Fleck, acknowledging the latter is part of being a head coach and so is firing a coordinator.

Fleck might soon have make a decision. Is his friendship with Smith the most important thing or does putting his football program in the best position possible his top priority? If the Gophers defense continues to play this way, it should be an easy call.

http://www.1500espn.com/news/2018/1...-might-little-choice-make-coordinator-change/

Go Gophers!!
 

I feel like writers write these articles like this thinking "Gosh how can I say I want the coach to fire a dude... without straight up saying it.... oh I got it."
 

I feel like what he is saying is obvious.
You keep losing and keep allowing 40-50 points per game, action needs to be taken.
I don't think PJ is just procrastinating on executing a plan thinking improvement isn't needed.
 

I honestly think PJ is thinking if we keep our offense on the field long enough and then our defense is on the sideline, problem solved. Probably why we snap the ball in the last 5 seconds on just about every down(drives me crazy). Eat up the time offensively, less time to worry about Smith’s misfortunes.
 

Doubtful. Based on his comments he is supportive of his coordinators and aknowledges he is short players in some positions. He has said he believes the D concepts will work when we aren't short players or playing them out of position. Sounds like an endorsement to me and I doubt he would be forced to fire them this early in his tenure by anyone else either.


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CentralGopher said:
Doubtful. Based on his comments he is supportive of his coordinators and aknowledges he is short players in some positions. He has said he believes the D concepts will work when we aren't short players or playing them out of position. Sounds like an endorsement to me and I doubt he would be forced to fire them this early in his tenure by anyone else either.


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Click to expand...

If he wanted to fire Smith after the season, do you think he would be openly criticizing him to the media? If he were to call out coaches or players in interviews it would just create tension among the team and make things worse. I think his statements mean little to nothing.

Ohio state and Iowa are both in a class above us so I don't think too much can be taken from the defensive performance in those games. We have 3 more games that should be close on the schedule. There's a decent chance Fleck hasn't made up his mind yet. If we give up 40 points per game in those 3 games, I'd be surprised to see Robb Smith back. If the defense looks better in those games, things look a lot less concerning.
 

There was a fair amount of coaching turnover from year 1 (or 0) to year 2 (or 1).

I would not be surprised to see some more coaching turnover after this season - not necessarily at the coordinator level, but other coaches. I have no insider information, just a hunch that there could be some more movement on the staff.
 

Didn't Smith almost leave this off-season? I thought that was rumored.

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If Fleck wants smith to stay he should keep him.
If Fleck doesn’t think he can get it done he should fire him.
He shouldn’t listen to anyone, nor do I think he will.
 



This is somewhat a Catch-22.

If you feel like the scheme is inadequate and fire Robb Smith and bring in a new coordinator, your defense is now at year 0 again. See Brewster, Tim. This makes winning next year and the year after (the critical years for Coach Fleck's future) challenging. And if it turns out it was personnel and not scheme (too many young players/out of position players this year) it could result in worse records than they would have had.

If you feel like the scheme is OK and coaching is inadequate, if he fires Robb Smith will he find another coach willing to reuse Smith's scheme? Will that coach legitimately be better than Smith? Can the team be successful in that scenario?

If you keep Robb Smith, whether the personnel/scheme/whatever is correct or not, the defense has to improve next year or Fleck's going to be on the hot seat going into 2020, and making the coordinator change then is probably going to be too little, too late (assuming the offense doesn't become some unstoppable juggernaut between now and then).

I know several people on this forum were not happy about Smith being hired. I really don't know a lot about whether his scheme is fundamentally flawed or whether it was circumstances in the past. I just know that I've rarely seen changing coordinators being a magic bullet to solve a team's problems. I guess this is why Fleck gets the big bucks - he's got to decide which way to go with the above criteria (and more) while also having a personal relationship with Smith. I'm sure it's a very hard decision.

MinnesotaNice said:
Didn't Smith almost leave this off-season? I thought that was rumored.

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Click to expand...

I don't remember that personally. I think there might have been a misreport that he was moving when it was actually someone else. I also think there were several members on this board that were wishing he would leave. :)
 

He has said he is out-recruiting current players to make the team better. The same thing has to be said about overall team performance and coaching.

Failure is growth, but not when you are being routed week after week in Big Ten play. Jerry Kill and company did not get routed week after week. They were able to stop the bleeding. And Jerry Kill hated to be embarrass.

To me if the Gophers are routed/do not win a game the rest of the season, that calls for contemplation about defensive coaching. It is only fair. You just don't give up critical big plays with regularity and not turn it around. Sure, they are thin in the secondary. The reality is except for a handful, the Gophers defense are lacking seasoned talent. But, can they motivate the defensive line and be creative in different ways with the team to prevent the total and embarrassing failure of the defense?

I understand the need for patience. It is PJ Fleck's call. As has been mentioned repeatedly, it takes four to six years before you see the fruits of labor. And there are other measures that are equally or more important to the foundation of a program. That is serving the interest of the players to to graduate and become productive members of society.

PJ Fleck ought to talk to Glenn Mason about defensive failures. It cost him his job. Patience only goes so far.
 
