Burns: Qb analysis


Good read. I'm with him on Annexstad. IMHO, if he's not the starter after Fall camp, it will only be a matter of games before he is the starter. Learned the system fast and was comparable to Morgan in Spring game (maybe slightly behind).
 

Burns has a bad habit of the “if you subtract out X or Y then player or team Z looked better (or worse)”. If you’re going to go down the qualifying road then you have to dismiss the weak out of conference defenses, adjust for top 25 Big Ten defenses, etc, etc ad nauseum. I find it horribly distracting.

Bottom line is MN has struggled at offense for a long time. I’d bet a fair amount of money, based on the spring game and their total inexperience, that either or both will struggle mightily this year. I’ll be happy to be wrong. Hopefully we see signs of talent, competence emerge early and develop over the season.
 

I'm excited about Annexstad too, but momentum in maturity as a QB doesn't always carry over. College is full of QBs who impress or matured quickly and still hit the magic wall that separates the bad from the good. Hopefully doesn't hit it, and / or Morgan does well.
 

Ironically, the best formula for success for the Gophers this year may be to take a page from the Jerry Kill MN playbook: strong running game, emphasize time of possession, and keep the passing attempts down to avoid exposing the QB's to too many hits.

If Morgan or Annexstad can just complete a few passes at the right time to compliment the running game, that should be enough. If they get into B1G play, and the Gophers are putting up 35+ passing attempts a game, that would be a bad sign from my perspective.

My ideal would be long, time-consuming drives that end with Rodney Smith TD's, or at least a FG. any passing TD's would be a plus.
 


Ironically, the best formula for success for the Gophers this year may be to take a page from the Jerry Kill MN playbook: strong running game, emphasize time of possession, and keep the passing attempts down to avoid exposing the QB's to too many hits.

If Morgan or Annexstad can just complete a few passes at the right time to compliment the running game, that should be enough. If they get into B1G play, and the Gophers are putting up 35+ passing attempts a game, that would be a bad sign from my perspective.

My ideal would be long, time-consuming drives that end with Rodney Smith TD's, or at least a FG. any passing TD's would be a plus.

I agree! This would be my ideal too. This is the type of system that Iowa and Wisconsin have built up and been using to success in varying degrees.
 

Ironically, the best formula for success for the Gophers this year may be to take a page from the Jerry Kill MN playbook: strong running game, emphasize time of possession, and keep the passing attempts down to avoid exposing the QB's to too many hits.

If Morgan or Annexstad can just complete a few passes at the right time to compliment the running game, that should be enough. If they get into B1G play, and the Gophers are putting up 35+ passing attempts a game, that would be a bad sign from my perspective.

My ideal would be long, time-consuming drives that end with Rodney Smith TD's, or at least a FG. any passing TD's would be a plus.

I'm guessing that with some of the receivers they've just brought in, and are currently recruiting, things have been promised and we will see more passing this year.
 

It can't be worse than Croft last year, right?
 

It can't be worse than Croft last year, right?

In retrospect, Croft was a round peg in a square hole. He should have been a triple-option or veer-type QB in a system where the QB runs 20 times a game and throws 10 passes - not the other way around. The guy has athletic ability - but he was just a bad fit at MN - in Fleck's system. Whether he would have been a better fit under Claeys, no one will ever know.
 



It can't be worse than Croft last year, right?

It'd be tough. But man, that's what I said last year too.

I assume either Morgan or Annexstad will be better than Croft (most games), but neither of them will have as good of a game as Croft had vs. Nebraska.
 

Ironically, the best formula for success for the Gophers this year may be to take a page from the Jerry Kill MN playbook: strong running game, emphasize time of possession, and keep the passing attempts down to avoid exposing the QB's to too many hits.

If Morgan or Annexstad can just complete a few passes at the right time to compliment the running game, that should be enough. If they get into B1G play, and the Gophers are putting up 35+ passing attempts a game, that would be a bad sign from my perspective.

My ideal would be long, time-consuming drives that end with Rodney Smith TD's, or at least a FG. any passing TD's would be a plus.

Though with the amount of read options I'm not sure the QB took any less hits and may have taken more.

