Four Stats to Consider as the Gophers Prepare for 2018

DanielHouse

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As the Gophers football season quickly approaches, it’s worth thinking about areas the team can improve this year. Of course, there are a few obvious categories must be fixed, such as the passing game and pass rush. However, it’s worth noting the areas to tweak or build upon entering the 2018 season, too. With another year of talent and a better understanding of the roster, it will be interesting to see how the coaching staff approaches the improvement of these categories.

Executing the “78% formula”

The Gophers lost three games by one score or less last season and winning the turnover battle could have made a difference. They lost or were even in this category during all three of those losses. When a team is inexperienced like the Gophers’ current roster is, the margin for error can be razor thin. Taking care of the football and creating a few turnovers can make a big difference. Minnesota averaged a +0.0 turnover margin per game last season. In 2016, they finished at +0.6, which ranked 25th nationally. If they can come out on the positive end of this statistic, it could pay dividends within a schedule which will feature several tight games. P.J. Fleck has even studied the difference a positive turnover battle margin can have. The coaching staff is making it clear with “78%” signage throughout the entire practice facility.

“When you look at the turnover margin, the studies we’ve done over a long period of time – over the course of the last seven years of football -- whether that’s National Football League or collegiate battle – if you win the turnover battle, you can win 78% of the time,” Fleck said.

The defense must be opportunistic like they were early last season, when they were averaging more than two takeaways per game. As the year progressed, this number started to tail off significantly. Closing on the opportunities available and creating takeaways can go a long way toward flipping this statistic.

“We can control the turnover margin,” Fleck said. “We can control taking opportunities on defense, not dropping interceptions, picking fumbles up, creating fumbles and then fourth downs – getting off the field.”

On the other side of the ball, taking care of the football is emphasized so much within P.J. Fleck’s culture. You constantly hear “the ball is program” throughout every practice. The focus on taking care of the football is another important component to balancing out this statistic and potentially even flipping it.

“On offense, we can control whether we throw an interception, whether we fumble the football, whether we convert those third downs, fourth downs to continue keeping it moving,” Fleck said.

Finding an identity through the air

No matter what, the Gophers will be starting a quarterback with no Division-1 experience. Last year, the passing game was almost non-existent due to a combination of factors. One being poor quarterback play and the inability to keep defenses honest. The second was a lack of skill players who can adequately get separation. The Gophers have several young options, including wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell who can help in this area.

Overall, only six teams had a worse overall completion percentage (47.2%) and just eight averaged fewer passing yards per game (126.1) than the Gophers in 2017. Minnesota’s quarterbacks tossed nine total touchdown passes and 11 interceptions last year, ranking near the bottom of every major passing category. Not only that, but their completion percentage was worse last year (47.2%) than in 2016 (54%). They also averaged just 6.5 yards per passing attempt during each of the past two seasons. Getting in a rhythm on offense through improved quarterback play and separation at wide receiver can go a long way toward helping the Gophers find an offensive identity. If the Gophers could finish the season with a 60% and a 7.5 yards per attempt figure, it would help many aspects of the offense.

More importantly, it would directly correlate with the team’s overall balance. The Gophers called passing plays on just 32.61% of total offensive plays, which was the ninth-lowest mark in college football. The Gophers need to find a way to keep defenses honest at all three levels by eliminating stacked fronts and testing teams vertically. With true freshman Zack Annexstad or redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan at the helm, there will be growing pains, but taking care of the football and getting in a rhythm via the short-to-intermediate can be a step toward solving many offensive issues.

Continuing the disciplined play

When P.J. Fleck was hired at Minnesota just over a year ago, he talked about the importance of playing disciplined football. At Western Michigan, his teams always finished in the top quarter of overall penalties committed per game. During many practices, the Gophers were focusing on situations which tested their mental strength and discipline. There was a level of accountability incorporated into every practice. It paid off in a major way. To the surprise of many, the Gophers were the least penalized team in the country last year.

