STrib: Breaking down the Gophers' opponents: New Mexico State

BleedGopher

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per Randy:

Five Questions with Jason Groves on New Mexico State

1. New Mexico State ended a 57-year bowl drought last year and beat Utah State in the Arizona Bowl. What can the Aggies do for an encore?

They obviously have some key question marks such as how to replace an NFL wide receiver (Jaleel Scott, fourth-round pick by Baltimore) and three-year starter at quarterback (Tyler Rogers). But New Mexico State has enough pieces returning, including nine starters on defense, to win enough games for bowl eligibility for a second year in a row. Their defense under coordinator Frank Spaziani was good at getting after the quarterback and limiting big plays. They have improved depth this season in the front seven, which always has been an issue.

The Aggies’ schedule includes winnable games against New Mexico, UTEP and Liberty twice, as well as an FCS game (Alcorn State), which NMSU hasn't had for the past four years. As an independent, they most likely will need to win seven or eight games to justify a bowl game, such as the New Mexico Bowl or Arizona Bowl, because teams with conference bowl tie-ins would have an edge.

2. The Aggies played their final season in the Sun Belt Conference last year and are an independent team this year. What is the program’s future going forward?

NMSU has the 2019 schedule nearly finished and several games for 2020 and 2021 as well, so I think there is an idea that it will last at least that long. After that, who really knows? There is a new chancellor at the university, and I'm sure they will look at costs to see if it makes any sense to remain independent after that.

3. If you had to pick one Aggies player on offense and one on defense who could be difference-makers this year, who are they and why?

On offense, I will go with Matt Romero. He's a junior college transfer quarterback who looked good in spring practice. He's a strong runner, which coach Doug Martin likes, but he throws the ball on the run and looks to get the ball downfield, all qualities Martin looks for in a quarterback. NMSU has all but one returning starter back on the offensive line and plenty of skilled players returning, but the Aggies need production from the quarterback, assuming Romero wins the job in the fall.

On defense it's Terrill Hanks, senior outside linebacker. Hanks is the best player on the team this year and is a four-year starter. He does a little bit of everything at the Sam linebacker spot. He made a huge play on the goal line in the bowl game, reading a pitch, knocking it down and recovering the fumble himself.

4. New Mexico State will beat Minnesota if …

The offense scores over 30 points. It's always a benchmark for Martin's offense, and toward the end of last season, the Aggies offense started to sputter a little bit. NMSU needs to be more balanced, and junior Jason Huntley is a good dual-threat running back. The Aggies won’t win if they put the ball in the air 35 times, which they did nearly every week last year.

5. Minnesota will beat New Mexico State if …

The defense isn't as good as advertised. NMSU never be will known as a defensive team, but the Aggies need that side of the ball to perform well early in the season while the offense gets into a groove. I expect the Aggies to give up some points to a Power Five team, but if they don't give up the gashing yards on the ground and turn guys loose in the secondary, I think they could keep the game close going into the fourth quarter, which they did last season at Arizona State.

http://www.startribune.com/breaking-down-the-gophers-opponents-new-mexico-state/488507281/

Go Gophers!!
 

if we lose to NMSU I'm off the fleck bandwagon
 

So New Mexico State plays the Saturday before - Wyoming. Does this help or hurt the Gophers? I‘ll hang up and listen(just kidding)
 

The Aggies played their final season in the Sun Belt Conference last year and are an independent team this year. The Aggies’ schedule includes ... Liberty twice... they most likely will need to win seven or eight games to justify a bowl game.
Don't recall ever seeing a team scheduled twice in the same season before, even in the old days. 7-8 wins for a bowl seems ridiculously easy to accomplish in a case like this.

