Gophers open up as 2 point favorites vs Fresno St

Donate To GopherHole
Some Day...Maybe

Some Day...Maybe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2010
Messages
2,947
Reaction score
1,451
Points
113
Bring on the Bulldogs! Should be a better test. Go Gophers!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

That’s the oddsmakers not knowing who will win.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Up 2 or down 2. Should be a good game. Looking forward to it.
 

Nervous......

giphy.gif
 





I am surprised that they did not give Fresno State a slight edge coming off a 10-win season with their DBs returning virtually intact addition to their senior QB and top two WRs.
 

Gophers_4life said:
I would say, that's the oddsmakers trying to get people to bet on the game!
Click to expand...

That is the point of every spread. But if the gophers were favored by 10, then clearly the oddsmakers believe the gophers will win. When we are only 2 point favorites, it is essentially a toss up. We are getting the 2 points because the game is at Minneapolis.
 
Last edited:



2 points sounds about right. This is a game we should win at home, but Fresno is tough enough that there is not a lot of margin for error.
 

hungan1 said:
I am surprised that they did not give Fresno State a slight edge coming off a 10-win season with their DBs returning virtually intact addition to their senior QB and top two WRs.
Click to expand...

Regarding FSU's 10 win season last year, only 4 of the 10 wins were to teams with winning records. 5 of the 10 wins were with teams who won 3 or fewer games. 4 losses were to #1 Alabama, #6 Washington, UNLV, and #25 Boise St.in the Conference Championship game. Lone upset win was to #25 Boise St. Lone upset loss was to UNLV. Overall a 9 win season in a very weak Mountain West Conference.
 
Last edited:

Tully55 said:
Regarding FSU's 10 win season last year, only 4 of the 10 wins were to teams with winning records. 5 of the 10 wins were with teams who won 3 or fewer games. 4 losses were to #1 Alabama, #6 Washington, UNLV, and #25 Boise St.in the Conference Championship game. Lone upset win was to #25 Boise St. Lone upset loss was to UNLV. Overall a 9 win season in a very weak Mountain West Conference.
Click to expand...
Another point of perspective, Idaho is an FCS team that went 4-8 last year yet moved the ball for over 300 yards, despite constantly shooting themselves in the foot.
 

Tully55 said:
Regarding FSU's 10 win season last year, only 4 of the 10 wins were to teams with winning records. 5 of the 10 wins were with teams who won 3 or fewer games. 4 losses were to #1 Alabama, #6 Washington, UNLV, and #25 Boise St.in the Conference Championship game. Lone upset win was to #25 Boise St. Lone upset loss was to UNLV. Overall a 9 win season in a very weak Mountain West Conference.
Click to expand...

They lost badly to Alabama and Washington. After that, they went 7-1 regular season plus a home win over BYU. The upset loss at home was a week after beat San Diego St in the road, who won the conf a year before and also finished last year with 10 wins, and a week before the BYU game. They clearly overlooked UNLV, a mistake. After BYU, they went to Hawaii, a tough road setting, and win. Then they went to Wyoming, another tough road setting and against Josh Allen, and won. And lastly played Boise at home and won. Then had to turn right around and rematch Boise at Boise. Rematches favor the loser if the first match, and it was on the blue turf, still only loss 14-17. Beat a solid Houston program in a bowl.

Make zero mistake: this will be a damn tough match. Their fans are expecting this game to be a precious G5 over P5 win. They might even be underestimating us.
 



nsmike said:
Another point of perspective, Idaho is an FCS team that went 4-8 last year yet moved the ball for over 300 yards, despite constantly shooting themselves in the foot.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Pointed that out in the week 1 thread.
 

I trust that this program understands that there is little wiggle room for "underestimation" at this point in time, particularly when the opponent won in a blowout the previous week.

I'm not concerned about the mentality going into Sat. I know they'll be prepared for a "dog" fight.
 

They put up nearly 80 points next week. Will be a tough test for the defense. Offense and special teams need to do everything possible to help those guys out. The longer our offense stays on the field, the better I'm going to feel about this game.
 

Looks like we have had some line movement since opening. Gophers moved to -2.5 Favorites around the afternoon of 9/2 but as of this morning have dropped to consensus -1.5 favorites. Here is current breakdown across online & some Vegas books:

10:00a CST 9/7

Bovada MIN-1.5
Bet365 MIN-1.5
BetOnline MIN-1.5
Pinnacle MIN-1.5
5Dimes MIN-1.5
Heritage MIN-2
WILLHILL MIN-2.5

Majority of the O/U Totals are 48 points


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

If I bet on Gopher games, I'd probably hammer the over.
 


