Bill Connelly’s 2018 Minnesota Preview


Beat me to it.

Didn't really end on a high note, did he?

"I’m really curious what Minnesota can do as Fleck gets more of his pieces. The Big Ten West is getting its act together — everyone but Illinois can feel optimistic in the present or near future tenses — and Minnesota should grow more competitive, too. Either way, I’m not expecting anything massive from the Gophers for another year or two."

Projected loss to Fresno State at home would be devastating to fan support. Local media would rip this team to pieces. Sometimes I hate the Minneapolis market for that reason. I really hope Fleck avoids that loss.

It was also interesting to see that defensive radar. I personally hate Rob Smith's "everything in front of you/play on your heels" style, but they certainly did limit big plays last year.

I also didn't feel like our rush defense was that bad last year, but thinking back on it, it probably was.
That MSU pitch play tore us to pieces as did Maryland's Ty Johnson.
Then that Michigan game... 12.5 yards average on 16 carries for Higdon... brutal.

It's hard to win with porous rush D in the B1G.
 

MAC stats don't cut it

Similar to the Kill early years we are awash in MAC stats of anyone that busted loose on a MAC schedule with a few P5 softies. Fleck gets ore time but Fleck ain't getting the 2nd year raise Kill got cuz people here have no more time for MAC effort. You can quote me on this- If Fleck fails to get more than 5 wins in 2018 he'll be fired.
 

Similar to the Kill early years we are awash in MAC stats of anyone that busted loose on a MAC schedule with a few P5 softies. Fleck gets ore time but Fleck ain't getting the 2nd year raise Kill got cuz people here have no more time for MAC effort. You can quote me on this- If Fleck fails to get more than 5 wins in 2018 he'll be fired.

I highly doubt that Minnesota is going to fire Fleck after this season unless he wins like 3 or fewer games.
It's also heavily dependent on how we get there.
If Morgan gets hurt in the first couple games and our PWO QB doesn't pan out then Fleck would likely keep his job with 2 wins.

Not to mention his buyout gets a lot less significant after next season so they're probably going to give him one more regardless.
 

Similar to the Kill early years we are awash in MAC stats of anyone that busted loose on a MAC schedule with a few P5 softies. Fleck gets ore time but Fleck ain't getting the 2nd year raise Kill got cuz people here have no more time for MAC effort. You can quote me on this- If Fleck fails to get more than 5 wins in 2018 he'll be fired.

There’s no way he’ll be fired any time before the 2020 season and I doubt even then unless we truly hit rock bottom. If you meant a 5 win campaign is a harbinger of him getting fired down the road that’s probably more defensible. If we win 5 or less in 2018 the team has to look better in some way shape or form in 2018 or the fans and recruits may really start to question. If we go down the Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers, or recent Oregon State road that would be very bad (I don’t see that happening with the talent coming in).
 


Beat me to it.

Didn't really end on a high note, did he?

"I’m really curious what Minnesota can do as Fleck gets more of his pieces. The Big Ten West is getting its act together — everyone but Illinois can feel optimistic in the present or near future tenses — and Minnesota should grow more competitive, too. Either way, I’m not expecting anything massive from the Gophers for another year or two."

Projected loss to Fresno State at home would be devastating to fan support. Local media would rip this team to pieces. Sometimes I hate the Minneapolis market for that reason. I really hope Fleck avoids that loss.

It was also interesting to see that defensive radar. I personally hate Rob Smith's "everything in front of you/play on your heels" style, but they certainly did limit big plays last year.

I also didn't feel like our rush defense was that bad last year, but thinking back on it, it probably was.
That MSU pitch play tore us to pieces as did Maryland's Ty Johnson.
Then that Michigan game... 12.5 yards average on 16 carries for Higdon... brutal.

It's hard to win with porous rush D in the B1G.

Rob Smith's defense really bothered me too.

I don't think it was entirely an issue of having small DEs, I thought it was schematic, or at least partially schematic.
 

<5 wins and Fleck is gone. I'll be on the hockey board by that time this year but i'll be done posting here in Football if Fleck is retained with less than 5 wins. Coyle is not Maturi
 

<5 wins and Fleck is gone. I'll be on the hockey board by that time this year but i'll be done posting here in Football if Fleck is retained with less than 5 wins. Coyle is not Maturi

Moot point, they will win 5 or more this year.
 

Beat me to it.

Didn't really end on a high note, did he?

"I’m really curious what Minnesota can do as Fleck gets more of his pieces. The Big Ten West is getting its act together — everyone but Illinois can feel optimistic in the present or near future tenses — and Minnesota should grow more competitive, too. Either way, I’m not expecting anything massive from the Gophers for another year or two."

