Leistikow: Predicting every Big Ten team's 2018 record (MN: 4-8, 2-7)

BleedGopher

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per Leistikow:

Big Ten West

6. Minnesota
Crossovers: Maryland (road), Ohio State (road), Indiana (home)

Why No. 6?
At Big Ten Media Days, even energetic coach P.J. Fleck wasn't able to pump up expectations for his second year in Minneapolis (even if he is calling this Year One, after categorizing last fall's 5-7 campaign as "Year Zero"). The program has just 23 scholarship upperclassmen (nine seniors, 14 juniors) and no obvious solution at quarterback. Rodney Smith should be one of the Big Ten's best running backs, and the offensive line returns four starters.

Potential issues
Fleck's rebuild at Western Michigan saw some early struggles, too (he went 1-11 in his first season there). A second-week home game vs. Fresno State (10-4 last year) will be a challenge. Going into a season with major quarterback questions — two freshmen, Tanner Morgan and Zack Annexstad, are competing — seems problematic.

Leistikow’s 2018 record prediction
4-8, 2-7

https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/s...o-state-wisconsin-iowa-urban-meyer/800809002/

Go Gophers!!
 

per Leistikow:

Big Ten West

6. Minnesota
Crossovers: Maryland (road), Ohio State (road), Indiana (home)

Why No. 6?
At Big Ten Media Days, even energetic coach P.J. Fleck wasn't able to pump up expectations for his second year in Minneapolis (even if he is calling this Year One, after categorizing last fall's 5-7 campaign as "Year Zero"). The program has just 23 scholarship upperclassmen (nine seniors, 14 juniors) and no obvious solution at quarterback. Rodney Smith should be one of the Big Ten's best running backs, and the offensive line returns four starters.

Potential issues
Fleck's rebuild at Western Michigan saw some early struggles, too (he went 1-11 in his first season there). A second-week home game vs. Fresno State (10-4 last year) will be a challenge. Going into a season with major quarterback questions — two freshmen, Tanner Morgan and Zack Annexstad, are competing — seems problematic.

Leistikow’s 2018 record prediction
4-8, 2-7

https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/s...o-state-wisconsin-iowa-urban-meyer/800809002/

Go Gophers!!

This guy may not be wrong. I think this yr will be hard and if we get 6 wins, we should be happy. We lack experience everywhere.

2019 is the year we should look forward to. We will lose very few players after this yr and most of the team back.
 

If the Gophers can't win six games this year, PJ should be replaced by the Washington State D-coordinator.
 


the game has changed

Player mobility to another school is trending up and appears that it will only become more prevalent. Longstoryshort - talent will no longer settle to redshirt or ride the pine so if ZA has skills he'll head out at the end of the year. The new dawn in NCAA football is schools that are struggling to find stability will find it even more difficult due to talent leaving. Sorry MN.
 



Leistikow’s 2018 record prediction
4-8, 2-7
My pre-camp handicapping:

New Mexico St - W
Fresno St - W
Miami (OH) - W
@Maryland - (Coin Toss)
Iowa - (Coin Toss)
@Ohio St -L
@Nebraska - (Coin Toss)
Indiana - W
@Illinois - W
Purdue - (Coin Toss)
Northwestern - L
@Wisconsin - L

If they split the coin toss games they end up 7-5 and in a bowl. worst case scenario above 5-7, best case 9-3. 2 B1G wins is a very real scenario but my gut is saying we beat NEB & Iowa this year.

The Fresno St game is interesting but I think we “should” have a talent advantage being the P5 vs G5. I know nothing is guaranteed in those games.
 

I'd be super disappointed in 4-8, but it's absolutely possible. PJ would still have 2 more years regardless. It would just suck to suffer through a season like that. Here's hoping it doesn't happen!
 

My pre-camp handicapping:

New Mexico St - W
Fresno St - W
Miami (OH) - W
@Maryland - (Coin Toss)
Iowa - (Coin Toss)
@Ohio St -L
@Nebraska - (Coin Toss)
Indiana - W
@Illinois - W
Purdue - (Coin Toss)
Northwestern - L
@Wisconsin - L

If they split the coin toss games they end up 7-5 and in a bowl. worst case scenario above 5-7, best case 9-3. 2 B1G wins is a very real scenario but my gut is saying we beat NEB & Iowa this year. Difference between going to a bowl & staying home.

