Pioneer Press: Gophers, Badgers on different trajectories for 2018 season

BleedGopher

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The Gophers and Badgers believe their football programs are on the upswing in 2018, but they’re on much different trajectories. While Minnesota entertains a possible return to a bowl game this fall, rival Wisconsin has been mentioned as a national championship contender.

In Paul Chryst’s three seasons as head coach in Madison, the Badgers are 34-7, including his best mark of 13-1 last year. They steamrolled Minnesota 31-0 to retain Paul Bunyan’s Axe for a 14th consecutive year last November. After losing 27-21 to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, they rebounded to beat Miami (Fla.) 34-24 in the Orange Bowl.

Meanwhile, the Gophers finished 5-7 in P.J. Fleck’s first season and missed out on a bowl for the first time since Jerry Kill’s first year in 2011.

The Badgers, with a Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Jonathan Taylor, are a consensus pick to win the Big Ten’s West division this fall and have the seventh-best odds (4 to 1) to make the four-team College Football Playoff, according to oddsmaker Bovada.

But Chryst didn’t add to the hype Tuesday at Big Ten media days.

“Nothing that happens outside really impacts inside the (locker) room,” Chryst said from the podium at the Chicago Marriott Downtown. “Our expectations and our goals inside the room have always been really high. And once you set those, then I think you’ve got to go back, and the only way to reach, obtain those goals, is to take advantage of each day and focus on that.”

https://www.twincities.com/2018/07/...rs-on-different-trajectories-for-2018-season/

Go Gophers!!
 

You could pretty much say that about the past 15 years. They've won fewer than nine games once in that span (2008, when they went 7-6), while we've won more than eight games once (2016, when we went 9-4). We hate them but they're one of the most consistently great teams in the conference and we're not even close at the moment.
 

It's felt like the difference the last few years (outside of last year) has been they've had a QB who could handle the heat and make a big play when the running game slows or the down and distance is 3rd and marginal as our defense has finally started to improve again (under Kill and Claeys particularly). We will see what this year holds but I'm not optimistic this is the year we take back the axe but I'd love for them to prove me wrong while I'm in attendance
 

It's felt like the difference the last few years (outside of last year) has been they've had a QB who could handle the heat and make a big play when the running game slows or the down and distance is 3rd and marginal as our defense has finally started to improve again (under Kill and Claeys particularly). We will see what this year holds but I'm not optimistic this is the year we take back the axe but I'd love for them to prove me wrong while I'm in attendance

When you look at Hornibrook's numbers the past two years, they are very average overall. Nice completion % last year, but all his other numbers have been pedestrian.

Wisc has had a top 5 TOP and defense the last three years. That is a big difference. Long, boring time-consuming drives on offense that usually end up with a score, and a fresh, lock-down defense.
 

It's going to be another 2-3 years before Gophers beat the Badgers. I'm a diehard Gopher fan but in all honesty the Badgers are light years ahead of Gophers (as article stated). A win against the Badgers in the next two years would be monumental.
 


I just want to see the Axe on our sideline one more time before I die

Note: I turn 32 this week
 

When talking trajectories, WI's is pretty much expected to be a level trajectory.

They were a national title contender last year (if I use it loosely), and the expectation for their trajectory is the same or possibly one win more.

The Gophers hopeful trajectory is more uphill and will be a steeper trajectory should their number of wins increase by more than WI's number of wins.
 





You could pretty much say that about the past 15 years. They've won fewer than nine games once in that span (2008, when they went 7-6), while we've won more than eight games once (2016, when we went 9-4). We hate them but they're one of the most consistently great teams in the conference and we're not even close at the moment.

That's especially true the last few years, with 10, 10, 11, and 13 wins, and winning four bowl games (the last two of which have been CFP bowls, though not playoff games).

Other than the 2008 season blip that you noted, Bielema, Anderson, and Chryst have pretty much only known success in Madison. Although the 2012 season they did go 8-6, with two 3-point losses, three OT losses, and a 6-point loss in the Rose Bowl coached by Alvarez (Ohio St and Penn St were ineligible that year, and Wisc curb-stomped Nebraska in the championship) ... not sure if that counts as an "unsuccessful" season.


