9-3 tell me I’m wrong

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GopherJack said:
I like PJ and am optimistic he can right the ship, but I still have a bad taste in my mouth about how last season ended. Getting outscored 70-0 in the last two games makes me wonder, if it was a lack of talent, bad coaching, giving up by the coaches and players, or all of the above?
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lack of depth, decision to sacrifice wins for installing culture (relates to previous), injuries at key spots (best player on O and D), and the score differential changes quite a bit if you include the Nebraska game. Oline and QB were historically bad. Seems reasonable to conclude based on spring that Oline will be vastly improved, and depth and injuries as well. Should have a better year but I don't think we make the leap like OP thinks. Purdue and Iowa probably Ls.
 


Section2 said:
lack of depth, decision to sacrifice wins for installing culture (relates to previous), injuries at key spots (best player on O and D), and the score differential changes quite a bit if you include the Nebraska game. Oline and QB were historically bad. Seems reasonable to conclude based on spring that Oline will be vastly improved, and depth and injuries as well. Should have a better year but I don't think we make the leap like OP thinks. Purdue and Iowa probably Ls.
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Did we see an improved OL this spring?

I saw a lot of pressure on the QBs.... now maybe our DL is just that much better at bringing pressure (I hope).
 

Anyone who says they "know" what this team is going to do is bluffing.

I maintain that no one - and I mean no one - "knows" what this team is going to do. that includes the players and the coaches.

I could see this team winning anywhere from 4 to 8 games. It would take a complete collapse to win fewer than 4 games, and it would take everything - and I mean everything going right to win more than 8.

but, in 50 years of following Gopher football, the first game this season may be the biggest mystery ever. The Gophers could win by 30 points or lose by 30, and neither outcome would surprise me - because you can't be surprised when you have no idea what to expect.
 



won't this be the 1st time in the 9 year history of TCF Bank that Indiana comes here?
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Anyone who says they "know" what this team is going to do is bluffing.

I maintain that no one - and I mean no one - "knows" what this team is going to do. that includes the players and the coaches.

I could see this team winning anywhere from 4 to 8 games. It would take a complete collapse to win fewer than 4 games, and it would take everything - and I mean everything going right to win more than 8.

but, in 50 years of following Gopher football, the first game this season may be the biggest mystery ever. The Gophers could win by 30 points or lose by 30, and neither outcome would surprise me - because you can't be surprised when you have no idea what to expect.
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No doubt! Considering some of the mind boggling wins and losses we've seen over the years I don't know how anyone can claim to "know" how ANY Gophers team would do over the last 30 years.

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Like the folks last year who were so happy we were moving on from Mitch? ;)
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As I said last year, it can always get worse. It can't always get better, but it can ALWAYS be worse.

If QB play is as bad as it was last year Coach Fleck is in a world of hurt. That would mean none of the three recruits he brought in have panned out (yet). If so, he's going to be in a huge hole going into what are typically the seasons that decide if he stays or goes (2020/2021).

I think two of the three QB's are likely better from what little I've seen. Croft and Rhoda never gave me any confidence in the limited time I saw them before last year, so I was skeptical going in. I'm cautiously optimistic this year that at least they'll have competent play. Not great, just good. But that will be a huge step up. If you add some receivers that can actually catch a ball when it is thrown right to them, they could be in decent shape.

If you think about it, if you cut dropped balls in half, completely wild throws in half and OL mix-ups in half, the offense will be solid. That's not out of the realm of reality. It won't necessarily be easy and definitely won't be guaranteed, but it's possible.

But until they play the games, to say we know how any of the above will do, especially the three QB's who have not taken a snap in Division 1, is silly.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Anyone who says they "know" what this team is going to do is bluffing.

I maintain that no one - and I mean no one - "knows" what this team is going to do. that includes the players and the coaches.

I could see this team winning anywhere from 4 to 8 games. It would take a complete collapse to win fewer than 4 games, and it would take everything - and I mean everything going right to win more than 8.

but, in 50 years of following Gopher football, the first game this season may be the biggest mystery ever. The Gophers could win by 30 points or lose by 30, and neither outcome would surprise me - because you can't be surprised when you have no idea what to expect.
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Ok, I'll bite. NM State lost their #1 running back to graduation and I see nothing on their Roster to show that they have in any way reloaded. Last year they ranked 85th and we were 72nd at the end of the year. They were a mediocre team in a less than powerful conference. Yes they made a bowl and won...I'll give you that, but a loss at home by 30 points this year is not going to happen. I'll go on record for that.