The Fresno St game is interesting but I think we “should” have a talent advantage being the P5 vs G5. I know nothing is guaranteed in those games.

Agree with this, for the most part. I'd put Northwestern as a "coin toss", but I'd also put Indiana & Fresno St. as a "coin toss." That's the key; how they can do in those coin toss games. Last year, they lost Maryland & Purude; they won Nebraska.

I think the main guts from the writer are pretty spot on. Naturally, we believe more that Annextad or Morgan is going to grow & emerge than he would. It's the fun of being a fan of a team. He probably thinks they can just plug in somebody for Jackson & Jewell where I don't.

I simply see Wisconsin running away with the west without any drama...
 



Lot of people seem to have faith in Fleck and Company's ability to recruit and zero confidence in their ability to coach.

Getting only 4 wins out of that schedule would be throwing in the towel on the season.
 

I could see how it would happen.

I don't think we'd have to worry about anyone coming to hire PJ for a while if that happened....
 


At least one person who should be...was going to post this very thing on the other thread about his media days comments. I just don't get it...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GguYbXP3PiA" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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Way too hard to predict with the QB situation.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

At this point, there is almost an infinite number of possibilities for the season. Each game is a chapter in the season, and will help us begin to develop a better idea about what kind of team this is going to become. But, there is always the possibility of a surprise ending.

Which is a fancy way of saying that I don't have a bleepin' clue what this team is going to do. I could, if I wanted, make a pretty good case why this team will finish with 4 wins - and I could also make a pretty good case why this team will finish with 7 or 8 wins. In my worst nightmare, I don't see fewer than 4 wins, and in my wildest dreams, I really don't see more than 8 wins. Chapter one will open up in 35 days.

and in closing, courtesy of the Monotones:

(Chapter One says to love her)
(You love her with all your heart)
(Chapter Two you tell her you're)
(Never, never, never, never, never gonna part)
(In Chapter Three remember the meaning of romance)
(In Chapter Four you break up
(But you give her just one more chance))
 

At this point, there is almost an infinite number of possibilities for the season. Each game is a chapter in the season, and will help us begin to develop a better idea about what kind of team this is going to become. But, there is always the possibility of a surprise ending.

Which is a fancy way of saying that I don't have a bleepin' clue what this team is going to do. I could, if I wanted, make a pretty good case why this team will finish with 4 wins - and I could also make a pretty good case why this team will finish with 7 or 8 wins. In my worst nightmare, I don't see fewer than 4 wins, and in my wildest dreams, I really don't see more than 8 wins. Chapter one will open up in 35 days.

and in closing, courtesy of the Monotones:

(Chapter One says to love her)
(You love her with all your heart)
(Chapter Two you tell her you're)
(Never, never, never, never, never gonna part)
(In Chapter Three remember the meaning of romance)
(In Chapter Four you break up
(But you give her just one more chance))


If we are using lyrics there is only one song for our Gophs beating the Badgers on the gridiron and that song is ......

Wouldn't it be nice.


'ya know it seems the more we talk about it
it only makes it worse to live without it. '
 

If this ends up a four win season we will drop the season tickets we have had for ten years and switch to either the three-pack or occasional Craigslist pickup. I can only imagine there will be others like us and the season ticket numbers will plummet. Hoping we are looking at seven wins instead of four!
 

My pre-camp handicapping:

New Mexico St - W
Fresno St - W
Miami (OH) - W
@Maryland - (Coin Toss)
Iowa - (Coin Toss)
@Ohio St -L
@Nebraska - (Coin Toss)
Indiana - W
@Illinois - W
Purdue - (Coin Toss)
Northwestern - L
@Wisconsin - L

If they split the coin toss games they end up 7-5 and in a bowl. worst case scenario above 5-7, best case 9-3. 2 B1G wins is a very real scenario but my gut is saying we beat NEB & Iowa this year.

The Fresno St game is interesting but I think we “should” have a talent advantage being the P5 vs G5. I know nothing is guaranteed in those games.