The really interesting thing is that Alvarez had a lot of ups and downs. Got to the Rose Bowl in 1993, his fourth year. Then collapsed the two years after. Built back up and went to two consecutive Rose Bowls in 1998 and 1999, but went 5-7, 8-6, and 7-6 in 2001-2003. Then back up to 10 wins in 2005. Don't think coaches these days can get away with that ...
 

this is the year that we beat bucky and that they start to pull back as a program.
 

They are clearly in a much better spot as a program than we are, and have been dominant over the gophers for more than a decade. That said, I feel Wisconsin is perennially overrated due to the fact they beat up on such a weak division. The B1G West is just not that good. and while WI deserves credit for handling their business, their record gets them overrated. But then again, credit for consistency.
 

The really interesting thing is that Alvarez had a lot of ups and downs. Got to the Rose Bowl in 1993, his fourth year. Then collapsed the two years after. Built back up and went to two consecutive Rose Bowls in 1998 and 1999, but went 5-7, 8-6, and 7-6 in 2001-2003. Then back up to 10 wins in 2005. Don't think coaches these days can get away with that ...

Great example of sticking with the program and culture, even in the average years. You can be a flash in the pan early in the rebuild, but to develop that over time where you turn into a 10 win team over a 5 year period is very difficult. It takes a lot more than just star rankings to make that happen.
 




When you look at Hornibrook's numbers the past two years, they are very average overall. Nice completion % last year, but all his other numbers have been pedestrian.

Wisc has had a top 5 TOP and defense the last three years. That is a big difference. Long, boring time-consuming drives on offense that usually end up with a score, and a fresh, lock-down defense.

Idk this off hand, but I think it would be interesting to break down his numbers on 3rd down passing and based on down and distance. He seems to me grime watching that he is your example of a game manager. Does what’s asked of him and does it well. Nothing more, nothing less
 

this is the year that we beat bucky and that they start to pull back as a program.

There may be a likely path to upsetting bucky this year. Their D-line is thin. Any injuries late in the season could really hurt them.
 

Wisconsin has a system. They recruit players to fit the system, and then they coach them to play the system. Even when they've had coaching changes, the overall blueprint remains in place.

The key to this approach is that, if you pull it off correctly, you do not have to have a top-20 recruiting class every year to achieve and maintain success. you just have to be very disciplined, and make damn sure you recruit the right players who fit the system.

In recent history, the closest MN got to that approach was under Mason on offense - but they kept changing coordinators on defense, so they never got to the same level of consistency that WI has been able to reach.
 

Wisconsin has a system. They recruit players to fit the system, and then they coach them to play the system. Even when they've had coaching changes, the overall blueprint remains in place.

The key to this approach is that, if you pull it off correctly, you do not have to have a top-20 recruiting class every year to achieve and maintain success. you just have to be very disciplined, and make damn sure you recruit the right players who fit the system.

In recent history, the closest MN got to that approach was under Mason on offense - but they kept changing coordinators on defense, so they never got to the same level of consistency that WI has been able to reach.

Wouldn't Kill fit that description, too? His coordinators, as well as a good chunk of the whole staff, had stuck with him for 10-20 years. That would seem to me to be the definition of a consistent system where you recruit guys that fit the system.

Just too dang bad that Kill's health went downhill.
 

There may be a likely path to upsetting bucky this year. Their D-line is thin. Any injuries late in the season could really hurt them.

Anyone keeping track for the last 15 years to how many reasons we have come up with on gopher hole for why this should be the year we beat Bucky? I would guess the number is north of 200.
 

I just want to see the Axe on our sideline one more time before I die

Note: I turn 32 this week

That's what I used to say about the Jug. I sure hope Fleck figures out how to get all the trophies back.
 

Wisconsin has a system. They recruit players to fit the system, and then they coach them to play the system. Even when they've had coaching changes, the overall blueprint remains in place.

The key to this approach is that, if you pull it off correctly, you do not have to have a top-20 recruiting class every year to achieve and maintain success. you just have to be very disciplined, and make damn sure you recruit the right players who fit the system.

In recent history, the closest MN got to that approach was under Mason on offense - but they kept changing coordinators on defense, so they never got to the same level of consistency that WI has been able to reach.

I would say it was very similar with Kill as Mason, just other side of the ball. Kill didn’t have turnover among coaches on offense, just wasn’t very successful, whatever the reason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

I would say it was very similar with Kill as Mason, just other side of the ball. Kill didn’t have turnover among coaches on offense, just wasn’t very successful, whatever the reason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

QB !
 

