Sagarin Predictions: Week 4

Gopher07

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A new high-water mark for the season after the Gophers take care of business and several of our conference opponents didn't. Though we have four "toss-up" games on the schedule, the formula has us favored in all four, starting this Saturday in College Park. A win there and Iowa might creep into toss-up territory by the time we play them. A dominating win on the road and I don't think it's out of the question to start feeling like 7 wins is the floor for this team. But lots still to come and even though the Terps looked positively bad on Saturday, it's our closest game in terms of predicted spread the rest of the way and should tell us a lot about what to expect in the conference season.

One interesting note, Indiana is looking tougher and tougher by the week and keeps creeping up - now out of "likely W" to "toss up." Though I expect they'll crash back to earth from a win/loss perspective before we play them (they get MSU, OSU, Iowa, and PSU before then) they could be a sneaky-good team that may give us fits after our tough two-game road trip.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland -1.5
vs Iowa +7
at Ohio State +26
at Nebraska -2.5
vs Indiana -5.5
at Illinois -10
vs Purdue -11
vs Northwestern -6.5
at Wisconsin +12.5

Final record: 9-3 (6-3)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Maryland, @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin

NEW FEATURE!
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I'll be including these in my posts going forward.

B1G West
Iowa: 8-1
Minnesota: 6-3
Wisconsin: 6-3
Northwestern: 4-5
Nebraska: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Purdue: 1-8

B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0
Penn St: 8-1
Michigan: 7-2
Michigan St: 6-3
Indiana: 3-6
Maryland: 2-7
Rutgers: 0-9

Crossover Games
West: 7-14
East: 14-7

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
 
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Really surprising to see us beat the scoring predictions... I feel like we've been pretty bad about that in recent years.

Anyway we passed the Fresno State test .... Maryland test next, I'll be nervous as usual. 1.5 seems like pretty much a toss up.
 

A win vs Maryland would have me VERY excited for the Iowa game.
 




I went back to last year at this (Thank you Gopher07!) and copied the comparison. Outside of Northwestern, the predictions were fairly spot-on in the categories likely, tossup, loss. Michigan State, Purdue, and Iowa were lost opportunities that took us to 5 wins instead of 8.

Week 4 2017

Final record: 8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin
 
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Fresno state (31) is currently ranked higher than the Gophers (40) in Sagarin Ratings. So is NDSU (33).
 

If we lose to Maryland, this all changes.
 



Anyone else find it odd that Nebraska is a tossup game? I'm guessing if MN takes care of business at MD and the Huskers lose at the Big House next week, that could change drastically.

Btw, this maroon kool-aid is delicious.
 

Anyone else find it odd that Nebraska is a tossup game? I'm guessing if MN takes care of business at MD and the Huskers lose at the Big House next week, that could change drastically.

Btw, this maroon kool-aid is delicious.

It's on the road so the model gives greater advantage to Nebraska.
We need more games against higher quality teams (No Top 30 at the moment) to justify a greater spread.
 


3-0 against the spread is a great way to start the season. Kenneth Massey's prediction model has the Gopher's -3.5 for the Maryland game, and his predictions have tracked well with the actual results.
 






Thanks again, these threads are awesome!


More data now for the algo's, but still not much data. Also confusing data for Maryland: beat Texas, who just beat USC and will be ranked again, but bad loss to Temple who will likely remain unranked.

I have a feeling Maryland is going to be pissed off. And it's the Gophs first road trip. Flight, hotel in a different state, different stadium, etc. This is gonna be a tough game. And that's assuming we get ZA reasonably healthy for the game.
 

Thanks Gopher07. I love this service you provide! [emoji16]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 






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