They committed 3.2 penalties per game and surrendered just 28.3 penalty yards per game, which were top marks in college football. Overall, they cut the total amount of penalties in half after finishing 81st in penalties per game (6.5) in 2016. This type of disciplined play can be a foundation for the future. Developing players in a system which promotes playing the game correctly can speed up their development. Limiting overall penalty yardage can also place your team in more favorable down-to-go situations. Defensively, it doesn’t provide teams with extra life to sustain drives. More importantly, it can make an impact late in games when other teams are tired. If you can execute slightly better, you’re gaining an advantage.

Getting after the quarterback with four rushers

One of the biggest keys to success for the Gophers this season is their pass rush. They have been unable to establish consistent pressure for the better part of five seasons. As a unit, they’ve eclipsed 30 sacks just once since 2013. It will be important to build a pass rush that can get after the quarterback with four rushers. It is hard to consistently manufacture pressure, especially if you’re not in third-and-long often. In 2016, the Gophers used more blitzing and schematic strategies to get after the quarterback. They were effective, but last season, the overall depth among the defensive line was just too depleted. The table below shows how inconsistent the Gophers have been on the defensive line.

Gophers Total Sacks

2017- 23 sacks, 14.5 from D-Line (10th in the Big Ten)
2016- 37 sacks (4th Big Ten- more aggressive via blitzing)
2015- 22 sacks (11th)
2014- 27 sacks (9th)
2013- 18 sacks (10th)

The addition of O.J. Smith should help at the one and zero technique to create more 1-on-1 opportunities on the edge. With new redshirt rules allowing players to participate in four games before losing a redshirt, the coaches might try freshman defensive tackle Elijah Teague at three-technique early in the season. Gary Moore also played well last season and can line up opposite of Smith, too.

On the edge, Minnesota will be relying upon Sam Renner and Esezi Otomewo to step up at the five technique spots. They’ll both need to hold up against the run, which was a problem last year. Carter Coughlin will also have another year under his belt at the “R” spot to help him get after the passer. Between staying healthy, scheming creatively and finding a few young contributors, the pass rush will be a priority in 2017.
 

I didn't realize the turnover stat that they were positive the first half of the season then dropped to zero. That was interesting.

I'm also surprised about the sack numbers from the prior years. Did Jerry prohibit Tracy from blitzing? Or was that a Sawvel thing?

The one disagreement I have is WR. I don't think separation was the issue as much as either the ball would be a mile away or if it hit them they'd drop it. Not saying separation wouldn't help, but I don't think that was the problem.

I've said several times in other posts they can make incremental improvements in offense and be a much better team. Not championship quality, but a better record. Cut completely missed passes in half, cut drops in half, cut OL missed assignments in half. That will mean winning the close games they lost last year in most cases and maybe sneaking out a "shouldn't win" game.
 

I think o-line play will be the single biggest factor this season. Does Donnelle Greene emerge into an All-B1G performer and get drafted? Does Weyler stay healthy and play at a high level at center all year? Does Andries start from Day 1 and is he the real deal? How much have Olson and Schleuter improved? Does Dickson start or contribute? Are either Faalele or Dunlap ready as true freshmen?

A lot of unknowns that could go either way. If most of these end up in the positive column, the line should be much improved, which will let Rodney run wild and help the passing game.
 

Interesting problem with penalties. One team can have very few penalties while the other has many. After the game everyone is whining about the lack of penalties called on the other team. In addition discipline plays a large part in the game. Meaning, do your assignment, don't fumble, don't false start etc, catch the "damn ball," run your route correctly, and it goes on and on.
 

"The Gophers lost three games by one score or less last season..."

Nice point made by Daniel...2017 team was very close to going 8-4...Purdue, Maryland, and Iowa all could swing the other way...like getting Indiana and OSU instead of MSU and Michigan...

"When a team is inexperienced like the Gophers’ current roster is, the margin for error can be razor thin."

Not sure this observation of inexperience by Daniel is true...

