The 36 At-Larges: 8 Bids Still Available With 3 Days Left

Updated through Thursday, March 8.

This is my final projection of the 36 At-Larges until the wee hours of (Selection) Sunday morning, probably around 2 a.m. give or take an hour. I think projecting this year is a lot tougher than last year, especially with the introduction of the Quadrants 1, 2,3, 4, etc. My "worst-case scenario" goal every year is to miss no more than 2 of the 36. I think that's gonna' be a tall task this year.

My accuracy rate of projecting the at-larges is 94.5% since I started doing this 26 years ago (1991-92 season). My accuracy ate since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 68 teams in 2010-11 is a tick higher at 95.7%.

Thanks for humoring me and following along!

Bold/italic = already earned automatic bid.

Automatic Bid/Highest Remaining Seed (32)
1 Vermont
2 Cincinnati
3 Virginia
4 Lipscomb
5 Rhode Island
6 Xavier
7 Montana
8 Radford
9 Michigan
10 Kansas
11 UC-Davis
12 College of Charleston
13 Old Dominion
14 Wright State
15 Harvard
16 Iona
17 Buffalo
18 Hampton
19 Loyola-Chicago
20 Nevada
21 LIU
22 Murray State
23 Arizona
24 Bucknell
25 Auburn
26 NC-Greensboro
27 Southeastern Louisiana
28 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
29 South Dakota State
30 Louisiana
31 Gonzaga
32 New Mexico State

Locks (28) -- RPI noted in parentheses.
1 Villanova (2)
2 Duke (4)
3 North Carolina (5)
4 Purdue (9): season complete
5 Tennessee (10)
6 Clemson (11)
7 Wichita State (13)
8 Michigan State (15): season complete
9 Kentucky (17)
10 Houston (19)
11 Texas Tech (20)
12 Ohio State (21): season complete
13 Saint Bonaventure (22)
14 TCU (24): season complete
15 Miami (26): season complete
16 Texas A&M (27): season complete
17 West Virginia (28)
18 Arkansas (29)
19 Seton Hall (30): season complete
20 USC (33)
21 UCLA (34)
22 Providence (35)
23 Butler (36)
24 Florida (37)
25 Missouri (41): season complete
26 Alabama (46)
27 Virginia Tech (61): season complete
28 NC State (62): season complete

Just Above The Bubble "In" (4)
1 Middle Tennessee State (32): season complete
2 Saint Mary's (40): season complete
3 K-State (51)
4 Arizona State (65): season complete

Last 4 In
Creighton (42): season complete
Oklahoma (49): season complete
Texas (50): season complete
Florida State (54): season complete

First 4 Out
Syracuse (43): season complete
Marquette (57): season complete
Oregon (63)
Washington (71): season complete

Longshots (8)
1 Louisville (38): season complete
2 Boise State (52): season complete
3 Utah (58): season complete
4 Baylor (64): season complete
5 Mississippi State (67)
6 Notre Dame (68): season complete
7 Penn State (79): season complete
8 Oklahoma State (87): season complete

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (5): Wichita State (13), Houston (19), Saint Bonaventure (22), Middle Tennessee (32), Saint Mary's (40)
___________________________

NIT Automatic Bids
1 Middle Tennessee (32) -- if Blue Raiders don't receive NCAA at-large bid
2 Rider (70)
3 Wagner (110)
4 Northern Kentucky (111)
5 NC-Asheville (131)
6 Florida Gulf Coast (173)

I think Jery Palm had Middle Tennessee out after their horrific loss to Southern Miss and another really bad loss in the last game of the season.

I've seen a couple of projections that have Baylor easily in. I don't get it.

Providence proves themselves to be big game late season wonders again. Pretty impressive.

Even without the Gophers, this is shaping up to be a good tournament with no absolute dominant team, although Puke is looking more of the part than they did earlier.

Holy Man said:

I think Jery Palm had Middle Tennessee out after their horrific loss to Southern Miss and another really bad loss in the last game of the season.

