Dienhart: Way-too-early look at 2018-19 Big Ten standings (#11. Minnesota)

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OK, sorry to pick on you. I just sense a lot of denial of the situation this team and next year's roster is in. This squad will be an extreme long shot to make the Field, and people are claiming that's it's actually likely, and that if they don't pull it off they'll fire the coach. That feels like desperation./QUOTE]

Or a straw man argument to make a case against the coach. I'm more optimistic than you, but anyone calling it a sure thing that we are in the tournament is delusional. I see a lot of similarities from two years ago when too many people saw the disaster season as a harbinger of the future when the team was much better than the record indicated and had a good recruiting class coming in. Call me contrarian, but I was not as optimistic about this season when Curry went down.

I think next year's team will be pretty good. Hopefully tournament good, but one never knows. A lot of question marks in the B1G next year. I like the experience in Coffey and McBrayer and Murphy. I worry about relying too much on a freshman big man, but I think our inside game will be leaps and bounds above this year. I don't like putting pressure on one recruit, but I think the "grad transfer" recruit will be a major factor in how well this team does next year.
 

Add Penn State to the list, they lose what one starter from the NIT championship team, the conference is going to be so balanced next year that 11 could end up in the top 4 and vice versa for a few of the top teams.

That's what I think, too. Conference a toss up next year between a lot of the teams. ESPN just put out a way too early top 25 and have 12.MSU, 13.Michigan, 24. Purdue. I guess Purdue has a 17.5 ppg Dartmouth grad transfer. I still don't see how they can be so highly rated - maybe they had a lot of fire power waiting on their bench this year.
 

Bleacher Report : 8. Michigan, 16. Penn State, 19. MSU, 22. Maryland. This must be pre-Tony Carr leaving and assuming Wagner returns.
 


Or a straw man argument to make a case against the coach. I'm more optimistic than you, but anyone calling it a sure thing that we are in the tournament is delusional. I see a lot of similarities from two years ago when too many people saw the disaster season as a harbinger of the future when the team was much better than the record indicated and had a good recruiting class coming in. Call me contrarian, but I was not as optimistic about this season when Curry went down.

I think next year's team will be pretty good. Hopefully tournament good, but one never knows. A lot of question marks in the B1G next year. I like the experience in Coffey and McBrayer and Murphy. I worry about relying too much on a freshman big man, but I think our inside game will be leaps and bounds above this year. I don't like putting pressure on one recruit, but I think the "grad transfer" recruit will be a major factor in how well this team does next year.

No question about it: a kick-butt grad transfer changes the complexion of things greatly. That said, it won't change the fact that we're counting on a freshman starting center, a rusty Curry and a sophomore starting point guard (barring a new starter by grad transfer, which would be discouraging to Washington and ultimately slow his development).
 


Failure to live up to expectations in year 6 is not necessarily the problem. The fact that the expectations are so low for year 6 is the problem. The credit/blame for the roster as constructed and how it performs falls at the feet of one man.

The part that troubles me is the slow, almost imperceptible erosion of expectations, to the point where they're now shockingly low. For example, I've posted before about the fatalism on this board regarding recruiting, citing the fact that, by this time in his tenure, Monson had gotten one local 5-star recruit; meanwhile, the conventional wisdom emerging is that doing so is now a pipe dream, even though we have way more 5-stars coming out of these parts and way better facilities.
 

The part that troubles me is the slow, almost imperceptible erosion of expectations, to the point where they're now shockingly low. For example, I've posted before about the fatalism on this board regarding recruiting, citing the fact that, by this time in his tenure, Monson had gotten one local 5-star recruit; meanwhile, the conventional wisdom emerging is that doing so is now a pipe dream, even though we have way more 5-stars coming out of these parts and way better facilities.

Disagree. I would argue that last year was such a distaster that it just feels like expectations are low. Last year expectations were sky high and it was the first year since Haskins that a Gopher Basketball team had the potential to be a legitimate Sweet 16 team. Last year was an absolute barrage of problems that were out of Pitino's control. No team, with the exception of maybe a Blue Blood program could have handled what we had to deal with last year.