Offense should be anchored by 5th year seniors/returning starters Rodney Smith, Donnell Greene, Jared Weyler; junior/returning starter Tyler Johnson is experienced and looks like he could be a break-out star; fourth year juniors Beebe, Witham, Dovich, Oseland all could play big roles in improving o-line play/tight end play; third year guys and returning starters Olson and Schlueter have good experience...Dickson has two years juco experience if he turns out to still be part of the picture

Defense should have nice senior leadership from returning starters Jacob Huff, Shenault, Moore; senior Blake Cashman adds nice experience as does Julian Huff; third year veterans and returning starters Barber, Martin, Coughlin, Kiondre, Winfield bring more experience to the defense; third and fourth year guys DeLattiboudere (returning starter), Devers, Durr, Renner, Swenson all have seen the field...PJ brought in Williamson, OJ Smith, Royal Silver to add some maturity to defense.

"Overall, only six teams had a worse overall completion percentage (47.2%) and just eight averaged fewer passing yards per game (126.1) than the Gophers in 2017. Minnesota’s quarterbacks tossed nine total touchdown passes and 11 interceptions last year, ranking near the bottom of every major passing category."

Daniel points out some staggering numbers. I have no doubt that Fleck, Ciarrocca, Simon, Callahan, Burns and Patterson can improve on those numbers. Fleck/Simon recruits in Douglas, Bell, Bateman, VanDyne, Gibson and two Fleck/Simon QB recruits should help. Seth Green or Paulson or Spann-Ford could help at TE as well.
 


Great analysis DH. Some crazy stats there. Lots of work ahead. Kill/Claeys left the cupboard very bare.
 

Great analysis DH. Some crazy stats there. Lots of work ahead. Kill/Claeys left the cupboard very bare.

Minnesota had six offensive/defensive guys on Athlon All Big preseason lists...Smith, Greene, Johnson, Barber, Winfield, Coughlin. Brooks maybe makes that list if healthy.

Northwestern had seven, Nebraska five, Maryland five, Iowa five, Purdue five, Illinois four, Indiana three.

Carpenter was All Big in 2016...Weyler, Olson, Schlueter are good Big Ten lineman; Dovich and Oseland are good veteran depth o-linemen that will compete to start...Seth Green, Kieft, Beebe can be good Big Ten TEs...Huff, Shenault, Kiondre, Swenson can hold their own in secondary, maybe Durr if healthy...Martin, Cashman, Huff all are solid linebackers...Gary Moore is a good player...Devers and DeLatti may surprise some this year...hope Renner and Gibson are d-line surprises...Phil Howard can be a good option at WR...Femi-Cole has looked good in limited action...Herbers has a big leg...Jordahl is solid.

Cupboard is not very bare.
 

One simple point;

Could the current QB situation for 2018 possibly be ANY worse than the deadly combo of Croft/Rhoda last year? Hard to even fathom.

Interesting hypothetical; I wonder how 2016 would have gone with Croft/Rhoda at the helm and conversely, I wonder how 2017 would have gone with an experienced multi-year starter like Leidner for the whole season?
 

Minnesota had six offensive/defensive guys on Athlon All Big preseason lists...Smith, Greene, Johnson, Barber, Winfield, Coughlin. Brooks maybe makes that list if healthy.

Northwestern had seven, Nebraska five, Maryland five, Iowa five, Purdue five, Illinois four, Indiana three.

Carpenter was All Big in 2016...Weyler, Olson, Schlueter are good Big Ten lineman; Dovich and Oseland are good veteran depth o-linemen that will compete to start...Seth Green, Kieft, Beebe can be good Big Ten TEs...Huff, Shenault, Kiondre, Swenson can hold their own in secondary, maybe Durr if healthy...Martin, Cashman, Huff all are solid linebackers...Gary Moore is a good player...Devers and DeLatti may surprise some this year...hope Renner and Gibson are d-line surprises...Phil Howard can be a good option at WR...Femi-Cole has looked good in limited action...Herbers has a big leg...Jordahl is solid.

Cupboard is not very bare.

