Sagarin Predictions: Week 9

Gopher07

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Oof.

Another week, another big loss in a potential toss-up game. And that means we're looking at a bleaker outcome than ever. Purdue has rocketed into the top 25 with their thrashing of Ohio State, while none of our other opponents meaningfully improved or declined - but the Gophers dropped quite a bit and that has the rest of the season looking rocky at best. For now, the next four games remain in toss-up territory - but it's not looking great.

For kicks, I took a look at Sagarin's recent ratings - these weigh recent results more heavily than early-season results and might be a better indicator of where the team is after all the injuries and changes we've seen since we kicked off against New Mexico State. According to that measure, we are dogs in all of our remaining games, though two (Indiana +4, Illinois +2) remain in toss-up territory (the others are Purdue +23, Northwestern +11, Wisconsin +24).

Here's hoping that trend reverses by Monday next week.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa L (Predicted +9; Actual +17)
at Ohio State L (Predicted +26.5; Actual +16)
at Nebraska L (Predicted -4.5; Actual +25)
vs Indiana -3
at Illinois -9
vs Purdue +7
vs Northwestern +0.5
at Wisconsin +15.5

Final record: 5-7 (2-7)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Indiana, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin

Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted.

COMING

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
 

So now we’re right back to where we were in the preseason when Sagarin had us losing our first 4 B1G games.
 

This is taking an ugly turn. But what else can you expect after an ugly performance? Little margin for error, and we have difficulty remaining inside the margins.

Thanks for the update, as always.

JTG
 


After out performing the rating this week, but by slim margin, if NW gets blown out by UW we might be able to shift that game to a pick’em or close W. Possibly 6-6?
 





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