High School Talent in Minnesota

Pretty flawed premise. As pointed out, does not explain teams like Wisc and would suggest schools like Illinois, AZ, ASU, MO, Rutgers, North Carolina, etc should be perennial top programs.

Players in Illinois have multiple schools close by they can attend: Illinois, Northwestern, ND and Iowa are all within a few hours depending on where someone lives in Illinois. Arizona and ASU are hurt by the fact that players who stay home can attend either school.

I don't know all of the reasons why recruits in NJ, North Carolina and Missouri tend to go elsewhere. Rutgers is probably self-explanatory as they have rarely had a good team. My point is that the Gophers do a good job of keeping recruits that we want in-state, and having classes like 2016 each year would make us significantly better.
 

If this state all of a sudden started to produce much more talent than we've ever had before then we probably would struggle to get a lot of those guys however if we would have always had a high level of talent in this state since the beginning of the program as well as after our Rose Bowl run in the 60's then I bet we would have been able to stay good for longer and been able to get a lot of those guys.

Why is this? If we get commitments from 70% of the in-state players we offer (guessing at the number, I don't know what it is) why would you expect the percentage to be lower if we had more P5 recruits?
 

(A) I disagree with your premise. Your examples are Maryland and Indiana - - - the two programs in the Big 10 worse than ours. So, the correlation between the state's HS football and the local U's success doesn't seem to be very strong. You also kick out states with better programs (for no real reason) like WI, Iowa, and Nebraska. So, I think your premise is beyond shaky.

However, to answer your question, it's complicated. I think it's largely that we do not produce very many D1 football players outside of the metro. We really only have about 3-4 solid HS conferences.

For example - - in WI:
2018 Top 5 - - only 1 player is from Milwaukee metro area
2019 Top 5 - 2 of the players are from the Milwaukee metro area
2017 Top 5 - only 1 player is from the Milwaukee metro area

In MN:
2019 Top 5 - 4 players from TC metro
2018 Top 10 - 8 players from the TC metro area
2017 Top 5 - 4 players are from the TC metro area

I realize that there are differences in the states (MN's population is more consolidated), but rural MN is simply not producing many players. This could have to do with hockey, culture, etc. I am not sure.

As far as comparing to states like Maryland and Indiana - that's bizarre. Those are states that are completely different from MN in a lot of ways - - culture, demographics, economy, etc. All of that stuff plays into producing college football players. I think it would make much more sense to compare MN to states that are somewhat similar (education, demographics, culture, etc.).

Having lots of talent in MD and Indiana hasn't translated into success for those programs. 100% agree. My point is that we end up with a much higher percentage of in-state players who we offer than those schools, and if we produced more talent, our success would increase significantly.

The lack of D-1 players coming out of rural Minnesota definitely hurts. I'm guessing there is maybe 1 every 2-3 years that is a P5 recruit.
 

Having lots of talent in MD and Indiana hasn't translated into success for those programs. 100% agree. My point is that we end up with a much higher percentage of in-state players who we offer than those schools, and if we produced more talent, our success would increase significantly.

The lack of D-1 players coming out of rural Minnesota definitely hurts. I'm guessing there is maybe 1 every 2-3 years that is a P5 recruit.

There are more D1 players in rural MN than star eaters give credit. NDSU takes these guys and some make the NFL. Joe Haeg from Brainerd for example. Point is Minnesota high schools have more talent than we think.
 

Why is this? If we get commitments from 70% of the in-state players we offer (guessing at the number, I don't know what it is) why would you expect the percentage to be lower if we had more P5 recruits?

We would definitely still get a lot of mid to high 3 star guys and some low 4 star guys but I'm saying we would struggle to get the top tier guys that have options to play almost anywhere, the Carroll, Cornell or Henderson type guys. If Minnesota all of a sudden started to produce a lot more of those types of players, we would still struggle to get most of them.

It would be like what has happened with basketball recruiting since the 2014 class. We can still occasionally get some of the Oturu/Coffey caliber players but we have no chance with the Tyus, Vaugn, Trent, Tre, Hurt, Suggs caliber guys, the guys who are top 10 in the country. Maybe if this state had been producing that caliber of talent in basketball for the last several decades then we would have perhaps landed some of those guys and built a much stronger tradition over the years. That would have in turn helped up land the guys I listed but since there has been such a spike in talent that just recently occurred, we have little chance at getting those guys.
 


Why is this? If we get commitments from 70% of the in-state players we offer (guessing at the number, I don't know what it is) why would you expect the percentage to be lower if we had more P5 recruits?

Because some of the players will play the same position and it will be harder to get multiple players at the same position.
 

