Dienhart: Way-too-early look at 2018-19 Big Ten standings (#11. Minnesota)

You said theyd be top 4 2017-2018 too. Got all pissy when i suggested their streak was in damger and touted pritzl as a better koening

Of course! That's the homer in me! I don't think I got pissy but it does happen. Pritzl is actually a really good shooter..Was higher rated coming in. He is a real tweener 2-3 not a point like Koenig. Prolly a bad comparison on my part. We have been conditioned to believe over the last 20 years that a natural development would happen. It didn't happen to a huge Jr class (5). then we had the season ending injuries to two starters and the frosh Davison playing point as a 2 guard with one arm! Making excuses is a gift.
 

We're going to have to agree to disagree. Let's compare the two last NCAA tournament teams (2012-2013 and 2016-2017):

2012-2013: 21-13 overall, 8-10 Big Ten (8th place), lost in the first round of the Big Ten tourney, 11 seed in the NCAA tourney (upset UCLA in the first round, lost to Florida in the second round)

2016-2017: 24-10 overall, 11-7 in the Big Ten (4th place), lost in the semifinals of the Big Ten tourney, 5 seed in the NCAA tourney (was upset by Middle Tennessee in the first round)

Some might pick 2012-2013 solely because of the NCAA tournament win, but I'd take 2016-2017. I still wouldn't consider either of those years great.


You could have added that UCLA lost it's best player going into that game and so a lot of the experts were actually predicting either a Gopher win, or a much closer game than they otherwise would have. And Minnesota lost one of it's most important players before that game with MTSU.
 

You could have added that UCLA lost it's best player going into that game and so a lot of the experts were actually predicting either a Gopher win, or a much closer game than they otherwise would have. And Minnesota lost one of it's most important players before that game with MTSU.

It is amazing the lengths that some people go to to make winning a tournament game sound less impressive than losing to 12 seed mtsu. And mtsu was not some Cinderella team that went on a big run, they lost their very next game.
 

It is amazing the lengths that some people go to to make winning a tournament game sound less impressive than losing to 12 seed mtsu. And mtsu was not some Cinderella team that went on a big run, they lost their very next game.

They weren’t comparing the two games. They were comparing the two seasons.

To me, post season success is a horrible judge of a coaches success for a program like Minnesota. Regular season success is the measuring stick.

Pitino is probably coaching for his job next year.
Tubby proved himself to be unworthy of the position by never finishing over .500


Tubby might be better than Pitino. But he was a failure. Comparing the two of them is a futile waste of time. Evaluate them individually.

Tubby = failure
Pitino = not fired yet but one bad season away from being a failure....since he still has a job, he could still hypothetically redeem himself
 

How good could this team be if we got a couple of GT guards of Akeem Springs caliber? Top 20 nationally? Kind of exciting to think about. Big pressure on Pitino to make it happen.
 


They weren’t comparing the two games. They were comparing the two seasons.

To me, post season success is a horrible judge of a coaches success for a program like Minnesota. Regular season success is the measuring stick.

Pitino is probably coaching for his job next year.
Tubby proved himself to be unworthy of the position by never finishing over .500


Tubby might be better than Pitino. But he was a failure. Comparing the two of them is a futile waste of time. Evaluate them individually.

Tubby = failure
Pitino = not fired yet but one bad season away from being a failure....since he still has a job, he could still hypothetically redeem himself

The post I responded to referred exclusively to the two tournament games.

Also, post season success is the most important measuring stick. The whole point of this is to get our program to a point where we have a shot at the national championship. Teams have won national championships with mediocre regular seasons and middling seeds. You can't win a national championship if you wet the bed in an early round game.
 

You could have added that UCLA lost it's best player going into that game and so a lot of the experts were actually predicting either a Gopher win, or a much closer game than they otherwise would have. And Minnesota lost one of it's most important players before that game with MTSU.

You could also add that the 2012-13 team beat 5 ranked teams including the number 1 team in the country and spent 8 weeks in the AP top 15. Or you could mention that the team we lost to in the NCAAs that year (Florida) went to the Elite Eight.

The 2016-17 team beat 2 ranked teams with the highest being 15th ranked Purdue and was never ranked in the AP top 15. The team we lost to in the NCAAs that year (MTSU) was eliminated in the Round of 32.

Doesn't mean I don't appreciate the 2016-17 team. We had a really good year. 2012-13 was just better.
 

2012-2013 was playing their best ball at beginning of season while 2016-2017 was playing their best at end of the season. I'm not sure which team had more talent, but 2016-17 was the better team at tourney time.
 