I'm hoping our OL, QB and WR are improved enough that they can pass 35 times and not be disastrous. I would certainly expect to see more passing than necessary during the NC (if the games are going well) to try to flush out how good those areas are in game situations. Hopefully they are good enough they can be 50/50ish run/pass. Or that they score so many points in the first half of every game that they don't have to complete a pass in the second half, that'd be OK too. :)
 

Ironically, the best formula for success for the Gophers this year may be to take a page from the Jerry Kill MN playbook: strong running game, emphasize time of possession, and keep the passing attempts down to avoid exposing the QB's to too many hits.

If Morgan or Annexstad can just complete a few passes at the right time to compliment the running game, that should be enough. If they get into B1G play, and the Gophers are putting up 35+ passing attempts a game, that would be a bad sign from my perspective.

My ideal would be long, time-consuming drives that end with Rodney Smith TD's, or at least a FG. any passing TD's would be a plus.

You have identified the style of play needed for the offense to protect the defense and have the best chance to maximize Big Ten wins. It is the same formula Murray Warmath utilized so well. Very well said, SON! Beat the stinking badger, GOPHER! IF P J Fleck can utilize that philosophy he will have the chance to be the GOPHER head coach for a long time, IF he is interested in that possibility. It is what Kill discovered and TC and the STAFFERS understood. Mase had an offense that could score too quickly and did not provide enough comfort and shelter for the defenders against high powered offenses. IF that darn qb sneak or draw had not scored so quickly vs the cornblues in 2003 and they would have sustained a long, time consuming 3.5 to 5d yard per rushing attempt with Barber, Maroney and TT pounding the Michigan linebackers that game might have been won. In the end Mase didn't win enough Big Ten games to last more than 10 seasons. The same was true with Kill. TC & the STAFFERS were not given a chance by the administration and bjm trainee, Coyle. TC & the STAFFERS 9 win season will be the high water mark for quite a long time, I suspect.

Run the clock...pound the rock and put the defense on the sideline and give them great field position IS something that can be done at Minnesota. P J Fleck will have to discover that in order to win enough Big Ten games to be successful here. In, (of course) my tired, aging point of view. The very BEST defenses do NOT spend a lot of time on the playing field. They spend more time on the sidelines and very seldom have to defend a short field. The BEST Big Ten offenses spend a LOT of time on the field, run the clock, pound the rock and only punt or turn the ball over leaving a very LONG field for the defense to defend.
 

Ironically, the best formula for success for the Gophers this year may be to take a page from the Jerry Kill MN playbook: strong running game, emphasize time of possession, and keep the passing attempts down to avoid exposing the QB's to too many hits.

If Morgan or Annexstad can just complete a few passes at the right time to compliment the running game, that should be enough. If they get into B1G play, and the Gophers are putting up 35+ passing attempts a game, that would be a bad sign from my perspective.

My ideal would be long, time-consuming drives that end with Rodney Smith TD's, or at least a FG. any passing TD's would be a plus.

I agree with the long drives part, as TOP is a big part of Fleck's offense, but the rest sounds a lot like last year, sans the timely passing (for the most part). I can't see Fleck doing that, nor should we expect it with a full year and then some for most to learn the offense. This year needs to look a lot more like the RPO Fleck prefers.
 



I can't take much more RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT
 

It can't be worse than Croft last year, right?

Unfortunately yes, yes it can even if not likely. The team was so discombobulated last year we have to believe that simply by having another year in the system there will be improved individual and unit performance and production.
 

I can't take much more RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT

Get used to it- seems to be a contagious affliction offensive coordinators catch once they enter Minneapolis over the past several years.


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I realize that the QBs are inexperienced, but they have to figure out a scheme to maximize QB protection with a combination of RUTM, RPO, Quick release short passing with the run threat.

They must do something to start putting the WRs in the optimal situation to catch a pass (hopefully YAC production). It looks like PJ Fleck likes recruiting mobile linemen that can shift or open lanes judging from the films that he has out there from WMU. I'd like to see them develop wildcats.

Sure, they'll lose a few winnable games. Just don't get those nasty blowouts. I just don't like predictable RUTM. Spice it up a little. Let the team play loose and disciplined at the same time.

How well the defense plays this year will make the difference between going to a decent bowl or none at all. They have to give the offense an opportunity to increase either TOP or improve the chances of scoring a lots of points.