Sorry, but Fresno and Indiana are absolutely "(Coin Toss)", at this point in time, until we get more data. Would like to hope that maybe NW will fall into that camp, as we see the season unfold. But not overly optimistic.

I think NMSt, Miami, and Illinois are really the only games we can feel "good" about, right now. Now as the season unfolds, lots of things can happen ...
 

If this ends up a four win season we will drop the season tickets we have had for ten years and switch to either the three-pack or occasional Craigslist pickup. I can only imagine there will be others like us and the season ticket numbers will plummet. Hoping we are looking at seven wins instead of four!

That is of course your decision to make ... but this just seems a little illogical to me.

Ten years means you had them for Brewster's last 3 years, picking them up after his first year was a 1-11 campaign, and also kept them through Jerry's first two years (3-9, 6-7). Granted, I do get it that losing gets old.


But surely you understand a couple facts: 1) Fleck's first two years at WMU were down years, 2) we were very young last year, and even younger this year.

So ... wouldn't you at least give it a shot through next year? That's the make or break year, to me.
 

I think any coach deserves at least 4 years, but if we only win 4 this year I will have some big concerns about PJ's coaching ability.

Sent from my RS988 using Tapatalk
 

I think any coach deserves at least 4 years, but if we only win 4 this year I will have some big concerns about PJ's coaching ability.

Sent from my RS988 using Tapatalk

If Fleck fails expect Ty Willingham to come in upon Dungy's request.
 

ESPN Currently:

New Mexico St - 92.5% W
Fresno St - 67.4% W
Miami (OH) - 78.8% W

@Maryland - 59.3% L
Iowa - 68.7% L
@Ohio St - 94.8% L
@Nebraska - 65.1% L


Indiana - 63.0% W
@Illinois - 61.8% W

Purdue - 51.1% L
Northwestern - 62.2% L
@Wisconsin - 90.5% L


5-7


If you sort them by percentage of winning, you get them in this order:

NMSU 92.5
Mia 78.8
FSU 67.4
Indiana 63
At Illinois 61.8
Purdue 48.9
Maryland 40.7
NW 37.8
at NEB 34.9
Iowa 31.3
Wisc 9.5
at OSU 5.2



Take anything within 20 points of 50-50, you get these as potential toss-up games:

FSU 67.4
Indiana 63
At Illinois 61.8
Purdue 48.9
Maryland 40.7
NW 37.8
at NEB 34.9
Iowa 31.3


That would leave two games as should definitely win and two games very likely losses, with 8 "toss up".

If you had horrible luck, you could finish as low as 2-10.
Or with great luck, 10-2.
Both would be extremely unlikely of course.

If you look at it from a "flippin states" election style, Purdue and Maryland should be easier to flip compared to the next closest games to flip to losses of Indiana and Illinois.
So 7-5 should be more likely than a 3-9 season.
 

I think any coach deserves at least 4 years, but if we only win 4 this year I will have some big concerns about PJ's coaching ability.

Sent from my RS988 using Tapatalk

Are your concerns about his coaching ability currently small?
 


That is of course your decision to make ... but this just seems a little illogical to me.

Ten years means you had them for Brewster's last 3 years, picking them up after his first year was a 1-11 campaign, and also kept them through Jerry's first two years (3-9, 6-7). Granted, I do get it that losing gets old.


But surely you understand a couple facts: 1) Fleck's first two years at WMU were down years, 2) we were very young last year, and even younger this year.

So ... wouldn't you at least give it a shot through next year? That's the make or break year, to me.

If you want to spot me the $1,100 for next year if we only win four, I'm in!! Agreed we have been through some tough years, but the newness of the Bank, and the hope and progress of the Kill/Claeys years it was worth putting up with them. I'm one of those Scandinavian Minnesotans that don't put a lot of stock in all of the talk and flash...just want someone to do their job, show progress (not major regression like we had last year) and win.

If the "donation" wasn't a part of the equation I would probably stick it out regardless...but I have better ways to spend my money if progress is not shown this year.
 

6 wins and a bowl would count as progress, in my book. That type of a season is definitely possible ... just not a sure thing. Hope that type of season would be enough hope that 2019 could be a 8+ win 2016 type season, for you ...
 




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