Sagarin Predictions: Week 3

Gopher07

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We outperformed again! Which means ... the model likes our chances to go bowling for the first time in 2018.

Before we get too crazy, we still have a number of tough matchups. Our road games - sans Illinois - are looking particularly difficult, and the numbers like us in a dogfight versus Northwestern at TCF in November. But, we're now slight favorites over the Wildcats (first time this year) and Purdue has moved from toss up to likely W per my categorization. Nebraska has crept close to the PICK line, but Maryland extended their predicted margin of victory ever so slightly (both still toss ups).

Iowa remains in the likely L column (and probably will stay there until and unless we win our next two, in which case it might garner toss up status).

I hate to look ahead too much, but that game in College Park is our next chance to really turn some heads and shift the model more in our favor. Do that, and you'll probably start to hear some hype around the team and very positive feelings before a prove-it homecoming game. For now, take care of Miami and keep moving (or rowing) forward.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22
at Maryland +4
vs Iowa +8.5
at Ohio State +28
at Nebraska +2
vs Indiana -7.5
at Illinois -9.5
vs Purdue -9
vs Northwestern -1.5
at Wisconsin +16.5

Final record: 7-5 (4-5)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Miami (Ohio), vs Indiana, @ Illinois, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Maryland, @ Nebraska, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
 


Love the methodology! Would simply suggest that -- especially if it's easy to do (I don't know if it is) -- you use an aggregate of all the algorithmic predictors, not just one.
 

















vs Miami (Ohio) W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)

We did 1 point better than expected! Paired with Maryland's loss, I'm feeling hopeful for this week's rankings!
 

Big game! If they can beat Maryland and then have the bye before hosting Iowa, lookout!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


This hypothetical. What happens if the Gophers did beat Maryland and Iowa and go 5-0?
 


This hypothetical. What happens if the Gophers did beat Maryland and Iowa and go 5-0?

I see it as a ladder...

A Maryland Win establishes we are the team we think we are today.

Iowa will most likely be the Gophers first opportunity against a Top 30 team (Fresno is right on the edge) based on the advanced stats. 5-0 and that's a step up. Top 25 discussions and 2nd tier Big Ten rumblings. Iowa is the break out game. As of today.
 

Wonder how many of those 7 Big Ten losses Sagarin predicted correctly?
 

I see it as a ladder...

A Maryland Win establishes we are the team we think we are today.

Iowa will most likely be the Gophers first opportunity against a Top 30 team (Fresno is right on the edge) based on the advanced stats. 5-0 and that's a step up. Top 25 discussions and 2nd tier Big Ten rumblings. Iowa is the break out game. As of today.

Gophs played Iowa pretty tough tough and even last year in Iowa. That game was winnable. Gophs have improved...more than Iowa IMHO...and the game is here...on Homecoming.
 





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