This sounds like a madman's request sitting at a bar and tossing a few. Oh well. That is life. At least, we've got something to talk about instead of getting drunker than a rabid skunk.
 

I can't take much more RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT

Not picking on you, simply using your post as a jumping off point.

I am so sick of hearing the RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT meme that I went through the play-by-play from last year to see how often we "achieved" the storied RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT combo.

Over the course of last year, the Gophers punted 67 times.

There was a total of 37 3-and-outs.

I counted the plays leading up to the punts two ways:

1 - How many times (on a 3-and-out) did the Gophers go run (of any kind), run (of any kind), int., punt?
2 - How many times did the Gophers get at least 1 first down, and then punt, and what were the preceding 3 plays...did the Gophers go run (of any kind), run (of any kind), int., punt?

All percentages rounded

There was a total of 9 RRIP scenarios - 13% of the times we punted
There was a total of 5 3-and-out RRIP scenarios - 7% of the times we punted
There was a total of 4 3+plays+RRIP scenarios - 6% of the times we punted
There was a total of 5 RRIP scenarios on a 3-and-out - 14% of the times we punted

High number of punts - 9 vs. Iowa
Low number of punts - 1 vs. Neb
High number of 3-and-out - 6 vs wis
Low number of 3-and-out - 0 vs Neb
High number of RRIP+3+plays+RRIP 2 vs Iowa
Low number of RRIP+3+plays+RRIP 0 achieved 4 times

At least 1 of the RRIP scenarios contained a "run" that was credited as a sack by the ESPN play-by-play, but I don't recall which instance, or which game.

And no...I'm not going back any further, or doing this for other teams.
 

Not picking on you, simply using your post as a jumping off point.

I am so sick of hearing the RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT meme that I went through the play-by-play from last year to see how often we "achieved" the storied RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT combo.

Over the course of last year, the Gophers punted 67 times.

There was a total of 37 3-and-outs.

I counted the plays leading up to the punts two ways:

1 - How many times (on a 3-and-out) did the Gophers go run (of any kind), run (of any kind), int., punt?
2 - How many times did the Gophers get at least 1 first down, and then punt, and what were the preceding 3 plays...did the Gophers go run (of any kind), run (of any kind), int., punt?

All percentages rounded

There was a total of 9 RRIP scenarios - 13% of the times we punted
There was a total of 5 3-and-out RRIP scenarios - 7% of the times we punted
There was a total of 4 3+plays+RRIP scenarios - 6% of the times we punted
There was a total of 5 RRIP scenarios on a 3-and-out - 14% of the times we punted

High number of punts - 9 vs. Iowa
Low number of punts - 1 vs. Neb
High number of 3-and-out - 6 vs wis
Low number of 3-and-out - 0 vs Neb
High number of RRIP+3+plays+RRIP 2 vs Iowa
Low number of RRIP+3+plays+RRIP 0 achieved 4 times

At least 1 of the RRIP scenarios contained a "run" that was credited as a sack by the ESPN play-by-play, but I don't recall which instance, or which game.

And no...I'm not going back any further, or doing this for other teams.

I think the RUTM meme really had more to do with games like Kent St. during the Kill years.

Last year the QB play as so bad I don't really think you can get into the play calling so much as the tools on the field just weren't there to do much.
 

We haven’t had an O-lineman drafted in more than a decade. Can’t have a consistent ground game with constantly below average offensive line talent/play.
 

To clarify - when I talk about ball control and holding down the # of pass attempts - I'm proposing that as the best way to protect an inexperienced QB.

If Morgan or Annexstad turns into some phenom, and the Gophers start passing for 300+ yards a game, I'll all for it. I just don't expect it. I think it's far more likely that the QB - whoever it is - goes through a learning curve, and the coaches will need to protect them in some fashion. the best way as I see it - to protect an inexperienced QB is to run the ball effectively and stick to high-percentage pass patterns. complete some passes and build confidence.

That approach has the side affect of keeping the defense off the field. a bunch of 3-and-outs early in the game exposes the defense and wears them out for the 4th quarter.

so - I'm not saying 'play it safe' because I want to do that. I'm saying 'play it safe' because I think they will need to do that. If I'm wrong, and they come out throwing the ball all over the place, I'll be surprised. but I'll be fine with it - as long as they're throwing the ball to someone with the same color jersey.
 