When I talk about reloading, their classes have ranked between 125 - 129th over the last 3 years.
 

We'll be lucky to get to 6 wins. Bad defensive line and below average quarterback and receivers will take us out of most B1G games this season.
 



Rescooter said:
Ok, I'll bite. NM State lost their #1 running back to graduation and I see nothing on their Roster to show that they have in any way reloaded. Last year they ranked 85th and we were 72nd at the end of the year. They were a mediocre team in a less than powerful conference. Yes they made a bowl and won...I'll give you that, but a loss at home by 30 points this year is not going to happen. I'll go on record for that.

When I talk about reloading, their classes have ranked between 125 - 129th over the last 3 years.
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By both S&P+ and F/+ measures NMSU ranked better than us last year. Should we improve and beat them? Yep. Will we? I hope so? A lot can go wrong on the way to the ball.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
By both S&P+ and F/+ measures NMSU ranked better than us last year. Should we improve and beat them? Yep. Will we? I hope so? A lot can go wrong on the way to the ball.
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Even further behind Fresno I think.... worried about that game.
 

It’s not like NMSU was elite or anything, ranked 72nd or so by those measures...but we were 96th. Approaching Oregon State territory for a P5. We should be better (right?). Game 1 though...all bets off with a green team.
 

hungan1 said:
Not going to lie. The last two games of 2017 was horrendous. The Gopher's Chittty-Chitty Bang-Bang simply ran out of gas.

After the lost to Maryland (31-24) and Purdue (31-17), not even counting coming close against MSU (30-27), I felt like these games portend what the rest of the season was going to be like. IMHO, these should have been winnable games.

I remember thinking that they have turned the corner after routing Nebraska (54-21). Disheartening.

Looking at the season another way, they are learning thru failure.

We shall soon see what the "Year One" (Two :cool02:) version of the Gophers will be like soon!
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How can you get excited about wins or losses last year when there was that little B1G talent on the field? MSU was close in score only. MSU would have won by more if they had never thrown the ball. There was no way we should have been better than 5 wins last year with no DEs, no oline, no WRs, and no QB that fit the offense.
Teams are built, unless it is a helmet school that always has talent, through recruiting and development. Our recruiting on offense under the last staff has proven to be terrible, you can't wish that away. We are unlikely to "turn the corner" this year either, although I do expect to be better against good teams. Next year we should turn the corner.
I will be very happy if we reach 7-5.
 




9-3 = A
8-4 = B
7-5 = C
6-6 = D
6> = F

There were a couple of games last year that were toss ups (Maryland home, Purdue away) that fell the wrong way.

Maybe we get the karma the other way and get 2 out of 3 versus Iowa, Purdue, Northwestern for an 8-5 finish. 8 wins is a successful year for me. 7 is a passing grade.
 

I'm optimistic that we'll go 3-0 in non-conference, and past that I think I'd be able to make a better bet after the first 2 big ten games. If we win both, I think we can get to 7-8 wins. If we split the first 2, I think we'll get 6-7 wins. Lose both and I'll be praying for us to win 6...
 

So I'm a PJ skeptic. Love what he says, his passion, and his vision for the team...but am more than concerned about our season last year. Underperformed and under-executed at a scary level! That being said, our schedule is weak and we should be "OK". We should be able to win our 1st three games AT HOME...NMSU, Fresno State, and Ohio....if not, all hope is lost! We have four other winnable home games...Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, and Purdue. Should be able to win at least 2 of 4...none of those teams are great! We have two winnable road games...Illinois and Maryland....if we can get ONE ROAD WIN, I'll be relieved. Losses on the road to Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are expected. So my prediction is 6-6...not exactly "elite" but bowl-eligible nonetheless.
 

bfast said:
9-3 = A
8-4 = B
7-5 = C
6-6 = D
6> = F

There were a couple of games last year that were toss ups (Maryland home, Purdue away) that fell the wrong way.

Maybe we get the karma the other way and get 2 out of 3 versus Iowa, Purdue, Northwestern for an 8-5 finish. 8 wins is a successful year for me. 7 is a passing grade.
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I will assume you were there, I was there too. We were never really in the Maryland game. DJ Moore? Nice player. That running back, I forget his name but those guys were moving the ball on us all game. I am pretty sure that was the game that Winfield was injured and after that happened we were toast.

