Media Prediction Thread: New Mexico State at Minnesota

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BleedGopher

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Athlon is first out of the gate:

The second year of P.J. Fleck’s tenure in Minneapolis begins on Thursday night. The Golden Gophers just missed out on a bowl last year, but there’s optimism based on what Fleck was able to do from Year 1 to Year 2 in his previous tenure at Western Michigan. Solving the quarterback position was one of the top goals for Fleck this offseason. He’s handing the keys of the Minnesota attack to true freshman (and walk-on) Zack Annexstad. New Mexico State was dominated by Wyoming in its season opener, managing just seven points and 135 total yards. Coach Doug Martin’s team has a short turnaround fMinnesota and plenty of issues to address.

Prediction: Minnesota

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/ranking-all-86-games-week-1-2018-college-football-season

Go Gophers!!
 

CFN:

What’s Going To Happen
The New Mexico State offense will be far better than it showed against Wyoming, but there still won’t be any sort of a running attack to worry about.

The Gophers will run for over 300 yards, Annexstad will be efficient and effective, and they’ll have a nice and easy start to the season, even if it takes about a quarter to get it all going.

Fearless Prediction & Line
Minnesota 37, New Mexico State 13

https://collegefootballnews.com/201...mexico-state-fearless-prediction-game-preview
 

Athlon chimes in again with a more specific prediction:

Final Analysis

New Mexico State is not a very good football team — it's that simple. They were dominated on both side of the ball by an good-but-not great Group of 5 squad one week ago. P.J. Fleck understands that, and he'll make sure to set the tone early with a dominant rushing performance early on, featuring a heavy dose of running back Rodney Smith. Once the Gophers have a comfortable lead, look for Fleck to keep his foot on the gas and see what his young quarterback can do. The Aggies don't have anyone in the secondary who can match up with Minnesota receiver Tyler Johnson alone. That will mean either a big night for Johnson or plenty of other open options downfield for Zack Annexstad. It's difficult to see this game being much closer than New Mexico State's season opener last week.

Prediction: Minnesota 48, New Mexico State 6

https://athlonsports.com/college-fo...innesota-golden-gophers-prediction-picks-2018

Go Gophers!!
 

Athlon Sports: NMSU Aggies vs. MN Golden Gophers Prediction and Preview

Athlon Sports Prediction: Minnesota 48, New Mexico State 6

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/new-mexico-state-aggies-vs-minnesota-golden-gophers-prediction-picks-2018

New Mexico State at Minnesota
Kickoff: Thursday, Aug. 30 at 7 p.m. ET
TV Channel: BTN
Spread: Minnesota -21


Three Things to Watch

1. How fast can Minnesota quarterback Zack Annexstad grow up?
It's not often that a true freshman starts a game at quarterback in the Big Ten. It's even more rare to see a true freshman who is also a walk-on get the nod. That's exactly what will have on Thursday when Annexstad jogs onto the field and into the Minnesota huddle. Fortunately, he'll be greeted by an athletically superior offensive line that should allow him to remain upright and deliver the ball downfield to a host of experienced skill players regularly. If he can come out and lead a couple of long drives early, his confidence will soar, the Gophers will likely take a lead they won't relinquish and Fleck can worry about the next hurdle.

2. Can New Mexico State figure out how to move the ball on the ground?
As mentioned earlier, the Aggies were held to minus-nine yards on the ground last week against Wyoming. That's simply not going to be good enough to win any games in 2018. Granted, many of those yards were lost via quarterback sacks, but running back Jason Huntley was still only able to manage 2.4 yards per carry on nine touches. Minnesota may not have the same number of future NFL players on their current defensive unit as what Wyoming had a week ago, but they will have athletes –- particularly on the defensive line — who will present problems all night for the Aggie offensive line. Finishing with positive yards on the ground should be considered a moral victory for a New Mexico State squad that will struggle all season.

3. Can Minnesota's new recruits be "elite?'
P.J. Fleck hauled in a top-40 recruiting class in 2018. There is a good chance we'll get to see a handful of those players on Thursday — albeit mostly in "garbage time." Nonetheless, all eyes will be on that young talent, looking for glimpses of what may be to come as Fleck continues his efforts to build Minnesota into a serious contender in the Big Ten West. This should be a game where the Gopher faithful are more excited about what they see in the fourth quarter than what they see in the first.

