Sagarin Predictions: Week 8

Gopher07

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When is a loss a win?

Well, never. A loss is a loss. But the numbers look pretty stable when you lose by less than expected to a top-2 opponent on the road. And that leads us to where we are now - the Gophers enter their "winnable" stretch of the season being slight favorites or even with each of the next five opponents. Vegas doesn't seem to agree - Nebraska are home favorites this Saturday - but at least per this formula, Minnesota should look to pick up some W's over the next month. Illinois looked positively bad on Saturday and the Gophers are now nearly two-touchdown favorites in Champaign, while Indiana didn't impress against Iowa and has creeped toward "likely W" territory. Win in Lincoln on Saturday and I don't think you'll see the numbers below move too much, barring major upsets - but it sets the team up for a nice run down the stretch, with three of the next four at TCF and the one road game one they can win.

If I were talking overall probabilities and not game-by-game, I think we probably finish with six wins. Illinois plus two of Nebraska, Indiana, Northwestern and Purdue. But given this is a game-by-game prediction, we're still looking a bit rosier. Can't wait for Saturday.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa L (Predicted +9; Actual +17)
at Ohio State L (Predicted +26.5; Actual +16)
at Nebraska -4.5
vs Indiana -6.5
at Illinois -12.5
vs Purdue PICK
vs Northwestern -1.5
at Wisconsin +12

Final record: 7-5 (4-5)/8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin

Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted.

B1G West
Wisconsin: 7-2 Maybe NY6
Iowa: 7-2 Maybe NY6
Northwestern: 5-4
Minnesota: 4.5-4.5 (vs Purdue is a PICK)
Purdue: 3.5-5.5 (@ Minn is a PICK)
Illinois: 1-8
Nebraska: 1-8

B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0 Likely CFP
Michigan: 8-1 Maybe CFP/Likely NY6
Michigan St: 6-3
Penn St: 6-3
Maryland: 4-5
Indiana: 1-8
Rutgers: 0-9

Crossover Games
West: 8-13
East: 13-8

Interesting B1G Notes

Penn State is going to play a big role in determining the fate of the conference, even though they lost on Saturday. With games remaining against Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan, they'll have a chance to reshuffle the pecking order in most of their remaining games.

- Wisconsin notable games remaining: +9 @ PSU, -4.5 @ NW, -6 @ Purdue.
- Iowa notable games remaining: +6.5 @ PSU, -7.5 @ Purdue.
- Ohio St notable games remaining: -6.5 vs Mich, -12 @ MSU.
- Michigan notable games remaining: + 6.5 @ OSU, -3 vs PSU, -8 @ MSU.

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
 
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Thanks for the update. This is the stretch of the season I've been looking forward to since the Maryland game debacle. The next several weeks should give us a good reading on where the program is at.

JTG
 

Thanks Gopher07, really enjoy this! And thanks for getting it out so quickly!
 


Wait ... am I reading that chart right? Our best performance in 2017 was when we had a BYE!?

JTG
 





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