Projected loss to Fresno State at home would be devastating to fan support. Local media would rip this team to pieces. Sometimes I hate the Minneapolis market for that reason. I really hope Fleck avoids that loss.

It was also interesting to see that defensive radar. I personally hate Rob Smith's "everything in front of you/play on your heels" style, but they certainly did limit big plays last year.

I also didn't feel like our rush defense was that bad last year, but thinking back on it, it probably was.
That MSU pitch play tore us to pieces as did Maryland's Ty Johnson.
Then that Michigan game... 12.5 yards average on 16 carries for Higdon... brutal.

It's hard to win with porous rush D in the B1G.

Having a predictable, one-dimensional offense that never adjusted certainly didn't help the defense either.
 



Having a predictable, one-dimensional offense that never adjusted certainly didn't help the defense either.

yeah, PJF will not be given the amount of excuse making that was afforded Jerry Kill. Most of you posters here know A-A-A-A-lot more than me about Gopher football but the lessons from the Kill era are still in place and Coyle's career cannot afford a languishing MAC level football team. Yes, it probably means we will probably hire Charlie Weis (think Tubby Smith of football)
 

Having a predictable, one-dimensional offense that never adjusted certainly didn't help the defense either.

Ha, well, you're not wrong. Everything from the schemes to the play calling to the personnel left a lot to be desired last year.

I yelled at my TV watching a _replay_ of that MSU goal line sequence from last year. That was infuriating.

We didn't have the players to do what this staff wanted to do last year so it's awfully hard for me to pass judgement on what I saw.
 

<5 wins and Fleck is gone. I'll be on the hockey board by that time this year but i'll be done posting here in Football if Fleck is retained with less than 5 wins. Coyle is not Maturi

If the Gophers win <5 games in 2018 Fleck will not be fired after the season.
 

Fleck will not be gone after this year. We have one of the best young coaches in college football. He would have to have a terrible year for it to be even considered
 



If Fleck is fired in the next three years for lack of producing wins and moving this team forward, the foreseeable future of Minnesota football will officially be dead.
 

If Fleck is fired in the next three years for lack of producing wins and moving this team forward, the foreseeable future of Minnesota football will officially be dead.

I didn't think that there was a chance in hell that PJ would take this job, and I would be extremely angry if he was dismissed after his second season. Even if he went 0pher.
 

Ha, well, you're not wrong. Everything from the schemes to the play calling to the personnel left a lot to be desired last year.

I yelled at my TV watching a _replay_ of that MSU goal line sequence from last year. That was infuriating.

We didn't have the players to do what this staff wanted to do last year so it's awfully hard for me to pass judgement on what I saw.

Gretsky.jpg

In most cases, the staff didn't even seem to try to adjust. As many have posted, the MD game was, as you put it, infuriating. Clear opportunities on offense with slight adjustments. Fleck put together a very good staff so it was a big head-scratcher to watch it repeatedly happen.
 

Rob Smith's defense really bothered me too.

I don't think it was entirely an issue of having small DEs, I thought it was schematic, or at least partially schematic.


It's not my preferred style either
 

If Fleck is fired in the next three years for lack of producing wins and moving this team forward, the foreseeable future of Minnesota football will officially be dead.

Why do you think that? If PJ isn’t the answer there are others.
 

If Fleck is fired in the next three years for lack of producing wins and moving this team forward, the foreseeable future of Minnesota football will officially be dead.

The answer is not changing coaches every few years
 

The answer is not changing coaches every few years

There must be some data out there on how long it has taken successful coaches to have some definable level of success (say 6+ wins). I doubt there are many where it has taken longer than 3 years. I’d argue some programs hang on way too long when all the red flags are there that the ship is going down (I’m NOT saying that’s the case with PJ vintage MN).
 

Fleck will not be gone after this year. We have one of the best young personalities in college football. He would have to have a terrible year for it to be even considered

FIFY.
 


He won 13 games and ended the Cotton Bowl within one score of Wisconsin at Western Michigan.

Fleck achieved more in 3 years at a bad MAC school than Minnesota has in the last decade.

For all the ragging I like to do over his systems, he managed to guide the team to 5 wins and close competitions in several games despite years of sub-par recruiting classes and a complete reconstruction of our offense and defense.

It's safe to say that he is one of the best young coaches in the country.

I'm still more worried about him leaving us after a successful year than us firing him after an unsuccessful year.
 