Hey! Maybe we should go Independent and schedule a handful of cream-puffs and run the table. We won't make the playoff, but we can claim a Nat'l Title (a la UCF) every year!

if we lose to NMSU I'm off the fleck bandwagon
Agree 100%

So New Mexico State plays the Saturday before - Wyoming. Does this help or hurt the Gophers?
They will have a game under their belt, but they will also have a short week of preparation for their biggest test of the season. The game is here and they'll only have last years tapes to work with. Shouldn't be a factor at all.
 

So New Mexico State plays the Saturday before - Wyoming. Does this help or hurt the Gophers? I‘ll hang up and listen(just kidding)

7 pm saturday nite game......turnaround and travel on wednesday to get here? we get to see game film of new personnel...advantage Gophers
 


7 pm saturday nite game......turnaround and travel on wednesday to get here? we get to see game film of new personnel...advantage Gophers

The Old FBT website has a Preview of the Gophs and NMSU game titled 'The Help' meaning that we needed to play NMSU to get healthy..ironically Jerry K fell ill. we also lost.
 

The Old FBT website has a Preview of the Gophs and NMSU game titled 'The Help' meaning that we needed to play NMSU to get healthy..ironically Jerry K fell ill. we also lost.

True, but that was in Kill's "Year Zero" when apparently losses don't count. Except they do and that was an awful one. Particularly coming after a 2 point loss to USC at the Coliseum. Not even a victory against Iowa made that season one to remember.

The next time the Gophers played them the Aggies lost by 23.

They need to do that again this year.
 

Don't recall ever seeing a team scheduled twice in the same season before, even in the old days.

I'm guessing it's because Liberty will be in their first FBS season in 2018 and had difficulty filling out their schedule, particularly as an independent. They weren't even good in FCS, so they will presumably be getting drilled on a regular basis for the foreseeable future. Interestingly, they also play NMSU twice again in 2019.

To the point of the thread - the Gophers should handle them easily, but I would not at all be shocked by a loss. This is a much better team than the NMSU team that beat us in 2011 (though to be fair, the 2018 Gophers will be better than the 2011 version as well).
 

NMSU recruiting rankings last 5 years are 125, 129, 128, 125, 122.
 



I'll write the first buyout check if we lose this game, a loss here would be South Dakota bad for the program

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
 

I'll write the first buyout check if we lose this game, a loss here would be South Dakota bad for the program

Nah. USD plays in a lower division and wasn't even good in that division. NMSU isn't great or even average, but they are much, much better than USD was in 2010.
 

Nah. USD plays in a lower division and wasn't even good in that division. NMSU isn't great or even average, but they are much, much better than USD was in 2010.
I guess I'll clarify. The loss would set the program back just as far, you're right in terms of the talent level of the teams, but if we're being honest here if you're not Notre Dame or BYU you might as well be subdivision if you're an independent.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
 

Couple interesting points for me:

1) how much will NM St "show", in the sense of on game film, in the game vs Wyoming? Granted, first week is usually nice to keep things more basic, and coaches will always add new wrinkles each week.

Our schemes will be roughly the same as last year, and they'll be prepared by watching film of our games from last year. They won't have film on some of our new players, particularly on the DL, and of course at QB.


2) how much will Wyoming "beat up" NM St's defense? Wyoming runs a very physical running offense. A lot of inside running and play-action passing. That's what Bohl brought with him from ND St.

Could be a huge benefit for the Gophs to play a NM St defense that has taken some body blows ...
 



Couple interesting points for me:

1) how much will NM St "show", in the sense of on game film, in the game vs Wyoming? Granted, first week is usually nice to keep things more basic, and coaches will always add new wrinkles each week.

Our schemes will be roughly the same as last year, and they'll be prepared by watching film of our games from last year. They won't have film on some of our new players, particularly on the DL, and of course at QB.


2) how much will Wyoming "beat up" NM St's defense? Wyoming runs a very physical running offense. A lot of inside running and play-action passing. That's what Bohl brought with him from ND St.

Could be a huge benefit for the Gophs to play a NM St defense that has taken some body blows ...

