ESPN FPI has us favored next three weeks vs NE, IN, IL; close vs PU, NW


They don't count as wins until you win.

If they go 0-6 during the second half, I'll be curious to see who continues to develop and who starts to hit a wall in their progress.
 

Really want to snare 4-5 of those but would settle for 3 and a bowl. Maybe an axe?

Only getting 2 or less would be a real disappointment against that slate.
 


A different spin on this ongoing bit.

ESPN's numbers so ESPN's spin? Based on team performances through yesterday, it is no surprise that the next five games would either favor Gophs or be considered toss ups.
 


If it is only going to be one-Big-Ten-win season, let it be an upset of the Badgers. That will be a great prelude into next season. :drink:
 

Only getting 2 or less would be a real disappointment against that slate.

Indeed. We already suffered through a terrible season last year. Kill and even the much maligned Brewster went to bowls in their second seasons (yes, I know they had 4 nonconference games then). The coaches need to do whatever is necessary to get at least 6 wins.
 





What do the stats say about winning all of the favored games?

Sometimes I don't think folks get that being favored in a group of games doesn't mean you're likely to win them all.
 

I think win vs. Nebraska and then 3 total conference teams or we lose and then spiral down to a single win vs. Illinois. I think there is a whole lot more riding on this game than a single win/loss - this is setting the tone for this season and, I would argue, next season. If we lose to Nebraska to start 0-4 in the Big Ten, there is not way doubts don't start to creep into the team - and given PJ's shtick is heavy on belief, this could be devastating.
 

What do the stats say about winning all of the favored games?

Sometimes I don't think folks get that being favored in a group of games doesn't mean you're likely to win them all.


True. That's because the average American lacks training in probability reasoning. If you model a binomial distribution of 4 trials with a probability of success on each trial of .60, the probability of winning all four trials is only 13%. Now, athletic contests aren't truly random but probability models are helpful anyway to keep things in perspective.
 

What do the stats say about winning all of the favored games?

Sometimes I don't think folks get that being favored in a group of games doesn't mean you're likely to win them all.

True, but based on these numbers, the two we are not favored in are bigger tossups than the three we are favored in. So the model may not say we should win all three of the ones we are favored in, but if you accept those probabilities for the six games, we should win three of the six.
 



True, but based on these numbers, the two we are not favored in are bigger tossups than the three we are favored in. So the model may not say we should win all three of the ones we are favored in, but if you accept those probabilities for the six games, we should win three of the six.

I was with you until the "we should win three of six".... I'm not sure where the should comes form exactly, but then again I see a lot of "should" on this forum and I think folks just replace "I want at least" with "should" a lot.
 

I was with you until the "we should win three of six".... I'm not sure where the should comes form exactly, but then again I see a lot of "should" on this forum and I think folks just replace "I want at least" with "should" a lot.

Basic definition in this context of should is to indicate what is probable.
 

I was with you until the "we should win three of six".... I'm not sure where the should comes form exactly, but then again I see a lot of "should" on this forum and I think folks just replace "I want at least" with "should" a lot.

What I want had nothing to do with my comment. I even prefaced with "if you accept those probabilities." Based on the numbers that are the premise of this thread, our statistical expected value for number of wins left on the schedule is 3.08.
 

That's because the average American lacks training in probability reasoning. If you model a binomial distribution of 4 trials with a probability of success on each trial of .60, the probability of winning all four trials is only 13%.

Uh, would you repeat the part of the thing all about the ... stuff?

;)

JTG
 

Since the opening line has the Gophers as a the dog at Nebraska, Vegas must not have bought into this bit.
 
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Since the opening line has the Gophers as a the dog at Nebraska, Vegas must not have bought into this bit.

Again, how's the OP a bit? it's ESPN. The line has moved pretty quickly to close to a toss-up as well.
 




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