That's especially true the last few years, with 10, 10, 11, and 13 wins, and winning four bowl games (the last two of which have been CFP bowls, though not playoff games).

Other than the 2008 season blip that you noted, Bielema, Anderson, and Chryst have pretty much only known success in Madison. Although the 2012 season they did go 8-6, with two 3-point losses, three OT losses, and a 6-point loss in the Rose Bowl coached by Alvarez (Ohio St and Penn St were ineligible that year, and Wisc curb-stomped Nebraska in the championship) ... not sure if that counts as an "unsuccessful" season.


The really interesting thing is that Alvarez had a lot of ups and downs. Got to the Rose Bowl in 1993, his fourth year. Then collapsed the two years after. Built back up and went to two consecutive Rose Bowls in 1998 and 1999, but went 5-7, 8-6, and 7-6 in 2001-2003. Then back up to 10 wins in 2005. Don't think coaches these days can get away with that ...
You do if you win three rose bowls at a non helmet school

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
 

That's what I used to say about the Jug. I sure hope Fleck figures out how to get all the trophies back.

We’ve won the Jug twice since the last time we won the Axe. And we don’t even play Michigan every year.
 

There may be a likely path to upsetting bucky this year. Their D-line is thin. Any injuries late in the season could really hurt them.

We have to have a coaching staff that is willing to try to beat them. We certainly did not have that last year. Not that we would have, but to basically take a knee for 4 quarters was more embarrassing than having Summer's Eve run up the score on Brewster.
 

We have to have a coaching staff that is willing to try to beat them. We certainly did not have that last year. Not that we would have, but to basically take a knee for 4 quarters was more embarrassing than having Summer's Eve run up the score on Brewster.

Complete nonsense but that's nothing new for you.
 

Is there anyone less empressive than Paul Cryst ( maybe TC) talking about his/their program. I found myself actually rooting for him to finish the sentences. Must has have great assistant coaches. If the Grophers aren’t successful, better replace the assistant coaches.
 

Is there anyone less empressive than Paul Cryst ( maybe TC) talking about his/their program. I found myself actually rooting for him to finish the sentences. Must has have great assistant coaches. If the Grophers aren’t successful, better replace the assistant coaches.

Yeah but who hires the right people, motivates and mentors (the assistants)? High on the list of HC responsibilities.

Chryst definitely isn’t great in front of a camera but his resume speaks for itself. Dad was a coach, seems to know football. Seems to make good hires. Recruiting at best clip in Wisconsin history.
 


Great example of sticking with the program and culture, even in the average years. You can be a flash in the pan early in the rebuild, but to develop that over time where you turn into a 10 win team over a 5 year period is very difficult. It takes a lot more than just star rankings to make that happen.

Patience must be in order. It took time for Barry Alvarez to put in place a system and culture that served all succeeding coaches well. See his coaching record.

It didn't happen overnight. His legacy is not only the culture and system. Succeeding coaches were able to win consistently, and Wisconsin has been able to recruit top 40 recruiting ranking except 2012.

They excelled at player development.

I will be ecstatic if the Gophers can pull off an upset this year. However, the game is at Camp Randall Stadium this year. Not totally impossible, but improbable.

Barry Alvarez Coaching Record 1990-2005
1990 Wisconsin 1–10-------0–8------10th
1991 Wisconsin 5–6--------2–6-------T–8th
1992 Wisconsin 5–6--------3–5-------T–6th
1993 Wisconsin 10–1–1----6–1–1----T–1st W Rose 5 6
1994 Wisconsin 7–4–1-----4–3–1----4th W Hall of Fame
1995 Wisconsin 4–5–2-----3–4–1----T–7th
1996 Wisconsin 8–5--------3–5-------7th W Copper
1997 Wisconsin 8–5--------5–3-------5th L Outback
1998 Wisconsin 11–1-------7–1------T–1st W Rose† 5 6
1999 Wisconsin 10–2-------7–1------1st W Rose† 4 4
2000 Wisconsin 9–4--------4–4------T–5th W Sun 24 23
2001 Wisconsin 5–7--------3–5------T–8th
2002 Wisconsin 8–6--------2–6------T–8th W Alamo
2003 Wisconsin 7–6--------4–4------T–7th L Music City
2004 Wisconsin 9–3--------6–2------3rd L Outback 18 17
2005 Wisconsin 10–3------5–3-------T–3rd W Capital One 15 15
 




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