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I believe Fleck feels he will be able to get the guys recruited to fit each offensive and defensive system to balance things out. He will do so over the next 2 years. Remember he only has one true B1G recruiting year in the program. Fleck does not want 245 lb DE's in his system. Kill/Claeys switched defensive systems because they couldn't recruit DL to fit. Fleck is trying to recruit to his system. We'll see if he can do it.
 

hungan1 said:
He has said he is out-recruiting current players to make the team better. The same thing has to be said about overall team performance and coaching.

Failure is growth, but not when you are being routed week to week in Big Ten play. Jerry Kill and company did not get routed week after week. They were able to stop the bleeding. And Jerry Kill hated to be embarrass.

To me if the Gophers are routed/do not win a game the rest of the season, that calls for contemplation about coaching. It is only fair. You just don't give up critical big plays with regularity and not turn it around. Sure, they are thin in the secondary. But, can they motivate the defensive line and be creative in different ways with the team to prevent the total and embarrassing failure of the defense?

I understand the need for patience. It is PJ Fleck's call. As has been mentioned repeatedly, it takes four to six years before you see the fruits of labor. And there are other measures that are equally or more important to the foundation of a program. That is serving the interest of the players to to graduate and become productive members of society.

PJ Fleck ought to talk to Glenn Mason about defensive failures. It cost him his job.
Click to expand...


September 24 6:00 PM No. 12 (FCS) North Dakota State* TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis BTN L 24–37
October 1 11:00 AM at No. 19 Michigan Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, Michigan (Little Brown Jug) BTN L 0–58
October 8 11:00 AM at Purdue Ross–Ade Stadium • West Lafayette, Indiana ESPN L 17–45
October 22 2:30 PM No. 13 Nebraska TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis ABC/ESPN2 L 14–41
November 12 2:30 PM No. 16 Wisconsin TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe) BTN L 13–42
November 19 11:00 AM at Northwestern Ryan Field • Evanston, Illinois BTN L 13–28
September 29 11:00 AM at Iowa Kinnick Stadium • Iowa City, Iowa (Floyd of Rosedale) ESPN2 L 13–31
October 13 11:00 AM Northwestern TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis ESPN2 L 13–21 49,651
October 20 11:00 AM at Wisconsin Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, Wisconsin (Paul Bunyan's Axe) ESPNU L 13–38
November 17 2:30 PM at No. 16 Nebraska Memorial Stadium • Lincoln, Nebraska BTN L 14–38
November 24 2:30 PM Michigan State TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis BTN L 10–26
September 28 2:30 PM Iowa TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis, MN (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale) ABC/ESPN2 L 7–23
October 5 2:30 PM at No. 17 Michigan Michigan Stadium • Ann Arbor, MI (Battle for the Little Brown Jug) ABC/ESPN2 L 13–42
September 13 3:00 PM at TCU* Amon G. Carter Stadium • Fort Worth, TX FS1 L 7–30
January 1 12:00 PM vs. No. 16 Missouri* Orlando Citrus Bowl Stadium • Orlando, FL (Citrus Bowl) ABC L 17–33
October 3 11:00 AM at #16 Northwestern Ryan Field • Evanston, IL BTN L 0–27
October 17 2:30 PM Nebraska TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis, MN ($5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy) ESPN2 L 25–48
 



hungan1 said:
He has said he is out-recruiting current players to make the team better. The same thing has to be said about overall team performance and coaching.

Failure is growth, but not when you are being routed week to week in Big Ten play. Jerry Kill and company did not get routed week after week. They were able to stop the bleeding. And Jerry Kill hated to be embarrass.

To me if the Gophers are routed/do not win a game the rest of the season, that calls for contemplation about defensive coaching. It is only fair. You just don't give up critical big plays with regularity and not turn it around. Sure, they are thin in the secondary. The reality is except for a handful, the Gophers defense are lacking seasoned talent. But, can they motivate the defensive line and be creative in different ways with the team to prevent the total and embarrassing failure of the defense?

I understand the need for patience. It is PJ Fleck's call. As has been mentioned repeatedly, it takes four to six years before you see the fruits of labor. And there are other measures that are equally or more important to the foundation of a program. That is serving the interest of the players to to graduate and become productive members of society.

PJ Fleck ought to talk to Glenn Mason about defensive failures. It cost him his job. Patience only goes so far.
Click to expand...


Jerry Kill had 29 losses as head coach at Minnesota.

His average margin of loss in those losses was 17.2 points

Here are his margins of defeat in his losses.

2
3
4
6
7
7
7
8
8
10
11
13
13
15
16
16
16
18
22
23
23
24
25
27
27
28
31
31
58


Less than a quarter were a TD game or less.
55% were by more than 2 TD's (14 points)
 

Fleck so far has lost 11 games
His current average margin of defeat is 19.18

3 of 11 (27%) have been by 7 or less.
7 of his 11 games have been by margins greater than 14. 63%
 

Why didn't Fleck's coaches come with him from Western?

Also, Kill took over a terrible Brewster team. Fleck inherited a 9 - 4 team. If Fleck is out recruiting himself, why hasn't he placed one scholarship quarter back on the roster after 2 years?
 