Bottom line, the Gophers have to string more wins and win a championship or two before the upper echelon players can start considering the Gophers seriously.

It won't happen overnight because it takes time to "rebuild" (yes, rebuild) a program under PJ Fleck. Their shot is to incrementally if not get lucky and get better each of the next two or three recruiting cycles.

I think it can be done in MN. The Gophers have to start showing results in the next couple of years before they make believers out of a whole slew of MN fans.

Wiscy under ALvarez went 1-10 in 1990, 5-6 in 1991 & 1992 before they went 10-1-1 with a win at the Rose Bowl.
 

There are more D1 players in rural MN than star eaters give credit. NDSU takes these guys and some make the NFL. Joe Haeg from Brainerd for example. Point is Minnesota high schools have more talent than we think.

Of course there are examples of rural kids that are really good football players. However, even schools like NDSU, have more metro players and have found more success finding the kid's missed from the metro area (Marcus Williams, Billy Turner, Carlton Littlejohn, Zach Vraa, CJ Smith, John Crockett).
 

I would think a lot of the rural schools who have sleeper athletes don't have the resources like metro area schools like an excellent weight program and equipment.

These kids when they go to a place like NDSU, they bloom late and some become great players. They probably would not have been able to do the same thing if they had gone straight to MN where all the other kids are way ahead in weight training and development.

Now, if they are allowed to transfer to the Gophers after they have developed that would be something.

So, yeah I think the Gopher potentially miss out on a few small town gems.
 



I would think a lot of the rural schools who have sleeper athletes don't have the resources like metro area schools like an excellent weight program and equipment.

These kids when they go to a place like NDSU, they bloom late and some become great players. They probably would not have been able to do the same thing if they had gone straight to MN where all the other kids are way ahead in weight training and development.

Now, if they are allowed to transfer to the Gophers after they have developed that would be something.

So, yeah I think the Gopher potentially miss out on a few small town gems.

This is possible, but I'm not even talking about the really small towns. I am talking about towns like Mankato, Duluth (when is the last player to come out of Duluth?), St. Cloud, Rochester, Albert Lea, Austin, etc.

I'm not trying to rip on the out state and some of my favorite Gophers are from outside the metro (Decker, Sherels, Setterstrom, etc.). We just have less D1 football players from these towns outside of the metro. Maybe it's a hockey thing.
 

Up North where my nephew grew up in the Iron Range, it is all about hockey. There is baseball and basketball, but the emphasis and pride is hockey.
 

Virtually no one is passionate about college football the way they are about high school and collegiate hockey in this state. That lack of a fundamental, universal interest is a very real roadblock to success and I don't know if it will ever change.
 

Minnesota, the Dakotas, Main, Vermont, New Hampshire, Upstate New York, parts of Wisconsin and Michigan where hockey is king are part of the Dead Zone of college football recruiting.
 



Minnesota, the Dakotas, Main, Vermont, New Hampshire, Upstate New York, parts of Wisconsin and Michigan where hockey is king are part of the Dead Zone of college football recruiting.

The Dakotas? Hockey is virtually non-existent in South Dakota.
 

Minnesota, the Dakotas, Main, Vermont, New Hampshire, Upstate New York, parts of Wisconsin and Michigan where hockey is king are part of the Dead Zone of college football recruiting.

In what sense is hockey "King" in any of those states? It's definitely not participation. How many B1G level athletes are choosing hockey over football in Minnesota?
 

3-Star & up MN recruits that committed to the U:

2018: 6/11
2017: 5/11
2016: 8/16 (1/1 4-Star)
2015: 2/7
2014: 3/7 (1/3 4-Stars)
2013: 1/5 (0/1 4-Star)
2012: 7/9
2011: 5/8
2010: 2/7 (1/1 4-Star, 0/1 5-Star)
2009: 5/7 (1/2 4-Stars)

Total: 44/88 with 4/9 on 4 & 5 Stars

EDIT: A quick glance at Iowa and Wisconsin over the last five years shows similar results. Iowa produces about 8-12 recruits and keeps a third to half, with Iowa State picking up most of the rest. Wisconsin produces 12-16 recruits, but only keeps 4-7 on average.
 

3-Star & up MN recruits that committed to the U:

2018: 6/11
2017: 5/11
2016: 8/16 (1/1 4-Star)
2015: 2/7
2014: 3/7 (1/3 4-Stars)
2013: 1/5 (0/1 4-Star)
2012: 7/9
2011: 5/8
2010: 2/7 (1/1 4-Star, 0/1 5-Star)
2009: 5/7 (1/2 4-Stars)

Total: 44/88 with 4/9 on 4 & 5 Stars

EDIT: A quick glance at Iowa and Wisconsin over the last five years shows similar results. Iowa produces about 8-12 recruits and keeps a third to half, with Iowa State picking up most of the rest. Wisconsin produces 12-16 recruits, but only keeps 4-7 on average.