Final Analysis
New Mexico State is not a very good football team — it's that simple. They were dominated on both side of the ball by an good-but-not great Group of 5 squad one week ago. P.J. Fleck understands that, and he'll make sure to set the tone early with a dominant rushing performance early on, featuring a heavy dose of running back Rodney Smith. Once the Gophers have a comfortable lead, look for Fleck to keep his foot on the gas and see what his young quarterback can do. The Aggies don't have anyone in the secondary who can match up with Minnesota receiver Tyler Johnson alone. That will mean either a big night for Johnson or plenty of other open options downfield for Zack Annexstad. It's difficult to see this game being much closer than New Mexico State's season opener last week.

 




Don't underestimate that NMSU played a tough Wyoming opponent in its first game.
 

Stuff said:
Don't underestimate that NMSU played a tough Wyoming opponent in its first game.
Click to expand...

And has a short turn around to boot. Plus no game footage on us yet. It's like preparing for two openers, for them ...
 




Yikes! Most of the media folks looking for this game to go OVER the 47-48 point total by the Vegas books.

I just don't see it. Besides the fact that the Gophers are trotting out a true Fresh QB, they don't have much of a recent history of blowing out people in the NC schedule. To top that off, with their toughest NC game coming next week, Fresno, if the Gophers get up on the scoreboard at all tonight, I see them going straight up vanilla and not wanting to put much on tape for Fresno.

Gophers: 27 - 9
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Yikes! Most of the media folks looking for this game to go OVER the 47-48 point total by the Vegas books.

I just don't see it. Besides the fact that the Gophers are trotting out a true Fresh QB, they don't have much of a recent history of blowing out people in the NC schedule. To top that off, with their toughest NC game coming next week, Fresno, if the Gophers get up on the scoreboard at all tonight, I see them going straight up vanilla and not wanting to put much on tape for Fresno.

Gophers: 27 - 9
Click to expand...

Very solid take. Three TDs plus two FGs is plenty on offense, with a solid defensive effort.
 

Penalties 12-57 yards against Wyoming - Mostly motion type stuff but it reminded me of the lack of discipline under coach Clayes.

Time of Possession Wyoming 40:41 New Mexico State 19:19

Anything close to that again today will result in a blowout and we will get to see Morgan in the second half.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Yikes! Most of the media folks looking for this game to go OVER the 47-48 point total by the Vegas books.

I just don't see it. Besides the fact that the Gophers are trotting out a true Fresh QB, they don't have much of a recent history of blowing out people in the NC schedule. To top that off, with their toughest NC game coming next week, Fresno, if the Gophers get up on the scoreboard at all tonight, I see them going straight up vanilla and not wanting to put much on tape for Fresno.

Gophers: 27 - 9
Click to expand...

umm, what?

9/16/2017 Middle Tennessee St W 34-3
9/9/2017 @ Oregon State W 48-14
9/10/2016 Indiana State W 58-28

50% of their non-conference games in the past two years were blow-outs.

Yeah, 2014 and 2015 didn't have one, but those have been more the outlier than having one......
 



Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Yikes! Most of the media folks looking for this game to go OVER the 47-48 point total by the Vegas books.

I just don't see it. Besides the fact that the Gophers are trotting out a true Fresh QB, they don't have much of a recent history of blowing out people in the NC schedule. To top that off, with their toughest NC game coming next week, Fresno, if the Gophers get up on the scoreboard at all tonight, I see them going straight up vanilla and not wanting to put much on tape for Fresno.

Gophers: 27 - 9
Click to expand...
Actually I do see a blow out. You have two young quarterbacks that need confidence so I see a lot of short to medium high percentage passes. NMSU will have some breakdowns and just plain mismatches that result in explosive plays, get a comfortable lead bring in Tanner Morgan and the script will be repeated the foot will stay on the gas.
 


caliGopher said:
umm, what?

9/16/2017 Middle Tennessee St W 34-3
9/9/2017 @ Oregon State W 48-14
9/10/2016 Indiana State W 58-28

50% of their non-conference games in the past two years were blow-outs.

Yeah, 2014 and 2015 didn't have one, but those have been more the outlier than having one......
Click to expand...

Not for the opener.