Have to throw on first down unless we have a dominant run game. Otherwise, it really will be RRIP. Bottom line is the players have to execute and “take what they’re giving”. A slavish devotion to a ratio based on down and distance, ie walrus ball can be frustrating. I guess if we want to lose quicker...
 

Not picking on you, simply using your post as a jumping off point.

I am so sick of hearing the RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT meme that I went through the play-by-play from last year to see how often we "achieved" the storied RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT combo.

Over the course of last year, the Gophers punted 67 times.

There was a total of 37 3-and-outs.

I counted the plays leading up to the punts two ways:

1 - How many times (on a 3-and-out) did the Gophers go run (of any kind), run (of any kind), int., punt?
2 - How many times did the Gophers get at least 1 first down, and then punt, and what were the preceding 3 plays...did the Gophers go run (of any kind), run (of any kind), int., punt?

All percentages rounded

There was a total of 9 RRIP scenarios - 13% of the times we punted
There was a total of 5 3-and-out RRIP scenarios - 7% of the times we punted
There was a total of 4 3+plays+RRIP scenarios - 6% of the times we punted
There was a total of 5 RRIP scenarios on a 3-and-out - 14% of the times we punted

High number of punts - 9 vs. Iowa
Low number of punts - 1 vs. Neb
High number of 3-and-out - 6 vs wis
Low number of 3-and-out - 0 vs Neb
High number of RRIP+3+plays+RRIP 2 vs Iowa
Low number of RRIP+3+plays+RRIP 0 achieved 4 times

At least 1 of the RRIP scenarios contained a "run" that was credited as a sack by the ESPN play-by-play, but I don't recall which instance, or which game.

And no...I'm not going back any further, or doing this for other teams.


I get your overall point, but it's fair to say our passing offense has been lacking.
 

Just average about 4.5+ yards on first down and the rest will take care of itself. I don't care if you run or pass on first down.
 

No TD passes in the last 5 games??!! I don't see how our passing could get worse, but I suppose its possible.
 

No TD passes in the last 5 games??!! I don't see how our passing could get worse, but I suppose its possible.

Some folks on this board were sure it just had to get better after Mitch left.... no idea what planet their brain was on.
 

If we can run for 300 and pass for 200 a game and win the turn over battle we'll be just fine! :)
 

I can't take much more RUTM/RUTM/INCOMPLETE PASS/PUNT

+1000. Seems to me you have to mix up that order to keep the defense honest. Of course, if you throw on first down (which you should do from time to time), and the pass is incomplete, you dig yourself a hole that Fleck doesn’t want to get into. I still think we need to mix that up more than we did last year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Some folks on this board were sure it just had to get better after Mitch left.... no idea what planet their brain was on.

That’s a little harsh. Mitch threw 8 TDs, 12 INTs, and 56% in 12 games in 2016. That team was above average because of the defense. It’s entirely reasonable to assume the offense might improve after a display like that. As bad as Croft was I’m not sure he had a game as bad as Mitch v. Wisconsin in 2016.
 

Even at one td per game in the last five games, how many more passes would have had to go in the I column in each game? How many of those Big Ten games would have been archived in the W column of the Big Ten Record Book? Time and the record will always tell us all we need to know about a Big Ten season. The coach might be a NAVAL fan who really wants to row the boat. But, he needs to build an offense that can pound the rock. He has not joined the SPACE FORCE that a few too many Golden Gopher Fans and some potus (prexy) types are currently focused upon. Just as with a war or battle, it is very difficult to win Big Ten games without a ground game that works and keeps the defense off the field. If the GOPHER can't run the ball effectively, the GOPHER can't get much done throwing the ball. Year one of Fleck ball had difficulty passing...and they also had difficulty running the ball. They did not do much to shelter their defense. A couple Big Ten wins and 3 weak out of conference encounters (sure wins) will never allow AIR FLECK to feel the wind beneath his wings. So, if he wants to go all SPACE FORCE in 2018, that is up to him. It certainly might make many Gopher Hole fans happy. That would be interesting! Hope it's not: "...off we go...into the wild blue yonder...CRASH..." But, Coach Fleck should certainly follow the good advise of GH fans who are packing lots of frequent flyer miles on their Capital One Venture cards...
 




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