Fresno 2nd best Big Ten win

fmlizard

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According to ESPN FPI the Gophers almost have the best win by a Big Ten team so far - TCU rates #28 there and Fresno is #29.

Casual observers sleep on that W but the computers should like it more and more as the season goes on.
 

Hard to know with these things but after pasting UCLA, yeah Fresno counts as a good win.

I still feel like we got kinda lucky as Fresno seemed to forget how to call their offense... not to take anything away from our players, I just think it was a factor.
 

Hard to know with these things but after pasting UCLA, yeah Fresno counts as a good win.

I still feel like we got kinda lucky as Fresno seemed to forget how to call their offense... not to take anything away from our players, I just think it was a factor.

Fresno is a good win, but UCLA is garbage.
 

This can't be true because all I've read from outsiders is that Gophers had a cake non-conference schedule.
 



This can't be true because all I've read from outsiders is that Gophers had a cake non-conference schedule.

They did. The reason it is rated so high is because the BIG didn’t win much in non-con play.


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Wierd since UCLA was 11th in the nation in the 247 Composite Talent Rankings, and they’ve been pulling in top 20 classes.

With a brand new coach who runs a totally different offense. And again, using talent/recruiting rankings has ~.75 correlation, there are outliers. Something you gloss over every time.
 




With a brand new coach who runs a totally different offense. And again, using talent/recruiting rankings has ~.75 correlation, there are outliers. Something you gloss over every time.

I’m the one that glosses over? Hmmm
 

When have I ever said that?

Re Streveler you called FCS the JV so by extension teams made up of low threes and twos must be at best the b squad. Can’t be very good. Considering the remainder of FSUs schedule will be little sisters of the poor it really doesn’t help our image that much. Enough stereotypes?
 




So you guys can’t even admit that the Fresno game was a good win? Or if you do, it was because we got lucky!
I guess you might not have realized that we had to throw out our game plan right after Rodney got hurt a few minutes into the game. We had to rely on a very raw freshman RB. Lighten up and enjoy the season, it is going to be a fun one...


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So you guys can’t even admit that the Fresno game was a good win? Or if you do, it was because we got lucky!
I guess you might not have realized that we had to throw out our game plan right after Rodney got hurt a few minutes into the game. We had to rely on a very raw freshman RB. Lighten up and enjoy the season, it is going to be a fun one...


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It can be a bit of both.
 


They did. The reason it is rated so high is because the BIG didn’t win much in non-con play.


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I mean, the only games on paper that look like good teams are Texas (MD W), ND (MI L), TCU (OSU W). The rest I'd put fully in the level of Fresno St and would include Mizzou (Pur L), ?Duke (NW L), ?Colorado (Neb L), Iowa State (Iowa W), VA (Indy W), Pitt (PSU W), ASU (Mi St L), ?BYU (WI L), ?South Florida (Ill L). So while the B10 didn't win much, there's also just not much for solid games scheduled by the B10 that have been played to this point. Purdue-BC will be another, and the last, chance.
 


Purdue-BC will be another, and the last, chance.

Northwestern does play Notre Dame in early November, but those are the last couple chances for strong OOC wins prior to bowl season.
 

Take a stats class.

:rolleyes:


In aggregate, teams built of higher rated recruits do better. However, there are numerous examples of teams under and over performing their talent levels. Some people want to gloss over this fact, even when it’s pointed out that PJ’s team of majority three stars is going to have to overperform to compete for the Big Ten. Even in 2019 and 2020 our roster talent levels will very likely lag the top teams by a significant margin.
 


:rolleyes:


In aggregate, teams built of higher rated recruits do better. However, there are numerous examples of teams under and over performing their talent levels. Some people want to gloss over this fact, even when it’s pointed out that PJ’s team of majority three stars is going to have to overperform to compete for the Big Ten. Even in 2019 and 2020 our roster talent levels will very likely lag the top teams by a significant margin.