Thanks for doing the work of pulling this together. It looks like you took the number of commitments from all players in the State regardless of whether they had an offer, correct?
 


Thanks for doing the work of pulling this together. It looks like you took the number of commitments from all players in the State regardless of whether they had an offer, correct?

All 3-Star & up players who made commitments regardless of whether the U offered them. Most were offered from what I saw, but there were a handful that ended up at schools like NDSU. There were 2 players who had no commitment listed. Possible they never played college ball, or their profile was never updated. Every class had about twice as many in-state players when including 2-Star players (some of whom were Gophers), but most went to small schools. Didn't list PWO's either.
 

Updated list of MN recruits who were offered* by the Gophers and those who committed:

Year: All U offers (4+ Stars) -- Top Recruits Notes

2019: 1/3 (0/1) --- Top 2/3 of those already committed staying
2018: 5/5 (0/0) --- Top 5 stayed
2017: 5/8 (0/0) --- Top 2/3 left
2016: 10/13 (1/1) - Top 2/3 left
2015: 2/4 (0/1) --- Top 2 left
2014: 3/5 (1/3) --- Top 2/3 left
2013: 1/4 (0/1) --- Top 3 left
2012: 10/12 (0/0) - Top 2 left
2011: 6/9 (0/0) --- Top 2/3 left
2010: 3/8 (1/2) --- Top 5/7 left
2009: 5/7 (1/2) --- #1 left, next 6 stayed

Total: 51/78 (4/11)

* - 24/7 is the website I used as reference, and in some cases the offer lists were no longer included on their profile. Offers may have been rescinded as well. I did not include a couple of players who didn't qualify academically and are listed at Community Colleges. That's my margin of error.
 


There are more D1 players in rural MN than star eaters give credit. NDSU takes these guys and some make the NFL. Joe Haeg from Brainerd for example. Point is Minnesota high schools have more talent than we think.

If there were, the numbers would show it. Hockey drains the talent away.
 

If there were, the numbers would show it. Hockey drains the talent away.

Most of NDSU's best players from MN are metro kids.

I don't know why NDSU gets thought of as this plucky rural schools that put a team together of farm boys.
 

Most of NDSU's best players from MN are metro kids.

I don't know why NDSU gets thought of as this plucky rural schools that put a team together of farm boys.

I mentioned it another post but Craig Bohl would have taken the U job when it was offered to Kill. How does this Craig Bohl guy get Carson Wentz and Josh Allen to be 1st round draft picks within 3 years of each other?
 

I don't doubt for a second that hockey is a factor here, but I have a very hard time seeing it as the biggest factor, for a few reasons: (1) hockey's popularity varies widely across the state. In Roseau/Warroad, the Iron Range, the Duluth area, and the wealthier suburbs, hockey has been and remains very popular, but that's not nearly the case in most of the rest of the state. You don't hear of a lot of DI/pro hockey players coming from places like Alexandria, Mankato, Winona, Willmar, or New Ulm, for example. In 2015-16 (most recent stats I could find), 13,542 boys played HS basketball in MN, while only 5,792 played hockey. (2) hockey is more and more a rich kid's sport, with the advent of year-round play, and this is bringing down the number of kids playing, especially in the city and in inner-ring suburbs. Thirty-five years ago, Columbia Heights, Richfield, and Cooper all had competitive high school hockey programs; none of them even field a team any more. (3) There are exceptions - as mentioned, guys like Zach Budish and Anders Lee, and had they focused on it guys like Nick Bjugstad, Paul Martin, and Blake Wheeler might have had a future in football - but a lot of the high end hockey players Minnesota produces would be unlikely to be successful in football due to size limitations. Zach Parise, for example, is listed at 5'11' but is probably shorter than that; Jake Guentzel weighs about 160 and it's hard to envision him in big-time football.

As is the case with most things, there isn't a single cause for this perceived problem; instead, there are a ton of contributing factors (among them the unfortunate fact that youth developmental programs are poorest in the inner city where the most African Americans reside, a lack of a year-round football culture, single-sport specialization, and yes, hockey, among others).
 

True, but that hasn’t stopped Oregon, Nebraska, etc. from having competitive programs. Past performance, and recruiting allows teams to bring in players from outside the state. Those are directly related to coaching. It is like they say in all sports, recruiting, recruiting, recruiting is what builds a program. PJ gives us a new angle on recruiting.