I've seen a couple of projections that have Baylor easily in. I don't get it.

Providence proves themselves to be big game late season wonders again. Pretty impressive.

Even without the Gophers, this is shaping up to be a good tournament with no absolute dominant team, although Puke is looking more of the part than they did earlier.

Click to expand...

MTSU more than anything will be a gut call.

I don't like Baylor's resume at all. Ditto for Louisville and Creighton (other than win over Villanova). Might put Creighton in, but I think they're not nearly as safe as most people think.

Thanks for the update. I was hoping to see Nebraska get in. Are they pretty much out of consideration?

row19gopher said:

Thanks for the update. I was hoping to see Nebraska get in. Are they pretty much out of consideration?

Click to expand...

I kept Nebraska on at-large board for a long time, but never seriously considered the Huskers. Ditto for Penn State. If they get a bid it will be one of the most controversial of all time. There's just nothing there on the resume other than a win over Michigan.

SelectionSunday said:

I kept Nebraska "on my at-large board" for a long time, but never seriously considered the Huskers. Ditto for Penn State. If they get a bid it will be one of the most controversial of all time. There's just nothing there on the resume other than a win over Michigan.

Click to expand...

Penn State sealed their fate with a crappy NC schedule which I was shocked at with how good a team they should have had.

The Huskers were hosed by the unbalanced schedule in the B1G, with limited chances for big wins. It begs the question of whether they would have had better wins if they had more chances, or more losses because they played better teams. I saw them live at MSG and they were positively awful. It would be interesting to see what the historical record is in that 4-5 game is. It does seem like the 5 has an advantage having played the previous day. It was obvious the Huskers had trouble with the environment and never got on track with their jumpers.

Are you factoring in the injured player ND got back recently? Will the committee? I know they used to, but maybe not so much anymore. In any case getting routed by Duke probably didn't help.

howeda7 said:

Are you factoring in the injured player ND got back recently? Will the committee? I know they used to, but maybe not so much anymore. In any case getting routed by Duke probably didn't help.

Click to expand...

Notre Dame wasn't a world-beater when they had Colson. Lost to Ball State and Indiana with him. Notre Dame would be another team if they get a bid the fix is in.

We differ on 2. I have Louisville and Western Kentucky in with Florida St and Arizona St out. I also have Old Dominion in the field right now as the highest remaining C-USA seed, but I won't have both ODU and W Kentucky in the field in my final predictions. As of right now that spot would go to FSU, so in some ways you could say I have FSU in the field.

The only team in your "Lock" category that I might disagree with is Alabama. I think they'll get in even if they lose their next game (that top-5 SOS sure helps), but I just think any team with 15 losses should be sweating a little bit on Sunday.

Last 4 in: Texas, Oklahoma, W Kentucky, Louisville
First 4 out: Florida St, Syracuse, Arizona St, Boise St

4 vs 5 (or 12/13)

Holy Man said:

Penn State sealed their fate with a crappy NC schedule which I was shocked at with how good a team they should have had.

The Huskers were hosed by the unbalanced schedule in the B1G, with limited chances for big wins. It begs the question of whether they would have had better wins if they had more chances, or more losses because they played better teams. I saw them live at MSG and they were positively awful. It would be interesting to see what the historical record is in that 4-5 game is. It does seem like the 5 has an advantage having played the previous day. It was obvious the Huskers had trouble with the environment and never got on track with their jumpers.

Click to expand...

I was curious Holy Man, so I looked it up going only as far back as 2012. Through 2011 under the 11 team format, both the 4 & 5 seeds got Day 1 byes.

As such it is a small sample size. The 4 Seed is 3W/2L vs 5 Seed and won both times the 5 seed did not make it to the Quarter Finals (once each vs the 12 & 13 Seeds.)

Oklahoma really should not make it, as Iowa shouldn't have in 2014. Your recent play should matter at least a little and they have been downright awful since January.