There must be some data out there on how long it has taken successful coaches to have some definable level of success (say 6+ wins). I doubt there are many where it has taken longer than 3 years. I’d argue some programs hang on way too long when all the red flags are there that the ship is going down (I’m NOT saying that’s the case with PJ vintage MN).

'vintage MN" that is genuinely funny.
 

<5 wins and Fleck is gone. I'll be on the hockey board by that time this year but i'll be done posting here in Football if Fleck is retained with less than 5 wins. Coyle is not Maturi

No, Coyle is not Maturi. But this is 100% Coyle's guy. If he fires Fleck 2 years in, that looks as bad for Coyle as it does for Fleck.
 

He won 13 games and ended the Cotton Bowl within one score of Wisconsin at Western Michigan.

Fleck has achieved more in 3 years at a MAC school than Minnesota has in the last decade.

For all the ragging I like to do over his systems, he managed to guide the team to 5 wins and close competitions in several games despite years of sub-par recruiting classes and a complete reconstruction of our offense and defense.

It's safe to say that he is one of the best young coaches in the country.

I'm still more worried about him leaving us after a successful year than us firing him after an unsuccessful year.

I would like you to review the WMU 2016 campaign. what? IL and NW...sure we can't beat them both in a year but how is that better than the Gopher Citrus Bowl year?
 


I don't think you understand how hard it is to take a football team from 1-11 to 13-1 in 4 seasons. That's nearly impossible at a high school. Doing that at a division one school is nearly impossible.

It’s surely a lot easier when the teams are similar in talent and resources. I am optimistic Fleck can bring in the talent and coaches to make this thing work but the record is littered with lower level coaches that couldn’t overcome talent deficits vs entrenched powers. That’s Fleck’s hurdle.
 

He won 13 games and ended the Cotton Bowl within one score of Wisconsin at Western Michigan.

Fleck achieved more in 3 years at a bad MAC school than Minnesota has in the last decade.

For all the ragging I like to do over his systems, he managed to guide the team to 5 wins and close competitions in several games despite years of sub-par recruiting classes and a complete reconstruction of our offense and defense.

It's safe to say that he is one of the best young coaches in the country.

I'm still more worried about him leaving us after a successful year than us firing him after an unsuccessful year.

We'll see. After year one, I didn't see a team developing under the new coach. I saw no glimpses of how things will improve.

I don't disagree if he has a successful year that he's a flight risk. For two reasons if he pulls a rabbit out of his hat, I would be surprised if he bolts for two reasons: 1. He hasn't shown he can develop sustained success. 2 Given the "culture" of the administration at the U, he'd be stupid not to jump at an offer from a school that provides better and more stable leadership to work under.

As to his coaching ability, he admits himself he's not an X's and O'x guy. He's selling something, and it's culture, not coaching. It worked at WMU when he used that to get the best MAC Players available. When he had better players than nearly everyone they played, they won. When he didn't, he didn't win.

His recruiting has certainly been more interesting to pay attention to than we're used to, but it has not led the Big Ten or even the Big Ten West. When your philosophy is to recruit players who are better than your competition and you don't do that, what next?

The coaching last year was abysmal at times and average at best. Fleck made his strategy work at WMU, but it wasn't his coaching strategy that drove the success. Oh, and as a reminder, Daryl Hazel was also a hot young coach coming out of the MAC at one point to. So was a litany of other coaches who left the MAC after a few seasons without proving sustained success. How'd WMU do last year again?

As Fleck says, in four or five (or is it 6 now? i forgot if this is year zero 2.0 or year one) years we'll have our answers. If he's successful, I'll be surprised. If he's not, we're rebuilding again with a roster full of players who bought a culture that didn't work/no longer exists. When the rest of the world is still playing football, where does that leave us, and our "nekton mentality"?
 

There must be some data out there on how long it has taken successful coaches to have some definable level of success (say 6+ wins). I doubt there are many where it has taken longer than 3 years. I’d argue some programs hang on way too long when all the red flags are there that the ship is going down (I’m NOT saying that’s the case with PJ vintage MN).

I'm not saying you give him an eternity, but if you're changing coaches every 3 years, you'll never be successful

I'd say a coach should get minimum 4 years, pending complete disaster. If we go from 5 wins last year, to 3 wins this year, and 1 win next year, yeah, fire him after 3
 

It’s surely a lot easier when the teams are similar in talent and resources. I am optimistic Fleck can bring in the talent and coaches to make this thing work but the record is littered with lower level coaches that couldn’t overcome talent deficits vs entrenched powers. That’s Fleck’s hurdle.

Damn, I always think Frank Lauterbur every time this is brought up.
 




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