AtTheLibrary said:
Looks like we have had some line movement since opening. Gophers moved to -2.5 Favorites around the afternoon of 9/2 but as of this morning have dropped to consensus -1.5 favorites. Here is current breakdown across online & some Vegas books:

10:00a CST 9/7

Bovada MIN-1.5
Bet365 MIN-1.5
BetOnline MIN-1.5
Pinnacle MIN-1.5
5Dimes MIN-1.5
Heritage MIN-2
WILLHILL MIN-2.5

Majority of the O/U Totals are 48 points
Click to expand...

The disparity between the betting lines and advanced metrics is interesting. Sagarin has it as essentially a pick 'em, but Connelly, OddsShark, and others think that Fresno St. is going to win fairly easily. That is a definite possibility, but I'm surprised not to see it reflected more in the betting lines.

I also think that the over is easy money on this game, but who knows. I think both teams scoring at least 24 points each is almost guaranteed.
 

dpodoll68 said:
The disparity between the betting lines and advanced metrics is interesting. Sagarin has it as essentially a pick 'em, but Connelly, OddsShark, and others think that Fresno St. is going to win fairly easily. That is a definite possibility, but I'm surprised not to see it reflected more in the betting lines.
Click to expand...

Betting lines aren't motivated by actually predicting the winner ... rather they are motivated by getting the most people to place bets, in a balanced manner!
 

Gophers_4life said:
Betting lines aren't motivated by actually predicting the winner ... rather they are motivated by getting the most people to place bets, in a balanced manner!
Click to expand...

I know how the lines are established, which is why I said what I did. If people believe the advanced metrics and think that Fresno St. is going to win easily, there would be a lot of money coming in on Fresno St. and pushing the line more in their favor, certainly more than the 1 point it's moved so far. That this hasn't happened makes me think that people don't believe the advanced metrics to be accurate for this particular game.
 

I’m just thinking the game will be decided on the field. Just a hunch.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Betting lines aren't motivated by actually predicting the winner ... rather they are motivated by getting the most people to place bets, in a balanced manner!
Click to expand...

Oddshark had NMSU winning outright last week. Gophs win tomorrow by 10 or more.
 

dpodoll68 said:
I know how the lines are established, which is why I said what I did. If people believe the advanced metrics and think that Fresno St. is going to win easily, there would be a lot of money coming in on Fresno St. and pushing the line more in their favor, certainly more than the 1 point it's moved so far. That this hasn't happened makes me think that people don't believe the advanced metrics to be accurate for this particular game.
Click to expand...

Thank you for clarifying/re-explaining what you already said. Now I get it

For me personally, it doesn’t matter how complex or ingenious a particular algorithm is ... with such little data to go on, it’s just too early to have a reliable predictor.
 

This is a game we win by 10 or more. This is not a Big Ten team. Should be an entertaining game. Right team at the right time for a young Gophers group. We take another step forward on Saturday.
 

dpodoll68 said:
The disparity between the betting lines and advanced metrics is interesting. Sagarin has it as essentially a pick 'em, but Connelly, OddsShark, and others think that Fresno St. is going to win fairly easily. That is a definite possibility, but I'm surprised not to see it reflected more in the betting lines.

I also think that the over is easy money on this game, but who knows. I think both teams scoring at least 24 points each is almost guaranteed.
Click to expand...

Is Connelly predicting a 4 point FSU win, winning "fairly easily"?
 

As a casual sports better I'll give my take here:

This is a trap game for betters.

One of these teams in going to win comfortably and that team is going to be whoever has less money on them.

I emotionally hedged and put money on Fresno to win outright.
 

fraternity2017 said:
As a casual sports better I'll give my take here:

This is a trap game for betters.

One of these teams in going to win comfortably and that team is going to be whoever has less money on them.

I emotionally hedged and put money on Fresno to win outright.
Click to expand...

One of the sites I check shows the bets on each side. Right now 52% of the bets are on the gophers and 53% on the over. Obviously the bets total isn’t an exact representation of the money on the game and sharks can move lines but it gives some outlooks.

The fact the lines keep shifting toward FSU and a PK shows money is pouring in against Minnesota.
 
Last edited:

AtTheLibrary said:
One of the sites I check shows the bets on each side. Right now 52% of the bets are on the gophers and 53% on the over. Obviously the bets total isn’t an exact representation of the money on the game and sharks can move lines but it gives some outlooks.

The fact the lines keep shifting toward FSU and a PK shows money is pouring in against Minnesota.
Click to expand...

That might be a bit of an exaggeration...:cool:


http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom