Sagarin Predictions: Week 7

Gopher07

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Hard to believe we're already at the week 7 predictions, but here we are. And though we took the loss last week, it was expected and didn't really shift the numbers too far.

The most notable changes include Illinois shifting from -8 to -6.5 (or from likely W to toss-up, in other words) and Northwestern flipping to the loss column speaking strictly by the numbers. Given the number of close games, I still think anything from 8-4 to 3-9 is possible, but the most likely outcome is probably in the middle of those - five or six wins. After a seemingly impossible match in Columbus this weekend, the Gophers make-or-break stretch begins, with five toss-up games in a row. Looking forward to another weekend of games and another chance for our team to learn and grow.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa L (Predicted +9; Actual +17)
at Ohio State +26.5
at Nebraska -4
vs Indiana -3.5
at Illinois -6.5
vs Purdue -1.5
vs Northwestern +0.5
at Wisconsin +16

Final record: 7-5 (4-5)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota):
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, @ Illinois, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin

Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted.

B1G West
Wisconsin: 7-2 - Maybe NY6
Iowa: 7-2 - Maybe NY6
Northwestern: 6-3
Minnesota: 4-5
Purdue: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Nebraska: 1-8

B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0 - Likely CFP
Penn St: 8-1 - Maybe CFP/Likely NY6
Michigan: 7-2 - Maybe NY6
Michigan St: 5-4
Maryland: 4-5
Indiana: 2-7
Rutgers: 0-9

Crossover Games
West: 7-14
East: 14-7

Interesting B1G Notes

- Wisconsin has 1 toss up left. Notable games: +5.5 @ Mich, +9.5 @ PSU, -8.5 @ NW, -10.5 @ Purdue.
- Iowa has 0 toss ups. Notable games: +11 @ PSU, -9 @ Purdue.
- Ohio St has 0 toss ups. Notable games: -9.5 vs Mich, -16 @ MSU.
- Rutgers best remaining chances at a win this year are the next 2 weeks when they are +28 @ MD and +22.5 vs NW.

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
 

I'll say it again: I'd gladly take a 4-5 conference record.

The whole season is going to boil down to those five "toss-up" games. Those are the teams we have to beat consistently before worrying how we hang with the big boys.

@Gopher07, as always, thanks for the update.

JTG
 

Favored by 3.5 against Indiana? I'm thinking that those Saragin ratings are putting too much into our early season defensive stats. Indiana has a scary offense. If we don't make some adjustments in the next couple of weeks....that could be another tough game to watch.
 


Favored by 3.5 against Indiana? I'm thinking that those Saragin ratings are putting too much into our early season defensive stats. Indiana has a scary offense. If we don't make some adjustments in the next couple of weeks....that could be another tough game to watch.

Gophs and Ind basically have the same scoring offense rank.
 





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