It's like it's 2011 all over again!
 


It's like it's 2011 all over again!

Well, in 2011 the first week of the season we went to USC and almost beat the Trojans in Memorial Stadium. NM St lost to Ohio in the first week. Then we all know what happened in week 2 ...
 

True, but that was in Kill's "Year Zero" when apparently losses don't count. Except they do and that was an awful one. Particularly coming after a 2 point loss to USC at the Coliseum. Not even a victory against Iowa made that season one to remember.

The next time the Gophers played them the Aggies lost by 23.

They need to do that again this year.
I was at both games, it was a painful loss. I believe they just dinked and dunked us to death with short passes and we couldn't stop it
 

I was at both games, it was a painful loss. I believe they just dinked and dunked us to death with short passes and we couldn't stop it

Sadly, what I will always remember about watching that game on TV .... is when the camera just happened to focus on Kill laying on the ground, at the right moment to catch his whole body spasm in a convolution. It was not a good thing to see ... they cut away very quickly.
 

I was at both games, it was a painful loss. I believe they just dinked and dunked us to death with short passes and we couldn't stop it

I recall NMSU scoring on their 1st possession. Might be my imagination but JK's gopher squads almost always got scored on rt away.
 

I recall NMSU scoring on their 1st possession. Might be my imagination but JK's gopher squads almost always got scored on rt away.



Yeah, they marched right down the field. We almost tied game at 28 in second half but we got stopped on 4th down on the goal line.
 

Sadly, what I will always remember about watching that game on TV .... is when the camera just happened to focus on Kill laying on the ground, at the right moment to catch his whole body spasm in a convolution. It was not a good thing to see ... they cut away very quickly.

In stadium we couldn't really see what was going on. My seats were on home side and I was on side of field he was on the ground, but you couldn't see much else

stadium was really quiet. Fan behind me was blaming the refs
 

Yeah, they marched right down the field. We almost tied game at 28 in second half but we got stopped on 4th down on the goal line.

yer right the game was never out of hand and it felt like NMSU had used the Jerry Kill strategy to beat Jerry Kill. make less mistakes than your opponent - keep it close and steal the win. great strategy for an underdog tho awful spectator football for a Big Ten team.
 

In stadium we couldn't really see what was going on. My seats were on home side and I was on side of field he was on the ground, but you couldn't see much else

stadium was really quiet. Fan behind me was blaming the refs

I was at that game and on the opposing sideline near the corner (Opposite of Student Section Endzone) and I don’t recall seeing him actually collapse but I recall seeing the players all move toward him then back off to give him space while he laid on the ground. It was a scary / confusing moment in the crowd. Hard to get your mind back in the game after that.
 

Will Danny Gamboa buy air time on BTN for his Casa de Autos?
 

I guess I'll clarify. The loss would set the program back just as far, you're right in terms of the talent level of the teams, but if we're being honest here if you're not Notre Dame or BYU you might as well be subdivision if you're an independent.

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Massey Ratings head to head says:

New Mexico State at Minnesota = 82% to 18% Minnesota

for giggles; South Dakota at New Mexico State = 44% to 56% South Dakota on the road
 

Massey Ratings head to head says:

New Mexico State at Minnesota = 82% to 18% Minnesota

for giggles; South Dakota at New Mexico State = 44% to 56% South Dakota on the road

I'm showing 87-13% with a score of 34-17. Does it fluctuate that much in 17 minutes?
 


My CF 18 Massey says 82%, but I could be doing something wrong I suppose.

According to the Mighty Massey algorithm, the Gophers will go 7-5 with losses to Iowa, OSU, Purdue, N'western, and Wisconsin.
 


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New Mexico St has an experienced, attacking defense that has been much improved under their DC Frank Spaziani, and could pose problems for a new QB making his first start (whoever that ends up being). I expect that the Gophers will just run the ball down their throat, but they will not be pushovers...
 
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