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Of course there are many factors, and I agree with the people saying we need the right coach,etc., because I think it is possible that we can have a strong program. That being said, the fact that we don't have many 3 star and up recruits is a big factor. I think what really compounds it and makes us somewhat unique compared to most other states with similar population is how far away we are from states that produce a lot of talent. We border Ontario. Manitoba, the Dakotas, Iowa and Wisconsin. None of these states produce a lot of great players either. Nebraska is at least bordering Missouri. Oregon borders California. Wisconsin borders Illinois. We are kind of on an island up here.
 

What is Minnesota like in terms of youth sports programs? In Kansas City there are year round leagues for kids as young as 3-4 years old. Baseball, basketball, and soccer run year round and there are tons of football programs that are offered as well.

I’m 37 now and growing up in rural Minnesota we had very few sports. Basketball started in 5th grade and in the summer we had little league baseball. That’s it. I just now have kids starting to hit sports (daughter#1 started gymnastics last year at 3 and starting soccer and jiu jitsu this year at 4).

I’m just trying to see what the youth sports programs are like up there compared to Missouri as it seems we crank out a fair number of D1 talent in just the Kansas City metro area itself.
 

Just thought I would post that we had our 7th Class of 2020 player pick up a BCS offer as Winona DE Aaron Witt (6'5 230) picked up an offer from Iowa State. Earlier in May Buffalo QB Aidan Bouman (6'4 200 and son of former Vikings QB Todd Bouman) picked up an offer from Iowa State as well. Helps that former Minnesota prep from Watertown-Mayer, Colby Kracht, who played college ball at NDSCS and Toledo is recruiting coordinator and recruiting state.

Amazing to see 7 sophomores....now rising juniors in the state with BCS offers. In 18 years of tracking recruiting, this is a first. Plus there is some more outstanding talent in the class that has BCS potential.

https://main.gopherhole.com/page/show/3704128-class-of-2020-minnesota-hs-football-recruits
 

I don't doubt for a second that hockey is a factor here, but I have a very hard time seeing it as the biggest factor, for a few reasons: (1) hockey's popularity varies widely across the state. In Roseau/Warroad, the Iron Range, the Duluth area, and the wealthier suburbs, hockey has been and remains very popular, but that's not nearly the case in most of the rest of the state. You don't hear of a lot of DI/pro hockey players coming from places like Alexandria, Mankato, Winona, Willmar, or New Ulm, for example. In 2015-16 (most recent stats I could find), 13,542 boys played HS basketball in MN, while only 5,792 played hockey. (2) hockey is more and more a rich kid's sport, with the advent of year-round play, and this is bringing down the number of kids playing, especially in the city and in inner-ring suburbs. Thirty-five years ago, Columbia Heights, Richfield, and Cooper all had competitive high school hockey programs; none of them even field a team any more. (3) There are exceptions - as mentioned, guys like Zach Budish and Anders Lee, and had they focused on it guys like Nick Bjugstad, Paul Martin, and Blake Wheeler might have had a future in football - but a lot of the high end hockey players Minnesota produces would be unlikely to be successful in football due to size limitations. Zach Parise, for example, is listed at 5'11' but is probably shorter than that; Jake Guentzel weighs about 160 and it's hard to envision him in big-time football.

As is the case with most things, there isn't a single cause for this perceived problem; instead, there are a ton of contributing factors (among them the unfortunate fact that youth developmental programs are poorest in the inner city where the most African Americans reside, a lack of a year-round football culture, single-sport specialization, and yes, hockey, among others).

That's 5,792 players that other states don't have to contend with. If 10% are elite, that's 579 players that are likely not playing football. If 10% of that are phenomenal athletes, that's 58 that aren't playing football.

There you go. It's hockey.
 

Just thought I would post that we had our 7th Class of 2020 player pick up a BCS offer as Winona DE Aaron Witt (6'5 230) picked up an offer from Iowa State. Earlier in May Buffalo QB Aidan Bouman (6'4 200 and son of former Vikings QB Todd Bouman) picked up an offer from Iowa State as well. Helps that former Minnesota prep from Watertown-Mayer, Colby Kracht, who played college ball at NDSCS and Toledo is recruiting coordinator and recruiting state.

Amazing to see 7 sophomores....now rising juniors in the state with BCS offers. In 18 years of tracking recruiting, this is a first. Plus there is some more outstanding talent in the class that has BCS potential.

https://main.gopherhole.com/page/show/3704128-class-of-2020-minnesota-hs-football-recruits

Great news and thanks for the analysis. Hopefully classes like this become the norm and it pays dividends for us.
 




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