The talent levels PJ is bringing in are on par with anyone in the B1G West. He also brings in players that buy into RTB mantra. Based on what we all saw PJ do at Wedtern Michigan and what already seems to be significant steps forward here, my belief is that players that are willing to challenge their best, row WITH their teammates, and hold each other accountable will outplay their collective initial talent levels. Now taking a step or two down the line, let’s say PJ wins the B1G West or even the B1G... PJ has already shown ability to put players in the NFL and become 1st round picks... Seems very plausible that he could get to a point he’s able to bring top-10 classes to Minnesota.

Will it happen? I don’t know but there is a lot of reason for optimism.
 

It was a good win and Fresno State will end-up having a good year.

It was a great day at TCF also.
 

The talent levels PJ is bringing in are on par with anyone in the B1G West. He also brings in players that buy into RTB mantra. Based on what we all saw PJ do at Wedtern Michigan and what already seems to be significant steps forward here, my belief is that players that are willing to challenge their best, row WITH their teammates, and hold each other accountable will outplay their collective initial talent levels. Now taking a step or two down the line, let’s say PJ wins the B1G West or even the B1G... PJ has already shown ability to put players in the NFL and become 1st round picks... Seems very plausible that he could get to a point he’s able to bring top-10 classes to Minnesota.

Will it happen? I don’t know but there is a lot of reason for optimism.

We aren’t bringing in top 25 classes like Nebraska. Even Wisconsin has a nice class this year. The top East teams are significantly better from a recruiting perspective. Purdue has stepped it up. Iowa is up and down but has a track record of overperforming.

Can’t have it both ways. Personally I don’t get too wrapped up in the recruiting rankings but it’s obviously nice what PJ has done with recruiting but the teams we’re about to face have similar to better players. We will have to outperform our talent level to compete for Big Ten titles.
 

The talent levels PJ is bringing in are on par with anyone in the B1G West.

They aren't. In 2017 (not holding it against him, just pointing it out) we finished 6th out of 7 Big Ten West teams in the 247 composite. In 2018 (Fleck's first full class), we finished 2nd in the West, but 3rd in average recruit ranking - we placed ahead of wisconsin in the overall rankings because we had 25 recruits to their 20. In 2019, again we are rated highly in September because Fleck gets a lot of early commits. And even with this inflation, we're still currently 3rd in the Big Ten West, behind Nebraska and Purdue. We're barely ahead of wisconsin at the moment, and we have 24 commits to their 13. Right now, our average recruit rating is 13th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers. Unless we get some massive ratings revisions upward, we will again finish 5th or 6th in the Big Ten West like we did in 2017.

These 2017-2019 classes will be the backbone of the team in 2020 and 2021, Fleck's 4th/5th years when we should be rolling and finding out whether he can win big here. This is not to say that he can't win big here with this level of recruiting, because he certainly can - it's just that the upgraded talent level (at least on paper) is a myth.
 
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They aren't. In 2017 (not holding it against him, just pointing it out) we finished 6th out of 7 Big Ten West teams in the 247 composite. In 2018 (Fleck's first full class), we finished 2nd in the West, but 3rd in average recruit ranking - we placed ahead of wisconsin in the overall rankings because we had 25 recruits to their 20. In 2019, again we are rated highly in September because Fleck gets a lot of early commits. And even with this inflation, we're still currently 3rd in the Big Ten West, behind Nebraska and Purdue. We're barely ahead of wisconsin at the moment, and we have 24 commits to their 13. Right now, our average recruit rating is 13th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers. Unless we get some massive ratings revisions upward, we will again finish 5th or 6th in the Big Ten West like we did in 2017.

These 2017-2019 classes will be the backbone of the team in 2020 and 2021, Fleck's 4th/5th years when we should be rolling and finding out whether he can win big here. This is not to say that he can't win big here with this level of recruiting, because he certainly can - it's just that the upgraded talent level (at least on paper) is a myth.

Very well stated. I have been a little surprised that our average recruit ranking has dropped this year as compared to 2018. Maybe the staff wanted to wrap it up early and hurried a bit?
 

