Gophs favored in 7 games, 1 point dogs to IA, 2 point dogs to NW, 2.5 dogs in Lincoln

swingman

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 12, 2010
Messages
3,143
Reaction score
2,022
Points
113
date visitor home line for Minnesota
8/30 NMSU Minnesota gives 10.5
9/8 FSU Minnesota gives 1
9/15 Miami Ohio Minnesota gives 5
9/22 Minnesota Maryland gives 1.5
10/6 Iowa Minnesota gets 1
10/13 Minnesota Ohio State gets 27
10/20 Minnesota Nebraska gets 2.5
10/26 Indiana Minnesota gives 2
11/3 Minnesota Illinois gives 9.5
11/10 Purdue Minnesota gives 1
11/17 Northwes Minnesota gets 2
11/24 Minnesota Wisconsin gets 19.5

This handicappers take:
Three should wins: NMSU, Illini, Miami (OH)
Two should lose: OSU, WI
seven games with a 2.5 spread either way; MN edge in 4 of those: Fresno, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/minnesota-2018-betting-preview-schedule-odds-futures
 


Kind of interesting that their lines contradict their app’s lines and the app takes into what the Vegas / offshore sites are posting.

For example, this Article has Minnesota -10 vs NMSU but on their app it shows MN -18.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Kind of interesting that their lines contradict their app’s lines and the app takes into what the Vegas / offshore sites are posting.

For example, this Article has Minnesota -10 vs NMSU but on their app it shows MN -18.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

These just odds for odds sake or are they taking money?
 

These just odds for odds sake or are they taking money?

They have an app that gamblers use called “Action Network: sports action app” and it tracks line movements etc and takes the majority opinion on the various bets. The app itself isn’t a betting app but you can track picks in it.

For example, right now the app is showing the NMSU game as a consensus MINNESOTA -18 as of today. It shows 2 line moves on this game the open at MN -17 with a move to -17.5 on 5/22 and a move to -18 on 7/22.

It also shows odds by book:
Betonline NMSU +18
Pinnacle NMSU +18
BetCris NMSU +17.5
BetUs NMSU +18
Heritage NMSU +18
Bovada NMSU +17.5
Bet365 NMSU +17.5
WillHill NMSU +19
5Dimes NMSU +18

The app also shows moneyline movement and Total (over/under movements) as well as what side the public is on.

Money Line is NMSU +675 / MINN-1050
Over/Under Total hasn’t come out
Public is 48% on Minn -18 vs 52% on NMSU +18

There is also some data on each team’s performance in last ten games straight up, against the spread and vs the total.
 


Looks about right. 7 wins a solid passing grade. 6 wins = lowest passing grade. I see them at either 6 or 7, but blindly optimistic for .500 or better in conference.
 

date visitor home line for Minnesota
8/30 NMSU Minnesota gives 10.5
9/8 FSU Minnesota gives 1
9/15 Miami Ohio Minnesota gives 5
9/22 Minnesota Maryland gives 1.5
10/6 Iowa Minnesota gets 1
10/13 Minnesota Ohio State gets 27
10/20 Minnesota Nebraska gets 2.5
10/26 Indiana Minnesota gives 2
11/3 Minnesota Illinois gives 9.5
11/10 Purdue Minnesota gives 1
11/17 Northwes Minnesota gets 2
11/24 Minnesota Wisconsin gets 19.5

This handicappers take:
Three should wins: NMSU, Illini, Miami (OH)
Two should lose: OSU, WI
seven games with a 2.5 spread either way; MN edge in 4 of those: Fresno, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/minnesota-2018-betting-preview-schedule-odds-futures

I'm surprised by this.

Looks like Maryland and Purdue are the two games I think we might lose that we are currently favored in.
It all depends on QB play and turnovers.
 


there is a better chance at 7 degree winds than 7 wins. edit: i'm just crabby this A.M. thinking that the QB quandry that Jerry and Co. brought us is still a size 12 boot to the nethers.
 



I'm surprised by this.

Looks like Maryland and Purdue are the two games I think we might lose that we are currently favored in.
It all depends on QB play and turnovers.

Clearly the handicappers have been won over by Fleck's PR skills, along with the starters we have coming back plus the potential of young players and more importantly transfers. They obviously have some optimism about this team to, for example, only be giving us 2 points at home vs Northwestern, given what they did to us last year.

Now, if we get injuries ... it all goes out the window.
 

There are always good opportunities for money early in the season if one knows your team inside and out. Some of the lines are always staggeringly perplexing.
 

There are always good opportunities for money early in the season if one knows your team inside and out. Some of the lines are always staggeringly perplexing.

This is a good point.

Maybe the early line is just to entice some folks to get the ball rolling on the "action", and they'll adjust the line later on when it gets closer to game time for the late betters.
 




Maryland beat Texas last year and their losses were all to very good teams.
(except Rutgers, but that was a big game for Rutgers).
 

there is a better chance at 7 degree winds than 7 wins. edit: i'm just crabby this A.M. thinking that the QB quandry that Jerry and Co. brought us is still a size 12 boot to the nethers.

WTF are 7 degree winds? And WTF is a quandry?
 



I would take the 27 off OSU, we play them closer due to them being stone bored when they have us for dinner. I would put that 27 plus 15 on the Wisconsin game. If Wisky is in the playoff hunt which is possible, they will do everything they can do to break the record for largest blowout in rivalry history.
 

Not too surprising. This season has serious swing potential, with everything from 9-3 to 2-10 reasonably in play.
 


Not too surprising. This season has serious swing potential, with everything from 9-3 to 2-10 reasonably in play.

I feel like after Jerry left we've been in this "WHO THE HELL KNOWS" mode .... more so than usual.
 

Basically, all but four games are toss-ups. Could be lopsided either way, according to these odds.
 

Basically, all but four games are toss-ups. Could be lopsided either way, according to these odds.

The eight tossups as a whole lean away from the Gophers winning, as well as the four non-toss up games.
This makes 5-7 seem more likely than 7-5.
Whether 5-7 is more likely than 6-6 is unknown.
 

The eight tossups as a whole lean away from the Gophers winning, as well as the four non-toss up games.
This makes 5-7 seem more likely than 7-5.
Whether 5-7 is more likely than 6-6 is unknown.

There are seven tossups. Gophers favored in four (Fresno, Maryland, Purdue, IN).

Three should wins. (NMSU, IL, Miami)

Two should lose (OSU, WI)

Even on the road, hard to see us as 2.5 dogs to Huskers. Close games at TCF vs Iowa and NU could be season changers.
 




Top Bottom