If Pitino can't get the Gophers into the tournament next year (assuming Murphy, Coffey, and all other expected players return and play most/all of the games) then he should be canned the moment the season ends and not a second later.

This past year frankly deserved it but he bought enough good will from 2016 and dealt with enough BS that another chance is warranted. None of us should be happy with his tenure so far, especially given the legit talent he's had to work with at times.

Good will? Is that what we are calling being held hostage by a $4.05 million buyout on a contract that should never have been signed off on by Kahler? smh

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and a while. 2016 only happened because RP was striking out as a recruiter. Other friends of the MBB program found players to transfer in because of his abject failure to recruit big men who didn't need to be coached up.


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2012-2013 was playing their best ball at beginning of season while 2016-2017 was playing their best at end of the season. I'm not sure which team had more talent, but 2016-17 was the better team at tourney time.

Interesting take, given that the 2012-13 team won a Tourney game as an 11 seed and the 2016-17 lost as a 5 seed.
 

Interesting take, given that the 2012-13 team won a Tourney game as an 11 seed and the 2016-17 lost as a 5 seed.

That 11 seed team got to play against a UCLA team that had just lost arguably its best player and then they got whooped by Florida.

That 5 seed team LOST one of its most important players. And the 12 seed they played shot the lights out, same as they did vs MSU the year before.
 

Interesting take, given that the 2012-13 team won a Tourney game as an 11 seed and the 2016-17 lost as a 5 seed.

Win and loss records show 2016 - 2017 was better second half of the season and big ten tourney and it wasn't even real close. How would have 2012-2013 done against UCLA without Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman, and if UCLA was at full strength?
 

I'm a big Pitino believer. But if the Gophers aren't in the Big Dance next season, keeping him can't be justified.

I'm convinced, however, that they will make the Big Dance. The roster balance will be better, the dead wood has been cast aside, and the talent is above average. And that just sounded like a description of Lake Wobegone.

I agree with this take, I also think that Murphy, Amir, McBrayer, and IW (I think he will be much improved) are good enough to have them on the brink of qualifying alone. Throw in some quality minutes by the freshmen and hopefully a solid grad transfer and they will be dancing.
 



I agree with this take, I also think that Murphy, Amir, McBrayer, and IW (I think he will be much improved) are good enough to have them on the brink of qualifying alone. Throw in some quality minutes by the freshmen and hopefully a solid grad transfer and they will be dancing.

If IW goes down the team might not win any games. Reminds of when we were dependent upon Nolen. Right now we’re two guards short
 

I just don’t think we have the shooters to compete next year unless our roster really changes over the next few months. Losing Mason and even Harris really hurts our guard depth.
 

I just don’t think we have the shooters to compete next year unless our roster really changes over the next few months. Losing Mason and even Harris really hurts our guard depth.

How awesome would it be to have Coffey run the point with mcbrayer/ klaushaur sg, with curry, Oturu, stockman - that would be a big lineup to shoot over.
 

Don't ever recall a Gopher season where the hopes are tied so strongly to what hasn't arrived yet.
 


That 11 seed team got to play against a UCLA team that had just lost arguably its best player and then they got whooped by Florida.

That 5 seed team LOST one of its most important players. And the 12 seed they played shot the lights out, same as they did vs MSU the year before.

I've posted on this before. UCLA had something like 5 future NBA players even without Jordan Adams. They were a very good team that played a poor game. It's our only Tournament win in 28 years and I'm not going to go out of my way to discount it like so many on here want to. If that team had been coached by Pitino, you'd have written a 6-paragraph post about how awesome that UCLA win was. And the Florida team that they got "whooped" by went on to the Elite Eight, while MTSU lost its next game.
 


Good will? Is that what we are calling being held hostage by a $4.05 million buyout on a contract that should never have been signed off on by Kahler? smh

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and a while. 2016 only happened because RP was striking out as a recruiter. Other friends of the MBB program found players to transfer in because of his abject failure to recruit big men who didn't need to be coached up.


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Glad to have Richard for this year because he did put together his best roster on paper and should see it through. They could not have attracted a sure fire superstar coach. It should not be about that 4 plus million buyout as that is really tiny compared to many of the basketball coaches. Several have rollover buyouts of north of 17 million !
 

Glad to have Richard for this year because he did put together his best roster on paper and should see it through. They could not have attracted a sure fire superstar coach. It should not be about that 4 plus million buyout as that is really tiny compared to many of the basketball coaches. Several have rollover buyouts of north of 17 million !