Whether you want to ignore it or not, Pitino has recruited very well with the exception of his first two classes and I would much rather have a Coffey and Oturu over a one and done Humphries. If this year goes according to plan and players stay healthy, we land a good grad transfer, and Matz and Oturu can platoon the center role... I really do believe that we will have a better than .500 record in B10 play and be very much in the picture for a tourney birth and all this talk about diminishing expectations will be put to rest. I have been wrong before, but I would rather be an optimist especially when there is plenty of logical reasons to be optimistic.
 

I strongly feel that if you give him next year - which we are - you have to give him the following year as well. It's a package deal. Next year is a rebuilding year.

But we won't. Which is why I would have pulled the plug already.
 

Assuming health, an attempt to rank Gophers by position group in big ten at this point in time :
Gopher frontcourt - Near to or at top of big ten
Wings - Middle of big ten, if not better
Point - Near bottom of big ten

Is it possible for us to get to middle of the pack at the point guard position? Is it possible for us to find effective depth at the wing? If the answers to these questions is yes, we should be a threat for a top 4 conference finish.
 




Disagree. I would argue that last year was such a distaster that it just feels like expectations are low. Last year expectations were sky high and it was the first year since Haskins that a Gopher Basketball team had the potential to be a legitimate Sweet 16 team. Last year was an absolute barrage of problems that were out of Pitino's control. No team, with the exception of maybe a Blue Blood program could have handled what we had to deal with last year.

Whether you want to ignore it or not, Pitino has recruited very well with the exception of his first two classes and I would much rather have a Coffey and Oturu over a one and done Humphries. If this year goes according to plan and players stay healthy, we land a good grad transfer, and Matz and Oturu can platoon the center role... I really do believe that we will have a better than .500 record in B10 play and be very much in the picture for a tourney birth and all this talk about diminishing expectations will be put to rest. I have been wrong before, but I would rather be an optimist especially when there is plenty of logical reasons to be optimistic.

I dig where you're coming from, but just to clarify: I was referring to Rickert.
 

I don't see any reason why you would project Minnesota to finish lower than Iowa. The Gophers get Curry and Coffey back from injury, have a better recruiting class coming in, and were a better team (though not saying much) in 2017-2018. Other than that, I can see a reasonable case for projecting Minnesota as low as tenth next year. Pitino lost all benefit of the doubt with his performance in 2016-2017 and guys like Miller and Holtman outperformed expectations. I think there is certainly potential to finish much higher, but this program has been unable to meet its potential more often than not for a long, long time.
 

I find it hardly unlikely this team will be in the NCAA tourney next year. Looks like a bottom half of the conference team and 6 years in that should be the end of Pitino.
 




Assuming health, an attempt to rank Gophers by position group in big ten :
Gopher frontcourt - Near to or at top of big ten
Wings - Middle of big ten, if not better
Point - Near bottom of big ten

Is it possible for us to get to middle of the pack at the point guard position? Is it possible for us to find effective depth at the wing? If the answers to these questions is yes, we should be a threat for a top 4 conference finish.

I think you are way underselling Isaiah. Will he be all conference? No. But he will be a very good B1G point guard. Pitino just needs to get him some help.If you are looking for a comparison, see Simpson at Michigan. Highly rated PG out of Ohio as a freshman. Didn't play well in transitioning to college. Had a really nice sophomore season as his confidence built. All American, no. But a key component on a team in the national championship game.
 

I think you are way underselling Isaiah. Will he be all conference? No. But he will be a very good B1G point guard. Pitino just needs to get him some help.If you are looking for a comparison, see Simpson at Michigan. Highly rated PG out of Ohio as a freshman. Didn't play well in transitioning to college. Had a really nice sophomore season as his confidence built. All American, no. But a key component on a team in the national championship game.

You look at the point guards for the teams that advanced in the NCAAs: consistently good and occasionally spectacular. Isaiah has proven to be occasionally spectacular; he's just got to become consistently good. He'll get there if he works hard and works on the right things.
 


Name the last time that people/including local media were as excited and had as high of expectations about a Gopher basketball season as they were before last year? Those expectations didn't just appear out of thin air...if last years team would have stayed healthy(including Curry) and stayed out of trouble, we had the talent to be a Sweet 16 team. I can't say I ever felt that about any of Monson or Tubby's teams.
 

