CFN early predictions and breakdowns (Gophers best-case 9-3)

pk2

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From College Football News:

Minnesota Golden Gophers

There’s no excuse not to go bowling with this slate. If the Gophers can beat Fresno State, they’ll almost certainly start 3-0, and getting Indiana and Purdue at home should help. Going on the road to Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin, though, should put a ceiling on the season’s hopes.

Realistic Best Case Record: 9-3
Realistic Worst Case Record: 6-6

http://collegefootballnews.com/2018...-all-130-teams-early-predictions-breakdowns/3

And their full schedule analysis:

2018 Minnesota Golden Gophers Football Schedule Analysis

– The Gophers don’t exactly extend themselves in non-conference play without any battles against Power Five programs, but the Fresno State game is a whole lot nastier now than it appeared to be a few years ago.

They get the newly-independent New Mexico State to start things out, and Miami University to close out the run of pastries – they’re not exactly cupcakes.

– The date with Iowa is a must-win as the lone home date in a rough stretch of three road games in four dates. At least there’s a week off before dealing with the Hawkeyes, but that’s it – it’s a two-month run the rest of the way.

The Nebraska and Wisconsin games are on the road, but Northwestern and Purdue have to come to Minneapolis in back-to-back Novembers weeks.

– The good: Minnesota misses Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State from the East. The bad: It has to go to Ohio State right after the Iowa showdown and just before the trop to Nebraska. On the plus side, having to deal with Maryland and Indiana in interdivisional play isn’t bad.

http://collegefootballnews.com/2018...-analysis-prediction-best-worst-case-scenario
 


From College Football News:

Minnesota Golden Gophers

There’s no excuse not to go bowling with this slate. If the Gophers can beat Fresno State, they’ll almost certainly start 3-0, and getting Indiana and Purdue at home should help. Going on the road to Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin, though, should put a ceiling on the season’s hopes.

Realistic Best Case Record: 9-3
Realistic Worst Case Record: 6-6

http://collegefootballnews.com/2018...-all-130-teams-early-predictions-breakdowns/3

And their full schedule analysis:

2018 Minnesota Golden Gophers Football Schedule Analysis

– The Gophers don’t exactly extend themselves in non-conference play without any battles against Power Five programs, but the Fresno State game is a whole lot nastier now than it appeared to be a few years ago.

They get the newly-independent New Mexico State to start things out, and Miami University to close out the run of pastries – they’re not exactly cupcakes.

– The date with Iowa is a must-win as the lone home date in a rough stretch of three road games in four dates. At least there’s a week off before dealing with the Hawkeyes, but that’s it – it’s a two-month run the rest of the way.

The Nebraska and Wisconsin games are on the road, but Northwestern and Purdue have to come to Minneapolis in back-to-back Novembers weeks.

– The good: Minnesota misses Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State from the East. The bad: It has to go to Ohio State right after the Iowa showdown and just before the trop to Nebraska. On the plus side, having to deal with Maryland and Indiana in interdivisional play isn’t bad.

http://collegefootballnews.com/2018...-analysis-prediction-best-worst-case-scenario



9 wins? What are they high? There is zero talent on this team, or so I've been told repeatedly.
 

Out of the loop: What is the “Nastier” Fresno State comment in reference to?


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Fresno State was 10-4 last year. Three of their 4 losses were to Alabama, Washington, and Boise State in a Mt West rubber match (they also defeated Boise State during the reg season). So, they are not to be discounted as cannon fodder. I don't follow them closely enough to know how much production they lost but I believe their Sr. QB will be back.
 


Out of the loop: What is the “Nastier” Fresno State comment in reference to?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They're legitimately good. They hired Jeff Tedford, Cal's old coach who gave them their only good years in recent memory.

Take a look at any college football rankings and Fresno is way ahead of us...
 

A little surprised their floor is 6-6, until we know more about the QB situation I could see 5 wins being a possibility. 9-3 would be quite a step change and would be very exciting and encouraging for Fleck's tenure!
 

A little surprised their floor is 6-6, until we know more about the QB situation I could see 5 wins being a possibility. 9-3 would be quite a step change and would be very exciting and encouraging for Fleck's tenure!

Yeah there's no sure deal that we fill in our lost players and get better.... I'm concerned, and nervous.
 

Yeah there's no sure deal that we fill in our lost players and get better.... I'm concerned, and nervous.

Glass is half full, not empty. They lost a QB that wasn't buying the culture, now they have 3-4 all in. They had 4 Healthy OL last spring and 13 this spring. Success is all on the OL this year.
 



They're legitimately good. They hired Jeff Tedford, Cal's old coach who gave them their only good years in recent memory.

Take a look at any college football rankings and Fresno is way ahead of us...

Probably playing Fresno State early is a good thing. Remember they won their bowl games beating a Houston in the Hawaii Bowl. But they lost their DC as well as all four starting defensive linemen.
 

A little surprised their floor is 6-6, until we know more about the QB situation I could see 5 wins being a possibility. 9-3 would be quite a step change and would be very exciting and encouraging for Fleck's tenure!