2017 - Buffalo 17-7
2016 - Oregon St 30-23
2015 - TCU 17-23
 

Fair point about 2015 and 2016, although those were Power 5 opponents. Still, I think the Gophers should win comfortably here. They've had a pretty good track record in the non conference/openers going back to 2013, and even last year the victory never really seemed in doubt.

2013 opener we blew out UNLV 51-23 and 2014 Gophers defeated Eastern Ill 42-20. There are other non-conference examples that aren't openers, too. Shutting down Ryan Nassib and Syracuse in 2012, demolishing New Mexico State 44-21 in 2013, getting after David Fales and San Jose State in 2013 and beating them again the year after. Even in years the team struggled like 2015 and 2017, the only noncon loss came from No. 2 TCU.

Of course these came under different coaches and one should never overlook an opponent. Yet, I think tonight and the noncon schedule this year should go fairly well. I just have a good feeling about it, although who knows how things will go.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Not for the opener.

2017 - Buffalo 17-7
2016 - Oregon St 30-23
2015 - TCU 17-23
Click to expand...

Ok, but that's not what I was responding to. SON said in the NC schedule, not the opener.

But if you look at those three openers you have:

2015 - the #2 or #3 team in the country, so, yeah, not expecting a blowout.
2016 - New O-coordinator, new offensive system, HC's first season as a head Coach
2017 - New Head coach, new systems, and all the other baggage Fleck brought to his first year zero.

So yeah, in the openers the past three years, you've had some unique situations that have been tight games, don't disagree. This is year two (or year 0.2 or year one or whatever Fleck is calling it this week) so with a patsy of an opponent and improvement of players available, yes, this could easily be a blowout. Not sure that fits PJ's script though. We may make it tougher on ourselves to sell the story as more heroic.
 

caliGopher said:
Ok, but that's not what I was responding to. SON said in the NC schedule, not the opener.

But if you look at those three openers you have:

2015 - the #2 or #3 team in the country, so, yeah, not expecting a blowout.
2016 - New O-coordinator, new offensive system, HC's first season as a head Coach
2017 - New Head coach, new systems, and all the other baggage Fleck brought to his first year zero.

So yeah, in the openers the past three years, you've had some unique situations that have been tight games, don't disagree. This is year two (or year 0.2 or year one or whatever Fleck is calling it this week) so with a patsy of an opponent and improvement of players available, yes, this could easily be a blowout. Not sure that fits PJ's script though. We may make it tougher on ourselves to sell the story as more heroic.
Click to expand...

Good points.

The original post was that the media were predicting over the Vegas line, and those guys somehow are pretty good at setting those things.

One data point won’t prove or disprove it, but he had a fair point that the media’s score predictions might be overly optimistic.
 

BleedGopher said:
Athlon chimes in again with a more specific prediction:

Final Analysis

New Mexico State is not a very good football team — it's that simple. They were dominated on both side of the ball by an good-but-not great Group of 5 squad one week ago. P.J. Fleck understands that, and he'll make sure to set the tone early with a dominant rushing performance early on, featuring a heavy dose of running back Rodney Smith. Once the Gophers have a comfortable lead, look for Fleck to keep his foot on the gas and see what his young quarterback can do. The Aggies don't have anyone in the secondary who can match up with Minnesota receiver Tyler Johnson alone. That will mean either a big night for Johnson or plenty of other open options downfield for Zack Annexstad. It's difficult to see this game being much closer than New Mexico State's season opener last week.

Prediction: Minnesota 48, New Mexico State 6

https://athlonsports.com/college-fo...innesota-golden-gophers-prediction-picks-2018

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...

Nailed it. Score and plot. Kudos.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Good points.

The original post was that the media were predicting over the Vegas line, and those guys somehow are pretty good at setting those things.

One data point won’t prove or disprove it, but he had a fair point that the media’s score predictions might be overly optimistic.
Click to expand...

Lo and behold, they were not!! Kudos to those who took the over!
 

I was wrong! Heck, it might not even be the last time. Good thing I never made my way to the book to put some money down.

Pleasantly surprised! Solid performance in all aspects.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Lo and behold, they were not!! Kudos to those who took the over!
Click to expand...

hindsight is 20/20. This was a bad team missing half it's starting D, but we did exactly what we should have done in that situation. Nice win in week 1.
 

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