Revisiting My Preseason Field of 68: Not My Best Effort

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SelectionSunday

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(posted as Road to Selection Sunday on October 3)

Only pegged 34 of the 68 NCAA qualifiers. I consider the 42, 43 range to be pretty good. Wow, was I off on projecting the B1G's number of bids!

Highlighted teams indicate made NCAA Tournament field.

PRESEASON FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION
America East (1): Vermont

AAC (4): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Temple, Wichita State -- 2 correct

ACC (7): Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech -- 5 correct

ASUN (1): North Florida

Atlantic 10 (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure -- 2 correct

Big East (6): Butler, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier -- 5 correct

Big Sky (1): Montana -- 1 correct

Big South (1): NC Asheville

B1G (8): Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin -- 3 correct

Big XII (5): Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, West Virginia -- 4 correct

Big West (1): UC Irvine

CAA (1): Northeastern

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee

Horizon (1): Oakland

Ivy (1): Princeton

MAAC (1): Monmouth

MAC (1): Ball State

MEAC (1): Coppin State

MVC (1): Illinois State

Mountain West (2): Colorado State, Nevada -- 1 correct

NEC (1): FDU

OVC (1): Belmont

Pac 12 (4): Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, USC -- 2 correct

Patriot (1): Bucknell -- 1 correct

SEC (6): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee -- 5 correct

SoCon (1): Western Carolina

Southland (1): Houston Baptist

SWAC (1): Texas Southern -- 1 correct

Summit (1): ORU

Sun Belt (1): Georgia Southern

WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's -- 1 correct

WAC (1): New Mexico State -- 1 correct
____________________________________
Last 4 In: Colorado State, Connecticut, Marquette, Penn State -- none of these made the tournament

First 4 Out: Maryland, Oregon, Saint Joseph's, Texas A&M -- Texas A&M made the tournament

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (6): Colorado State, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Saint Bonaventure, Temple, Wichita State -- Saint Bonaventure & Wichita State made the tournament as at-larges

Keep An Eye On (16): Arizona State (First 4), College of Charleston (1st round), Georgia, Georgia Tech, Grand Canyon, Harvard, Indiana, La Salle, Oregon State, San Francisco, SMU, Texas Arlington, Texas Tech (at least Sweet 16), UAB, UCF, VCU

Gophers 2017-18 Power 6 Peer Group (like the Gophers, these P6 programs have appeared in 5 NCAA tourneys since 2000): Colorado, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, Texas Tech -- Florida State, Seton Hall, and Texas Tech made the tournament

Destined to Disappoint: Maryland, Oregon, SMU, Texas A&M, TCU -- Texas A&M (Sweet 16) & TCU (1st round) made the tournament

Ready to Make A Big Jump: Georgia Tech, La Salle, Oregon State, Texas Tech, UCF -- only Texas Tech delivered

Sweet 16 Sleepers: Alabama, Nevada, Oakland, Rhode Island, Stanford -- Nevada the only one that made the Sweet 16

Final 4: Arizona, Duke, Michigan State, USC -- only Duke remains

National Champions: Michigan State -- Sparty bounced by Syracuse zone in 2nd round

B1G Predictions
1 Michigan State (1st)
2 Purdue (tied for 2nd)
3 Minnesota (tied for 11th)
4 Northwestern (10th)
5 Michigan (tied for 4th)
6 Iowa (tied for 11th)
7 Wisconsin (9th)
8 Penn State (tied for 6th)
9 Maryland (8th)
10 Indiana (tied for 6th)
11 Illinois (tied for 11th)
12 Ohio State (tied for 2nd)
13 Rutgers (14th)
14 Nebraska (tied for 4th)

So basically, I had MSU, Purdue, Michigan, and Illinois pegged correctly. Was way off on Gophers, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State and Nebraska.
 


SelectionSunday said:
(posted as Road to Selection Sunday on October 3)

So basically, I had MSU, Purdue, Michigan, and Illinois pegged correctly. Was way off on Gophers, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State.
Click to expand...

Nebraska too, though nobody had that.
 


Good call on Wisconsin in the Big 10 standings, had their 1st non-Top 4 finish pegged (since Bo took over). Stinks the Gophers still finished lower.
 


I might have to give this a try next year.

That has to be harder the all heck to do.
 

So selection do you anticipate you will have the gophers in your pre season ncaa tournament list next year?
 

By the way I am not sold we will have enough to do it.
 

SelectionSunday said:
(posted as Road to Selection Sunday on October 3)

Only pegged 34 of the 68 NCAA qualifiers. I consider the 42, 43 range to be pretty good. Wow, was I off on projecting the B1G's number of bids!

