Sagarin Predictions: Week 2

Gopher07

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Outperforming the model in the early season has some big effects in our predictions. The Gophers outperformed the predicted outcome by quite a bit, and it raised their prospects almost across the board.

The only issue is that our next opponent did the same against Idaho, and moved that game into a toss-up in the opponents' favor, so the predicted outcome of the season remains 5-7. But, we now have two conference games in the "should win" space (Indiana and Illinois) while more than half of our other conference games are looking tight (including Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland).

If things come together there's a chance to raise a lot of eyebrows - but it starts Saturday in, dare I say, a monumental game for momentum and expectations. It shapes up to be our closest game per the model, and with a poor Miami team on the schedule after, would give us a chance to roll into College Park as slight favorites before the rubber hits the road with the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes.

Still a lot of movement to come in the next few weeks as things settle in. SO glad college football is back!

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State +0.5
vs Miami (Ohio) -18.5
at Maryland +3
vs Iowa +10
at Ohio State +27.5
at Nebraska +3.5
vs Indiana -7.5
at Illinois -12
vs Purdue -6
vs Northwestern +2.5
at Wisconsin +18.5

Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Miami (Ohio), vs Indiana, @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Fresno State, @ Maryland, @ Nebraska, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin

Previous weeks:

Preseason
 

I dont know if I see Iowa as +10....
 

I dont know if I see Iowa as +10....

Models like Iowa. Sagarin pegs them as a top-10 team, and Massey pegs them at #15, though S&P+ has them sitting at #31. We'll find out a LOT about them before we play each other though, as they have ISU and Wisconsin.
 

I dont know if I see Iowa as +10....

Agreed. Fleck said this team is going to surprise people and it's my belief that Saturday will be one of those performances.
 

This Fresno game is similar to what we can expect for a Bowl game.

This is a big game.
 


This Fresno game is similar to what we can expect for a Bowl game.

This is a big game.

Agreed. I have it as a loss (despite my score prediction) but that's because I think we'll have a few lumps with our freshman QB.
 

Agreed. Fleck said this team is going to surprise people and it's my belief that Saturday will be one of those performances.


I think we get the pig this year.
 





Collin Wilson at the Vegas-based The Action Network has the Gophers rated at 71.5...

Northwestern also at 71.5...

The Action Network system calls them even on a neutral field...their data give Gophers a 2.21 homefield edge; so Gophs favored here.

Gophs favored in these home games as well: Purdue at 71, FSU at 70.5, Indiana at 67.5, Miami at 66.

Gophs favored in these road games: Nebraska at 69 (Lincoln venue worth 1.48), Maryland at 66.5 (College Park worth 1.74), Illinois at 57.

Ohio State at 95.5 and Badger at 86 seem like tough assignments.

They have Iowa at 74.5. With Gophs at 71.5 and TCF worth 2.21, Iowa with .79 point edge.

9-3, 10-2 is very doable this year.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2018-college-football-betting-power-ratings-vegas-numbers-odds
 

Outperforming the model in the early season has some big effects in our predictions. The Gophers outperformed the predicted outcome by quite a bit, and it raised their prospects almost across the board.

The only issue is that our next opponent did the same against Idaho, and moved that game into a toss-up in the opponents' favor, so the predicted outcome of the season remains 5-7. But, we now have two conference games in the "should win" space (Indiana and Illinois) while more than half of our other conference games are looking tight (including Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland).

If things come together there's a chance to raise a lot of eyebrows - but it starts Saturday in, dare I say, a monumental game for momentum and expectations. It shapes up to be our closest game per the model, and with a poor Miami team on the schedule after, would give us a chance to roll into College Park as slight favorites before the rubber hits the road with the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes.

Still a lot of movement to come in the next few weeks as things settle in. SO glad college football is back!

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State +0.5
vs Miami (Ohio) -18.5
at Maryland +3
vs Iowa +10
at Ohio State +27.5
at Nebraska +3.5
vs Indiana -7.5
at Illinois -12
vs Purdue -6
vs Northwestern +2.5
at Wisconsin +18.5

Final record: 5-7 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Miami (Ohio), vs Indiana, @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Fresno State, @ Maryland, @ Nebraska, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin

Previous weeks:

Preseason

Gopher07, I love it when you post this! I look forward to seeing it! Thank you


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Collin Wilson at the Vegas-based The Action Network has the Gophers rated at 71.5...

Northwestern also at 71.5...

The Action Network system calls them even on a neutral field...their data give Gophers a 2.21 homefield edge; so Gophs favored here.

Gophs favored in these home games as well: Purdue at 71, FSU at 70.5, Indiana at 67.5, Miami at 66.

Gophs favored in these road games: Nebraska at 69 (Lincoln venue worth 1.48), Maryland at 66.5 (College Park worth 1.74), Illinois at 57.

Ohio State at 95.5 and Badger at 86 seem like tough assignments.

They have Iowa at 74.5. With Gophs at 71.5 and TCF worth 2.21, Iowa with .79 point edge.

9-3, 10-2 is very doable this year.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2018-college-football-betting-power-ratings-vegas-numbers-odds

Woah. Nucular temperature chili.
 

Thanks for posting. Always enjoy this!

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 



W (predicted +0.5; actual -7)

Can't wait to see how the week 3 predictions change after this week. Key win for us, and some bad losses for our opponents.
 




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