Lol the same posts over and over again. Cupboard is loaded yet your posts are filled with cans and ifs and mays about walk-ons and players who have contributed very little. The OL was bad last year. The WR/TE's including Howard, Beebe etc were even worse. The DBs weren't great either. The DEs are undersized and were manhandled. This roster does have some good players, but the cupboard was bare and Fleck continues to load up at the grocery store.
 



One simple point;

Could the current QB situation for 2018 possibly be ANY worse than the deadly combo of Croft/Rhoda last year? Hard to even fathom.

Interesting hypothetical; I wonder how 2016 would have gone with Croft/Rhoda at the helm and conversely, I wonder how 2017 would have gone with an experienced multi-year starter like Leidner for the whole season?

Here's a simple answer:

In 2016, we would have won less than 9 games with Croft/Rhoda at QB.

In 2017, we would have won more than 5 games with Mitch at QB.
 

One simple point;

Could the current QB situation for 2018 possibly be ANY worse than the deadly combo of Croft/Rhoda last year? Hard to even fathom.

Interesting hypothetical; I wonder how 2016 would have gone with Croft/Rhoda at the helm and conversely, I wonder how 2017 would have gone with an experienced multi-year starter like Leidner for the whole season?

Considering many P5 QBs had similar or worse QBRs than Rhoda or Croft I’d assert that yes, it can definitely be worse. We will never know if Croft could have been developed or would have been better with a more capable supporting cast. It simply wasn’t going to happen with this regime. Case closed.

As far as Leidner starting last year that’s a good question but I’d argue the results probably would have been similar under the scheme we ran last year. He was never that great under the old familiar scheme and adding a new scheme..We also simply didn’t have the players to execute the offense. Hopefully see improvements this year.
 

Lol the same posts over and over again. Cupboard is loaded yet your posts are filled with cans and ifs and mays about walk-ons and players who have contributed very little. The OL was bad last year. The WR/TE's including Howard, Beebe etc were even worse. The DBs weren't great either. The DEs are undersized and were manhandled. This roster does have some good players, but the cupboard was bare and Fleck continues to load up at the grocery store.

Development important? If we were bad last year...is it fair to expect some improvement this year?
 

Lol the same posts over and over again. Cupboard is loaded yet your posts are filled with cans and ifs and mays about walk-ons and players who have contributed very little. The OL was bad last year. The WR/TE's including Howard, Beebe etc were even worse. The DBs weren't great either. The DEs are undersized and were manhandled. This roster does have some good players, but the cupboard was bare and Fleck continues to load up at the grocery store.

The thing i find funny is that you cannot compare cupboards as who knows who stays and who develops under previous staff if they stayed
so comparing is actually a stupid thing to try
the cupboard is not stocked up due to the change in coaches as it is with many programs.
the cupboard is getting refilled by a new coach as it does with many new staffs

Bottom line is we should be better every year until we get to the pinnacle of the program and then the question is can we sustain that level, and will that level be high enough to make all parties(fans, administration and potential new recruits) happy

I think 2018 will be better than 2017 and its due to the hard work the players on the team are putting in.
 



I didn't realize the turnover stat that they were positive the first half of the season then dropped to zero. That was interesting.

I think that's to be expected when you look at the schedule.

First half of the season: Buffalo, Oregon St, Midd Tenn St, Maryland, Purdue, Mich St.

Second half: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin.
 

Lol the same posts over and over again. Cupboard is loaded yet your posts are filled with cans and ifs and mays about walk-ons and players who have contributed very little. The OL was bad last year. The WR/TE's including Howard, Beebe etc were even worse. The DBs weren't great either. The DEs are undersized and were manhandled. This roster does have some good players, but the cupboard was bare and Fleck continues to load up at the grocery store.

Speaking of same posts over and over again.

I don't know if you're a man/woman/child....but if you happen to be a grown man, I would recommend reconsidering the use of "Lol" in your vernacular. But, that's just personal preference. This is America.
 