I do trust the team to improve a little bit this year as long as Winfield is on the field. QB play will be an upgrade too as we can't get much worse than last years version of QB's that never took a D1 snap. Croft played a bit the year before but really it was nothing. I say 6 wins is about right for this 2018 team. Maybe 7.
 

This year we know of PJ is All Talk Brew or 9 Win TC. This is year 2. Not year 0 or year-1. Year 2. Culture installed.
 

I don't know much about culture. Culture is as culture does? Maybe yes...maybe no. Time and the Big Ten w/l record will the story for the 2018 season, I predict.
 


A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Did we see an improved OL this spring?

I saw a lot of pressure on the QBs.... now maybe our DL is just that much better at bringing pressure (I hope).
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compared to last year? Yes, HUGE improvement, and beyond just the spring game. 2 serviceable units, and Faalele was dominant.
 

Some guy said:
NMSU - big W
Fresno - small W
Ohio - medium W
@ Maryland - small W
Iowa - small W
@ Ohio State - big L
@ Nebraska - small L
Indiana - small W
@ Illinois - medium W
Purdue - small W
Northwestern - small W
@ Wisconsin - medium L

Honestly I think we lose @ Wisconsin while playing for a share of the Big Ten West
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I think you are underestimating Maryland, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana and Northwestern. I don't think the Gophers win all 5 of those games. I am hopeful since 4 of those 5 are at home, but just don't see them winning all 5 of those games. 7-5 seems like a good guess.

I want to be positive and optimistic but the reality is that there are always 1 or 2 games on the schedule in which we should win on paper but we usually find a way to lose.

Just like last year, 6-6 would not surprise me and neither would 8-4. I would guess 7-5. The good thing is that Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa and Indiana are all at home. I think the key games are going to be at Maryland and vs Iowa to open up the Big Ten schedule. If you can go into those road games at Ohio State and Nebraska at 4-1 or 5-0, you will be in a good position to win 7 or 8 games. That is assuming you can take care of those non-conference home games.
 

I guess for me, wins and losses are almost secondary to how the team plays - how the team looks.

Does the team play like a team? Do they look like they have a clue? Can even a casual fan tell by watching that the team has a system, and the players understand the system and are at least trying to execute it? Are they hustling?

Does watching the team run its offense make you want to cringe, close your eyes, or just drink heavily?

Does watching the team on defense make you want to cheer, or vomit?

On one level, the team's record - for me - is not as important as watching a team and feeling good about the way they look.

Last year, there were games where I honestly questioned whether the team knew what it was doing, or what it was supposed to be doing.

I just don't want to sit through any more of those games this season. Please.
 

Based on a quick and dirty monte carlo (which is not terribly accurate, but I suppose it's better than spit balling):
I would give
1:9 Gophers will win fewer than 8 games this season
3:7 Gophers will win fewer than 7 games this season.
1:1 Gophers win fewer than than 6 games this season.
 

swelna said:
I'm optimistic that we'll go 3-0 in non-conference, and past that I think I'd be able to make a better bet after the first 2 big ten games. If we win both, I think we can get to 7-8 wins. If we split the first 2, I think we'll get 6-7 wins. Lose both and I'll be praying for us to win 6...
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FREEESSSSNOOOOOOO!!!!

Concerned about that one... I'm like the Fresno ghost.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
FREEESSSSNOOOOOOO!!!!

Concerned about that one... I'm like the Fresno ghost.
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I'm with you on that one. Depends on who's the QB though. I feel like Morgan will start, but I think Annexstad will be the solution. We will have to see how Fall Camp goes.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
FREEESSSSNOOOOOOO!!!!

Concerned about that one... I'm like the Fresno ghost.
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Hard team to figure out given the conference. It is interesting that each of Fresno's last three HCs bettered their predecessor's final year records in their first year...just sayin'.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Hard team to figure out given the conference. It is interesting that each of Fresno's last three HCs bettered their predecessor's final year records in their first year...just sayin'.
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Maybe easier to do in a conference like they're in?

But Tedford is a legit coach. I'm proud to say I thought he was a great pickup for them. He gave Cal their best recent years, since then they've been forgettable.
 

hello-world said:
Based on a quick and dirty monte carlo (which is not terribly accurate, but I suppose it's better than spit balling):
I would give
9:1 Gophers will win fewer than 8 games this season
7:3 Gophers will win fewer than 7 games this season.
1:1 Gophers win fewer than than 6 games this season.
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Good thing you don't run a casino- you're giving higher odds for something more likely to happen!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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