I think you are way underselling Isaiah. Will he be all conference? No. But he will be a very good B1G point guard. Pitino just needs to get him some help.If you are looking for a comparison, see Simpson at Michigan. Highly rated PG out of Ohio as a freshman. Didn't play well in transitioning to college. Had a really nice sophomore season as his confidence built. All American, no. But a key component on a team in the national championship game.

My rankings are at this point in time. I certainly anticipate a point grad transfer and Washington's improvement will cause this position ranking to improve.
 

Name the last time that people/including local media were as excited and had as high of expectations about a Gopher basketball season as they were before last year? Those expectations didn't just appear out of thin air...if last years team would have stayed healthy(including Curry) and stayed out of trouble, we had the talent to be a Sweet 16 team. I can't say I ever felt that about any of Monson or Tubby's teams.

This.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Name the last time that people/including local media were as excited and had as high of expectations about a Gopher basketball season as they were before last year? Those expectations didn't just appear out of thin air...if last years team would have stayed healthy(including Curry) and stayed out of trouble, we had the talent to be a Sweet 16 team. I can't say I ever felt that about any of Monson or Tubby's teams.

That is 100% true. We return much of the same roster, minus Mason and Lynch. We also gain Curry, Matz, Oturu, Gabe, and potentially 2 others that we don't know about.

When it comes to Oturu, I don't believe there will be a big chunk of time where he isn't contributing mightily. We don't need him to come in and score over 10ppg. What he will bring from the start is a competent center that can rebound and protect the paint, something when didn't have last year with the suspension of Lynch. The simple fact that Gaston or Konate won't be on the court makes the Gophers a better team. The depth in the front court runs very deep and it is something we haven't had in a long time.

If Washington plays how he did the last 3 weeks of the season, this team finishes 2nd or 3rd in the B1G. He brings a completely different dimension to the game compared to Mason. Washington can create his own whenever, and attacks the basket much more than Mason. Also a much more pure passer. The thing that we will miss is the ability of Mason knocking down threes. This is hopefully where we can fill up 1 of the 2 spots with a shooter who has the ability to handle the ball a little bit.

Last years record should not effect the outlook on next years team. Next year we have a deeper team, and that team should be held to high standards as well. Its disappointing that many posters feel that next years team is based off the one we had this year.
 

Name the last time that people/including local media were as excited and had as high of expectations about a Gopher basketball season as they were before last year? Those expectations didn't just appear out of thin air...if last years team would have stayed healthy(including Curry) and stayed out of trouble, we had the talent to be a Sweet 16 team. I can't say I ever felt that about any of Monson or Tubby's teams.

The 2012-13 team was ranked in the top ten for multiple weeks and won a game in the NCAA tourney. We beat a bunch of ranked teams that year including the number 1 team in the country. That team definitely had Sweet Sixteen potential, if not more.

As far as expectations, we fired a coach after he went to three NCAA tournaments in six years and won a game in the NCAA tourney. We have been to one NCAA tourney in the five seasons since then. People seem to be okay with that. If that is not lowered expectations then I don't know what is.
 

No question about it: a kick-butt grad transfer changes the complexion of things greatly. That said, it won't change the fact that we're counting on a freshman starting center, a rusty Curry and a sophomore starting point guard (barring a new starter by grad transfer, which would be discouraging to Washington and ultimately slow his development).

To me the X factor next year is Curry. To quote a movie line from “Father Goose”, ‘He may be a little rusty but they don’t come any sharper.’ If Curry is 100%, look out next year. Curry is a stud if he is back to health.
 

-Wisconsin is very overrated imo and Gard has proven nothing to this point(wouldn't be surprised if they were good next year, but has yet to prove he can win with that program).

I get the idea of “not with his own recruits” thing but did you see who the only team to beat the 3 year Villanova juggernaut in the tournament was? He’s not Bo Ryan but I love seeing your rosy post about “we had the talent to be a sweet 16 team” prior to a dumpster fire finish and then talking about the guy that was a buzzer beater away from the E8 and has already been to 2 sweet 16s hasn’t proven anything.
 

