Gophers Path to NCAA Tournament Bid? Schedule says 21 wins should do it

Sloppy play/turnovers and generally undisciplined play is my biggest concern. Watching the Badgers/Iowa game last night really showed a stark contrast. Those teams play disciplined and handle the ball SO MUCH BETTER than our Gophers it is laughable.

Can that be fixed? The tough part about fixing that is that we really have only two excellent ball handlers. One is not yet eligible (Carr) and one is a wild animal that still needs to be tamed (Washington), although he shows some nice glimpses of what we need (last night). Even so, having only one guy is not a good picture. Can several other guys handle the ball OK? Yes, but they are far from what I would call excellent. If we could at least clean up the lazy, careless, sloppy stuff, we will have a chance. Why in the heck is that still going on? Your thoughts? Coaching? Or maybe we have more guys still thinking they are on the playground during games? I have to admit, I’m sick of Bucky continuing to win, win, win with their “boring” style. They looked very good last night. At this point, I’ll take boring if it means we win like they do.


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Update through Ohio State game

Wins Obtained: 6
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 15

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (0-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (3-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (2-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 2-0 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (6-1 so far)
Big Ten: 12-8 (0-1 so far)
 
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Wow in looking at the "50-50s -- no worse than 4-4" it's hard to see us going 4-2 in this category:

Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Go Gophers!!
 

Wins Obtained: 6
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 15

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (0-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (3-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (2-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 2-0 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (5-1 so far)
Big Ten: 12-8 (0-1 so far)

Should be 6-1 non-conference, not 5-1.
 

Wow in looking at the "50-50s -- no worse than 4-4" it's hard to see us going 4-2 in this category:

Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Go Gophers!!

Yeah, I'm afraid when all is said and done, we are going to really wish we had that BC game back.
 


I happen to think getting to 21 wins is going to be extremely tough for this team. Trying to convert a SF to a PG isn't exactly a recipe for success and the offense is incredibly stagnant for the most part. On top of that, these guys aren't good shooters, which puts more pressure on Coffey and Murphy to shoulder the load. To top things off, they don't play nearly good enough defense to overcome it. The perimeter defense is often soft, guys misread or are late on helpside consistently and other teams get into the paint far too often.

I'd love for the team to reverse these trends, but not much has changed since the start of the year. Just not seeing it at this time. They obviously still have time, but searching for answers heading into conference play doesn't exactly fill me with optimism.
 


Wow in looking at the "50-50s -- no worse than 4-4" it's hard to see us going 4-2 in this category:

Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Go Gophers!!

That means do extra work vs. the Big Boys.

I'd classify the Gophers as "on pace" through 8 games, no more, no less. That changes if they lose at home to Nebraska on Wednesday. A loss would mean they're officially climbing uphill very early in the season.
 

I happen to think getting to 21 wins is going to be extremely tough for this team. Trying to convert a SF to a PG isn't exactly a recipe for success and the offense is incredibly stagnant for the most part. On top of that, these guys aren't good shooters, which puts more pressure on Coffey and Murphy to shoulder the load. To top things off, they don't play nearly good enough defense to overcome it. The perimeter defense is often soft, guys misread or are late on helpside consistently and other teams get into the paint far too often.

I'd love for the team to reverse these trends, but not much has changed since the start of the year. Just not seeing it at this time. They obviously still have time, but searching for answers heading into conference play doesn't exactly fill me with optimism.

The good news is, with the league being even stronger than off-season forecasts, we may need fewer than 21 wins, and there's always a chance to play their way in at the conference tournament. That said, this league is a murderers row, and I'm wondering how we even do that.

Haven't checked KenPom yet, but Sagarin does not paint a pretty picture. At the moment, sitting at 61, virtually tied with Rutgers and significantly ahead of only Illinois, who's at 88. They're going to have to tread water to at least make the NIT and save Pitino's job, and that probably means beating some very good teams at home. They're going to have to transform into a much, much better team to climb up into NCAA consideration. Fortunately that's very possible, as all the new pieces and young players get better at playing together. I feel like they can only get better, but how much is the question.
 



We need Curry to be back healthy. If I can remember back that far, he played with a lot of heart and fire! Something it seems like we sorely need right now.
 

We need Curry to be back healthy. If I can remember back that far, he played with a lot of heart and fire! Something it seems like we sorely need right now.

What we really need is our best player to keep himself on the court
 

Don't look now, but Rutgers just played way better in their road game against a ranked opponent than the Gophers did. At this moment, the Gophs might be the 13th best team in the league by how they've played so far. Lots of work to do.
 

Michigan st,wisconsin,michigan look pretty good.The big ten is tough this year.
 



Don't look now, but Rutgers just played way better in their road game against a ranked opponent than the Gophers did. At this moment, the Gophs might be the 13th best team in the league by how they've played so far. Lots of work to do.

I think we are basing a lot of this on one conference game for the Gophers (2 for Rutgers)

Rutgers games this year, as a whole, have not been impressive. The Scarlet Knights have 1 P5 win (@ Miami FL, who is 5-3 with 0 P5 wins). They played close games against MSU and Wisconsin but lost.