They aren't. In 2017 (not holding it against him, just pointing it out) we finished 6th out of 7 Big Ten West teams in the 247 composite. In 2018 (Fleck's first full class), we finished 2nd in the West, but 3rd in average recruit ranking - we placed ahead of wisconsin in the overall rankings because we had 25 recruits to their 20. In 2019, again we are rated highly in September because Fleck gets a lot of early commits. And even with this inflation, we're still currently 3rd in the Big Ten West, behind Nebraska and Purdue. We're barely ahead of wisconsin at the moment, and we have 24 commits to their 13. Right now, our average recruit rating is 13th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers. Unless we get some massive ratings revisions upward, we will again finish 5th or 6th in the Big Ten West like we did in 2017.

These 2017-2019 classes will be the backbone of the team in 2020 and 2021, Fleck's 4th/5th years when we should be rolling and finding out whether he can win big here. This is not to say that he can't win big here with this level of recruiting, because he certainly can - it's just that the upgraded talent level (at least on paper) is a myth.

Here's the thing though ... how many players in the average class end up contributing significantly on a team over multiple seasons?

So just saying that you take the average ranking over 25 players when they come in, isn't fair. It should just be the 8-10 players per class that end up being long term, significant contributors. THOSE player rankings are what will matter, on the field.
 

Very well stated. I have been a little surprised that our average recruit ranking has dropped this year as compared to 2018. Maybe the staff wanted to wrap it up early and hurried a bit?

Could also be that they don't only consider how 3rd parties rate/rank the recruits. Perhaps they have their own internal system of ranking/rating, or they're looking at other things to fill spots of need, looking at potential, etc.
 

Here's the thing though ... how many players in the average class end up contributing significantly on a team over multiple seasons?

So just saying that you take the average ranking over 25 players when they come in, isn't fair. It should just be the 8-10 players per class that end up being long term, significant contributors. THOSE player rankings are what will matter, on the field.

Personally I look at the little used W/L metric to determine recruiting success. Our starting QB, top WR, starting RBs, starting safeties and LBs to name just a few were all lightly recruited. Winfield, Cashman, Annexstad, Smith, Johnson...

We can succeed with a core of talented players and some overachievers. Plenty of examples. We need a good offensive line and some D line standouts. Do we have that currently? Going to find out the next few months.
 

They aren't. In 2017 (not holding it against him, just pointing it out) we finished 6th out of 7 Big Ten West teams in the 247 composite. In 2018 (Fleck's first full class), we finished 2nd in the West, but 3rd in average recruit ranking - we placed ahead of wisconsin in the overall rankings because we had 25 recruits to their 20. In 2019, again we are rated highly in September because Fleck gets a lot of early commits. And even with this inflation, we're still currently 3rd in the Big Ten West, behind Nebraska and Purdue. We're barely ahead of wisconsin at the moment, and we have 24 commits to their 13. Right now, our average recruit rating is 13th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers. Unless we get some massive ratings revisions upward, we will again finish 5th or 6th in the Big Ten West like we did in 2017.

These 2017-2019 classes will be the backbone of the team in 2020 and 2021, Fleck's 4th/5th years when we should be rolling and finding out whether he can win big here. This is not to say that he can't win big here with this level of recruiting, because he certainly can - it's just that the upgraded talent level (at least on paper) is a myth.

Very well stated. I have been a little surprised that our average recruit ranking has dropped this year as compared to 2018. Maybe the staff wanted to wrap it up early and hurried a bit?

So obviously while not the whole story, if you look at our rankings and take out the bottom 4 (2 greyshirt players who will get re-evaluated next year as Logan Richter did, a kicker, and a LS), the class rank increases to 85.6, which while still down, is closer to the previous as well as ahead of Indiana and tied w/ NW. Additionally, who knows who the last 2 guys will be for the spots PJ says are available, but the class last year looks a hell of a lot better with Faalele and Dunlop in it versus prior and they were last second additions that took the class from an 85.8 to 86.2. So it'll be interesting to see how this class finished ranked. But I agree it seems we are low on star power this class.
 




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