I feel like "average margin of defeat in losses" is an absurd way to measure a coach. Under that metric, if you have two coaches, both win three in blowouts, both play three close games, and both lose three blowouts, then the coach who wins the three close games will look worse than the one who loses them, because the three close losses will reduce the margin of defeat. If we are comparing coaches ability to avoid getting embarrassed, look at the total percentage of games (or big ten games) that end on blowout losses, not the percentage of losses that are blowouts.
 


gopherveteran said:
Why didn't Fleck's coaches come with him from Western?

Also, Kill took over a terrible Brewster team. Fleck inherited a 9 - 4 team. If Fleck is out recruiting himself, why hasn't he placed one scholarship quarter back on the roster after 2 years?
Click to expand...

1. and Kill was terrible the first 2 seasons.
2. a 9-4 team is a lazy take
3. He has two scholarship QB's Morgan and Annexstad. Annexstad is getting his a year late to help the program out.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I feel like "average margin of defeat in losses" is an absurd way to measure a coach.
Click to expand...

True. If I jumped into a cab with Bill Gates and Warren Buffet, we would be -- on average -- three of the wealthiest men in America.

But damned if I'm paying for that cab ride.

JTG
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I feel like "average margin of defeat in losses" is an absurd way to measure a coach. Under that metric, if you have two coaches, both win three in blowouts, both play three close games, and both lose three blowouts, then the coach who wins the three close games will look worse than the one who loses them, because the three close losses will reduce the margin of defeat. If we are comparing coaches ability to avoid getting embarrassed, look at the total percentage of games (or big ten games) that end on blowout losses, not the percentage of losses that are blowouts.
Click to expand...

A previous poster said "at least Kill wasn't being blown out week after week".
I provided a list of games that said the contrary.

The next step I took was to look if margin of loss was unusually higher for one versus the other, and it's inconclusive at this point.
They are similar.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I feel like "average margin of defeat in losses" is an absurd way to measure a coach. Under that metric, if you have two coaches, both win three in blowouts, both play three close games, and both lose three blowouts, then the coach who wins the three close games will look worse than the one who loses them, because the three close losses will reduce the margin of defeat. If we are comparing coaches ability to avoid getting embarrassed, look at the total percentage of games (or big ten games) that end on blowout losses, not the percentage of losses that are blowouts.
Click to expand...

By utilizing only Big Ten games, you are skewing it in favor of Kill because Fleck has did not lost a non-conference game where Kill had.
 


gopherveteran said:
Why didn't Fleck's coaches come with him from Western?

Also, Kill took over a terrible Brewster team. Fleck inherited a 9 - 4 team. If Fleck is out recruiting himself, why hasn't he placed one scholarship quarter back on the roster after 2 years?
Click to expand...

Are you ever right (and/or factual) about anything you post? Anything at all? Dear Lord.

And what's a quarter back?
 

gopherveteran said:
Why didn't Fleck's coaches come with him from Western?

Also, Kill took over a terrible Brewster team. Fleck inherited a 9 - 4 team. If Fleck is out recruiting himself, why hasn't he placed one scholarship quarter back on the roster after 2 years?
Click to expand...
No he didn't. He inherited a program that went 9-4 the year prior. The team is different every year.

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MinnesotaNice said:
No he didn't. He inherited a program that went 9-4 the year prior. The team is different every year.

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Click to expand...

Mitch Leidner and Jalen Myrick were total non-factors under Fleck.

Even from a team leadership standpoint, Leidner went from a 100 under Claeys to a 0 with Fleck.
 

37score said:
Mitch Leidner and Jalen Myrick were total non-factors under Fleck.

Even from a team leadership standpoint, Leidner went from a 100 under Claeys to a 0 with Fleck.
Click to expand...
Not sure if serious.

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bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I feel like "average margin of defeat in losses" is an absurd way to measure a coach. Under that metric, if you have two coaches, both win three in blowouts, both play three close games, and both lose three blowouts, then the coach who wins the three close games will look worse than the one who loses them, because the three close losses will reduce the margin of defeat. If we are comparing coaches ability to avoid getting embarrassed, look at the total percentage of games (or big ten games) that end on blowout losses, not the percentage of losses that are blowouts.
Click to expand...


Here is average margin of wins and losses.

Fleck -1.47 points per game (Gophers scored 1.47 less than opponent)
Kill -2.10 points per game (Gophers scored 2.10 less than opponent)


Avg score per game:

Coach - Gophers - Opponent
Fleck - 23.47 - 24.95
Kill - 23.34 - 25.45
Kill (first 19) 19.95 - 28.26


Record of Coach
Coach - Win - Loss
Fleck - 8-11
Kill - 29-29

Record through first 19 games
Fleck - 8-11
Kill - 7-12
 

I mistakenly thought we were shooting higher than Kill/Claeys/Mason. There is a chart that shows what success looks like - has anyone seen it? Just win. The recruiting misses in the secondary and at QB have maybe added a jag or two in the near term. Fill the gaps whichever way we can - JUCO, offense to defense transfers. Coach ‘em up, win.
 

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