11th is probably accurate if we do not add a point guard who can contribute next year. Pitino has to manage the roster sooo much better. It's not his coaching...it's the number of eligible players available on top of the injuries and suspensions. Any major college team absolutely needs two competent point guards.
I have no idea how much Kimani leaving hurts, other than the only other coach who seems to be able to recruit is Richard. I know Ben works hard but nobody within the program talks about him. Staying reasonably healthy the Gophers need to finish 5 or 6ish to continue on the present course. And I think they will do that if we get another point guard and some one else we expect to play this coming season. You can't compete in the Big Ten with Michael Hurt type talent getting major minutes by default because you have guys who are worse on scholarship or guys on scholarship unavailable to play but healthy like Matz, Reggie, Fitzgerald, Zack etc. We have too many question marks to count on marginal transfers developing while sitting out.
 

I get the idea of “not with his own recruits” thing but did you see who the only team to beat the 3 year Villanova juggernaut in the tournament was? He’s not Bo Ryan but I love seeing your rosy post about “we had the talent to be a sweet 16 team” prior to a dumpster fire finish and then talking about the guy that was a buzzer beater away from the E8 and has already been to 2 sweet 16s hasn’t proven anything.

No, you're right. I should have clarified better, I think Gard can coach, I'm not convinced he can recruit and rum a program yet. I believe he recruited Davison though so we will see if he can continue to get players like that . I think next year will be very telling for them.
 

11th is too low in my opinion.

Murphy should be a pre-season All-B1G player, add in Curry, Oturu, Stockman and Omersa and that is one talented and deep front court.

Coffey and McBrayer are solid B1G players that can defend and score. Outside shooting from the wing is our main concern and there is little proof Hurt and Harris can bring it next year. Kalesheur is just a freshman.

IW is a B1G caliber talent, if he can play like he did the last few games and control turnovers. He will make us a solid team. Definitely need a Transfer or a wright type freshman to come in and at least provide IW a break.

We should be in the top half of the conference if we have no injuries or legal issues.

And yeah, if Pitino doesn't do well he probably deserves to be fired. Lack of oversight on Reggie and the wasting of 8 years of schollies on Diedhou and Konate are pretty damning. Add in the Menage A Guard incident and there is plenty of justification. I hope he does well and keeps his job. Not happy about losing Kimani and his East Coast connections though.
 

The 2012-13 team was ranked in the top ten for multiple weeks and won a game in the NCAA tourney. We beat a bunch of ranked teams that year including the number 1 team in the country. That team definitely had Sweet Sixteen potential, if not more.

As far as expectations, we fired a coach after he went to three NCAA tournaments in six years and won a game in the NCAA tourney. We have been to one NCAA tourney in the five seasons since then. People seem to be okay with that. If that is not lowered expectations then I don't know what is.
Go to the Football Forum to see lower expectations...[emoji6] [emoji41]
 

No, you're right. I should have clarified better, I think Gard can coach, I'm not convinced he can recruit and rum a program yet. I believe he recruited Davison though so we will see if he can continue to get players like that . I think next year will be very telling for them.

He also got Reuvers, and Kobe King, who could be the best of them. this year he also got Currie out of Michigan and last week got Strickland. He was within 15 seconds of 2 elite 8's.
You guys know all too well how injuries affect a team..well he lost 2 starters and a third Davison played with one arm. I think he deserves a pass.
 

He also got Reuvers, and Kobe King, who could be the best of them. this year he also got Currie out of Michigan and last week got Strickland. He was within 15 seconds of 2 elite 8's.
You guys know all too well how injuries affect a team..well he lost 2 starters and a third Davison played with one arm. I think he deserves a pass.

Giving a coach a pass for injuries is not allowed on gopher hole. He should have had similarly talented players ready to step in - definitely a sign of poor recruiting. He gets one more year to prove his worth and then he's out.
 

Giving a coach a pass for injuries is not allowed on gopher hole. He should have had similarly talented players ready to step in - definitely a sign of poor recruiting. He gets one more year to prove his worth and then he's out.

It's funny that this was the sincere (not sarcastic) attitude of most posters when Tubby Smith was the head coach. Now that it's Pitino, the attitude is almost a polar opposite for some reason. Weird.
 




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