Highlighted teams indicate made NCAA Tournament field.

PRESEASON FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION
America East (1): Vermont

AAC (4): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Temple, Wichita State -- 2 correct

ACC (7): Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech -- 5 correct

ASUN (1): North Florida

Atlantic 10 (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure -- 2 correct

Big East (6): Butler, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier -- 5 correct

Big Sky (1): Montana -- 1 correct

Big South (1): NC Asheville

B1G (8): Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin -- 3 correct

Big XII (5): Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, West Virginia -- 4 correct

Big West (1): UC Irvine

CAA (1): Northeastern

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee

Horizon (1): Oakland

Ivy (1): Princeton

MAAC (1): Monmouth

MAC (1): Ball State

MEAC (1): Coppin State

MVC (1): Illinois State

Mountain West (2): Colorado State, Nevada -- 1 correct

NEC (1): FDU

OVC (1): Belmont

Pac 12 (4): Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, USC -- 2 correct

Patriot (1): Bucknell -- 1 correct

SEC (6): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee -- 5 correct

SoCon (1): Western Carolina

Southland (1): Houston Baptist

SWAC (1): Texas Southern -- 1 correct

Summit (1): ORU

Sun Belt (1): Georgia Southern

WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's -- 1 correct

WAC (1): New Mexico State -- 1 correct
____________________________________
Last 4 In: Colorado State, Connecticut, Marquette, Penn State -- none of these made the tournament

First 4 Out: Maryland, Oregon, Saint Joseph's, Texas A&M -- Texas A&M made the tournament

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (6): Colorado State, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Saint Bonaventure, Temple, Wichita State -- Saint Bonaventure & Wichita State made the tournament as at-larges

Keep An Eye On (16): Arizona State (First 4), College of Charleston (1st round), Georgia, Georgia Tech, Grand Canyon, Harvard, Indiana, La Salle, Oregon State, San Francisco, SMU, Texas Arlington, Texas Tech (at least Sweet 16), UAB, UCF, VCU

Gophers 2017-18 Power 6 Peer Group (like the Gophers, these P6 programs have appeared in 5 NCAA tourneys since 2000): Colorado, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, Texas Tech -- Florida State, Seton Hall, and Texas Tech made the tournament

Destined to Disappoint: Maryland, Oregon, SMU, Texas A&M, TCU -- Texas A&M (Sweet 16) & TCU (1st round) made the tournament

Ready to Make A Big Jump: Georgia Tech, La Salle, Oregon State, Texas Tech, UCF -- only Texas Tech delivered

Sweet 16 Sleepers: Alabama, Nevada, Oakland, Rhode Island, Stanford -- Nevada the only one that made the Sweet 16

Final 4: Arizona, Duke, Michigan State, USC -- only Duke remains

National Champions: Michigan State -- Sparty bounced by Syracuse zone in 2nd round

B1G Predictions
1 Michigan State (1st)
2 Purdue (tied for 2nd)
3 Minnesota (tied for 11th)
4 Northwestern (10th)
5 Michigan (tied for 4th)
6 Iowa (tied for 11th)
7 Wisconsin (9th)
8 Penn State (tied for 6th)
9 Maryland (8th)
10 Indiana (tied for 6th)
11 Illinois (tied for 11th)
12 Ohio State (tied for 2nd)
13 Rutgers (14th)
14 Nebraska (tied for 4th)

So basically, I had MSU, Purdue, Michigan, and Illinois pegged correctly. Was way off on Gophers, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State and Nebraska.
Click to expand...

Interesting to look back and see how much Minnesota, Northwestern, and Iowa fell short of expectations; while Nebraska and Ohio State rise was so unexpected. Kind of like the gophs exceeding expectations so much in 2016-2017. Will be interesting to see where experts pick the gophers next season versus where they finish. Is it more likely they are picked to finish high in the standings and disappoint, or more likely they are picked to finish low and then beat expectations?
 




I hit 40 out of 68 this season from my preseason projections. B1G really let me down as well.
 

SelectionSunday said:
No. Right now I have Gophers pegged for 9th in Big 10.
Click to expand...

Big ten next year should be a dog fight? Nebraska loses nothing so would guess they're favorite, along with Maryland who loses very little with great recruiting class.
Most of the rest of the teams seem like their talent level will be somewhat similar. Maybe Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois at the bottom?
 

I don't think anyone could predict the Gophers fortunes...other than we knew there was no depth. I thought Northwestern would be much better...what did happen to them? Ohio State came from no where. I did think Wisconsin was going to struggle mightily. Nebraska over achieved big time. I have no faith in Tim Miles repeating the magic.

Gophers need another point guard who can play or it'll be another long year.
 



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