The Gophers have 4 P5 wins (3 @ Neutral sites) and a better record. Losing close doesn't mean you're good. It means you lost a close game.

If you're basing it on how they've played so far, you have to include the entire schedule because conference games only make up 12.5% of the Gophers schedule.
 

I think we are basing a lot of this on one conference game for the Gophers (2 for Rutgers)

Rutgers games this year, as a whole, have not been impressive. The Scarlet Knights have 1 P5 win (@ Miami FL, who is 5-3 with 0 P5 wins). They played close games against MSU and Wisconsin but lost.

The Gophers have 4 P5 wins (3 @ Neutral sites) and a better record. Losing close doesn't mean you're good. It means you lost a close game.

If you're basing it on how they've played so far, you have to include the entire schedule because conference games only make up 12.5% of the Gophers schedule.

As usual, KenPom is a better way to judge this. We’ve beaten 2 similar teams to us (Washington, OK State) and 2 “Rutgers-esque” teams in Utah and A&M.

If we played Rutgers at home we’d be favored by 8. If we played them at Piscataway it would be an even line (pk). That seems to jive with the results we’ve seen as well.

I think Utah may be the worst of that group. They’re considerably worse than Rutgers.
 
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Indiana home and Washington neutral "big boy" games while @Ohio State is a 50/50? I see it as 1-1 in the 50/50 so far. Good breakdown though.

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Updated through win over Nebraska

Wins Obtained: 7
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 14

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (1-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (3-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (2-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 3-0 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (6-1 so far)
Big Ten: 12-8 (1-1 so far)
 

Washington is going get destroyed by Gonzaga

Gonzaga won by 2. Read an article on The Athletic about UW coach, very interesting. Forgot he was coach in waiting at Syracuse.


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Indiana home and Washington neutral "big boy" games while @Ohio State is a 50/50? I see it as 1-1 in the 50/50 so far. Good breakdown though.

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A reminder, this was put together before the season started. Ohio State was generally projected to finish somewhere between 7th to 10th. Clearly, the Buckeyes have proven that ain't likely to happen!
 

A lot of those games aren’t 50-50.

I could see us getting to 21 wins, but it would be more likely 2-6 in the 50/50 category (not 4-4) and 9-1 in the likely favored category (not 6-3).

Going 1-4 the rest of the way in that group would be pretty disappointing.
 

RandBall chimes in:

GOPHERS MEN’S BASKETBALL

Current playoff probability: Last four in (ESPN); No. 65 and out (NCAA Net Rankings).

The good news: Well, let’s start by saying this is a very hard one to predict because so much season is left. The Gophers are 7-2 with some good wins and predictable losses so far. Beating Nebraska on Wednesday was huge. Talent-wise, the Gophers have the pieces to get there. And getting a healthy Eric Curry back as soon as next week would make the Gophers even more formidable.

The bad news: The NCAA is using NET rankings as a way to help determine the tourney field, and right now the Gophers are only No. 65 in that ranking. To feel good about making the tournament, a team probably wants to finish at least in the mid-40s. The Big Ten is deep again, so the conference season is going to be a gauntlet. A tourney berth could come down to a handful of toss-up games.

http://www.startribune.com/the-play...ams-will-make-it-to-the-postseason/502178781/

Go Gophers!!
 


Updated through Arkansas State win

Wins Obtained: 8
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 13

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (1-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (3-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (3-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 4-0 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (7-1 so far)
Big Ten: 12-8 (1-1 so far)
 

Wins Obtained: 8
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 13

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (1-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (3-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (3-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 4-0 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (7-1 so far)
Big Ten: 12-8 (1-1 so far)

If we're a tournament caliber team, we really should go 9-0 in the "Likely Favored, not a Gimme Game" Category. I don't think we'll go 4-4 in the 50/50 category though at this point. I'm think 2-6, which if we go 18-0 in the other 2 categories that gets us to 20 wins. Need to then steal a game in the "Big Boy" category to get to 21 wins. IU at home looks like the best chance.
 

With the improved play of the B1G and our non conference, 9-11 will get us in. I’ll stick with my 12 win prediction. I expected the B1G to be improved and they have. Unfortunately the Indiana schools have been a huge disappointment.
 

With the improved play of the B1G and our non conference, 9-11 will get us in. I’ll stick with my 12 win prediction. I expected the B1G to be improved and they have. Unfortunately the Indiana schools have been a huge disappointment.


Unfortunately, both are loaded with freshman, which could very well mean they are playing much better at the end of the season. We have them both later in the season, which is too bad. I'd like to see the Boilers in early January instead of early March.
 

If we're a tournament caliber team, we really should go 9-0 in the "Likely Favored, not a Gimme Game" Category. I don't think we'll go 4-4 in the 50/50 category though at this point. I'm think 2-6, which if we go 18-0 in the other 2 categories that gets us to 20 wins. Need to then steal a game in the "Big Boy" category to get to 21 wins. IU at home looks like the best chance.

If we are a tournament caliber team, we also should be able to do better than 1-4 the rest of the way on the category you have us at 2-6 in.
 




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