Speaking of same posts over and over again.

I don't know if you're a man/woman/child....but if you happen to be a grown man, I would recommend reconsidering the use of "Lol" in your vernacular. But, that's just personal preference. This is America.

Dwayne Johnson uses lol. You might want to get this info to him.
 

The thing i find funny is that you cannot compare cupboards as who knows who stays and who develops under previous staff if they stayed
so comparing is actually a stupid thing to try
the cupboard is not stocked up due to the change in coaches as it is with many programs.
the cupboard is getting refilled by a new coach as it does with many new staffs

Bottom line is we should be better every year until we get to the pinnacle of the program and then the question is can we sustain that level, and will that level be high enough to make all parties(fans, administration and potential new recruits) happy

I think 2018 will be better than 2017 and its due to the hard work the players on the team are putting in.

Fact: Jerry Kill didn't understand the importance of the QB at the P5 level.
 

One simple point;

Could the current QB situation for 2018 possibly be ANY worse than the deadly combo of Croft/Rhoda last year? Hard to even fathom.

Interesting hypothetical; I wonder how 2016 would have gone with Croft/Rhoda at the helm and conversely, I wonder how 2017 would have gone with an experienced multi-year starter like Leidner for the whole season?

It can always get worse (although I do think we will see an improved passing attack this season), but I remember last year at this time some people were comfortable with our QBs by pointing at Leidner and saying "it can't get worse."
 

Speaking of same posts over and over again.

I don't know if you're a man/woman/child....but if you happen to be a grown man, I would recommend reconsidering the use of "Lol" in your vernacular. But, that's just personal preference. This is America.

And that comes from a guy who calls himself Heracles!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

It can always get worse (although I do think we will see an improved passing attack this season), but I remember last year at this time some people were comfortable with our QBs by pointing at Leidner and saying "it can't get worse."

im not gonna go look at past posts but i do not doubt what you wrote.
 

If Barber has two more years like last year, he will be in Gopher record books top ten for all-time tacklers.

If Coughlin has two more years like last year, he will be in Gopher record books top ten for all time tackles for loss.

If Rodney has a year like last year, he will be number three all time Gopher career rusher.

If Tyler has two more years like last year, he will go down in Gopher top ten all-time receiving yards.

Emmit can go down as third most fg made, most accurate, most over 50.

Donnell Greene might be best olineman since 2006. Weyler on Remington watch list for second year. Olson was on BTN all freshman team last year. Schlueter was hon mention.

Winfield was BTN all frosh in 2016....Devers, Beebe were honorable mention in 2016.

Cupboard not bare.
 

If Barber has two more years like last year, he will be in Gopher record books top ten for all-time tacklers.

If Coughlin has two more years like last year, he will be in Gopher record books top ten for all time tackles for loss.

If Rodney has a year like last year, he will be number three all time Gopher career rusher.

If Tyler has two more years like last year, he will go down in Gopher top ten all-time receiving yards.

Emmit can go down as third most fg made, most accurate, most over 50.

Donnell Greene might be best olineman since 2006. Weyler on Remington watch list for second year. Olson was on BTN all freshman team last year. Schlueter was hon mention.

Winfield was BTN all frosh in 2016....Devers, Beebe were honorable mention in 2016.

Cupboard not bare.


Overall OL depth was bare, we had no serviceable QB, WR core thin, TE thin, so we had 2 good LB's, a good safety, good RB, 2 good OL, and one WR with potential
 

Overall OL depth was bare, we had no serviceable QB, WR core thin, TE thin, so we had 2 good LB's, a good safety, good RB, 2 good OL, and one WR with potential

That's elite cupboard stocking according to swingman. Lolololz
 

The turnover deal is good, but good teams / tougher competition are more likely to win a turnover battle than are bad teams.

If an opponent is faster, smarter, stronger, chances are they are more likely to step in front of an average pass and more likely to put more hits / get more hands on a ball to cause a fumble.

There are things you can do to control unforced errors, but good teams don't have to press as hard.
 




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