Five wins would be a pretty awful season with this schedule. It's a tough schedule if your goal is to make the cfp (tough road games, no real good out of conference), but a pretty easy one to get bowling with (easy home conference and out of conference).
 

Glass is half full, not empty. They lost a QB that wasn't buying the culture, now they have 3-4 all in. They had 4 Healthy OL last spring and 13 this spring. Success is all on the OL this year.

I don't think there's a half and half as far as odds of improvement though. ;)
 

Probably playing Fresno State early is a good thing. Remember they won their bowl games beating a Houston in the Hawaii Bowl. But they lost their DC as well as all four starting defensive linemen.

I hope so. It deepens on how quick a start we can get going / team playing well. We have looked rusty in non conference in recent years.
 



Six to nine wins? I'll take that!
 

4 wins will be outstanding.
 

These threads always get me looking at schedules. We should win 6-8 games next year.

Wow-Nebraska has a brutal schedule next year facing Michigan, MSU, and OSU in cross over games. They go to Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, and Northwestern. They also play Colorado and Troy(11-2 last year)
 



9-3


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While I agree 9-3 is a good guess at a ceiling, I think things could go much worse than 6-6 if it goes poorly.

The Gophers will almost certainly be trotting out an underclassman who has never thrown a NCAA pass at QB. Add in coaching turnover, potential injuries, emerging teams like Purdue and Maryland on the schedule, and the fact that last year's team wasn't even a .500 edition and there's lots of room for 2018 to go really sideways into the 3 win abyss.
 

I am thrilled we are trotting out a QB that has never thrown a D1 pass verses what we trotted out last year. I hope there is someone on this staff that can coach QBs. No evidence of that last year.
 


I am thrilled we are trotting out a QB that has never thrown a D1 pass verses what we trotted out last year. I hope there is someone on this staff that can coach QBs. No evidence of that last year.

That problem will be solved as soon as they throw their first pass.
 

Well, I thought if things went well we could win 9 games last year. So, it's real hard for me see a scenario we win 9 games this year after last year. I wish I felt different but without getting excited watching a spring practice I'm thinking it could be tough to get to 5 wins again. It's very hard for me to interpret PJ...he seems to be saying we have to wait until 2019 to win. But if Vic isn't the answer and can't beat out PJ's new poster boy Tanner Morgan, then I'm really not sure when we might win.
 

If everything goes right for the Gophers...........(yah, I know)..............................I could see this team maybe winning 7 or 8 games, tops.

Throw in a few injuries at key positions, some growing pains for the new QB's, and some of the typical Gopher luck, and I think you're looking at 5 or 6 wins tops - maybe less.

this is NOT an anti-Fleck post - I'm just trying to be realistic. Last year, I expected too much from this program. This year, I am not expecting anything. If they can cobble together 6 wins and make it to a bowl game - any bowl game - I'll be happy.
 

If everything goes right for the Gophers...........(yah, I know)..............................I could see this team maybe winning 7 or 8 games, tops.

Throw in a few injuries at key positions, some growing pains for the new QB's, and some of the typical Gopher luck, and I think you're looking at 5 or 6 wins tops - maybe less.

this is NOT an anti-Fleck post - I'm just trying to be realistic. Last year, I expected too much from this program. This year, I am not expecting anything. If they can cobble together 6 wins and make it to a bowl game - any bowl game - I'll be happy.

I'm on the same page as you. I'd just be happy with being bowl eligible as I think the extra practices would go a long way in the development of all the youngsters on the roster. Anything more than 6 wins is gravy for me. With that said, 2019 is a different story with how our schedule sets up.
 

A little surprised their floor is 6-6, until we know more about the QB situation I could see 5 wins being a possibility. 9-3 would be quite a step change and would be very exciting and encouraging for Fleck's tenure!

On alliteration alone I predict 6 wins or more! Vic Viramontes = Victory!!
 

I’m a happier fan when I have low expectations. In fact, this is the key to happiness in just about anything IME.

I have low expectations (after moderate last year). Considering who we lost, the questionable QBs and WRs, the very thin secondary and defensive line, and the way the season went last year
I see the ceiling as 6-7 wins. The floor...well.

Obviously this is all conjecture here or elsewhere because we have so much youth and inexperience and really not many All Big Ten type stars returning. There is a ton of promise in the newer layers but I’ll reserve my expectations for a year or two.
 

While I agree 9-3 is a good guess at a ceiling, I think things could go much worse than 6-6 if it goes poorly.

The Gophers will almost certainly be trotting out an underclassman who has never thrown a NCAA pass at QB. Add in coaching turnover, potential injuries, emerging teams like Purdue and Maryland on the schedule, and the fact that last year's team wasn't even a .500 edition and there's lots of room for 2018 to go really sideways into the 3 win abyss.

Are we really at a point where we consider having a crossover game against Maryland as a barrier to our success?
 

Are we really at a point where we consider having a crossover game against Maryland as a barrier to our success?

Have we often been beyond that point....

I don't think the Gophers have been able to look past many opponents. As Jerry used to say on that very topic We're not good enough to do that yet...
 




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