KenPom preseason Gophers projection

SelectionSunday

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#60

17-14 overall

9-11 Big Ten

Ranked ahead of only Illinois and Rutgers.
 
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#60

17-14 overall

9-11 Big Ten

Ranked ahead of only Illinois and Rutgers.

A terrible end of the season will bleed into Ken's next season ratings. Analytics are great, but I wonder where Pom factors in players who were on a roster but not playing in one season, but back the next. The Gophers will be functionally playing with an almost completely different team than they ended the season with last year. Pretty hard to number crunch that kind of scenario.
 

If they can stay healthy and catch a few breaks (Carr being eligible), I can see 20+ wins. They never catch breaks though, so this is probably a pretty spot on projection.
 

If we only go 8-3 in nonconference there is definitely reason to worry
 



That prognostication does not excite me. :mad:
 

Gophers ended last season at #117. Gophers were ranked #71 in the 2016-17 preseason rankings.

Big Ten teams:

#13 Michigan State
#18 Purdue
#20 Wisconsin
#24 Michigan
#28 Indiana
#30 Maryland
#32 Penn State
#35 Iowa
#38 Nebraska
#41 Ohio State
#58 Northwestern
#60 Minnesota
#85 Illinois
#149 Rutgers

Significant non-conference opponents:

#46 Washington
#48 Texas A&M
#62 Oklahoma State
#66 Boston College
#73 Utah

Purdue is ranked #18. Conference champion 2016-17 Purdue finished the season ranked #19. I don't know what kenpom rankings normally look like in the preseason, but it just seems kinda high on the Big Ten overall, outside of Rutgers, Illinois, and possibly/hopefully us, though we certainly got a boost from where we finished last year. 10 Big Ten teams in the top 50, 9 in the top 40. I'd think even Purdue and Wisconsin fans would consider a top 3 finish to be on the more optimistic side right now. Nebraska at 9th is lower than most predictions I've seen.
 

Gophers ended last season at #117. Gophers were ranked #71 in the 2016-17 preseason rankings.

Big Ten teams:

#13 Michigan State
#18 Purdue
#20 Wisconsin
#24 Michigan
#28 Indiana
#30 Maryland
#32 Penn State
#35 Iowa
#38 Nebraska
#41 Ohio State
#58 Northwestern
#60 Minnesota
#85 Illinois
#149 Rutgers

Significant non-conference opponents:

#46 Washington
#48 Texas A&M
#62 Oklahoma State
#66 Boston College
#73 Utah

Purdue is ranked #18. Conference champion 2016-17 Purdue finished the season ranked #19. I don't know what kenpom rankings normally look like in the preseason, but it just seems kinda high on the Big Ten overall, outside of Rutgers, Illinois, and possibly/hopefully us, though we certainly got a boost from where we finished last year. 10 Big Ten teams in the top 50, 9 in the top 40. I'd think even Purdue and Wisconsin fans would consider a top 3 finish to be on the more optimistic side right now. Nebraska at 9th is lower than most predictions I've seen.

Not sure why we are #60 while Iowa is #35. What did Iowa do to deserve such a boost in expectations? Northwestern lost a fair amount as well.
 

That is why Pom is smart enough to not use his ratings to try to beat the spread
 



That is why Pom is smart enough to not use his ratings to try to beat the spread

Yet his ratings (or similar metrics) essentially set the spread and therefore go 50/50 if using them to bet.

You’re right that knowing the other factors is what beats the spreads.

I’d say that some bad stuff from last year is bleeding into those projections.
 




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