Thank you. It seems to me the pro-Pitino posters (not saying you are or aren't) are willing to deal in nuance. We give credit for Pitino's accomplishments while saying he must improve in areas. I'm not even willing to wait until next season, but contend he must hit on these three incoming recruits.
However, many, not all, who don't support Pitino give no credit for anything. Anything that might appear to be a positive is somehow explained away. Nuance is not allowed. The sense is that it would be worth it to have a lousy season just to get rid of Pitino.
The glaring example is the last two seasons. How about giving Pitino some credit for a 4th place big ten finish and semifinal big ten tourney (2016-2017)? Doesnt Pitino deserve a little credit for teams that likely would have made the final 32 (2016-2017) and at least a tournament appearance (2017-2018) without all the injuries and the Lynch suspension? The overwhelming answer seems to be no. The total focus instead becomes such as the Gaston/Konate mistake.
Doesn't seem fair.
 

Thank you. It seems to me the pro-Pitino posters (not saying you are or aren't) are willing to deal in nuance. We give credit for Pitino's accomplishments while saying he must improve in areas. I'm not even willing to wait until next season, but contend he must hit on these three incoming recruits.
However, many, not all, who don't support Pitino give no credit for anything. Anything that might appear to be a positive is somehow explained away. Nuance is not allowed. The sense is that it would be worth it to have a lousy season just to get rid of Pitino.
The glaring example is the last two seasons. How about giving Pitino some credit for a 4th place big ten finish and semifinal big ten tourney (2016-2017)? Doesnt Pitino deserve a little credit for teams that likely would have made the final 32 (2016-2017) and at least a tournament appearance (2017-2018) without all the injuries and the Lynch suspension? The overwhelming answer seems to be no. The total focus instead becomes such as the Gaston/Konate mistake.
Doesn't seem fair.

I for one have been quick to credit him for 2016-17, but the question is whether that's a harbinger of days to come or a blip similar to Monson's 2004-05 season, a success that ultimately was not sustained.
 

I for one have been quick to credit him for 2016-17, but the question is whether that's a harbinger of days to come or a blip similar to Monson's 2004-05 season, a success that ultimately was not sustained.

Very true.
 

I for one have been quick to credit him for 2016-17, but the question is whether that's a harbinger of days to come or a blip similar to Monson's 2004-05 season, a success that ultimately was not sustained.
Until he proves otherwise, 2016-2017 gets credited as a blind squirrel finding a nut.

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Until he proves otherwise, 2016-2017 gets credited as a blind squirrel finding a nut.

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I personally think Richard is better than a blind squirrel. What happened is that everything came together: Mason being better than a 3-star; Lynch turning out to be good; getting Springs to come here. We were on the edge of disaster every time Lynch got into foul trouble because we gave two scholarships to non-players, but we skated by. This past year those chickens came home to roost, and there wasn't any redundancy in the roster (not that many teams could have survived this much misfortune). These next two seasons will tell the tale. (I'm the one who doesn't think they'll sniff the NCAA's next year, nor do I think they'll necessarily have to for Richard to keep his job.)
 

This projection has Gophers 6th in Big Ten

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At this point, I think it's almost impossible to make a realistic prediction about next year, because there are so many unknowns.

If everything (or almost everything) breaks favorably for the Gophers, I could seem them in the top half of the conference and at least an NCAA bubble team.

If everything (or almost everything) goes bad, I could see them playing on the 1st day of the conference tournament again.

if things go 50/50 (some good, some bad) - middle of the conference and an NIT team.

but, right now, who can say? we don't know how well the FR will play. we don't know how well Stockman will play. we don't know how Curry will look as he returns from injury. we don't know how Coffey and McBrayer will look returning from injury. We don't know who may join the team as Spring recruits. A lot of questions to answer during the non-conference schedule. Hopefully, the questions are answered before they move into conference play.
 

At this point, I think it's almost impossible to make a realistic prediction about next year, because there are so many unknowns.

If everything (or almost everything) breaks favorably for the Gophers, I could seem them in the top half of the conference and at least an NCAA bubble team.

If everything (or almost everything) goes bad, I could see them playing on the 1st day of the conference tournament again.

if things go 50/50 (some good, some bad) - middle of the conference and an NIT team.

but, right now, who can say? we don't know how well the FR will play. we don't know how well Stockman will play. we don't know how Curry will look as he returns from injury. we don't know how Coffey and McBrayer will look returning from injury. We don't know who may join the team as Spring recruits. A lot of questions to answer during the non-conference schedule. Hopefully, the questions are answered before they move into conference play.

Yes, that is all very plausible. I particularly admired your sensitivity analysis with the "what if" scenarios. One of them is likely very close to what will happen.
 




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